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View Full Version : Elections Obama Speech and Palin pick = canceling each other out?


wazu
08-30-2008, 11:28 AM
The first polling day after Obama speech and Palin pick, and nothing changes from previous day...

Gallup: Obama +8
Rassmussen: Obama +4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

I'm guessing Obama scooped up some Hillary supporters with a great speech the other night. I know one Hillary supporter who said she felt good about Obama for the first time after seeing that speech. Palin probably scooped up a few social conservatives and libertarians to offset the difference. And for those that moved from one spot to another, there were probably a few others that dropped into the undecided category.

irishjayhawk
08-30-2008, 11:30 AM
Who gives a shit about polls. They're useless.

irishjayhawk
08-30-2008, 11:34 AM
Palin's pick isn't accurately played out in the polls yet... those are 3 day rolling averages... Monday will give a better idea... Secondly... the Republican Convetion in Monday-Thursday and that will help McCain.

Wait....

But when people say how your polls aren't accurate yet, you whine and call BS.

wazu
08-30-2008, 11:44 AM
Wait....

But when people say how your polls aren't accurate yet, you whine and call BS.

I don't think they are accurate for where we'll end up, but I think they are a decent statistical measure of where things stand today. I'm sure they'll go in all kinds of different directions over the next 67 days. I just think it's interesting that nothing really moved yesterday. That was probably the wildest 24-hour period of the entire campaign so far.

Direckshun
08-30-2008, 01:21 PM
I don't think Palin cancels out the Dem convention, I think the GOP convention will.

I'd say a 6 point bounce (to average those two together) is pretty well reflective of a solid Dem convention. In my lifetime, Dem conventions haven't bounced well at all. Kerry had what I thought was a brilliant convention speech in 2004 and didn't get any bounce whatsoever.

I think the general notion of the Democratic convention -- that tens of thousands would pack themselves into a stadium to hear Obama's message, and 38 million more on TV -- resounded more than any particular words spoken at the convention. I think Palin neutralized us from fawning over that and having that bounce bloat to 10 or more points.

But the poll have been really unkind on Palin so far. Only about 4 in 10 Americans polled thought she had what it took for the office. I predict zero bounce for McCain off Palin.

However, things will even up again after the GOP convention. Republicans typically bounce pretty well after conventions. Bush got a 10 point bounce in 2004, and I thought it was one of the most vacuous events I've ever witnessed.

wazu
08-30-2008, 01:27 PM
I don't think Palin cancels out the Dem convention...

Not saying she does. The convention had already given the Dems a 4-8 point bump going into Obama's speech. I just find it remarkable that there was no move further up on the day following what I though was a pretty great speech. The only thing I see that could blunt the impact of Obama's speech would be the selection of Palin.

irishjayhawk
08-30-2008, 01:34 PM
Not saying she does. The convention had already given the Dems a 4-8 point bump going into Obama's speech. I just find it remarkable that there was no move further up on the day following what I though was a pretty great speech. The only thing I see that could blunt the impact of Obama's speech would be the selection of Palin.

Or the fact that bumps aren't usually visible until later. That's why Rex always gets called out for posting ZOMG NO BUMP FOR NOBAMA!!!! the day after something happens.

wazu
08-30-2008, 01:37 PM
Or the fact that bumps aren't usually visible until later. That's why Rex always gets called out for posting ZOMG NO BUMP FOR NOBAMA!!!! the day after something happens.

I guess. Although that bump was pretty predictable and visible following Days 2 and 3 of the convention. Day 1 was kind of a flop, so no change after that seemed meaningless. Day 4 was a smash success, though.

Maybe it'll take another few days like you've said. But it's fun to speculate while we wait.

DaneMcCloud
08-30-2008, 01:38 PM
Who gives a shit about polls. They're useless.

QFT.

irishjayhawk
08-30-2008, 01:39 PM
I guess. Although that bump was pretty predictable and visible following Days 2 and 3 of the convention. Day 1 was kind of a flop, so no change after that seemed meaningless. Day 4 was a smash success, though.

Maybe it'll take another few days like you've said. But it's fun to speculate while we wait.

Yeah, I really have no idea if a bump will come later or not. But I just don't see how polls are supposed to jump like people expect them to only 1 day after.

That said, Palin's selection will help decrease said bump no matter what.

whoman69
08-30-2008, 03:50 PM
Picking someone who is a polar opposite of Hillary in order to pick up her voters is going to prove more difficult. I don't think that McCain really thought this pick out.