Suprising: McCain has a real problem with men and the white working class

[jAZ]

This is rather shocking.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/cbsnyt_poll_obamas_lead_unchan.php

CBS/NYT Poll: Obama's Lead Unchanged Since Mid-July
By Eric Kleefeld - August 6, 2008, 10:45PM

The new CBS/New York Times poll ... internals have some interesting demographic numbers. The two candidates are tied 40%-40% among independents. Obama leads 46%-42% among men and 44%-36% with women, and Obama has a 55%-33% lead with voters under age 45 to McCain's 44%-36% lead among voters over 45; And Obama is ahead 44%-32% among working class whites, a demographic that conventional wisdom had held he'd do badly with.

WaPo's poll picked the trend up too...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/03/AR2008080301969.html?hpid=topnews

...even among white workers -- a group of voters that has been targeted by both parties as a key to victory in November -- Obama leads McCain by 10 percentage points, 47 percent to 37 percent, and has the advantage as the more empathetic candidate.

Isn't this the group that supported Hillary over Obama and thus she had to be the nominee? That's a big deal if that margin holds over the next months.

[SNR]

Probably because Obama isn't calling them "Lunchbucket Democrats" (Hillary did)

[Ultra Peanut]

But It's A Squeaker!!!!!

[HolmeZz]

Probably because Obama isn't calling them "Lunchbucket Democrats" (Hillary did)

I think her term was "hard-working white people", which to this day remains hilarious.

[ROYC75]

Here is your reason , the problem ........The new CBS/New York Times poll !

Color me shocked :eek:? Not .....

[Radar Chief]

I’m not sure this should be a surprise. I think most “working” people’s problems with Gramps can be summed up with three words. “No you can’t.”

[Ultra Peanut]

I’m not sure this should be a surprise. I think most “working” people’s problems with Gramps can be summed up with three words. “No you can’t.”The combination of selling out their interests and not even trying to pretend otherwise definitely isn't a good way to win them over.

[HonestChieffan]

Spin it how ever you want. "men and the white working class" are going to be very difficult for polls to evaluate and predict.

Historically, this group votes. They dont typically stay away on election day. And historically, they tend to vote a value vote. This has been the case since the FDR years, the Truman Democrats, the LBJ Dems, on through the Nixon years and up till today. They also vote their pocketbook. And the idea of a days work and a days pay is pretty solid. The idea that they see someone like Obama as a positive is very shakey at best. Consider:

2nd Amendment...

These tend to be folks who work, dont have a ton of money, and cant afford the newest gas saver car....they get a reminder every day on fuel impact on their lives...Pelosi is not going to help Obama.

They go to church and support their communities...These are the folks not in KC, Lawrence, or San Fran...these folks are in Garnett, Butler, Nevada, St Joe, Holden and inbetween. Obamas base and his message will not fit in those towns, in those lives. The fact is Obama is tied to a message he sold to his base...young people supported him without reservation untill the shift began.

Now...consider that the young people vote, always a target even back in the Nixon/McGovern days, is very hard to predict. They tend to be loud, active, committed. But they tend to register low turnout come election day.


For Obama, this has to be a major worry. His appeal wont sway the old boy who works for the local fertilizer planr or lumberyard and has a little ground and a wife and 2 kids and works hard as hell just to make end meet.


Its just my opinion...

[SHTSPRAYER]

Where was the poll done, Greenwich Village?

[Chiefnj2]

For Obama, this has to be a major worry. His appeal wont sway the old boy who works for the local fertilizer planr or lumberyard and has a little ground and a wife and 2 kids and works hard as hell just to make end meet.


Its just my opinion...

His appeal may sway the guys who were laid off from the lumber yard or fertilizer plant who can't pay their bills and have no medical insurance.

[HonestChieffan]

Many of those communities are ag based economies. The Ag economy and the related services are having banner years right now. So I wouldnt expect to see much of that.