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View Full Version : Elections 3 Months To Go... All Tied Up....


recxjake
08-01-2008, 02:19 PM
1

Taco John
08-01-2008, 02:23 PM
I don't understand why anybody trusts the gallup numbers at this point, they've swung so wildly. Frankly, the only number I'm paying any creedence to is the Intrade predective markets.

Mr. Flopnuts
08-01-2008, 02:26 PM
Who went to Europe to meet with The Bilderberg group this year?

'Hamas' Jenkins
08-01-2008, 05:52 PM
And yet, Jake, your precious Ohio numbers now show Obama ahead--moreover, he's also ahead in Florida.

Keep grasping at statistical outliers, it makes you look brilliant.

Guru
08-01-2008, 05:57 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

Direckshun
08-01-2008, 05:58 PM
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008-all.png

Direckshun
08-01-2008, 06:17 PM
RCP Averages:

Colorado 47.0 45.3 Obama +1.7
Virginia 47.3 46.3 Obama +1.0
Missouri 45.3 47.3 McCain +2.0
Michigan 46.3 42.0 Obama +4.3
Ohio 46.0 45.5 Obama +0.5
Florida 45.5 46.0 McCain +0.5

It is very... very... close
If it fell that way, Obama would win the election.

McCain's going to have to win a shit-ton of swing states.

BigCatDaddy
08-01-2008, 06:22 PM
The negative attacks are starting to make a differencein the numbers. Hillary just waited too long to start taking shots at Obama and couldn't make up the ground. The think the McCain campaign learned from her mistake.

Guru
08-01-2008, 06:29 PM
If it fell that way, Obama would win the election.

McCain's going to have to win a shit-ton of swing states.

Look!! The new Captain Obvious is here. :D

recxjake
08-01-2008, 06:33 PM
If it fell that way, Obama would win the election.

McCain's going to have to win a shit-ton of swing states.

Obama has out always polled higher then what he actually got... hence New Hampshire and California in the primary. McCain is in a great spot right now condsidering the circumstances.

memyselfI
08-01-2008, 06:44 PM
Looks like the undecideds are going to be a huge factor. They didn't swing NObama's way in the primary. If I were his camp I'd be getting nervous.

Ultra Peanut
08-01-2008, 10:15 PM
The negative attacks are starting to make a differencein the numbers. Hillary just waited too long to start taking shots at Obama and couldn't make up the ground. The think the McCain campaign learned from her mistake.Ah, what an honorable philosophy.

McCain's problem is, he's blowing his load in July, when no one except junkies is paying attention, anyways. Seeing as they're already recycling the shit Hillary used, that doesn't portend a ton of material from here through November.

Additionally, Obama hasn't started spending his money on ad blitzes yet, while McCain's trying to max out before he hits the "Nobody likes me so I need public financing" window.

I expected things to be in the 2-3 point range last week, and I'm still not sure how an overseas trip bumped them like it apparently did, but things are pretty much always going to be "close" at this point, going by the polls.

Ultra Peanut
08-01-2008, 11:19 PM
Looks like the undecideds are going to be a huge factor. They didn't swing NObama's way in the primary. If I were his camp I'd be getting nervous.Yeah, Obama only made huge gains in states that Clinton led by 20+. He did terribly in the primary, which is why he's the Democratic candidate today.

jAZ
08-01-2008, 11:27 PM
Karl Rove had a good week.

wazu
08-01-2008, 11:39 PM
I don't understand why anybody trusts the gallup numbers at this point, they've swung so wildly. Frankly, the only number I'm paying any creedence to is the Intrade predective markets.

The Intrade predictive markets seem kind of silly to me. How can anything be more predictive than a statistically sound sampling of likely voters, or at the very least registered voters? Predictive markets sounds like nothing more than gambling on an unknown outcome, which involves a lot of average dumb people guessing as if it were a football game. Didn't these markets give Ron Paul something like a 1 in 8 chance of winning the presidency?

Ultra Peanut
08-02-2008, 12:02 AM
The Intrade predictive markets seem kind of silly to me. How can anything be more predictive than a statistically sound sampling of likely voters, or at the very least registered voters? Predictive markets sounds like nothing more than gambling on an unknown outcome, which involves a lot of average dumb people guessing as if it were a football game. Didn't these markets give Ron Paul something like a 1 in 8 chance of winning the presidency?Polls that are four months out are crap shoots, but yeah, predictions markets are infinitely less reliable.

alanm
08-02-2008, 02:17 AM
Karl Rove had a good week.
That evil genous (Chiefs Planet spelling) had a great week.:evil:

Taco John
08-02-2008, 02:51 AM
The Intrade predictive markets seem kind of silly to me. How can anything be more predictive than a statistically sound sampling of likely voters, or at the very least registered voters? Predictive markets sounds like nothing more than gambling on an unknown outcome, which involves a lot of average dumb people guessing as if it were a football game.

Statistically sound? How many bad polls do we have to witness and then forget about after the fact before we realize that polls are actually nothing more than news drivers? The only poll worth a damn is an exit poll.


Didn't these markets give Ron Paul something like a 1 in 8 chance of winning the presidency?

Uh, no.

Predictive market is no more gambling than a stock market, in which traders agree on a price of a share and the market goes up and down based on that invested agreement. Sometimes there is hype in the numbers. Other times, you'll find them undervalued. But for the most part, the actual value is somewhere in the neighborhood, because there's money to be made by accurately predicting whether the stock is undervalued or not. Nobody wants to lose money.

Joe Dumbass who may or may not vote will be glad to take a phone call to answer the questions (and feel like he's a part of it) isn't invested in anything but his own pride at the moment of that phone call.

But the predictive markets are a different beast altogether. The people involved are invested in it. They're not looking to lose money. The market sets the price, and people either buy or sell based on whether they believe that the market is priced low or high. The results speak for themselves.

http://www.intrade.com/images/generated/intrade/DEM_nom.png


http://www.intrade.com/images/generated/intrade/REP_nom.png


It's just a series of market corrections. Sometimes prices are high, sometimes they are low... but they're rarely too far off of the truth for the period of time that they are traded in.

***SPRAYER
08-02-2008, 07:17 AM
I think it's safe to say that neither McCain's or B.O.'s support hasn't really increased since June.

I think they both have an even amount of support. As we get closer to November you will see all the voters that are turned off by McCain acknowledge they must bite the bullet and vote for him lest they want massive socialism.

Calcountry
08-02-2008, 02:51 PM
I don't understand why anybody trusts the gallup numbers at this point, they've swung so wildly. Frankly, the only number I'm paying any creedence to is the Intrade predective markets.
Just like the dot com bubble, real estate bubble, that one will burst.

Hopefully, not a second level burst.

Calcountry
08-02-2008, 02:52 PM
If Obama loses Taco, would that be seen as a "Colossal failure"?

whoman69
08-03-2008, 12:41 AM
Obama has out always polled higher then what he actually got... hence New Hampshire and California in the primary. McCain is in a great spot right now condsidering the circumstances.

You're generalizing. He did much better than polling in many states including North Carolina and Indiana.

whoman69
08-03-2008, 12:47 AM
fivethirtyeight.com still has Obama winning in more than 60% of their scenarios, and expecting him to win more than 300 EV. The numbers may not be as large as they were but the fact remains that Obama is still ahead and McCain has done nothing to take the lead, only keep it close. The fact that you keep harping about a poll which has swung from Obama leading by 8% just a week ago to being tied now just shows how inaccurate and wildly fluxuating that poll is. fivethirtyeight.com looks at the bigger picture, not one single poll which just happens to be the most recent.

***SPRAYER
08-03-2008, 07:50 PM
ROFL

I think B.O. has jumped the shark:

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/a-non-happening-in-central-park

alanm
08-03-2008, 08:06 PM
I don't understand why anybody trusts the gallup numbers at this point, they've swung so wildly. Frankly, the only number I'm paying any creedence to is the Intrade predective markets.
I think the point being is that BO should be up by at least 2 TD's by now and it's not happening. People are getting nervous.

***SPRAYER
08-04-2008, 09:00 AM
McCain is up 1 now...

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


McCain is getting some traction, now.

Like I've been saying, the undecided's are undecided about whether or not to vote for McCain or just stay home. They are not undecided about B.O.