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View Full Version : Elections The Upside of Sarah Palin


trndobrd
08-29-2008, 09:22 PM
Since I called this several months ago, I thought I would make the case for Gov Palin as a VP choice.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showpost.php?p=4781917&postcount=27

The talking heads seem to writing off her selection as nothing more than an attempt to woo Clinton voters. This misses the rationale for her selection.

First, consider McCain's constraints for selection of a running mate:

1) Cannot select a running mate associated with the Bush administration.
2) Cannot have running mate near his age.
3) A base that is ready to write off McCain.

What strengths does Palin bring to the table?

1) Geographic: The Obama campaign is attempting to put western states in play. Colorado, Montana, the Dakotas. Add them up and McCain could lose enough electoral college votes to matter. Palin, Idaho native and Alaska Gov will be in a position to appeal to those states in a way a pick from the East Coast would not.

2) Outside the Beltway and against the grain: This election is most decidedly about change. Anchorage is about as far from DC as you can get short of Hawaii. Her confrontations with the Republican establishment are well known. With the prevailing winds against the Rs, an anti-establishment VP is vital to McCain's chances.

3) Appeal to Women voters: With the exception of a few thousand PUMAs, no one with an ounce of political sense believes Palin will garner a large number of Clinton primary voters. Those voters are generally politically active Democrats who will not be interested in crossing party lines, certainly not for a conservative.

The real prize are the unaffiliated and moderate Republican women, many of which are still undecided. Palin will have appeal to Republican women, and can reach out to independent women.

4) Middle Class Appeal: McCain's 'houses issue' spelled the end for Romney. Among the four, Palin is the only one with a personal story from middle America (Obama-community organizer, Biden-US Senate at 29, McCain-Military then politics). She should be able to effectively stump in Michigan, West Virginia and the South with a middle class, populist appeal.

5) Secures the base: Much has been made of the 'enthusiasim gap' between the Democratic and Republican base. Economic conservatives and evangelicals have supported McCain, but more out of 'lesser of two evils' mindset. Palin can build not only support, but generate a sense of enthusiasm among the base. It's the difference between a Republican voting for the R, or putting out a couple yard signs and talking to neighbors about the race.

6) Fundraising: McCain has opted for public financing, but the RNC is still raising money. McCain's pick would clearly show the direction he intends to take the party if elected. Economic and fiscal restraint, or more of the big government conservatism of the Bush administration. With Palin, the answer is the former, which may lead to more interest, and contributions, from the business community.

7) Personality: McCain has an interesting personal story, and would probably be fun to have a couple beers with, but his personality is not such that gets him on the cover of People magazine. Palin has an interesting story and interesting personality that could challenge the Obama's stranglehold on entertainment oriented media.

8) Experience: Of the four, Palin is the only one to have ever vetoed anything. While her political experience is somewhat limited, it is different than the three Senators. Correctly packaged, McCain's legislative experience coupled with Palin's gubernatorial experience could be appealing.

9) Retail politician: During the campaign, the duties of the VP candidate are usually rallying the base, stumping at small venues and generally hitting all the secondary places the Candidate doesn't have the time or desire to visit. Unlike several of the other VP options, this is an environment where Palin will thrive. (I just can't envision Romney calling the pig races as the Ohio state fair)

10) Attractiveness: I'll say it...looks matter. Palin is attractive. McCain, not so much. Another old, white guy would do nothing to balance Obama's obvious charisma and physical appeal.

Obviously, she could very well cumble under the pressure of a national campaign. Her performance at the Republican Convention and the VP debate could be stellar, or the next few weeks could be gaffe filled agony. However, barring a complete meltdown, her upside for McCain goes far beyond trying to capture a few Clinton supporters. Rarely does a presidential candidate have the opportunity to both secure the base, and reach out to a constituency at the same time.

bango
08-29-2008, 09:24 PM
Damn. You fooled me. I thought that this was going to be another thread devoted to her body.

Mecca
08-29-2008, 09:24 PM
God damn it, I was already to post about her boobs or her ass.

bango
08-29-2008, 09:26 PM
God damn it, I was already to post about her boobs or her ass.

Why not both?

sportsman1
08-29-2008, 09:27 PM
Upside has to refer to boobs. Ass is off limits.

bango
08-29-2008, 09:31 PM
Upside has to refer to boobs. Ass is off limits.

Someone needs to try to find a pic of her from the back. It would be nice to be able to judge that side of her. Now I might have to watch the entire Repub Convention just to see her walk away from a podium.

StcChief
08-29-2008, 09:33 PM
Someone needs to try to find a pic of her from the back. It would be nice to be able to judge that side of her. Now I might have to watch the entire Repub Convention just to see her walk away from a podium.
I think everyone will be all over this like Flys on HONEY

Lot's of opportunities will be forth coming

BucEyedPea
08-29-2008, 09:44 PM
She does also bring an outsider quality to DC unlike Biden who is one of the ultimate insiders. But then they have Obama for that role.

Some libertarians are saying Obama is toast with this selection...but not just for this— for dropping his anti-war stand ( including on Russia) and caving on civil liberties. It may have hurt his D base and it cost him the soft libertarian vote ( about 10%). Just saying what some of the buzz is.

irishjayhawk
08-29-2008, 09:45 PM
She does also bring an outsider quality to DC unlike Biden who is one of the ultimate insiders. But then they have Obama for that role.

Some libertarians are saying Obama is toast with this selection...but not just for thisó for dropping his anti-war stand ( including on Russia) and caving on civil liberties. It may have hurt his D base and it cost him the soft libertarian vote ( about 10%). Just saying what some of the buzz is.

?

'Hamas' Jenkins
08-29-2008, 09:49 PM
She does also bring an outsider quality to DC unlike Biden who is one of the ultimate insiders. But then they have Obama for that role.

Some libertarians are saying Obama is toast with this selection...but not just for thisó for dropping his anti-war stand ( including on Russia) and caving on civil liberties. It may have hurt his D base and it cost him the soft libertarian vote ( about 10%). Just saying what some of the buzz is.

This "buzz" you speak of is about as in touch as the Wing T offense.

Mecca
08-29-2008, 09:51 PM
Someone needs to try to find a pic of her from the back. It would be nice to be able to judge that side of her. Now I might have to watch the entire Repub Convention just to see her walk away from a podium.

I found this old pic of her..

http://wonkette.com/assets/resources/2006/12/Miss%20Wasilla%201984.jpg

BucEyedPea
08-29-2008, 09:54 PM
This "buzz" you speak of is about as in touch as the Wing T offense.

Some of those folks were going to vote for Obama.

bango
08-29-2008, 09:56 PM
I found this old pic of her..

http://wonkette.com/assets/resources/2006/12/Miss%20Wasilla%201984.jpg

Is that a nude photo of her? Where is the rest?

Mecca
08-29-2008, 09:58 PM
Here's a side by side..

http://www.usmagazine.com/files/palin-miss-alaska-b.jpg

'Hamas' Jenkins
08-29-2008, 09:59 PM
Some of those folks were going to vote for Obama.

Don't be dense. Obama is not going to commit troops to Georgia, and he's not going to directly intervene against the Russians. He's going to talk to them at the diplomatic table. I.E. power of our example.

If people were going to vote for Obama based upon civil liberties, but support a guy who just picked a woman who wants to teach creationism, and is virulently pro "life", they are beyond stupid.

Yeah, FISA f*cking sucks, and Obama shouldn't have changed his position on it. But they are in essence not only reducing themselves to one issue voters they are reducing themselves to a derivative of a single issue.

ClevelandBronco
08-29-2008, 10:00 PM
Since I called this several months ago, I thought I would make the case for Gov Palin as a VP choice...

This is a really good post.

Unfortunately, we got nothing.

BucEyedPea
08-29-2008, 10:03 PM
Don't be dense. Obama is not going to commit troops to Georgia, and he's not going to directly intervene against the Russians. He's going to talk to them at the diplomatic table. I.E. power of our example.

If people were going to vote for Obama based upon civil liberties, but support a guy who just picked a woman who wants to teach creationism, and is virulently pro "life", they are beyond stupid.

Yeah, FISA f*cking sucks, and Obama shouldn't have changed his position on it. But they are in essence not only reducing themselves to one issue voters they are reducing themselves to a derivative of a single issue.

Well, ahum, if you read their commentary, they were basically saying he's not the real thing. His original statements on Russia were correct, then he changed them as if he was coached. And these folks are not one issue voters...but felt it was as bad sign. And I didn't say these guys are supporting Mac either. Not at all just that Obama lost that vote, which he may need. They still hate Mac.

Oh and as I understand we already have troops in Georgia and have had military advisors there since 2003.

bango
08-29-2008, 10:04 PM
This is a really good post.

Unfortunately, we got nothing.

I agree. I do not like her at all. Well I can not say that with a straight face. She is sexy. That is all for me. She does bring so mcuh more to the table than some hot T and A.

Mecca
08-29-2008, 10:05 PM
I think she's attractive but I could never speak with or vote for her....the creationism shit is ridiculous.

'Hamas' Jenkins
08-29-2008, 10:06 PM
Well, ahum, if you read their commentary, they were basically saying he's not the real thing. His original statements on Russia were correct, then he changed them as if he was coached. And these folks are not one issue voters...but felt it was as bad sign. And I didn't say these guys are supporting Mac either. Not at all just that Obama lost that vote, which he may need. They still hate Mac.

Oh and as I understand we already have troops in Georgia and have had military advisors there since 2003.

Yeah, it's not Vietnam. Thanks for playing though. Somehow, Obama will probably survive without a fraction of the .005% of the general populace that makes up the Lew Rockwell vote. If those people were using that as an excuse, they were just grandstanding and looking for a reason to vote against him anyway.

I'd seriously take that about as seriously as Roy's claims to be an Independent.

Ultra Peanut
08-29-2008, 10:08 PM
My friend, there are some serious stretches in your post. Idaho's red, Alaska's superfluous, and I fail to see how a no-name governor from Alaska really appeals to Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. If you want Geography, at least Ridge and Pawlenty could have made PA or MN closer.

And sure, she has more executive experience than Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and John McCain have combined. That just shows exactly how little that phrase means. She has taken the Inexperience card from the McCain deck and set it on fire.

Here's a article from Ramesh Ponnuru at The National Review expressing concern, and it's well-written despite the (blargh) love for her arch-conservative ways:

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWY0YmM3N2JhMTVkYmI0ZjU0OTBiYTY3NmUyMjgxNTc=

Cold Water on Palin [Ramesh Ponnuru]

Both the pros and the cons are pretty obvious. I’m going to focus on the cons, mostly because conservatives right now seem to be paying them less attention.

The pros: She’s a pro-life conservative reformer from outside Washington, and a woman. The pick signals a boldness and willingness to mix things up that the McCain campaign, like Republicans generally, need.

The cons:

Inexperience. Palin has been governor for about two minutes. Thanks to McCain’s decision, Palin could be commander-in-chief next year. That may strike people as a reckless choice; it strikes me that way. And McCain's age raised the stakes on this issue.

As a political matter, it undercuts the case against Obama. Conservatives are pointing out that it is tricky for the Obama campaign to raise the issue of her inexperience given his own, and note that the presidency matters more than the vice-presidency. But that gets things backward. To the extent the experience, qualifications, and national-security arguments are taken off the table, Obama wins.

And it’s not just foreign policy. Palin has no experience dealing with national domestic issues, either. (On the other hand, as Kate O’Beirne just told me, we know that Palin will be ready for that 3 a.m. phone call: She’ll already be up with her baby.)

Tokenism. Can anyone say with a straight face that Palin would have gotten picked if she were a man?

Compatibility. It doesn’t seem as though McCain knows Palin well. Do we have much reason to think they would work well together?

Debates. Maybe, as Jonah said the other day, Biden will look like a bully going up against her—and maybe she’ll shine. But I can think of a lot of other picks who would have been lower-risk.

I am not even sure that the pick will have quite the galvanizing effect on conservatives that it seems to be having now as it sinks in. The concerns I’ve mentioned here—about her readiness and her credentials—are the kind of thing that many conservative voters take seriously.

Now, as I said, there are pros too. Maybe Palin will be a terrific candidate and vice president. But let’s not underestimate the potential downside.For their part, the Democrats are essentially just ignoring her at the moment. The plan seems to be, and should be, to continue hammering McCain for his horrible judgment and bad policies. His gimmick isn't worth the time or effort.

Logical
08-29-2008, 10:08 PM
She does also bring an outsider quality to DC unlike Biden who is one of the ultimate insiders. But then they have Obama for that role.

Some libertarians are saying Obama is toast with this selection...but not just for thisó for dropping his anti-war stand ( including on Russia) and caving on civil liberties. It may have hurt his D base and it cost him the soft libertarian vote ( about 10%). Just saying what some of the buzz is.If there is such a buzz, you should provide a link. To not do so is bad form.

Logical
08-29-2008, 10:13 PM
By the way, what the hell is a PUMA, I heard that acronym on the news earlier as well?

irishjayhawk
08-29-2008, 10:14 PM
By the way, what the hell is a PUMA, I heard that acronym on the news earlier as well?

Party Unity My Ass.

Logical
08-29-2008, 10:18 PM
Party Unity My Ass.Thanks

HolmeZz
08-29-2008, 10:19 PM
By the way, what the hell is a PUMA, I heard that acronym on the news earlier as well?

Pretty Uptight Male Assholes

irishjayhawk
08-29-2008, 10:20 PM
Sorry, but any upside she has is negated completely by the creationism.

sportsman1
08-29-2008, 10:27 PM
Lord we are in trouble...

trndobrd
08-29-2008, 10:37 PM
My friend, there are some serious stretches in your post. Idaho's red, Alaska's superfluous, and I fail to see how a no-name governor from Alaska really appeals to Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. If you want Geography, at least Ridge and Pawlenty could have made PA or MN closer.

And sure, she has more executive experience than Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and John McCain have combined. That just shows exactly how little that phrase means. She has taken the Inexperience card from the McCain deck and set it on fire.



As the governor of a small (population) western state she will have greater appeal in Wyoming, Colorado and the Dakotas (the states Obama has been making half-hearted efforts to target) than a Senator from Illinois or Delaware. More of a defensive strategy.

Ridge was a pro-choice, non-starter with the base. Pawlenty might have put MN in play, but has the personality of a wet blanket and really adds nothing to the ticket nationally.

Interesting that there is no Southerner on either national ticket.

Experience is in the eye of the beholder. Both Obama and Palin will need to convince voters that they have the experience to be President. Because Obama is at the top of the ticket it is an imperative. For the VP the bar will be lower, albeit only slightly considering McCain's age.

Not to stray too far, but I think the McCain campaign had probably gotten about all the mileage out of the 'experience' issue that they were going to get. Starting with the convention, McCain will need to set out an affirmative agenda of what he intends to do, and start to translate that into how it will benefit middle America.

Ultra Peanut
08-29-2008, 10:55 PM
As the governor of a small (population) western state she will have greater appeal in Wyoming, Colorado and the Dakotas (the states Obama has been making half-hearted efforts to target)Wyoming and the Dakotas are already red. If they manage to go blue, it's just indicative of a landslide victory that's already taking place in the actual swing states.

And again, I fail to see what someone from Alaska is going to be able to do to reel in Colorado that McCain hadn't already covered by being from a neighboring state.

Experience is in the eye of the beholder. Both Obama and Palin will need to convince voters that they have the experience to be President.They actually won't have to focus on that much, is the funny thing. McCain's camp has all but erased that hurdle from existence, if Obama hadn't already cleared it.

Smed1065
08-29-2008, 11:01 PM
Not to stray too far, but I think the McCain campaign had probably gotten about all the mileage out of the 'experience' issue that they were going to get.

And now what do they attack?

I mean they do need a new twist to the campaign ads.

Go 1 on 1 for gaffs?

trndobrd
08-30-2008, 05:16 AM
Wyoming and the Dakotas are already red. If they manage to go blue, it's just indicative of a landslide victory that's already taking place in the actual swing states.

And again, I fail to see what someone from Alaska is going to be able to do to reel in Colorado that McCain hadn't already covered by being from a neighboring state.

They actually won't have to focus on that much, is the funny thing. McCain's camp has all but erased that hurdle from existence, if Obama hadn't already cleared it.

Wyoming, Dakotas and Montana went for Bush in 2000-04, but Obama has been spending in those states. Although you may fail to see it, Palin will have specific appeal in Western Colorado that McCain does not. (Although Romney would have been a stronger candidate in that area).

tiptap
08-30-2008, 06:02 AM
I look for historic similarities. This has similar political stage as the Harding Coolidge shift. Hardings administration was raft with corruption and the rise of big business. Coolidge was elected because he was an honest man. In this case in order to win for the Republicans, considering who represents them now in the White House, they have to have a squeaky clean candidate where it comes to lobbyists and special interests. Palin is that to the T.

I don't know how this will work out but she is the protracted choice that gives this ticket a chance to win.

tmax63
08-30-2008, 07:05 AM
She comes from a fuel/energy producing state and would have a better feel for energy policy than probably any of the candidates mentioned. When talking about CO's energy production and potential I'd probably like her ideas better than an east coast DC insider. Again though, I need to do more research on her and find out more about her and she does immediately get the "Candidate I'd most like to see Nekkid" vote.