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View Full Version : Elections GALLUP SHOCKER: McCain 49, Obama 45


recxjake
07-28-2008, 03:16 PM
1

ROYC75
07-28-2008, 03:19 PM
Geraldo last night reported it to be 49 - 41 in favor of Obama.

markk
07-28-2008, 03:19 PM
Gallup isn't polling enough germans.

Bowser
07-28-2008, 03:19 PM
...

noa
07-28-2008, 03:20 PM
PRINT 'EM!

Carlota69
07-28-2008, 03:21 PM
...

ROFL

CNN poll of polls has it 45% Obama 39% McCain..FWIW

beer bacon
07-28-2008, 03:22 PM
Geraldo last night reported it to be 49 - 41 in favor of Obama.

That was the Gallup Tracking Poll. This is a poll specifically financed by USA Today.

This was a poll of 791 people. Obama won registered voters 47-44, and McCain won likely voters, a filter designed specifically for this poll, 49-45. That is about a 70 person swing in favor of McCain between the two.

The last national poll that showed McCain up was a USA Today/Gallup poll at the beginning of May.

noa
07-28-2008, 03:23 PM
You guys, seriously, a lot of you are writing this off. You don't get it. This is it. This means its over. The thread title is in ALL CAPS!!!!

markk
07-28-2008, 03:24 PM
Obama won registered voters 47-44, and McCain won likely voters, a filter designed specifically for this poll, 49-45. That is about a 70 person swing in favor of McCain between the two.


"registered voters" always leans democratic. When they narrow it to "likely voters", it tightens up. That happens in every poll. They didn't just invent "likely voters".

the significance of that 'filter' is that no poll other than "likely voters" is worth reading.

SNR
07-28-2008, 03:24 PM
I just took a poll. It was really big, too. Felt good. Raiduhs

Bowser
07-28-2008, 03:25 PM
I just took a poll. It was really big, too. Felt good. Raiduhs

Gallup has it 45-39 in favor of horrendous smell.

Carlota69
07-28-2008, 03:26 PM
I just took a poll. It was really big, too. Felt good. Raiduhs

Did you use lube?

markk
07-28-2008, 03:26 PM
Monday, July 28, 2008
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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is fading. Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45%. Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 56% of voters. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

Tracking results are based upon nightly telephone interviews with 1,000 Likely Voters and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Following his speech in Berlin, Obama enjoyed two very strong nights of polling on Thursday and Friday. His lead grew to six-points for results released on Saturday (see recent daily results). However, polling on Saturday and Sunday showed the candidates much closer with single-day results similar to polling from before the Berlin speech.

Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. See other recent demographic highlights on Election 2008. Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.


It's interesting to me that McCain has a higher percentage of his own party than Obama does at this point. So much, I guess, for conservatives not supporting him.

They might be grumbling but they will be there to answer the bell.

beer bacon
07-28-2008, 03:32 PM
"registered voters" always leans democratic. When they narrow it to "likely voters", it tightens up. That happens in every poll. They didn't just invent "likely voters".

the significance of that 'filter' is that no poll other than "likely voters" is worth reading.

The model that each polling firm is based on various factors they think are important to determine who is likely to vote. It isn't something objectivel like registered voters. It is subjective, and it is much easier to manipulate. Whoever at USA Today or Gallup that decided the criteria for likely voters had to make value judgments on what determines a likely voter.

HolmeZz
07-28-2008, 03:36 PM
Gallup has Obama up like 8 points.

USAToday/Gallup has had McCain up in 2 of their last 3 polls, the only polls that have had McCain ahead in months.

Radar Chief
07-28-2008, 03:36 PM
...
:LOL:

markk
07-28-2008, 03:37 PM
The model that each polling firm is based on various factors they think are important to determine who is likely to vote. It isn't something objectivel like registered voters. It is subjective, and it is much easier to manipulate. Whoever at USA Today or Gallup that decided the criteria for likely voters had to make value judgments on what determines a likely voter.

They often just say "how likely are you to vote? will vote, likely, neither likely nor unlikely, unlikely, or will not vote".

I am greatly amused by the trying to explain away 'likely voters' which i the entry level for any poll to be considered as worth anything.

beer bacon
07-28-2008, 03:39 PM
The last USA Today/Gallup poll before this had Obama up 48%-42% among RVs and 50%-44% among LVs with 1,460 people polled. When USA Today/Gallup put the RVs through their filter for LVs, Obama lost about 46 and McCain lost about 37.

In this last poll Obama led RVs 47-44 but lost LVs 49-45 with 791 total people polled. When the RVs were filtered for LVs, Obama lost about 70 and McCain lost about 8.

StcChief
07-28-2008, 03:41 PM
It's interesting to me that McCain has a higher percentage of his own party than Obama does at this point. So much, I guess, for conservatives not supporting him.

They might be grumbling but they will be there to answer the bell.

the silent majority will come thru "again" and frustrate the Libs

markk
07-28-2008, 03:43 PM
the silent majority will come thru "again" and frustrate the Libs

mainstream conservatives don't shout at people on the internet, they don't protest things, they've got better things to do. but they will show up and vote. I have always thought it was quite unlikely that they would stay home just because they are lukewarm on john mccain. they respect him despite differences, for the most part. they can deal with someone they respect and disagree with, as long as they are worthy of respect.

This is a problem, to me. I dont want Republicans to be the labour party here while the democrats turn into the ultra liberal party, and conservatism goes unrepresented nationally, so the choices are permanently liberal and ultra liberal. If the Republican party can win by nominating centrists that's what they will do. It's not good if you want them to win and nominate conservatives.

recxjake
07-28-2008, 03:45 PM
Gallup tracking is RV. This is LV.

beer bacon
07-28-2008, 03:46 PM
They often just say "how likely are you to vote? will vote, likely, neither likely nor unlikely, unlikely, or will not vote".

I am greatly amused by the trying to explain away 'likely voters' which i the entry level for any poll to be considered as worth anything.

Actually, that isn't the only thing they consider:

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/07/gains-for-mccai.html

Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment," because Election Day is still 100 days away, but that the likely-voter result suggests that it may be possible for McCain to energize Republicans and turn them out this fall.

Who is a likely voter? In this poll, Frank says, that was determined by how much thought people have given to the election, how often they say they vote and whether they plan to vote in the election in November.

markk
07-28-2008, 03:47 PM
Actually, that isn't the only thing they consider:

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/07/gains-for-mccai.html

Who is a likely voter? In this poll, Frank says, that was determined by how much thought people have given to the election, how often they say they vote and whether they plan to vote in the election in November.

So, is what you are saying that how often someone votes, if they say they will vote, those things are not good indicators of who will actually vote?

jAZ
07-28-2008, 03:48 PM
I found this the other day and it seems somewhat relevant to this thread.

Thought it was an interseting read and from a lefty-magazine no less.

http://dir.salon.com/story/tech/feature/2004/10/06/polling/index.html

In polls we trust?
Bush leads by 10 points. No, wait, Kerry's up by 5. No, Nader's on top! OK -- that's not true, but in the ever crazier world of election polls, who knows what's next?

By Farhad Manjoo

Oct 6, 2004 | On Sept. 17, the Gallup Organization, the polling industry's oldest and most respected firm, released a survey devastating to the prospects of John Kerry's campaign for the presidency. After interviewing more than a thousand people, the company determined that Americans "likely" to vote in November preferred George W. Bush to Kerry by a 13-point margin -- 55 percent to 42 percent.

Bush's lead in the poll marked "the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year," reported USA Today, which, along with CNN, is one of the main media sponsors of the Gallup Poll. The paper added: "The boost Bush received from the Republican convention has increased rather than dissipated, reshaping a race that for months has been nearly tied."

At the time, a number of other polls were suggesting a much closer race, though all gave Bush a lead among likely voters: A survey by the firm ICR had him up by 8 percent, one by the New Democrat Network showed Bush ahead by 5, and Democracy Corps, the political strategy organization run by a group of former Clinton strategists, put Bush's lead at just 1 percent.

Left-wing bloggers immediately suspected something was amiss with Gallup's apparently aberrant results, and one of them, Steve Soto of the Left Coaster, asked Gallup's representatives for a more detailed explanation of what kinds of voters Gallup considered "likely" to go to the polls on Election Day. Gallup courteously sent Soto a reply, one that convinced him, and Democrats all over the Web, that the firm's polls were rigged.

Gallup's survey, it turned out, included a large number of Republicans -- about 40 percent of the people polled identified themselves as being in the GOP, a number far higher than the Republican share of voters in recent presidential elections. Of course Gallup's poll was showing a huge Bush win, Democrats cried -- the company was calling too many Republicans! The brewing lefty anger at Gallup hit a fever pitch on Thursday, when MoveOn.org, the liberal advocacy group, purchased a full-page ad in the New York Times denouncing Gallup's methodology. "Why does America's top pollster keep getting it wrong?" the ad asked in bazillion-point type. It also noted that George Gallup Jr., the son of the Gallup Organization's founder and a longtime executive of the firm, is "a devout evangelical Christian." MoveOn didn't specify why that was important, but the implication was clear: Gallup is on George W. Bush's side in this election.

Is Gallup's poll pulling for Bush? The short answer is no; polling experts, even Democratic polling experts, consider Gallup transcendently nonpartisan, one of the survey industry's straightest shooters. Several pollsters say they resent MoveOn's attack on Gallup. But there's a more important side to the kerfuffle over the Gallup Poll, one that lays bare not only legitimate questions over Gallup's methodology but also, more generally, the possible shortcomings of all election polls as well as the mistakes the public and the media make in interpreting them. In addition, there are many reasons, these days, to be broadly suspicious of the truth according to pollsters. Not the least of them is that an increasingly large share of the population fails to respond to pollsters' calls (a phenomenon that may be responsible for Gallup's odd Sept. 17 poll results) and are possibly evading surveyors altogether by using cellphones and caller I.D. systems. In a tight race, these concerns are more consequential; and the polling industry sees no good way around the problems in the long run.

We live, today, in an era of polling ubiquity. In the 2004 election, we'll probably have more polls from more organizations over more topics than we've ever had before, and the public will enjoy far greater access to these polls than in the past. The many polls dictate media coverage and campaign strategy, determining from week to week and day to day how journalists and insiders call the race -- not only who's up and who's down but why, how, where and what they should do about it.

Indeed, right now, a new Gallup Poll, released Sunday, shows the presidential race tied, with Bush and Kerry at 49 percent among likely voters. Other polls this week variously show Kerry leading, Bush leading, or neither. What should you make of those numbers? Perhaps the best thing to do is resist their pull.

This is page 1 of 4...there's more at the link.

beer bacon
07-28-2008, 03:49 PM
So, is what you are saying that how often someone votes, if they say they will vote, those things are not good indicators of who will actually vote?

What I am saying is that LVs is subjective while RVs are objective. Trying to poll for LVs is pretty pointless this far out.

jAZ
07-28-2008, 03:50 PM
So, is what you are saying that how often someone votes, if they say they will vote, those things are not good indicators of who will actually vote?

Those people will show up in the final election results, but they don't equate to the demographics of the final voters necessarily.

'Hamas' Jenkins
07-28-2008, 04:12 PM
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Images/gallup-Jul28.jpg

Nightfyre
07-28-2008, 04:22 PM
How is the Gallup Shocker different from the regular one?

Ultra Peanut
07-28-2008, 04:29 PM
How is the Gallup Shocker different from the regular one?I'm guessing it's different in that it's an outlier.

Nightfyre
07-28-2008, 04:30 PM
How is the Gallup Shocker different from the regular shocker?

FMP.

memyselfI
07-28-2008, 04:31 PM
NObama spent a helluva lot of money and created a big ole spectacle so for him not to get a substantial and sustainable bounce means his trip would be a big ole bust. ROFL

SBK
07-28-2008, 04:32 PM
All they need to do is poll people at home during the day. Then Obama would be way up while the Republicans are all at work.

Ultra Peanut
07-28-2008, 04:34 PM
NObama spent a helluva lot of money and created a big ole spectacle for him not to get a substantial and sustainable bounce means his trip was a big ole bust. ROFLHe didn't need a bounce from the trip. It will pay for itself tenfold come this fall.

That being said, GALLUP seems to indicate that he got and retained one. Today's (http://www.gallup.com/poll/109126/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-40.aspx) tracker has it at 48-40 for Obama, but by all means, put all of your faith into the ONE poll that gives the result you're happy with.

http://i38.tinypic.com/xlfiic.gif

I mean, things must be going swimmingly if McCain's already re-doubling (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/27/AR2008072701445.html) an effort that Republican strategists (http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/prominent_gop_strategist_to_me.php) have described as "churlish and unlike McCain, and hardly will resonate with the swing voters who are going to decide this election," and "Insane... nagging and off-putting."

memyselfI
07-28-2008, 05:52 PM
He didn't need a bounce from the trip. It will pay for itself tenfold come this fall.

That being said, GALLUP seems to indicate that he got and retained one. Today's (http://www.gallup.com/poll/109126/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-40.aspx) tracker has it at 48-40 for Obama, but by all means, put all of your faith into the ONE poll that gives the result you're happy with.



I am not putting my faith in anything. I don't think NObama will win in the Fall and the more we see McCain hanging around in the polls the more likely it will be that NObama will not win.

McCain had a terrible week on the surface last week and yet is still within a few points of NObama and did not lose much in the polls given the nonstop favorable fawning over NObama.

whoman69
07-28-2008, 07:43 PM
Fishy at best. fivethirtyeight.com points out for this pole to be believable we have to accept that 16% of registered Obama supports will not vote while only 2% of McCain's voters are not voting. It would also mean that Obama leads in unlikely voters 61% to 7%.
Gallup/USA has been one of the most volitile polls out there tracking trends. "Much of the reported variation in candidate preference reported by Gallup in that election is not due to actual voter shifts in preference but rather to changes in the composition of Gallupís likely voter pool. The findings highlight dangers of relying on samples of likely voters when polling well before Election Day."
http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/68/4/588?ijkey=053EosjdTO0oc&keytype=ref

SBK
07-28-2008, 08:18 PM
Fishy at best. fivethirtyeight.com points out for this pole to be believable we have to accept that 16% of registered Obama supports will not vote while only 2% of McCain's voters are not voting. It would also mean that Obama leads in unlikely voters 61% to 7%.
Gallup/USA has been one of the most volitile polls out there tracking trends.

Under this logic aren't all polls fishy at best? You'd have to take the premise that 850 'likely' voters are going to represent what 110-120 million actual voters are going to do?

The only thing polls are good for are internet arguments.

Ultra Peanut
07-28-2008, 11:23 PM
Under this logic aren't all polls fishy at best? You'd have to take the premise that 850 'likely' voters are going to represent what 110-120 million actual voters are going to do?

The only thing polls are good for are internet arguments.To some degree, sure, but there's still a big difference between solid methodology and stuff like the USA Today poll.

Guru
07-29-2008, 04:07 AM
Polls are going to get more and more unreliable as some people like to fug with the pollsters by giving false and misleading data. I know if they call my house, my answers will be all over the place.

If memory serves, the polls that are done within 2 weeks of elections are generally accurate though. People start to get more serious about things then.

Calcountry
07-29-2008, 12:26 PM
Where the Heck is Rain Man when you need good polling.