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Direckshun
07-25-2008, 07:26 AM
Thanks to electoral-vote.com.

This year, according to available polling, the states that are probably Republican this year add up to 174 EVs.

But the states that are probably Democratic this year add up to 246 EVs.

That is a devastating difference, folks. You need 270 EVs to win.

There are 118 EVs up for grabs, then, from various battleground states. All Obama needs to win are 24 of those (basically a fifth of the available battleground EVs), and he's going to be President. Hell, all he needs to win is Florida.

The electoral math all but ensures Obama the Presidency at this point.

StcChief
07-25-2008, 09:02 AM
Nevada? going Blue?

Direckshun
07-25-2008, 09:50 AM
Hey Jake... how did you fill out that map?

I'd love to do that myself. Help please.

Direckshun
07-25-2008, 09:53 AM
Eh, screw it, this is me: Obama 325, McCain 213.

'Hamas' Jenkins
07-25-2008, 10:06 AM
All McCain has to do is win Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri and Michigan... He can lose Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, NH and Minnesota.

Secondly, I don't think any Republican would have thought that this race would be so close a year ago. Democrats blew it by nominationg the most liberal, inexperienced person they could find... not gonna work.

My prediction:

You are wildly naive. All McCain has to do is win every big swing state, and he can lose all the smaller states that he is already trailing in, and has trailed in for months. Thanks for the newsflash, Brit Hume. Oh but wait, a single Quinnipiac poll has McCain ahead by two points in Colorado. It must be true because that's what I want to believe!!

tiptap
07-25-2008, 06:45 PM
Quinnipiac University also polled two Senate races. The Colorado poll shows it to be a tied, whereas just about every other poll this year has shown Rep. Mark Udall (D-CO) to be ahead of former representative Bob Schaffer (R). In Minnesota, Quinnipiac has Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) way ahead of comedian Al Franken (D). yesterday we had a Rasmussen poll with Coleman ahead by 1%. What's going on here? In virtually all its polls today, Quinnipiac has results more favorable to the Republicans than the other pollsters. It could be that it has normalized the results to a certain assumed partisan distribution and that it is assuming more Republicans than the other pollsters. The underlying model wasn't released.

http://electoral-vote.com/

tiptap
07-25-2008, 06:47 PM
It is just too early to really to say much about the mood of the country in November. I just suggest that during the primaries the total Democratic vote was so high that it suggests that when people take their masks off after Halloween the voters will vote Democrat down the line.

tiptap
07-25-2008, 07:08 PM
Well the people picked Gore, it was the Electoral College (and help from the SC) that got Bush the first term and lies got us a poor chap for the last 4 years. Voters may pick the President but not always the best man for the job. Yeah we can afford to elect a guy we want to drink beer with again.

And I would like to say I can vote for someone younger than me for the first time. I am all for that.

Ultra Peanut
07-25-2008, 07:32 PM
The fact that CNN has Minnesota in "toss-up" land, after ONE outlying poll (which was followed by a Rasmussen poll putting him at +11), is hilarious.

The Quinnipiac crosstabs are curious all around. In Colorado, Obama has 86% of Democrats, McCain has 87% of Republicans, and Obama wins Independents 47%-39%. The model is clearly set to reflect a big Republican turnout, which makes no sense when going by party ID or any other barometer.

beer bacon
07-25-2008, 07:42 PM
The reason McCain went ahead in that Quinnipiac Colorado poll has more to do with their method of polling then anything else. They don't weight for party identification, instead their party ID for a specific poll is whatever the party ID breakdown is the specific people that are polled. This means polls can fluctuate heavily over short periods of time.

For example, in Quinnipiac's June Colorado general election poll, in which Obama led 49% to 44%, the Republican/Democrat/Independent breakdown by percentages was 29/28/38. In the July poll McCain won 46% to 44% with a party ID breakdown of 34/28/33, a +5% Republican swing at the expense of Independents.

If the July poll had been broken down along the June polls party IDs of 29/28/38, Obama would have won 43.97% to 41.63%. On the other hand, if the June poll had been broken down along the July poll's party ID numbers of 34/28/33 Obama's win would have been much narrower at 45.93% to 44.19%. The most accurate pollers are not the ones with some ingenious method of contacting or questioning the people they poll, they are often the ones who can find the most accurate way to weight polls by party identification.

whoman69
07-26-2008, 11:14 PM
I think the difference will be in who can take a majority of the midwest.

Mr. Kotter
07-26-2008, 11:22 PM
Thanks to electoral-vote.com.

This year, according to available polling, the states that are probably Republican this year add up to 174 EVs.

But the states that are probably Democratic this year add up to 246 EVs.

That is a devastating difference, folks. You need 270 EVs to win.

There are 118 EVs up for grabs, then, from various battleground states. All Obama needs to win are 24 of those (basically a fifth of the available battleground EVs), and he's going to be President. Hell, all he needs to win is Florida.

The electoral math all but ensures Obama the Presidency at this point.

Damn, you aren't too bright are you???

:rolleyes:

With the "Bradley Effect" McCain could pretty easily grab the 98 or more electoral votes needed (out of, even, the 118 that you cite--which is ridiculously high, IMHO) to win....

At this point, I hope you are right (as I am a tepid Obama supporter,) OTOH I think your arrogance could be yet another wake-up call to Democrats everywhere...that their ship, once again (since 1968) is sunk.....

At this point, I hope I am wrong, and you are right; my "gut" says otherwise. :(

Mr. Kotter
07-26-2008, 11:26 PM
Given whoman69's map, consider that NH, MI, CO, NM, NV, and even CO "could" go the other way....if "Bubba" decides he can't vote for Obama....which is, distinctly, possible...

"The Bradley Effect." I hope I'm wrong, and that I'm 'over-estimating' its effect...."


:hmmm:

beer bacon
07-26-2008, 11:49 PM
The Combined Ageism and Bradley Effect could lead to a 300+ EV landslide in favor of Bob Barr. Think about it people...

Mr. Kotter
07-27-2008, 12:00 AM
The Combined Ageism and Bradley Effect could lead 300+ EV landslide in favor of Bob Barr. Think about it people...

Okay, President Carter in 1980 and Kerry in 2004..... :clap:

You two "proved" beer bacon's "theory".... :hmmm:

SBK
07-27-2008, 08:53 AM
I predict there will be 1 or 2 states that everyone watches on election night, late into the night, and that's where things will be decided.

***SPRAYER
07-27-2008, 09:20 AM
The very latest polls in Ohio, Virginia and Coloado have McCain winning.... this election will be no slam dunk for either Obama or McCain.

What about Pennsylvania? I think that whoever wins PA wins the election.

whoman69
07-27-2008, 07:02 PM
Given whoman69's map, consider that NH, MI, CO, NM, NV, and even CO "could" go the other way....if "Bubba" decides he can't vote for Obama....which is, distinctly, possible...

"The Bradley Effect." I hope I'm wrong, and that I'm 'over-estimating' its effect...."


:hmmm:

States that I have going to McCain are hardly a sure thing either. Florida is pretty much a toss up and North Carolina is within reach as is Missouri. I have Indiana going to McCain and that is far from a sure thing, especially if Bayh is the VP choice. Even Montana and North Dakota could fall Obama's way.