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View Full Version : Elections Rumor: Obama's veep list down to three, plus one dark horse.


Direckshun
07-29-2008, 04:02 PM
In all fairness, Ambinder predicted that McCain was going to unveil his VP choice by now, so he doesn't have a great track record.

But there's an interesting thought.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/sebelius_kaine_bayh_biden.php

Sebelius, Kaine, Bayh, Biden

The following three Democrats are being vetted by Eric Holder and Caroline Kennedy and there is independent evidence that Obama is taking a serious look at them:

Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Gov. Tim Kaine, Sen. Evan Bayh.

Additionally, allies of Sen. Joe Biden say that he is under serious consideration, although he is not being subjected to the same level of vetting.

The huffing and puffing over Kaine is the result of Kaine's allies getting excited...and confirming what has been reported here and elsewhere, which is that Kaine is being vetted and that Obama is seriously considering him. Based on discussions with high-level Obama aides, I do not get the impression that Obama has made up his mind yet. These aides do say that Obama is narrowing his choices.

Now -- the way to look at these names, I think, is to analyze what picking each would say about the Obama presidency and what he expects in a vice president.

Sebelius and Kaine are both governing choices, not campaign choices. They're not going to match Obama's enthusiasm levels; they're not going to do all that well at the VP debates; they're not even going to solve political problems (even Kaine). But they are solid; they are centrist-in-style; they are Washington outsiders; they know how to balance budgets and deal with Republicans. As an historical analogy, think Clinton's choice of Gore.

Choosing Biden or Bayh would put in the White House strong and knowledgeable legislators who would be expected to do heavy lifting with allies and adversaries. both would do well at the debates; Biden is flashy and might upstage Obama, but he'd be the best sheer campaigner and his selection would bring a jolt of enthusiasm to the Democratic ticket (as if it needed more). The downside here is the same as the upside: the focus will be on the ticket and not on Obama, per se. Bayh and Biden would call attention to Obama's manifest lack of engagement with American foreign policy. And Biden, in particular, would face a prolonged period of press recapitulation. (And could Obama trust him to keep his mouth shut?)

patteeu
07-29-2008, 04:21 PM
Biden makes no sense to me. McCain is praying for a Sebelius selection. Surely it will be Bayh or Kaine.

markk
07-29-2008, 04:23 PM
I think it will be Kaine. Sebelius would be very good for McCain.

'Hamas' Jenkins
07-29-2008, 04:26 PM
Absolutely no way it should be Bayh with the Dems having a real shot at 57-58 Senate seats.

HonestChieffan
07-29-2008, 04:57 PM
Hes had a ton of possibilities refuse to be considered. Rats leaving ship?

penchief
07-29-2008, 07:22 PM
Biden makes no sense to me. McCain is praying for a Sebelius selection. Surely it will be Bayh or Kaine.

I can see why you would think Biden makes no sense. But he is the one guy that can whoop just about everybody on foreign affairs, including John McCain and his mythical expertise. He'd help alot on Iraq, Iran, and the Middle East in general. Few have as much credibility when it comes to foreign policy.

He's also very solid on domestic affairs. He's a policy wonk. And he's a straight-shooter. Plus, I can't think of anyone that would be stronger in the VP debates. The down side is that he has a mind of his own and there might be some damage control at some point.

However, I feel he's far too valuable in the senate so I'm indifferent as to whether he is the choice or not.

BigOlChiefsfan
07-29-2008, 07:32 PM
Dark Horse???
DARK HORSE???

Speciesist!!!

Ultra Peanut
07-29-2008, 07:49 PM
I'm still holding out for some sort of miracle with Schweitzer, but Sebelius has been my #2 choice for a couple of months. Biden is awesome, but he's probably a bit too cantankerous (and frankly, he'd be better utilized). VA's close enough that Kaine could maybe help out, and he'd be a solid veep during an Obama presidency.

Absolutely no way it should be Bayh with the Dems having a real shot at 57-58 Senate seats.Al Giordiano (http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/el-flip-flop-mas-grande) gives the best reason for it not being Bayh, outside of the "DLC/Clinton drone with neocon-esque foreign policy platform" reason and my personal "I can't stand that douche" one:

Had McCain not switched positions, he could have made a real play for those voters (George W. Bush had unprecedented success for a Republican winning Hispanic votes in Texas and later nationwide). But they're not going to forgive him, unless...

There's only one thing Obama could do to lose the goodwill he is building among Hispanic-American voters, the very demographic groups who could seal his landslide victory in November. I'm going to put it on the table, right out into the open: There are some names being floated on the alleged "short list" of vice presidential nominees for the Democrat. They include three US Senators that voted against immigration reform last year: Jim Webb of Virginia (who has said he's not interested in the post), Claire McCaskill of Missouri, and Evan Bayh of Indiana. The press has blown Bayh, in particular, some kisses of late in the veepstakes reporting.

To pick a running mate that voted against the 2007 Immigration Reform Bill would give McCain the opening to pull a large chunk of the Hispanic vote back into the GOP column, and would have a wet blanket effect on the growing enthusiasm for Obama among this sector, dampening voter turnout.

In politics, there are flip flops, and then there are flip flops big enough to matter, but the cave-in last year on immigration reform - more than on any other issue - by some Democratic legislators, and later last year by Senator McCain, constituted the biggest flip flop of all: the one that could lose somebody the presidency this year.

Obama can pick any governor, any legislator that voted for immigration reform, or anyone from any sector that did not vote against it last year, and still run away with the Hispanic vote in November. But to pick a member of Congress that voted against it would provoke a backlash with real consequences in voter turnout and the Electoral College with a force that probably cannot be found on any other single issue in 2008.

With Caroline Kennedy on the vetting committee, and her family's singular commitment to immigration reform, I'm not particularly concerned that this factor will go unnoticed in these final weeks as a VP nominee is being selected, but when names like Bayh's are floated in the media, his 2007 vote against immigration reform has to be brought up again and again, because it is that large of a deal breaker.

Frankie
07-29-2008, 09:16 PM
I supported Hillary Clinton, and I'm pissed at how she got railroaded. I am still planning to vote for Obama in November. But if he picks either Kaine or Sebelius, I might just sit this election out. I can't think of no more boring picks than these two. Yikes.

Frankie
07-29-2008, 09:18 PM
Biden makes no sense to me. McCain is praying for a Sebelius selection. Surely it will be Bayh or Kaine.

Biden makes a lot of sense. He'll instantly increase the ticket's credibility in regards to foreign policy and even National security. My second choice from that short list would be Bayh.

HolmeZz
07-29-2008, 09:31 PM
I supported Hillary Clinton, and I'm pissed at how she got railroaded. I am still planning to vote for Obama in November. But if he picks either Kaine or Sebelius, I might just sit this election out. I can't think of no more boring picks than these two. Yikes.

Because Bayh just screams excitement.

Frankie
07-29-2008, 09:52 PM
Because Bayh just screams excitement.

Way more than those other two. I'm still puking every time I remember Sebelius's reply to Bush's address. She exuded the weakness that the Righties like to brand Dems with.

HolmeZz
07-29-2008, 09:57 PM
Bayh isn't any more exciting than either of those two. You're just imagining it.

Obama doesn't need excitement from his VP pick and truthfully there aren't many choices he could make that would qualify as exciting. He's got the 'excitement' factor covered.

Ultra Peanut
07-29-2008, 09:58 PM
I supported Hillary Clinton, and I'm pissed at how she got railroaded. I am still planning to vote for Obama in November. But if he picks either Kaine or Sebelius, I might just sit this election out. I can't think of no more boring picks than these two. Yikes.Why would a boring -- not even bad, just boring -- VP pick be enough to make you sit out. That's insane.

Frankie
07-29-2008, 10:16 PM
Why would a boring -- not even bad, just boring -- VP pick be enough to make you sit out. That's insane.

I don't mind boring if he/she exudes strength. I mind boring that looks like weakness. As for Kaine, I think Obama is trying to attract the Bible belt. My issue with him is not just being unexciting, but also his religious background. Plus.....


Who wants to ever see her as first lady ?! ;)
http://www.firstlady.governor.virginia.gov/images/AnneHolton-HiRes-OfficialPortrait.jpg

chiefforlife
07-29-2008, 10:58 PM
This was on the front page of MSNBC.com.
What kind of headline is this???

Newsweek: Will Obama tap Virginia governor?

Lets try to keep it to politics, huh.

acesn8s
07-30-2008, 02:53 AM
If it is Gov. Kathleen Sebelius then get use to hearing President McCain.

A black pres. and a woman VP will be enough for the indeps. to run toward McCain.

He needs someone like Al Gore. Someone strong within the party that can get indeps. too.

Guru
07-30-2008, 03:12 AM
This was on the front page of MSNBC.com.
What kind of headline is this???

Newsweek: Will Obama tap Virginia governor?

Lets try to keep it to politics, huh.
LMAO

Ultra Peanut
07-30-2008, 03:27 AM
I don't mind boring if he/she exudes strength. I mind boring that looks like weakness. As for Kaine, I think Obama is trying to attract the Bible belt. My issue with him is not just being unexciting, but also his religious background.The guy's Catholic and has even said he's pro-life on a personal level, but he hasn't let that interfere with his politics. He also campaigned against the same-sex marriage ban in Virginia.

We're not talking about Jerry Falwell here.

Direckshun
07-30-2008, 06:44 AM
www.electoral-vote.com

Yet more buzz about Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA) spending his days and nights talking to Barack Obama's operatives. There are at least two plausible explanations about this. First, Kaine is indeed on the short list for the Veep job. Second, Obama's #1 red-state target is Virginia and Obama wants the governor to run his operation in Virginia.

Both could be true, of course. University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato has followed Kaine closely since 1994 and has the best analysis of what a Kaine pick would mean. The highlights are as follows.

First, Obama clearly likes Kaine. Both are newbie politicians with Kansas roots who graduated from Harvard Law School. Obama is 46. Kaine is 50. Liking your Veep is a real plus.

Second, this election is going to be about domestic policy and as former mayor of Richmond and now governor of Virginia, Kaine knows a lot about the nitty-gritty of education, health care, and economic issues.

Third, Kaine is not part of the Washington insider crowd and can credibly yell "CHANGE" along with Obama.

Fourth, Virginia has seceded--again. It is no longer part of the South. It is a Middle Atlantic State, just somewhat redder than Maryland. The enormous influx of people to the D.C. suburbs in Northern Virginia has allowed the Democrats to win the last two statewide elections: Kaine himself for governor in 2005 and Jim Webb as senator in 2006. With Kaine on the ticket, the Democrats have a decent chance of carrying for the state for the first time since Lyndon Johnson's landslide in 1964.

Fifth, Kaine is a devout Catholic, a fact he can emphasize by making sure he is photographed going to church every Sunday. He can also remind people that he was once a Jesuit missionary in Honduras.

Sixth, Kaine is a geographic twofer. He was born in Minnesota but went to high school and college in Missouri, graduating from the University of Missouri in economics. Since he lived in Missouri for many years, he could campaign in this key swing state and plausibly claim he knows the state and its people very well. If Kaine could bring in Virginia and Missouri based on geography alone, that's 24 electoral votes. Kerry got 252 electoral votes. You do the arithmetic.

Sabato also points out Kaine's downsides. First, Kaine has no foreign policy experience (unless you count his missionary experience).

Second, Kaine backed Obama from day 0, which means Obama is missing an opportunity to pick someone who supported Hillary Clinton. Her fans may notice that.

Third, Sabato (who lives in Virginia) says Kaine has not been a particularly good governor.

Fourth, the lieutentant governor of Virginia is Bob Bolling, a Republican. He would serve for a year and a new governor would be elected in Nov. 2009. If Bolling was elected in his own right, the Republicans would control the governor's mansion during a redistricting year. On the other hand, Kaine is term limited so he can't run in 2009 even if he does not become Vice President.

Kaine is pro life on the abortion question, which will raise the hackles on many Democrats but it is likely that the Democrats are hungry enough for victory that they may overlook this. This position may even be a bit of a plus in Appalachia. He also opposes same-sex marriage. While these positions won't make him popular in the lefty blogosphere, they do help Obama project his postpartisan image. Picking a pro-life, anti-same-sex-marriage VP will make it much harder for the Republicans to claim Obama is a wacko, far-out liberal and get anybody to believe it.

But getting a second or even a third job interview doesn't mean you get the job. The Kaine leaks could all be a smokescreen so Obama can pick some totally unknown state senator from Wisconsin.

Ultra Peanut
07-30-2008, 08:17 AM
Fifth, Kaine is a devout Catholic, a fact he can emphasize by making sure he is photographed going to church every Sunday. He can also remind people that he was once a Jesuit missionary in Honduras.There are dark people in Honduras.

Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim Kaine muslim

Frankie
07-30-2008, 08:54 AM
The guy's Catholic and has even said he's pro-life on a personal level, but he hasn't let that interfere with his politics. He also campaigned against the same-sex marriage ban in Virginia.

We're not talking about Jerry Falwell here.

I'm just very sensitive to "people of the cloth" taking over governments. I've seen it now in two places I have called home, with disastrous results.

Ultra Peanut
07-30-2008, 08:59 AM
I'm just very sensitive to "people of the cloth" taking over governments. I've seen it now in two places I have called home, with disastrous results.If you don't want ANYONE who champions religion to lead a country, you're looking in the wrong place.

The good thing about Kaine (and Obama, for that matter) is that, to my knowledge, he hasn't let personal religious beliefs interfere with policy decisions. The one thing I am certain of is that he's not going to lead any charges to ban abortion or outlaw gay marriage or anything like that. He's a believer in a particular religion, but he's not an extremist.

Chiefnj2
07-30-2008, 09:08 AM
I like Biden a lot, but he is too risky for Obama. Obama wouldn't be able to keep him in check. The other candidates remind me of KC's offense in preseason games - completely vanilla and boring.

Ultra Peanut
07-30-2008, 09:10 AM
I like Biden a lot, but he is too risky for Obama. Obama wouldn't be able to keep him in check. Exactly. Part of what makes him awesome is what makes him completely untenable as a VP choice.

Frankie
07-30-2008, 09:36 AM
Exactly. Part of what makes him awesome is what makes him completely untenable as a VP choice.

I hope you are wrong there. If Biden is the pick I'll even work for the campaign.

Ultra Peanut
07-30-2008, 09:38 AM
I hope you are wrong there. If Biden is the pick I'll even work for the campaign.A quick temper and distaste for bullshit are just not a good combination in a vice presidential candidate, sadly enough.

StcChief
07-30-2008, 09:46 AM
Dark Horse...Where is AL Sharpton or Jessie Jackson

SNR
07-30-2008, 10:06 AM
I understand Bill Richardson is probably far overqualified for VP, but I know a lot of people who would definitely vote for Obama if they had someone like that on the ticket.

Certainly would wipe out "HE GOT NO SPERIENCE" from many peoples' minds

Ultra Peanut
07-30-2008, 10:10 AM
I understand Bill Richardson is probably far overqualified for VP, but I know a lot of people who would definitely vote for Obama if they had someone like that on the ticket.

Certainly would wipe out "HE GOT NO SPERIENCE" from many peoples' mindsIt was Richardson's integrity that disqualified him from the spot. After he publicly endorsed Obama after being a Clinton friend for so long, he was pretty much dead to the Clintons. As a result, naming Richardson VP would set off a firestorm in the Clinton camp and would probably hurt Obama's campaign.