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Direckshun
07-29-2008, 02:50 PM
Just so you know.

The Senate

Senate currently has:

49 Democrats
49 Republicans
2 Independents, both caucus with the Democrats

There are 35 seats up for grabs this coming election. Only 12 of those are Democratic seats (none from retiring, so all will feature Dem incumbents), and 23 are Republican seats (5 are retiring, so only 18 feature GOP incumbents).

Based on the most current polling (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/Maps/Jul29-s.html), if the election was held today, all of the Democratic seats would hold, and the Republicans would fork over 6 of their 23 available seats.

The future Senate projection, as it stands now, will be:

55 Democrats
43 Republicans
2 Independents, both caucusing with the Democrats

The House

House currently has:

233 Democrats
202 Republicans

There are 33 members of the House retiring, 7 of them Democrats, 26 of them Republican. Three incumbents lost in the primaries, 2 of them Republican, 1 of them Democrat. So the Democrats will field 225 incumbents, and the Republicans will only field 174.

According to Cook (http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/house/chart.php), Rothenberg (http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/07/2008-house-ratings.html), and CQ Politics (http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house), there are many tossup states. But all Democratic seats could be held, while at least 5 Republican seats could be taken by Democrats, if elections were held today.

So the future House projection, as it stands now, would be:

238 Democrats
197 Republicans