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alanm
07-25-2008, 10:33 PM
From The Times
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July 26, 2008
Barack Obama's foreign tour loses him ground back home

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<!-- END: Module - Module - M24 Article Headline with portrait image (b) --><!-- Article Copy module --><!-- BEGIN: Module - Main Article --><!-- Check the Article Type and display accordingly--><!-- Print Author image associated with the Author--><!-- Print the body of the article--><style type="text/css"> div#related-article-links p a, div#related-article-links p a:visited { color:#06c; </style>Barack Obama denied yesterday that he was ignoring the concerns of ordinary Americans while he tours the world, amid signs that the adulation he is receiving abroad has alienated some US voters.
After the Democratic presidential candidate holds meetings with Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron in London today, the last leg of his nine-day international tour, he returns home to a general election campaign with new polls showing him in a tightening race against John McCain, the Republican candidate.
Mr McCain and his surrogates have spent the week seeking to build the impression that Mr Obama’s trip – and particularly his speech to 200,000 in Berlin on Thursday – shows an arrogance and presumptuousness that is disconnected from voters back home, who are most concerned with the faltering US economy.
“I’d love to give a speech in Germany. But I’d much prefer to do it as president of the United States, rather than as a candidate for the office of presidency,” Mr McCain said in the battleground state of Ohio. An aide to the Arizona senator called Mr Obama’s speech “a premature victory lap in the heart of Berlin”.
<!--#include file="m63-article-related-attachements.html"--><!-- BEGIN: Module - M63 - Article Related Attachements --><script type="text/javascript"> <!-- function pictureGalleryPopup(pubUrl,articleId) { var newWin = window.open(pubUrl+'template/2.0-0/element/pictureGalleryPopup.jsp?id='+articleId+'&&offset=0&&sectionName=WorldEurope','mywindow','menubar=0,resizable=0,width=615,height=655'); } //--></script><!-- BEGIN: Comment Teaser Module --><!-- END: Comment Teaser Module --><!-- BEGIN: Module - M63 - Article Related Package --><!-- END: Module - M63 - Article Related Package -->Mr McCain’s campaign has been beset by missteps and bad luck in the past month, and has been dwarfed in terms of media coverage by Mr Obama’s almost flawless audition on the world stage. Yet new surveys show Mr McCain pulling almost even with Mr Obama – a Gallup poll yesterday had Mr Obama leading 45 to 43 per cent – and the Democrat losing ground in several key battleground states.

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<!-- END: Module - M63 - Article Related Attachements --><!-- Call Wide Article Attachment Module --><!--TEMPLATE:call file="wideArticleAttachment.jsp" /--> He has lost a small lead in Colorado, and his ten-point advantage over Mr McCain has dropped to just two in Minnesota.
Although Mr Obama is still favoured to win, other surveys show that many more voters identify with Mr McCain’s “values and background”, and feel they still don’t know Mr Obama. While Mr Obama met Israeli and Palestinian leaders on Wednesday, Mr McCain was holding a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
“For the past two days on talk radio here, pretty much every caller wanted to know why Barack Obama was in Europe and the Middle East rather than talking to people back home about the issues here,” said Andrew Seder, a reporter for the [I]Times Leader in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, who covered the McCain event. Mr Obama defended the trip, saying that persuading foreign leaders to send more troops to Afghanistan could save the US billions of dollars.
At a Paris press conference with Nicolas Sarkozy, the French President, Mr Obama said: “Let me remind everyone. I’m not the president. I’m a US senator.” Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist, said that he believed the trip had been a success, because voters “saw someone acting presidential, and that is one of the biggest thresholds he has to cross.”

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4402753.ece

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Ultra Peanut
07-25-2008, 10:38 PM
I love entire articles built upon polls that were outliers with shaky methodology!

You're right, right-leaning newspaper owned by Rupert Murdoch! He's doomed!

Guru
07-25-2008, 10:46 PM
Speaking of the right? Anyone seen Margaret Hoover on Fox lately. Geez!!!

alanm
07-25-2008, 10:49 PM
The Prophet may have made a mistake in assuming the mantle of the Presidency prematurely.
Just saying :shrug:

HolmeZz
07-25-2008, 10:55 PM
The national polls haven't moved much at all since McCain and Obama both won their nominations. Watching people react to them moving a point or two every other day is hilarious.

Guru
07-25-2008, 10:56 PM
The Prophet may have made a mistake in assuming the mantle of the Presidency prematurely.
Just saying :shrug:

That is kind of what it felt like.

HolmeZz
07-25-2008, 10:57 PM
The Prophet may have made a mistake in assuming the mantle of the Presidency prematurely.
Just saying :shrug:

Did McCain assume the mantle of President by going to South America and giving speeches down there and up in Canada? Or going overseas to the Middle East after he won his nomination?

beer bacon
07-26-2008, 12:02 AM
Barack Obama's foreign tour gains him ground back home

Mr McCain’s campaign has been beset by missteps and bad luck in the past month, and has been dwarfed in terms of media coverage by Mr Obama’s almost flawless audition on the world stage. Yet new surveys show Mr McCain falling behind Mr Obama – a Gallup poll yesterday had Mr Obama leading 48 – 41 and the Democrat gaining ground in several key battleground states. Rasmussen polls showed Mr Obama leading 50-47 in Colorado, and polls also showed him leading by 13 points in Minnesota, four points in Michigan, six points in Pennsylvania, one point in Florida, two points in Virginia, six points in New Mexico, four points in New Hampshire, and 11 points in Wisconsin.

Mr Obama is heavily favoured to win, other surveys show that Mr Obama is leading Mr McCain by six points, and when 3rd party candidates Bob Barr and Ralph Nader are added, Obama's lead over McCain increases to 13 points. Americans also favor Mr Obama's plans for a timetable for withdraw by a 60% to 30% margin. In addition, the survey showed that 44% of Mr Obama's supporters are excited about voting for Obama, while only 14% of Mr McCain's supporters felt the same about Mr McCain. Most Republicans and conservatives would rather vote for a cardboard cut-out of Ronald Regan then their own candidate.

While Mr Obama met Israeli and Palestinian leaders on Wednesday, Mr McCain was holding a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. He also accused Mr Obama of being pro-genocide after reading Mr Obama's note in the guest book at Israel's holocaust museum, of wanting to lose wars for political gain, and he also forgot the basic time-line of the occupation of Iraq when he said the Surge allowed the Anbar Awakening to occur. The Anbar Awakening began months before the Surge. Mr McCain later defended his rewriting of history, adding that the Surge gave the United States the troops needed to protect the sheiks that started the Awakening. Mr McCain forgot to mention that the sheik that started the entire Anbar Awakening was killed by a roadside bomb at the height of the Surge.

While Mr Obama was in Berlin, Mr McCain spent his day at a German fudge haus. He also went to a grocery store where he preceded to awkwardly knock cans of corn off the shelves and gave a rambling Grandpa Simpsonesque speech in-front of displays of DOLE orange juice. Mr McCain went on to adopt Obama's position on a timetable for leaving Iraq. Mr McCain also spoke in support of an international trial for Osama Bin Laden. In another senior moment, Mr McCain forgot that weeks earlier, he had harshly criticized Mr Obama for suggesting the same thing.

At a Paris press conference with Nicolas Sarkozy, the French President, Mr Obama said: “Let me remind everyone. I’m not the president. I’m a US senator.” Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist, said that he believed the trip had been a success, because voters “saw someone acting presidential, and that is one of the biggest thresholds he has to cross.”

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle4402753.ece

SNR
07-26-2008, 12:05 AM
The national polls haven't moved much at all since McCain and Obama both won their nominations. Watching people react to them moving a point or two every other day is hilarious.It's not hilarious at all. It upsets me that people waste time with this bullshit.

jAZ
07-26-2008, 07:46 AM
It wouldn't be unexpected for this tour to cause him a down-tick in the polls. I've heard that discussion for a week or so. The value is that whatever the polls might say today (good or bad), it' gives him reference points to sprinkle in throughout the rest of the campaign. And those points will likely be built into the dialogue of his speeches and adds, etc. He'll name drop now, he'll have photos with world leaders as back drops in future adds. And the media will have bullet points for their own future discussions of forieign policy experience. "Obama has the support of our biggest allies", etc, etc, etc.
They'll have stock footage to use to overlay their disucssions on the topic.

And his numbers will bounce back along the way.

markk
07-26-2008, 07:51 AM
but socialist europe loves him

Ultra Peanut
07-26-2008, 12:47 PM
but socialist europe loves himEUROPE AM HATES OUR FREEDOM

Ultra Peanut
07-26-2008, 01:13 PM
The new Rasmussen (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll) tracker shows McCain losing another point. Golly, this Hussein fella's in deep doodoo.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that the bounce is continuing for Barack Obama. The presumptive Democratic nominee attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 43%. Just four days ago, the candidates were tied at 46% (with leaners). Obama is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, McCain by 55%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 63.3 % chance of winning the White House.

Calcountry
07-26-2008, 02:46 PM
It wouldn't be unexpected for this tour to cause him a down-tick in the polls. I've heard that discussion for a week or so. The value is that whatever the polls might say today (good or bad), it' gives him reference points to sprinkle in throughout the rest of the campaign. And those points will likely be built into the dialogue of his speeches and adds, etc. He'll name drop now, he'll have photos with world leaders as back drops in future adds. And the media will have bullet points for their own future discussions of forieign policy experience. "Obama has the support of our biggest allies", etc, etc, etc.
They'll have stock footage to use to overlay their disucssions on the topic.

And his numbers will bounce back along the way.I believe ads is short for advertisements.

NCarlsCorner2
07-26-2008, 04:56 PM
His message is losing him ground, all the talk has been about Obama and yet he is barely ahead of McCain.

HonestChieffan
07-26-2008, 05:03 PM
Obamas Team has to be very disappointed with the lack of positive moves in the polls. Like it or not they are a guide and the campaigns lean on them to get direction. Its super that the messiah went over seas, read his scripts and no bounce occured.

NCarlsCorner2
07-26-2008, 05:08 PM
Obamas Team has to be very disappointed with the lack of positive moves in the polls. Like it or not they are a guide and the campaigns lean on them to get direction. Its super that the messiah went over seas, read his scripts and no bounce occured.

According to Obama he's losing ground because he has been out of the country for a week, he's been all over the TV for a week so nice try.

***SPRAYER
07-26-2008, 05:19 PM
According to Obama he's losing ground because he has been out of the country for a week, he's been all over the TV for a week so nice try.

I think B.O. fatigue is finally settling in.

During the next four months, America is going to see through this saturation of B.O. 24/7 by the media, and come to the conclusion that it was/is all hype and there really isn't anything to this guy. I'm not sure if that will be enough to get enough votes for McCain, though.

He's not exactly setting the world on fire, either.

Messier
07-26-2008, 05:43 PM
I think B.O. fatigue is finally settling in.

During the next four months, America is going to see through this saturation of B.O. 24/7 by the media, and come to the conclusion that it was/is all hype and there really isn't anything to this guy. I'm not sure if that will be enough to get enough votes for McCain, though.

He's not exactly setting the world on fire, either.

Why will people "see through" him? As far as I can tell he has detailed plans for everything he talks about.

beer bacon
07-26-2008, 06:07 PM
According to Obama he's losing ground because he has been out of the country for a week, he's been all over the TV for a week so nice try.

on 7/22, Tuesday of this week, Rasmussen polling had Obama and McCain polling even at 46/46. Today, the 26th of July, Rasmussen has Obama polling ahead of McCain 49/43.

On 7/23, Wednesday of this week, Gallup polling had Obama leading McCain 45/43. Today, Gallup has Obama leading 48/41.

Even so, Obama could continue to build on his lead, or he could fall back to a tie with McCain. Either way, these polls don't really shit in July. They mostly serve to give the 24 hours news network something they can fill a couple hours with.

HolmeZz
07-26-2008, 06:07 PM
Where has he lost ground again? He's up 6 and 7 points in Rasmussen and Gallup, which are the two biggest leads I can remember him holding in both polls at the same time.

beer bacon
07-26-2008, 06:13 PM
Where has he lost ground again? He's up 6 and 7 points in Rasmussen and Gallup, which are the two biggest leads I can remember him holding in both polls at the same time.

Seven points in the Gallup is tied with Obama's largest lead ever over McCain. He held a seven point over McCain for a short time in May after Hillary suspended her campaign.

In Rasmussen's tracking polls, Obama has had a bigger lead on McCain twice. The first was 6/08 when he had a 50/43 lead, and the second was 6/22 when Obama had a 49/42 lead.

Guru
07-26-2008, 06:25 PM
I call for the entire nation to NOT vote. NOBODY. NADA.

HolmeZz
07-26-2008, 06:28 PM
Seven points in the Gallup is tied with Obama's largest lead ever over McCain. He held a seven point over McCain for a short time in May after Hillary suspended her campaign.

In Rasmussen's tracking polls, Obama has had a bigger lead on McCain twice. The first was 6/08 when he had a 50/43 lead, and the second was 6/22 when Obama had a 49/42 lead.

Yup. And now the two polls aren't contradicting one another.

Frankie
07-26-2008, 06:31 PM
Barack Obama's foreign tour loses him ground back home

I haven't read all the replies, and somebody might have pointed this out already. But polls are quite unfirm and unreliable at this time of the election season. My guess is this underlines Economy as a major issue this year, and by being out of the country he has not addressed domestic issues in the last week. When he comes back and talks about those, I think his numbers will creep back up again. The trip, IMO will help him in the long run though as it leaves an image of international statesmanship in the voters memory. Something that his image sadly lacked.

penchief
07-26-2008, 06:35 PM
but socialist europe loves him

To listen to some of you talk about our allies, you'd think that the people of the United States were the only "freedom-loving" democratized people in the history of the world.

Unfortunately, considering the fascist turn our government has taken in recent years I would say that we might currently be less a freedom-loving people than some of those other people that you righties love to belittle and make fun of so much.

beer bacon
07-26-2008, 06:37 PM
I call for the entire nation to NOT vote. NOBODY. NADA.

Don't vote NOBODY. Vote NOBAMA. Vote McCain/DOLE Orange Juice 2008.

***SPRAYER
07-26-2008, 07:02 PM
Why will people "see through" him? As far as I can tell he has detailed plans for everything he talks about.


So did Al Gore and John Kerry.

Anybody with enough money behind him can set up a bitchin' website with "detailed plans" about everything they talk about.

It comes down to whether or not people think it's all hype. And quite frankly, B.O. is still wet behind the ears to be talking such a big game. What has the guy really accomplished in his life that makes him ready to POTUS? He's done nothing in the business world. In education, he excelled. Politically, he looks to me like an opportunist---

He won an election as an Illinois state senator in 1996 in a very left wing district, with the blessing of two very shady characters, William Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn.

In 2000, he made a run at US Congress and got his head handed to him by Bobby Rush. Turned out to be a blessing in disguise, because that made him available to run for a US Senate seat in 2004. And how convenient the incumbent Republican Jack Ryan was derailed by a sex scandal.

So now he's running for POTUS.

He just keeps working his way up the food chain here, and He's not leaving too much of a tangible resume in his wake.

So yeah, he talks a good game, but he doesn't have any actions to back it up.

beer bacon
07-26-2008, 07:22 PM
I have really loved all the "experienced" bullshit talk this election cycle. People have short memories. Typically, candidates that have spent decades in congress make pretty horrible Presidential congress, since it is easy to portray them as Washington insiders.

***SPRAYER
07-26-2008, 07:23 PM
I have really loved all the "experienced" bullshit talk this election cycle. People have short memories. Typically, candidates that have spent decades in congress make pretty horrible Presidential congress, since it is easy to portray them as Washington insiders.

Senators in general make shitty candidates. Too bad we have two to choose from.

beer bacon
07-26-2008, 07:27 PM
Senators in general make shitty candidates. Too bad we have two to choose from.

McCain of 2000 still would have been a good candidate when his actions, at least in a relative sense, still backed up his maverick persona. The McCain that sold his soul to the neocon agenda after he lost the 2000 primary is a damn poor candidate.

Obama is actually an excellent candidate despite the opinion of the 27%ers that declared kanly on him.

***SPRAYER
07-26-2008, 07:34 PM
McCain of 2000 still would have been a good candidate when his actions, at least in a relative sense, still backed up his maverick persona. The McCain that sold his soul to the neocon agenda after he lost the 2000 primary is a damn poor candidate.



Be more specific. What "actions" backed up his maverick persona?

Obama is actually an excellent candidate despite the opinion of the 27%ers that declared kanly on him

You won't get any argument from me, Obama is an excellent politician. His meteoric rise in so short a period of time speaks for itself. He was able to derail Hillary's machine---

We are going to find out soon enough if he can finish the deal. A part of me hold out hope that he can be pragmatic. But another part of me is worried about who he is beholden to once he gets the keys to kingdom, while another part worries about how he would react to something like 9-11.

BucEyedPea
07-26-2008, 07:52 PM
I call for the entire nation to NOT vote. NOBODY. NADA.

Sounds good to me!

beer bacon
07-26-2008, 07:59 PM
McCain on abortion

In 1999, McCain was in New Hampshire, campaigning for the GOP nomination as a moderate. He proclaimed himself a pro-life candidate, but told reporters that “in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade.” He explained that overturning Roe would force “women in America to [undergo] illegal and dangerous operations.” Yesterday, campaigning for the GOP nomination as a conservative, McCain said the opposite.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me ask one question about abortion. Then I want to turn to Iraq. You’re for a constitutional amendment banning abortion, with some exceptions for life and rape and incest.

MCCAIN: Rape, incest and the life of the mother. Yes.

STEPHANOPOULOS: So is President Bush, yet that hasn’t advanced in the six years he’s been in office. What are you going to do to advance a constitutional amendment that President Bush hasn’t done?

MCCAIN: I don’t think a constitutional amendment is probably going to take place, but I do believe that it’s very likely or possible that the Supreme Court should — could overturn Roe v. Wade, which would then return these decisions to the states, which I support…. Just as I believe that the issue of gay marriage should be decided by the states, so do I believe that we would be better off by having Roe v. Wade return to the states.

The old McCain didn’t want an amendment and didn’t want Roe overturned. The new McCain completely disagrees with the old McCain.

BEFORE

McCain 8/24/99: "But certainly in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade, which would then force X number of women in America to [undergo] illegal and dangerous operations."

AFTER

McCain 2/18/07: "I do not support Roe versus Wade. It should be overturned"

McCain criticized TV preacher Jerry Falwell as “an agent of intolerance” in 2002, but has since decided to cozy up to the man who said Americans “deserved” the 9/11 attacks. (Indeed, McCain has now hired Falwell’s debate coach.

McCain on Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy

McCain used to oppose Bush’s tax cuts for the very wealthy, but he is now in favor of them.

BEFORE

McCain 5/26/01: "I cannot in good conscience support a tax cut in which so many of the benefits go to the most fortunate among us, at the expense of middle class Americans who most need tax relief."

AFTER

In 2006 McCain votes to extend Bush tax cuts

McCain used to think that Grover Norquist was a crook and a corrupt shill for dictators. Then McCain got serious about running for president and began to reconcile with Norquist.

McCain and torture

McCain took a firm line in opposition to torture, and then caved to White House demands.

McCain 11/16/07: "One of the things that kept us going when I was in prison in North Vietnam was that we knew that if the situation were reversed, that we would not be doing to our captors what they were doing to us"

"I want to tell you. Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney all think it is O.K. They have one thing in common. They don’t understand the military and the culture of this nation. If they did, they could never condone such behavior."

McCain voted against a ban on CIA torture.

McCain gave up on his signature policy issue, campaign-finance reform, and won’t back the same provision he sponsored just a couple of years ago.

McCain was against presidential candidates campaigning at Bob Jones University before he was for it.

McCain on campaign finance reform

BEFORE

McCain: "I'm the only one special interests don't give any money to."

AFTER

McCain's campaign manager and many key campaign officials are telecom lobbyists, who have given at least $765,000 to his campaign (and that's just one special interest)

BEFORE

McCain author of McCain Feingold amendment, limiting use of soft money in campaigns.

AFTER

McCain likely in violation of campaign finance laws after accepting primary public funds. He then got on multiple state primary ballots for free under the condition that he had accepted said public fundraising, and he also used public funding as collateral for a bank loan for his campaign. McCain was not punished for any of this since Bush would not appoint enough members to the FEC Commission so that they could investigate and pass judgment on any campaign violations.

McCain on Iraq

Iraq

BEFORE

McCain 9/29/02: “We’re not going to get into house-to-house fighting in Baghdad. We may have to take out buildings, but we’re not going to have a bloodletting of trading American bodies for Iraqi bodies.”

McCain 1/22/03: “But the point is that, one, we will win this conflict. We will win it easily.” [ThinkProgress]

AFTER

McCain: 1/4/07: "When I voted to support this war, I knew it was probably going to be long and hard and tough, and those that voted for it and thought that somehow it was going to be some kind of an easy task, then I’m sorry they were mistaken. Maybe they didn’t know what they were voting for."

The Estate Tax

BEFORE

"I am concerned that repeal of the estate tax would provide massive benefits solely to the wealthiest and highest-income taxpayers in the country. A Treasury Department study found that almost no estate tax has been paid by lower- and middle-income taxpayers. But taxes have been paid on the estates of people who were in the highest 20% of the income distribution at the time of their death. It found that 91% of all estate taxes are paid by the estates of people whose annual income exceeded $190,000 around the time of their death."

AFTER

"Another of my disagreements with Senator Obama concerns the estate tax, which he proposes to increase to a top rate of 55 percent. The estate tax is one of the most unfair tax laws on the books, and the first step to reform is to keep it predictable and keep it low."

Wiretaps

BEFORE

"There are some areas where the statutes don’t apply, such as in the surveillance of overseas communications. Where they do apply, however, I think that presidents have the obligation to obey and enforce laws that are passed by Congress and signed into law by the president, no matter what the situation is."

AFTER

McCain spokesman: "Neither the administration nor the telecoms need apologize for actions that most people, except for the A.C.L.U. and trial lawyers, understand were constitutional and appropriate in the wake of the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001,”

Immigration Reform

#1

BEFORE

McCain introduces bill on immigration reform.

AFTER

January 30, 2008, when asked if he would vote for his own bill: ""No, I would not, because we know what the situation is today. The people want the borders secured first.""

BEFORE

May 22, 2008: "[We must enact comprehensive immigration reform. We must make it a top agenda item if we don’t do it before, and we probably won’t, a little straight talk, as of January 2009."

AFTER

National Review: "Team McCain tells me the senator’s comments were poorly worded. There’s been no discussion within the campaign of altering their stance on illegal immigration, and as far as everyone on the campaign is concerned, the policy is still, ’secure the border first.’"


Offshore drilling

BEFORE

1999 campaign: McCain opposes offshore drilling

AFTER

McCain 6/15/08: ""There are areas off our coasts that should be open to exploration and exploitation, and I hope we can take the first step by lifting the moratoria."

Ultra Peanut
07-27-2008, 06:06 PM
OH NO MR BILL

http://i34.tinypic.com/2q0sjf9.gif

Direckshun
07-27-2008, 09:18 PM
Yeah, I'm reading the same thing as UP.

www.electoral-vote.com:

Gallup has him ahead 48% to 41% (was 45% to 43% before the trip). Rasmussen has him ahead 49% to 43% (was tied at 46%). An NBC/WSJ poll has Obama on top 47% to 41%. A 5% win in the popular vote will almost assuredly result in a landslide in the electoral college.