PDA

View Full Version : Elections Rasmussen poll has McCain ahead


markk
08-04-2008, 09:33 AM
Monday, August 04, 2008



The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.

This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3 (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.

McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters now see Obama as politically liberal while 65% see McCain as politically conservative. Among liberals, 71% see Obama as one of them, but just 18% of liberals see Obama as Very Liberal. Among conservatives, 71% say McCain is also a conservative, including 38% who say he is Very Conservative. Thirty-five percent (35%) of politically moderate voters say that McCain is politically moderate and 33% say the same of Obama. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Democrats see McCain as conservative while 69% of Republicans see Obama as liberal (see other recent demographic highlights).

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters trust McCain more than Obama on energy issues while Obama is trusted more by 42%. Two months ago, Obama had a four point edge on the energy issue (Premium Members can review Crosstabs and Trends). The presumptive Democratic nominee is addressing economic issues in Michigan this morning and Rasmussen Reports will release polling data at 10:00 a.m. Eastern on his key proposals (available for Premium Members now at the Daily Snapshot).

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters nationwide now say that Obama views U.S. society as unfair and discriminatory. That’s up from 43% in July and 39% in June. By a three-to-one margin, American voters hold the opposite view and believe that our society is generally fair and decent (Premium Members can review Crosstabs and Trends).

Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.

Polling data released earlier today showed that 46% say Affirmative Action programs are no longer necessary, but 32% believe they should continue.

The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell two percentage points in July. Obama’s party still enjoys a big advantage over the GOP, but the gap between the parties is the smallest it has been since January.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters have seen or heard news coverage of McCain’s ad including Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Just 22% believe the ad was racist. But, most say Obama’s comment about not looking like other Presidents on the dollar bill was racist.

Each Saturday morning, Rasmussen Reports takes a look at the week’s key polls to see What They Told Us. Earlier, Rasmussen Reports released data on a topic of interest to poll junkies and armchair campaign analysts alike--day-of-week polling bias. There is little evidence to support the notion that some days of the week poll better for Republicans while other days are better for Democrats.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 60.0 % chance of winning the White House.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis).

noa
08-04-2008, 09:41 AM
One reason I rarely read these poll threads is because of the margin of error. What is the point of saying that either of these guys is ahead when that minuscule lead is within the margin of error? The poll itself is telling you that it could be wrong and the other guy might actually be in the lead.

bkkcoh
08-04-2008, 09:48 AM
America is such a racist country.

I can't imagine how ticked Hillary is at this news.

***SPRAYER
08-04-2008, 09:50 AM
America is such a racist country.



Especially those people that belong to Trinity United "Church".

markk
08-04-2008, 09:50 AM
One reason I rarely read these poll threads is because of the margin of error. What is the point of saying that either of these guys is ahead when that minuscule lead is within the margin of error? The poll itself is telling you that it could be wrong and the other guy might actually be in the lead.

I see a number of significant points.

-Between the time Obama wrapped up the primary race and today, the race has moved in McCain's direction in this poll. The messiah tour didn't seem to help.
-McCain leading 52 to 37 in unaffiliated voters also seems quite significant.
-McCain has higher favorability numbers with his own party than Obama does with his.
-The energy issue has taken an 8 point swing in McCain's direction

Ultra Peanut
08-04-2008, 09:56 AM
This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOO BREAK OUT THE CHAMPAGNE

***SPRAYER
08-04-2008, 09:57 AM
B.O. is static.

Ultra Peanut
08-04-2008, 10:01 AM
You're static.

StcChief
08-04-2008, 12:16 PM
Bark Obama better get back on the 757 deluxe pimp plane and tour some more. :rolleyes:

Programmer
08-04-2008, 12:19 PM
Bark Obama better get back on the 757 deluxe pimp plane and tour some more. :rolleyes:

Is that the 757 he had the U.S. Flag removed from?

***SPRAYER
08-04-2008, 12:21 PM
Bark Obama better get back on the 757 deluxe pimp plane and tour some more. :rolleyes:

If he doesn't pull out to a significant lead by September, he's toast.

BigCatDaddy
08-04-2008, 12:31 PM
If he doesn't pull out to a significant lead by September, he's toast.

The libs will disagree and say the debates will make people realize the brillance of Obama and you to will be mezmorized by Obama magic. All will bow down to the Great "O".

alanm
08-04-2008, 12:33 PM
If he doesn't pull out to a significant lead by September, he's toast.
Did you hear any of his speech this morning? I think he just shot another toe off. :)

***SPRAYER
08-04-2008, 12:34 PM
The libs will disagree and say the debates will make people realize the brillance of Obama and you to will be mezmorized by Obama magic. All will bow down to the Great "O".


ROFL

I'm going to enjoy watching this guy deflate like balloon between now and November.

markk
08-04-2008, 12:35 PM
The libs will disagree and say the debates will make people realize the brillance of Obama and you to will be mezmorized by Obama magic. All will bow down to the Great "O".

They erupt into rapturous applause when he blows his nose. of course they think that.

I wonder what John Kerry's lead was around the first of August in 2004?

Tiger's Fan
08-04-2008, 12:40 PM
I'm suprised that it's taking this long for the worm to turn. But Americans, on average, aren't very bright either. You can only run on bullshit and mirrors for so long.

markk
08-04-2008, 01:46 PM
I'm suprised that it's taking this long for the worm to turn. But Americans, on average, aren't very bright either. You can only run on bullshit and mirrors for so long.

i agree... hence the lead evaporating

recxjake
08-04-2008, 01:56 PM
Ohio, Florida, Michigan... if wins those three... McCain wins.

Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico are going blue.

Indiana, Virginia, Missouri must stay red or McCain has no chance.

jAZ
08-04-2008, 02:06 PM
Bark Obama better get back on the 757 deluxe pimp plane and tour some more. :rolleyes:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/206856.php

Tell Me Your Thoughts

I'm curious to hear what people think of this post at the CBSNews website comparing the Obama and McCain campaign planes. Let me know.

Late Update: For those of you who haven't had a chance to check out the post, it goes to great length detailing the luxurious accommodations of Obama's plane, down to photographs of seats in the first class cabin. The author even has The Politico's Mike Allen pop in for a bit of nonsensical snark: "Air Force One may seem a tad claustrophobic." Then down at the bottom we have a terse description of McCain's plane ... seems to be virtually identical to Obama's. Perhaps needless to say TPM AL's few minutes of research found this 2004 USAToday article which notes that Kerry's 2004 plane was virtually identical. And President Bush, before he got the government plane, "used a similarly configured Boeing 757 during the 2000 campaign."

The piece then notes: "Now [President Bush] commands the much grander Air Force One."

Not exactly claustrophobic.

--Josh Marshall

***SPRAYER
08-04-2008, 02:07 PM
B.O. is dead in the water.

'Hamas' Jenkins
08-04-2008, 02:19 PM
Looks like I'm late to the circle jerk

:sulk:

SBK
08-04-2008, 02:21 PM
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/206856.php
Tell Me Your Thoughts

I'm curious to hear what people think of this post at the CBSNews website comparing the Obama and McCain campaign planes. Let me know.

Late Update: For those of you who haven't had a chance to check out the post, it goes to great length detailing the luxurious accommodations of Obama's plane, down to photographs of seats in the first class cabin. The author even has The Politico's Mike Allen pop in for a bit of nonsensical snark: "Air Force One may seem a tad claustrophobic." Then down at the bottom we have a terse description of McCain's plane ... seems to be virtually identical to Obama's. Perhaps needless to say TPM AL's few minutes of research found this 2004 USAToday article which notes that Kerry's 2004 plane was virtually identical. And President Bush, before he got the government plane, "used a similarly configured Boeing 757 during the 2000 campaign."

The piece then notes: "Now [President Bush] commands the much grander Air Force One."

Not exactly claustrophobic.

--Josh Marshall


But does John McCain's seat say 'President' yet? :evil:

memyselfI
08-04-2008, 02:49 PM
America is such a racist country.

I can't imagine how ticked Hillary is at this news.

She is probably feeling pretty good right now. If NObama loses her ghost will haunt him forever. If he wins, it will be because her voters came around and threw him over the top. Without them, he'd be nowhere.

Not a bad place for her to be right now...

all things considered.

recxjake
08-04-2008, 03:20 PM
Obama Bubble Burst? Big drop in Mass?!? ROFL

Suffolk University Massachusetts General Election

Barack Obama 47% (53%)
John McCain 38% (30%)

Survey of 500 registered voters was conducted July 31 - August 3. Results from the poll conducted June 8-10 are in parentheses.