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View Full Version : Football What college team is most likely to go undefeated?


Mecca
07-29-2008, 08:47 PM
Well according to the money line......

http://www.themoneylinejournal.com/?p=612

I came up with the chart below using the same methodology as I did with the USC, Ohio St, and Georgia previews. These numbers do not take into account any potential conference championship games or bowl games.

http://www.themoneylinejournal.com/images/08cfbundefeatedodds.JPG

Vegas Watch did this a few weeks ago in his own way. Some of our numbers are similar. Others not so much.

Coming up with the point spreads for each game was a lot easier tonight then it was a few weeks ago. This time around I had access to a few sets of power numbers as well as the Sportsbook GOY odds.

I gave up on the college football previews early on because it became clear to me that there was no value to be had in this season’s college football futures market. I didn’t want to waste my time if there wasn’t going to be a bet in it for me at the end.

However, I ended up making a play after coming up with this latest list. Naturally I took the only team with actual value*, although it was extremely marginal and probably even debatable. I’ll be making a post about it on Monday. Feel free to guess in the mean time.

As expected USC has the best chance to finish the season undefeated. That doesn’t mean they are the best team though. Their odds of going 12-0 aren’t that much better than Florida and Oklahoma’s, and USC probably has the easiest schedule of the 3.

The primary set of power numbers* that I used in coming up with the lines had Georgia rated as the 2nd best team in the nation yet they only have the 10th best shot of going 12-0. It just goes to show how brutal that schedule really is.

A few teams had their odds completely slaughtered by one game. LSU would be in okay shape if they didn’t have to travel to Gainesville this year where they figure to be more than a one TD underdog. USF’s spot on the list will probably surprise some people, but if it weren’t for the Bulls season ending trip to Morgantown, they’d have a truly excellent shot of running the table.

I’ve spent a lot of time over the last month lamenting the fact that I never got down on Clemson while they were still out there at 50-1. Turns out this was a nice case of blind luck. They probably won’t be an underdog all season long, but their odds of reaching the national championship game are still very slim. Land mines litter the Tigers path to Miami.

Iowa and Notre Dame do not have very good chances of making it through their schedules unbeaten. Hawkeye fans were extremely excited about the two year break from Ohio St and Michigan when the schedule came out a few years ago. It is a shame that the team just isn’t very good anymore. They could be underdogs in half their games.

I really respect Pinnacle’s honesty in regards to BYU. Even if the Cougs do go undefeated they still won’t get an invite to the national championship game nor should they. Not when their signature win would be at Utah.

Based solely on my numbers and the Pinnacle odds West Virginia is best bet on this list, but they probably don’t represent true value. Oklahoma would be my next choice, I guess.

Make sure to shop around if you decide to make your own play. Every team on this list besides USC is available elsewhere at a better price.

*I got much better odds elsewhere.

*Phil Steele’s. Don’t even think about calling me biased.

I thought Missouri fans would enjoy seeing how high up they are on that list.

DJJasonp
07-29-2008, 09:00 PM
why do people continue to smoke Notre Dame's pole????

In all seriousness though...thanks for this....interesting.

SNR
07-29-2008, 09:05 PM
Didn't South Florida pretty much lose the overrated team that they DID have last year?

KCwolf
07-29-2008, 09:11 PM
Ask Kirk Herbstreit or Carson Palmer.....

Der Flöprer
07-29-2008, 09:14 PM
Posted via Mobile Device

SC WILL lose to the Huskies this year. You heard it here first...........


Don't laugh dammit!! I'm serious!! :cuss:

LiL stumppy
07-29-2008, 09:15 PM
OU.

Ari Chi3fs
07-29-2008, 09:15 PM
Hey, where is :KU: on this list???!!!!!eleven

DeezNutz
07-29-2008, 09:17 PM
M-I-Z
........
Z-O-U!!!

DaKCMan AP
07-29-2008, 09:19 PM
If Florida can beat Georgia, then they have a good shot of getting to the SEC Champ Game unscathed. Georgia has a tougher in-conference schedule. Still, it's far-fetched to think any SEC team will go undefeated.

Der Flöprer
07-29-2008, 09:25 PM
Posted via Mobile Device

SEC teams aren't going undefeated. They are the best in the nation though.

88TG88
07-29-2008, 09:31 PM
I think everyone gets at least one loss.

Mecca
07-29-2008, 09:33 PM
Alot of our year will hinge on how good Dirty Sanchez is, and if Vidal Hazelton is recovered from his stomach muscle tears and can be the player he's suppose to be.

chiefs1111
07-29-2008, 09:35 PM
If Florida can beat Georgia, then they have a good shot of getting to the SEC Champ Game unscathed. Georgia has a tougher in-conference schedule. Still, it's far-fetched to think any SEC team will go undefeated.

Yeah,that game against Georgia is going to be tough us and even though we should whip Tennessee,it's always a tough game for us when we play at their place. Other than that I think we will have a pretty good year.

PastorMikH
07-29-2008, 09:40 PM
OU could go undefeated through the regular season, but Stoops will find a way to lose whatever bowl game they go to.

LiL stumppy
07-29-2008, 09:41 PM
OU could go undefeated through the regular season, but Stoops will find a way to lose whatever bowl game they go to.

Indeed. :banghead:

alanm
07-29-2008, 10:33 PM
As expected USC has the best chance to finish the season undefeated. That doesn’t mean they are the best team though. Their odds of going 12-0 aren’t that much better than Florida and Oklahoma’s, and USC probably has the easiest schedule of the 3.

Do they play Stanford? :D

Mecca
07-29-2008, 10:34 PM
Do they play Stanford? :D

John David Booty is no longer here...

BWillie
07-29-2008, 11:27 PM
haha. Yes, sooo you are saying we have a chance. I'm a U of Iowa alum. We haven't been good since I went to school there. We aren't going to be good this year either, but we have the easiest schedule in the country.

beavis
07-29-2008, 11:41 PM
:mizzou:

Sam Hall
07-29-2008, 11:50 PM
Hey, where is :KU: on this list???!!!!!eleven

I'm not sure they're going to beat Nebraska. Both teams are projected to finish around 7-5.

chiefs1111
07-30-2008, 12:20 AM
John David Booty is no longer here...

You got to be happy about that.......

Mecca
07-30-2008, 12:49 AM
You got to be happy about that.......

I was ready for him to be gone.

bigkyle76
07-30-2008, 12:52 AM
Didn't South Florida pretty much lose the overrated team that they DID have last year?

yeah 10 returning starters on offense is losing their hole team. and the defense is returning two future first round draft picks.

dorseybowe
07-30-2008, 12:55 AM
Judging by the chart, I would say Iowa.