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View Full Version : Elections 538: Can Biden Out-Hillary Hillary?


Ultra Peanut
08-23-2008, 02:03 PM
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/can-biden-out-hillary-hillary.html

Can Biden Out-Hillary Hillary?
Nate Silver

The principal rationale for selecting Hillary Clinton as Barack Obama's running mate is that she would have united Democrats behind their nominee at a time when they have a substantial advantage in party identification. John Kerry received 89 percent of the Democratic vote in 2004; if Barack Obama can get within a couple of points of that, even to 86 or 87 percent, he will be very difficult to defeat.

However, Joe Biden might do nearly as good a job as Clinton of uniting the party, while perhaps paying less of a price among independents.

Rasmussen has fresh approval numbers out for Biden, as well as several other Democratic short-listers. Here, borrowed from Rasmussen's invaluable subscriber service, are their approval scores by party:

Democrats

Candidate Fav-Unfav
Clinton 77-22 (+55)
Biden 65-17 (+48)
Bayh 45-25 (+20)
Sebelius 35-19 (+16)
Kaine 35-29 (+6)

Clinton has the highest favorables and highest net score among Democrats; Biden has the fewest unfavorables. Generally speaking, Clinton and Biden blow the other three candidates out of the water.

. . .

Click the link (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/can-biden-out-hillary-hillary.html), nerd. The formatting makes it better.

Friendo
08-23-2008, 05:43 PM
umm, yep--good post! also noteworthy that BO consulted Dick Lugar and he recommended Biden.

dirk digler
08-23-2008, 06:43 PM
Yep. Biden is a million times more working class than Hillary ever was. That would make Biden a trillion times more working class than McCain and Romney. In fact none of the republicans are working class.

penchief
08-23-2008, 07:41 PM
ROFL...

Republicans believe in giving a hand up, not a hand out you liberal pussy ROFL

You don't know what you're talking about.

VAChief
08-23-2008, 07:42 PM
ROFL...

Republicans believe in giving hand jobs

FYP

NewChief
08-23-2008, 07:50 PM
ROFL...

Republicans believe in giving a hand up, not a hand out you liberal pussy ROFL

You're such an ignorant little shit.

dirk digler
08-23-2008, 07:59 PM
ROFL...

Republicans believe in giving a hand up, not a hand out you liberal pussy ROFL

Is that why this country has lost millions of jobs including your loser dad under a republican administration and Congress

If that is what you calling giving a hand up no thanks.

dirk digler
08-23-2008, 08:03 PM
ROFL ROFL ROFL

ROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFL

dirk digler
08-23-2008, 08:11 PM
Hey jake I made the same deal with Denise that I will make with you. Don't attack me personally and I will do the same. Deal?

dirk digler
08-23-2008, 08:21 PM
.

That is what I thought. You can throw shit but can't take it when it is thrown back at you

banyon
08-23-2008, 08:22 PM
This seems fairly important too. Of course Biden hasn't had very long to be exposed to the Republican smear machine.

Indepedents
Candidate Fav-Unfav
Biden 42-29 (+13)
Bayh 31-21 (+10)
Kaine 24-23 (+1)
Sebelius 18-21 (-3)
Clinton 39-57 (-18)

Where Biden might do some good is among independents, among whom he has the highest favorables and highest net rating, although a couple other candidates had lower unfavorables. But Biden certainly performs better amongst this critical group than Hillary Clinton. One can argue that Biden is very well positioned within the Democratic party, probably just slightly to the right of the average Democratic senator. Liberal Democrats certainly won't be pleased with his votes on the AUMF or the bankruptcy bill, but they still essentially trust him, which they wouldn't necessarily with a more identifiably centrist choice like Evan Bayh or Tim Kaine. But on the other hand, Biden cannot so easily be characterized as a liberal to turn off independent voters; in fact, independents and moderates like him pretty well.

Logical
08-23-2008, 08:30 PM
ROFL ROFL ROFL

Classy... and my dad still has a job... you ****Seems like you started it and got what you deserved. By your reaction it appears you are the pussy.

dirk digler
08-23-2008, 08:31 PM
This seems fairly important too. Of course Biden hasn't had very long to be exposed to the Republican smear machine.

Indepedents
Candidate Fav-Unfav
Biden 42-29 (+13)
Bayh 31-21 (+10)
Kaine 24-23 (+1)
Sebelius 18-21 (-3)
Clinton 39-57 (-18)

Where Biden might do some good is among independents, among whom he has the highest favorables and highest net rating, although a couple other candidates had lower unfavorables. But Biden certainly performs better amongst this critical group than Hillary Clinton. One can argue that Biden is very well positioned within the Democratic party, probably just slightly to the right of the average Democratic senator. Liberal Democrats certainly won't be pleased with his votes on the AUMF or the bankruptcy bill, but they still essentially trust him, which they wouldn't necessarily with a more identifiably centrist choice like Evan Bayh or Tim Kaine. But on the other hand, Biden cannot so easily be characterized as a liberal to turn off independent voters; in fact, independents and moderates like him pretty well.

To get the thread back on track I agree with this and Biden is a good man with a working class history and has a ton of foreign policy experience.

banyon
08-23-2008, 08:44 PM
Hmmm... how are the O-Bots going to react to this?

In July 2003, Amid Questions Concerning A Lack Of Stockpiles Of Weapons Of Mass Destruction In Iraq, Biden Defended The War As "Justified" And Said "I Still Believe That Saddam Possessed Weapons Of Mass Destruction." Biden: "I still believe that Saddam possessed weapons of mass destruction and that the war in Iraq was justified." (Sen. Joe Biden, "Statement Of Senator Joe Biden On The White House's Acknowledgment That Iraq-Uranium Assertion Was Wrong," Press Release, biden.senate.gov, 7/8/03)

"I made my pitch for Biden-Lugar, [the alternative Iraq war authorization resolution], pointing out the very real constraints it put on the president.
But the president was giving personal assurances that he would try every avenue of diplomacy before he took the country to war. And it was clear that Colin Powell and members of the Joint Chiefs were not eager to go to war in Iraq. With that in mind, I decided to vote for the resolution.

I believed the resolution passed by Congress provided the firm & united support Powell needed to be able to get the United Nations Security Council to pass and enforce a new resolution that got the inspectors back into Iraq, kept Saddam in his box, and thus avoided a war. I wasn't alone in that.

I made a mistake. I underestimated the influence of Cheney, Rumsfeld, and the rest of the neocons; I vastly underestimated their disingenuousness and incompetence. So Bush went to war just the way the neocons wanted him to--without significant international backing."

Source: Promises to Keep, by Joe Biden, p.339-342 Jul 31, 2007

Logical
08-23-2008, 08:45 PM
recxjake as usual does not tell all the story.The Real Surge Story

By Joe Biden
Thursday, April 12, 2007; Page A27

Sen. John McCain (http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/john-mccain/)[" The War You're Not Reading About (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/06/AR2007040601781.html)," op-ed, April 8] is right to warn about the consequences of failure in Iraq. But he is fundamentally wrong when he argues that those potential consequences require us to stick with a failing strategy.
It is precisely because the stakes are so great that we must change course in Iraq, now.


McCain wrote that the president's strategy is beginning to show results but that most Americans don't know it because the media cover the bad news, not the good news. Of course, reporting any news in Iraq is an extraordinary act of bravery, given the dangers journalists must navigate every day. But the fact is, virtually every "welcome development" McCain cited has been reported, including the purported anti-al-Qaeda alliance with Sunni sheikhs in Anbar, the establishment of joint U.S.-Iraqi security stations in Baghdad and the decision by Moqtada al-Sadr to go to ground -- for now.
The problem is that for every welcome development, there is an equally or even more unwelcome development that gives lie to the claim that we are making progress. For example:
While violence against Iraqis is down in some Baghdad neighborhoods where we have "surged" forces, it is up dramatically in the belt ringing Baghdad. The civilian death toll increased 15 percent from February to March. Essentially, when we squeeze the water balloon in one place, it bulges somewhere else.


It is true that Sadr has not been seen, but he has been heard, rallying his followers with anti-American messages and encouraging his thugs to take on American troops in the south. Intelligence experts believe his militia is simply waiting out the surge.
Closing markets to vehicles has precluded some car bombs, but it also has prompted terrorists to change tactics and walk in with suicide vests. The road from the airport to Baghdad may be safer, but the skies above it are more lethal -- witness the ironic imposition of "no-fly zones" for our own helicopters.


The most damning evidence that the "results" McCain cites are illusory is the city of Tall Afar. Architects of the president's plan called it a model because in 2005, a surge of about 10,000 Americans and Iraqis pacified the city. Then we left Tall Afar, just as our troops soon will leave the Baghdad neighborhoods that they have calmed.


This month, Tall Afar was the scene of some of the most horrific sectarian violence to date: a massive truck bomb aimed at the Shiite community led to a retaliatory rampage by Shiite death squads, aided by the Iraqi police. Hundreds were killed. The population of Tall Afar, 200,000 a few years ago, is down to 80,000.

banyon
08-23-2008, 08:48 PM
Oh good, more Kerryisms

He said "I made a mistake". I don't recall Kerry saying that. What else do you want him to say?

Logical
08-23-2008, 08:48 PM
Let's see if recxjake grows some nads and actually responds or if he switches threads.

dirk digler
08-23-2008, 08:51 PM
We agree!!!

Great Foreign Policy Experience...I mean he even voted for the war!!!

Biden Called Saddam Hussein "An Extreme Danger To The World." Biden: "This is a guy who's used weapons of mass destruction. This is a guy who's destabilized the whole neighborhood. This is a guy who in a war with the Iranians, over 800,000 people on both sides were killed. This is a guy who is an extreme danger to the world. And this is a guy who is in every way possible seeking weapons of mass destruction. That case, in and of itself, ought to be sufficient." (NBC's "Meet The Press," 8/4/02)

Here you go jake.

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/v1op8vwF5UA&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/v1op8vwF5UA&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

Logical
08-23-2008, 08:51 PM
Biden Praised McCain's Early Call For More Troops In Iraq. Biden: "And so I've believed for a long time, a view shared by my Republican colleague John McCain and many others as well, that we need more force in Iraq. That's not a popular position to take. But we need more force now in order to have less force later. We need to gain control of security in Iraq." (Sen. Joe Biden, To The Center For Strategic And International Studies Policy Forum, Washington, DC, 4/15/04)That is 4 years ago is that the best you can do?

dirk digler
08-23-2008, 08:53 PM
Actually that video I posted is great because Biden proposed more troops to go to Iraq before McCain did

dirk digler
08-23-2008, 09:00 PM
Didn't he want to divide Iraq into 3 countries?

IIRC I think he proposed that. He also called for more troops to help out before McCain did. He also called for solving the political situation prior to anyone else.

Ultra Peanut
08-23-2008, 09:02 PM
That is 4 years ago is that the best you can do?Funny thing is, the positive comments Biden made about McCain in the McCain campaign's newest ad are from 2005.

So yeah, they're totally willing to reach back to cherry pick, while ignoring everything that's happened since.

dirk digler
08-23-2008, 09:03 PM
hmm... Obama should take the VP spot?

Funny thing is Biden was my second favorite pick after Obama. Things worked out well IMO.

banyon
08-23-2008, 09:41 PM
He said "I made a mistake". I don't recall Kerry saying that. What else do you want him to say?

I guess I'm not going to get an answer to this question. Big surprise.