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View Full Version : Elections DNC convention. Predict the bounce for NObama


memyselfI
08-25-2008, 06:10 PM
Most polls indicate the two candidates are basically tied and for this thread we are going to assume those polls are correct. Thus, predict the bounce NObama will receive from his coronation, er, convention.

I'm predicting the dead cat MOE bounce of 2-3%.

Anyone else willing to take a guess?

Cannibal
08-25-2008, 06:12 PM
Ignore it god damnit... that is a f()ckin order! :grr:

banyon
08-25-2008, 06:31 PM
It's too bad they didn't pick Hillary1!!11!

Direckshun
08-25-2008, 06:32 PM
I actually think it will be low too, memyselfI.

First time we've agreed, I think.

tiptap
08-25-2008, 07:07 PM
The average bounce is 5.5 for either party and it is a bounce. It goes away pretty fast. Why would anyone care about the bounce. It is the energy infused in the party that pays dividends down the line. Republicans aren't looking for votes now, they are looking to remove effort on the ground.

HolmeZz
08-25-2008, 07:08 PM
The polls haven't been moving much for the past couple months. There's probably a reason for that.

Messier
08-25-2008, 07:19 PM
Some of the biggest bounces ever were for the eventual loser.

Chiefspants
08-25-2008, 07:28 PM
It amazes me how Kerry actually lost 3 points after the 2004 DNC. He never recovered, Bush got a 8 point bounce after the RNC I believe.

banyon
08-25-2008, 07:31 PM
Some of the biggest bounces ever were for the eventual loser.


Yep.

Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DEFD7113EF935A15754C0A96E948260
Published: July 26, 1988

LEAD: In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

This represented a shift in Mr. Dukakis's lead from the 47 percent to 41 percent advantage he held in the last pre-convention Gallup Poll, taken by telephone July 8-10. In that poll, 1,001 registered voters were interviewed.

Nominees usually enjoy a lift in the polls after the nomination. Ed Slaughter, project director at Gallup, pointed out that in 1984, Walter Mondale's standing rose 12 points after the Democratic convention that year. But the improved standing dissipated within ten days, Mr. Slaughter said.

Another poll, conducted in Texas, also showed Mr. Dukakis gaining ground from the convention. The survey of 504 registered voters likely to cast ballots, conducted on Friday and Saturday by Peter Hart, a Democratic poll taker, showed Mr. Dukakis leading Mr. Bush by 50 percent to 40 percent. A survey of that size has a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. A Hart survey of 265 such voters for The Chicago Tribune from July 5 to 9 had shown the race even in Texas - 46 percent for Mr. Dukakis, 46 percent for Mr. Bush, with a sampling error of plus or minus six percentage points. DON'T BITE!!!

Logical
08-25-2008, 07:36 PM
7 to 10% as of Thursday night.

I predict McCain announces his VP on Friday to mitigate the bounce

mlyonsd
08-25-2008, 07:43 PM
I'm predicting no bounce in this forum.

banyon
08-25-2008, 07:54 PM
I'm predicting no bounce in this forum.

No bounce in DEnise for the last 25 years.

Warrior5
08-25-2008, 07:57 PM
I think 10-12% bump.

ROYC75
08-25-2008, 08:17 PM
4 , maybe 5 , until McCain has his...... back to normal again.

dirk digler
08-25-2008, 08:51 PM
-50,000,0000,000,000,000

patteeu
08-26-2008, 06:39 AM
For the good of the country, let's hope it's more of a splatter than a bounce.

tiptap
08-26-2008, 06:59 AM
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/this_convention_really_is_abou.php


...Obama will try to use this convention to increase his standing among Democrats. This convention is NOT aimed at persuading people who call themselves independents and moderates. It's about persuading people who lean left and call themselves Democrats but who, for many reasons, aren't sure about Obama. . .

Infidel Goat
08-26-2008, 07:30 AM
I think one should settle upon a single daily poll to get an idea of what the bounce might truly be. It's fairly obvious that selective use of polls, could demonstrate whatever story you want to illustrate. I'll stick with the Rasmussen Reports daily poll for consistency's sake.

PRE-BIDEN (8/22) (Obama is +1% or +2%)

Matchup without leaners:
45% Obama
43% McCain

Matchup with leaners:
47% Obama
46% McCain

PRE-CONVENTION, BUT WITH BIDEN (8/25/08) (Obama is +3% or +4%)

Matchup without leaners:

46% Obama
42% McCain

Matchup with leaners:

48% Obama
45% McCain

POST-CONVENTION (let's say, 8/30)

I'll guess that Obama is +6% or +7%. That would pretty much match the largest lead he's ever had on Rasmussen (excepting one day in June when he had a +7% +8% lead). I also think it will be back to 2%-3% points by the end of the RNC Convention the following week.

That being said, there will be national polls that show both bigger and smaller leads...

Infidel Goat
08-26-2008, 07:33 AM
Ha. Just as I made the previous post, Rasmussen came out with their latest daily tracking poll.

Dead even both ways:

(8/26/08)
Without leaners:
44% Obama
44% McCain

With leaners:
46% Obama
46% McCain

I'll still stick with my guess for 8/30, though. Michelle Obama was very good last night.

BigCatDaddy
08-26-2008, 08:43 AM
Anything less then a 5% bump spells big trouble for Barry-O.

HonestChieffan
08-27-2008, 08:22 AM
I cannot imagine it being much more than 2-3%. With low viewership and a very boring convention visually, it seems quite anti climactic at this point. Wonder if people have been Obama overloaded with all the media coverage of him and are just turning off the noise?

StcChief
08-27-2008, 09:35 AM
5%-10%

HonestChieffan
08-27-2008, 09:41 AM
Gallup showing his democrat conservative base is weakening. That a bad sign when you need to hold every demo you can

BigCatDaddy
08-27-2008, 09:46 AM
He is falling like a house of cards.

ROYC75
08-27-2008, 10:29 AM
Not even republicans could have predicted the polls going backwards with " The One " is control of ObotNation.

( One famous CP punch line from the past ) This has all the makings of a " Colossal Failure " ..........

dirk digler
08-27-2008, 10:41 AM
Obama picked up 3 points today in the gallup poll

David Axlerod was on TV last night and he said they don't pay any attention to national polls or daily tracking polls but their internal polls are showing a significant Obama lead.

ROYC75
08-27-2008, 10:48 AM
Obama picked up 3 points today in the gallup poll

David Axlerod was on TV last night and he said they don't pay any attention to national polls or daily tracking polls but their internal polls are showing a significant Obama lead.

Sweet, internal polls are misleading, BTA, aren't all polls to an extent ?

BigCatDaddy
08-27-2008, 10:53 AM
Obama picked up 3 points today in the gallup poll

David Axlerod was on TV last night and he said they don't pay any attention to national polls or daily tracking polls but their internal polls are showing a significant Obama lead.

I'll stick with the Independent Pollsters, but thanks Dave.

dirk digler
08-27-2008, 10:57 AM
Link to the gallup poll? I just went to their website and yesterdays is still posted...

and of course the O-Bot leader would say that... if he didn't he would fired.

45-44 Obama

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

Internal polling is usually alot more accurate than polling firms or so I have been told. He did say it was going to be a very close race though just like the last few elections.

BigCatDaddy
08-27-2008, 11:00 AM
45-44 Obama

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

Internal polling is usually alot more accurate than polling firms or so I have been told. He did say it was going to be a very close race though just like the last few elections.

Would you be interested in some ocean front property in St. Joe, MO?

dirk digler
08-27-2008, 11:02 AM
Would you be interested in some ocean front property in St. Joe, MO?

LMAO

Only if it is cheap and a nice view.