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View Full Version : Elections New Zogby Poll has McCain/Palin Ticket over Obama/Biden


Bearcat2005
08-30-2008, 09:09 PM
McCain/Palin 47% to 45% Even though I wouldn't take these National polls to seriously until 30 days out, it still has to be good news to the McCain camp considering this is AFTER the dem convention and BEFORE the GOP convention. Lt's now see what happens with New Orleans during the GOP convention. Rumors are McCain may not be there and will be down by the hurricane...who knows.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html

Bill Parcells
08-30-2008, 09:11 PM
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Ultra Peanut
08-30-2008, 09:13 PM
So a Zogby poll of "likely voters" (which undercounts the demographics Obama dominates in) puts them in a statistical tie, and you can't see their crosstabs without paying them $100.

wazu
08-30-2008, 09:14 PM
I'll add it into the fold when I see it on realclearpolitics.

Bearcat2005
08-30-2008, 09:16 PM
So a Zogby poll of "likely voters" (which undercounts the demographics Obama dominates in) puts them in a statistical tie, and you can't see their crosstabs without paying them $100.

Likely voters has had a better reflection in the past in regards to actual results as compared to registered voters. Many don't vote at all considering this is not a proportional representation system.

Bearcat2005
08-30-2008, 09:17 PM
I'll add it into the fold when I see it on realclearpolitics.

They havent added it yet to the averaged out general election poll yet, this one just came up on drudge.

wazu
08-30-2008, 09:17 PM
Likely voters has had a better reflection in the past in regards to actual results as compared to registered voters. Many don't vote at all considering this is not a proportional representation system.

Yeah, but I think Obama is a difference maker here. You know that black voters are going to turn out in force to vote for Obama. Young people as well. It's an election that will be incomparable to previous ones.

Ultra Peanut
08-30-2008, 09:18 PM
Likely voters has had a better reflection in the pastThat's the past, though. The problem with not adjusting likely voters to take into account the scores of Under-30 and black voters Obama drew to the polls in primaries with his campaign's incredible ground game is that numbers from 4+ years ago are not an accurate reflection of the circumstances come November.

wazu
08-30-2008, 09:19 PM
They havent added it yet to the averaged out general election poll yet, this one just came up on drudge.

Okay, that legitimizes it somewhat. Seems too good to be true, though. Guess I'm a pessimist. (A lifetime of being a Chiefs fan and recently Ron Paul fan did this to me.)

Bearcat2005
08-30-2008, 09:20 PM
Yeah, but I think Obama is a difference maker here. You know that black voters are going to turn out in force to vote for Obama. Young people as well. It's an election that will be incomparable to previous ones.

I am not sold on the young people turning out still, I know Obama is a charismatic figure for many of them however I point back to my undergrad days when the "entire" campus was anti-bush and strong for Kerry. They had all sorts of media going on, even Michael Moore showing up. However the Bush votes on campus actually tied the amount of Kerry votes. I still don't see the youth vote as that reliable, maybe they will be this year but they haven't ever been in the past.

Bearcat2005
08-30-2008, 09:21 PM
Okay, that legitimizes it somewhat. Seems too good to be true, though. Guess I'm a pessimist. (A lifetime of being a Chiefs fan and recently Ron Paul fan did this to me.)

LOL! I hear you same boat here.

Logical
08-30-2008, 09:23 PM
Zogby is notably unreliable, they are the ones who had Kerry up by 10 points the day before the election.

Bearcat2005
08-30-2008, 09:24 PM
That's the past, though. The problem with not adjusting likely voters to take into account the scores of Under-30 and black voters Obama drew to the polls in primaries with his campaign's incredible ground game is that numbers from 4+ years ago are not an accurate reflection of the circumstances come November.

Well when they ask these questions for polling at the end of the convo they ask how likely are you to vote, thats where they get that info, many registered voters are apathetic as I am sure you know. I used to do some work for Gallop. However you say that "likely voters" are the past? I remember the "likely voters" polls being much closer in the Feb. and March months of the Dem. Primary than in Dec. in Iowa.

bango
08-30-2008, 09:25 PM
How far behind are Barr and the other Third Party Tickets? Is there still enough time left for them to catch up?

Bearcat2005
08-30-2008, 09:27 PM
Zogby is notably unreliable, they are the ones who had Kerry up by 10 points the day before the election.

Well, again, if other polls show a stable push toward McCain from the Obama bounce then this one I am sure would have more validity, however this one is the first so we don't have that info. If Zogby was notably unreliable I wonder how they can still be in business? Some organizations or political groups must see some validity in them. I usually look at Gallop, Ras., and Zogby for the national polling on issues.

Bearcat2005
08-30-2008, 09:28 PM
How far behind are Barr and the other Third Party Tickets? Is there still enough time left for them to catch up?

I saw a gallup one on RCP that had Barr with 2 and Nader with 2 about a week ago.

bango
08-30-2008, 09:30 PM
I saw a gallup one on RCP that had Barr with 2 and Nader with 2 about a week ago.

So you are saying that there is still a chance that they just might be able to pull it off?

Logical
08-30-2008, 09:31 PM
The other problem with all the polls is that it is now almost uncommon for people to have home phones and these polls rely on that. They cannot call cells.

NCarlsCorner2
08-30-2008, 09:31 PM
I saw a gallup one on RCP that had Barr with 2 and Nader with 2 about a week ago.

Zogby has Barr at 5 and Nader at 2.

Bearcat2005
08-30-2008, 09:32 PM
Zogby has Barr at 5 and Nader at 2.

Okay.....

Bearcat2005
08-30-2008, 09:34 PM
The other problem with all the polls is that it is now almost uncommon for people to have home phones and these polls rely on that. They cannot call cells.

Yea I know I always thought that, however its been crazy this year b/c I have been called twice this year concerning polling and all I have is a cell.

bango
08-30-2008, 09:38 PM
Seeing how Zogby has Barr with three more points and Nader with the same I will have to go with them. The other poll must have something against Barr if they are going to take points away from him. What are they trying to hide?

RINGLEADER
08-31-2008, 02:09 AM
Yeah, but I think Obama is a difference maker here. You know that black voters are going to turn out in force to vote for Obama. Young people as well. It's an election that will be incomparable to previous ones.

Well they are over-weighting (as I think they should, BTW) with a stronger Dem turnout. Dems traditionally poll higher on registered voter surveys and less on likely voter surveys because many of their strongest groups don't turn out. This year very well could be different.

beer bacon
08-31-2008, 02:55 AM
Zogby is a horribly inaccurate polling outfit that no one takes seriously. Zogby Interactive is a completely inaccurate ON-LINE polling organization. Zogby Interactive makes regular Zogby polling look good. for instance, a recent Zogby interactive poll had Obama beating McCain...in Arkansas.

beer bacon
08-31-2008, 02:59 AM
I'll add it into the fold when I see it on realclearpolitics.

You won't ever find a Zogby Interactive poll included in RCP's polling averages. RCP considers them to be too inaccurate.

beer bacon
08-31-2008, 03:03 AM
The other problem with all the polls is that it is now almost uncommon for people to have home phones and these polls rely on that. They cannot call cells.

Zogby Interactive polls are not done by telephone. They are done on-line. You can register to participate in Zogby International's highly scientific on-line polling here:

http://interactive.zogby.com/pollregistration/registration/

Ultra Peanut
08-31-2008, 03:07 AM
a recent Zogby interactive poll had Obama beating McCain...in Arkansas.Jesus Christ.

HolmeZz
08-31-2008, 11:50 AM
Jesus Christ.

It had Obama beating McCain in Arizona too.

Calcountry
08-31-2008, 03:54 PM
Yeah, but I think Obama is a difference maker here. You know that black voters are going to turn out in force to vote for Obama. Young people as well. It's an election that will be incomparable to previous ones.
Right, and if McCain still wins this election it will be because the country is racist, and we stole the election, we get it.

jAZ
08-31-2008, 05:08 PM
Zogby is a horribly inaccurate polling outfit that no one takes seriously. Zogby Interactive is a completely inaccurate ON-LINE polling organization. Zogby Interactive makes regular Zogby polling look good. for instance, a recent Zogby interactive poll had Obama beating McCain...in Arkansas.
I think that's a bit of an overstatement, but all of the polling techniques are meaningless at this point.

Bearcat2005
08-31-2008, 07:20 PM
You won't ever find a Zogby Interactive poll included in RCP's polling averages. RCP considers them to be too inaccurate.

Really.....thats interesting, look what I found.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Make sure you scroll down to polling data. This is from the general election poll that is averaged in with RCP National Average. Its the 8/14-8/16 one that is averaged in. There is also more Zogby polls throughout this election that have been averaged in.

beer bacon
08-31-2008, 07:24 PM
Really.....thats interesting, look what I found.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Make sure you scroll down to polling data. This is from the general election poll that is averaged in with RCP National Average. Its the 8/14-8/16 one that is averaged in.

Reuters/Zogby polls are not the same thing as Zogby Interactive polls. The first uses more standard phone based polls and has a history of inaccuracy. The second uses internet based polling and has a record of extreme inaccuracy.

Zogby's polls are conducted by phone.

Zogby Interactive's polls are conducted on-line.

Bearcat2005
08-31-2008, 07:28 PM
Reuters/Zogby polls are not the same thing as Zogby Interactive polls. The first uses more standard phone based polls and has a history of inaccuracy. The second uses internet based polling and has a record of extreme inaccuracy.

Zogby's polls are conducted by phone.

Zogby Interactive's polls are conducted on-line.

Don't you think if Zogby polls were so inaccurate that John Zogby would be out of business b/c political org. and other groups would see the information as lacking merit?

beer bacon
08-31-2008, 07:30 PM
Don't you think if Zogby polls were so inaccurate that John Zogby would be out of business b/c political org. and other groups would see the information as lacking merit?

Lots of companies manage to sell crappy products. It is called marketing.

Bearcat2005
08-31-2008, 07:30 PM
Reuters/Zogby polls are not the same thing as Zogby Interactive polls. The first uses more standard phone based polls and has a history of inaccuracy. The second uses internet based polling and has a record of extreme inaccuracy.

Zogby's polls are conducted by phone.

Zogby Interactive's polls are conducted on-line.

The poll I referred to had the following...


In the Reuters/Zogby poll, Obama had a 5-point lead in June, shortly after he clinched the Democratic nomination, and an 8-point lead on McCain in May.

The telephone poll of 1,089 likely voters had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.


So it was just over the phone, but honestly what is the point of a poll if it is completely inaccurate, the private sector would weed that firm out or at least that method of polling.

Bearcat2005
08-31-2008, 07:31 PM
Lots of companies manage to sell crappy products. It is called marketing.

The point is they still have to do a productive job measuring the market for products. Its called profit.

***SPRAYER
08-31-2008, 07:31 PM
In the Reuters/Zogby poll, Obama had a 5-point lead in June, shortly after he clinched the Democratic nomination, and an 8-point lead on McCain in May.

Sounds like B.O. is rolling backwards.

Bearcat2005
08-31-2008, 07:33 PM
Sounds like B.O. is rolling backwards.

Oh that was an old poll from a week or two ago before his bounce. However here is a CNN poll from today and on RCP.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Obama 49 McCain 48

memyselfI
08-31-2008, 07:33 PM
McCain/Palin 47% to 45% Even though I wouldn't take these National polls to seriously until 30 days out, it still has to be good news to the McCain camp considering this is AFTER the dem convention and BEFORE the GOP convention. Lt's now see what happens with New Orleans during the GOP convention. Rumors are McCain may not be there and will be down by the hurricane...who knows.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html


Apparently the new CNN poll shows NObama with no bounce from the glitzy and glam convention but McCain got a bounce with Palin. :D

beer bacon
08-31-2008, 07:34 PM
The poll I referred to had the following...


In the Reuters/Zogby poll, Obama had a 5-point lead in June, shortly after he clinched the Democratic nomination, and an 8-point lead on McCain in May.

The telephone poll of 1,089 likely voters had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.


So it was just over the phone, but honestly what is the point of a poll if it is completely inaccurate, the private sector would weed that firm out or at least that method of polling.

Your still using it aren't you? Most people ignore them because they aren't based in reality. Some people keep using them. Maybe because they don't know how inaccurate they are. Maybe because they just want a poll that they think proves a point they are trying to make.

Bearcat2005
08-31-2008, 07:34 PM
Apparently the new CNN poll shows NObama with no bounce from the glitzy and glam convention but McCain got a bounce with Palin. :D

Yea I mentioned that above, its a CNN poll. I hope no one has a problem with me posting that link. Apparently Zogby should be out of business.

***SPRAYER
08-31-2008, 07:35 PM
Apparently the new CNN poll shows NObama with no bounce from the glitzy and glam convention but McCain got a bounce with Palin. :D


The fact that the Dem ticket isn't up by double digits is--- IMO--- an indication that the R's will win it in November.

***SPRAYER
08-31-2008, 07:35 PM
Yea I mentioned that above, its a CNN poll. I hope no one has a problem with me posting that link. Apparently Zogby should be out of business.

Don't let it happen again.

beer bacon
08-31-2008, 07:37 PM
Apparently the new CNN poll shows NObama with no bounce from the glitzy and glam convention but McCain got a bounce with Palin. :D

Apparently you didn't do any research. The new CNN poll shows Obama up 49-48, and the last one before that showed the race tied 47-47:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/31/cnn-poll-obama-49-mccain-48/

So, according to that poll the two events canceled each other out. It is pretty stupid to release a poll without making the crosstabs available. I also find it hard to believe that only 3% of the voting population is undecided right now.

irishjayhawk
08-31-2008, 07:38 PM
The fact that the Dem ticket isn't up by double digits is--- IMO--- an indication that the R's will win it in November.

Or that the media is doing its job by keeping people's opinions rather centered to pull the race closer.

Or it could be that Palin caught everyone off guard.

Or it could be that negative works and OBama will realize that.


It could be anything at this point.

Polls are worthless.

Bearcat2005
08-31-2008, 07:38 PM
Your still using it aren't you? Most people ignore them because they aren't based in reality. Some people keep using them. Maybe because they don't know how inaccurate they are. Maybe because they just want a poll that they think proves a point they are trying to make.

The poll i cited on RCP was the phone based one. What point was I trying to prove? I was just posting news. I think you are misreading what my intentions were. The thread poll was Zogby, the RCP is Reuters/Zogby.

Bearcat2005
08-31-2008, 07:40 PM
Don't let it happen again.

I tell you what, I won't! lol

beer bacon
08-31-2008, 07:45 PM
The poll i cited on RCP was the phone based one. What point was I trying to prove? I was just posting news. I think you are misreading what my intentions were. The thread poll was Zogby, the RCP is Reuters/Zogby.

Yes? That poll is not the same poll in the thread header. My point is that the Reuters/Zogby poll from 8/14-16 bears no resemblance to the Zogby Interactive poll in the thread header.

Bearcat2005
08-31-2008, 07:53 PM
Yes? That poll is not the same poll in the thread header. My point is that the Reuters/Zogby poll from 8/14-16 bears no resemblance to the Zogby Interactive poll in the thread header.

Yes and my point is I am just posting news and you in the above post are trying to tell me that I am trying to prove a point.....okay. Also I just find it hard to believe that this polling method lacks complete merit, if it did there would be no point in doing it. Obviously someone see's a point if they are going to invest time and money in crating the poll. Zogby has a job correct? He recieves client's correct? I am sure there is SOME merit to that method, if there was no merit what so ever what would be the point? Thats my point if I have one about this discussion. I could care less who is at the top of the poll or not, that wasn't the intention of the post.

beer bacon
08-31-2008, 07:55 PM
Yes and my point is I am just posting news and you in the above post are trying to tell me that I am trying to prove a point.....okay. Also I just find it hard to believe that this polling method lacks complete merit, if it did there would be no point in doing it. Obviously someone see's a point if they are going to invest time and money in crating the poll. Zogby has a job correct? He recieves client's correct? I am sure there is SOME merit to that method, if there was no merit what so ever what would be the point? Thats my point if I have one about this discussion. I could care less who is at the top of the poll or not, that wasn't the intention of the post.

Yes, obviously anyone who does polling does accurate polling based upon the simple fact that they are, in fact, polling.

Logical
08-31-2008, 07:57 PM
Yes and my point is I am just posting news and you in the above post are trying to tell me that I am trying to prove a point.....okay. Also I just find it hard to believe that this polling method lacks complete merit, if it did there would be no point in doing it. Obviously someone see's a point if they are going to invest time and money in crating the poll. Zogby has a job correct? He recieves client's correct? I am sure there is SOME merit to that method, if there was no merit what so ever what would be the point? Thats my point if I have one about this discussion. I could care less who is at the top of the poll or not, that wasn't the intention of the post.

I find it strange the RCP did not publish it at all.

<table style="width: 600px;" class="table-races" id="table-1" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="600"><tbody><tr><td colspan="6" style="width: 600px;">Monday, September 01</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 160px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Race</td><td style="width: 150px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Poll</td><td style="width: 185px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Results</td><td style="width: 115px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Spread</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">National (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">CNN (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/31/cnn-poll-obama-49-mccain-48/)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama 49, McCain 48 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama +1</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">National (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/obama_vs_mccain_with_barr_nader-957.html)</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">CNN (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/31/cnn-poll-obama-49-mccain-48/)</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Obama 46, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 2 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/obama_vs_mccain_with_barr_nader-957.html)</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Obama +2</td></tr><tr><td colspan="6" style="width: 600px;">Sunday, August 31</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 160px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Race</td><td style="width: 150px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Poll</td><td style="width: 185px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Results</td><td style="width: 115px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Spread</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">National (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Gallup Tracking (http://www.gallup.com/poll/109903/Gallup-Daily-ObamaBiden-Ticket-Leads-Points.aspx)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama 48, McCain 42 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama +6</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">National (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Rasmussen Tracking (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll)</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Obama 49, McCain 46 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Obama +3</td></tr></tbody></table>

Bearcat2005
08-31-2008, 07:58 PM
Yes, obviously anyone who does polling does accurate polling based upon the simple fact that they are, in fact, polling.

I never said that method was completely accurate but I am SURE it gives a close indication. Apparently others agree with me b/c Zogby is still in business. He still get clients and makes a profit, business are not going to waste there money for fun, I don't think they are in the business of charity to keep completely inaccurate pollsters afloat.

Bearcat2005
08-31-2008, 08:00 PM
I find it strange the RCP did not publish it at all.

<table style="width: 600px;" class="table-races" id="table-1" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="600"><tbody><tr><td colspan="6" style="width: 600px;">Monday, September 01</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 160px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Race</td><td style="width: 150px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Poll</td><td style="width: 185px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Results</td><td style="width: 115px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Spread</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">National (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">CNN (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/31/cnn-poll-obama-49-mccain-48/)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama 49, McCain 48 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama +1</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">National (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/obama_vs_mccain_with_barr_nader-957.html)</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">CNN (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/31/cnn-poll-obama-49-mccain-48/)</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Obama 46, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 2 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/obama_vs_mccain_with_barr_nader-957.html)</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Obama +2</td></tr><tr><td colspan="6" style="width: 600px;">Sunday, August 31</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 160px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Race</td><td style="width: 150px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Poll</td><td style="width: 185px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Results</td><td style="width: 115px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Spread</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">National (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Gallup Tracking (http://www.gallup.com/poll/109903/Gallup-Daily-ObamaBiden-Ticket-Leads-Points.aspx)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama 48, McCain 42 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama +6</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">National (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Rasmussen Tracking (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll)</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Obama 49, McCain 46 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Obama +3</td></tr></tbody></table>


If you click the National link you will see a Reuters/Zogby poll. Just scroll down to polling data. The question above is referring to the point of polling, not the thread title.

Logical
08-31-2008, 08:03 PM
If you click the National link you will see a Reuters/Zogby poll. Just scroll down to polling data. The question above is referring to the point of polling, not the thread title.You might be right but why does it not show McCain leading? Everything shows Obama leading by at least 1? :shrug:

Ultra Peanut
08-31-2008, 08:44 PM
If you click the National link you will see a Reuters/Zogby poll. Just scroll down to polling data. The question above is referring to the point of polling, not the thread title.How many times do you have to be told that Reuters/Zogby is not the same as Zogby Interactive?

***SPRAYER
08-31-2008, 09:07 PM
You might be right but why does it not show McCain leading? Everything shows Obama leading by at least 1? :shrug:


1.

ROFL

SBK
08-31-2008, 09:10 PM
1.

ROFL

He needs to be up by what, about 10? Kerry was up 10% right up the election and lost.....

***SPRAYER
08-31-2008, 09:13 PM
He needs to be up by what, about 10? Kerry was up 10% right up the election and lost.....


B.O. is toast, IMO.

Ultra Peanut
08-31-2008, 09:14 PM
He needs to be up by what, about 10? Kerry was up 10% right up the election and lost.....Uh, no. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html
)

RCP Average 10/27 - 11/1 Bush +1.5

Messier
08-31-2008, 09:14 PM
B.O. is toast, IMO.

Could be. It's 50-50.

beer bacon
08-31-2008, 09:15 PM
He needs to be up by what, about 10? Kerry was up 10% right up the election and lost.....

Except not:

http://www.pollingreport2.com/wh2004a.htm

***SPRAYER
08-31-2008, 09:30 PM
Except not:

http://www.pollingreport2.com/wh2004a.htm


Was that a Zogby Interactive Poll?

jAZ
09-01-2008, 02:01 AM
He needs to be up by what, about 10? Kerry was up 10% right up the election and lost.....

I thought I remembered something similar about JK and GWB in 04, but I was wrong. He was down to Bush in pre-election polling. I suspect you are thinking of the same thing it turned out I was thinking about. Exit polling.

Ultra Peanut
09-01-2008, 02:51 AM
I thought I remembered something similar about JK and GWB in 04, but I was wrong. He was down to Bush in pre-election polling. I suspect you are thinking of the same thing it turned out I was thinking about. Exit polling.And exit polling, of course, is an incredibly chaotic process in which interns ask "random" people questions when they're trying to get back to work/school.