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View Full Version : Elections The 2008 election, forecasted by the economy.


Direckshun
08-04-2008, 04:18 PM
Based off economic indiators, Andrew Gelman of redbluerichpoor.com predicts that Obama will win the general election with 53% of the vote.

He also does a great job explaining what I couldn't figure out a little bit ago, why Obama isn't further ahead in the polls (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=188338).

http://redbluerichpoor.com/blog/?p=19

The nonpuzzle of the close election polls
August 1st, 2008

The economy is going badly, Bush is unpopular, so why is Obama up only slightly in the polls? This is the question that is (currently) puzzling the political world. A quick answer: the economy isn’t going so badly by historical standards, and Bush’s popularity isn’t so relevant given that he’s not running for reelection. Forecasting models based on past elections predict Obama to get something like 53% of the two-party vote–but these forecasts aren’t perfect; they have a margin of error of a few percentage points. (This is not the margin of error of the polls, arising from sampling variation; rather, it’s the uncertainty reflected by the imperfections of the forecasting model as applied retrospectively to past elections.) In short: macro conditions for the Republicans are not so bad as all that: Obama is a legitimate favorite but there’s no reason to expect that there would be a landslide. Things are going about how one might suspect based on historical patterns of the economy, incumbency, and presidential elections.

To think about it another way, consider this graph adapted from Doug Hibbs of incumbent party’s vote share and economic growth, for all presidential elections since 1952.

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/mlm/hibbs6.png

As you can see, the incumbent party sometimes loses but they never have gotten really slaughtered. In periods of low economic growth, the incumbent party can lose, but a 53-47 margin would be typical; you wouldn’t expect the challenger to get much more than that. Such things can happen (see, for example, Eisenhower’s performance against Stevenson in 1952) but it wouldn’t be expected.

Direckshun
08-04-2008, 04:48 PM
Classic derailing technique.

VAChief
08-04-2008, 05:49 PM
Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Florida General Election
SurveyUSA Florida General Election

John McCain 50%
Barack Obama 44%

Survey of 679 likely voters was conducted August 1-3. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

What were Rudy's numbers?

StcChief
08-04-2008, 06:46 PM
the polls must be rigged....the Messiah can't be behind.