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View Full Version : Elections The Worst 24 Hours In Democratic Presidential History????


recxjake
09-10-2008, 07:09 PM
1

NewChief
09-10-2008, 07:10 PM
You need a little perspective, junior.

That being said, if this is the worst 24 hours of DNC presidential history, I'll take it.

SBK
09-10-2008, 07:11 PM
Maybe jAZ should start a poll as to when Biden will drop off the ticket......

'Hamas' Jenkins
09-10-2008, 07:14 PM
I love the duplicity of you cocksuckers.

Obama is presumptuous and elitist, and Biden makes a self-depricating remark to put over the service of Hillary and now he's saying that he's not as qualified as her.

Ultra Peanut
09-10-2008, 07:15 PM
YOU GET JOKEZ

Because you are one, clearly.

SBK
09-10-2008, 07:15 PM
I love the duplicity of you cocksuckers.

Obama is presumptuous and elitist, and Biden makes a self-depricating remark to put over the service of Hillary and now he's saying that he's not as qualified as her.

He said what every person in America knows, she would have been a better pick.

wazu
09-10-2008, 07:16 PM
I really think the worst 24 hours this year started the minute Palin took the podium at the convention.

Mecca
09-10-2008, 07:16 PM
I might enjoy this forum if Jake and Roy couldn't start threads.

alnorth
09-10-2008, 07:17 PM
2. Biden Says Hillary would have been a better VP pick...


I'm going to go ahead and say it. The way this particular line is being portrayed is not fair to Biden. He was responding to a man in the audience who had some nasty comments about Hillary, he was trying to defend her and probably went a little too far with his praise. but it probably doesnt matter.

The politicians know the rules of this high-stakes game and they have to very carefully watch their words. However, I think this one is going to quickly blow over, it wont erupt like the lipstick gaffe.

Ultra Peanut
09-10-2008, 07:20 PM
4. Polling.. Obama is tanking...You do realize that his convention bump, which didn't even do much to put him in good position in most key battleground states, is already stagnating, right?

Of course you don't.

'Hamas' Jenkins
09-10-2008, 07:20 PM
He said what every person in America knows, she would have been a better pick.

And had he picked her, all you wing nuts would have done is run your mouth about how it motivated the far right to vote due to their visceral hatreds of the Clintons. It would have motivated "the base" unlike no other.

'Hamas' Jenkins
09-10-2008, 07:22 PM
Dakota's, Montana...

You are worried about these states. Think about that for a second.

Calcountry
09-10-2008, 07:22 PM
Maybe jAZ should start a poll as to when Biden will drop off the ticket......If he did that, and put Hillary on the ticket, Game changer.

Calcountry
09-10-2008, 07:24 PM
You are worried about these states. Think about that for a second.
I am going to sleep comfortably with thise states as red as red can be.

Rex jake might be worried, but I am not.

No way gun toten hunting states are going to vote for Hussein.

Calcountry
09-10-2008, 07:25 PM
You realize that today is the first day... the entire election where McCain is WINNING in New Mexico? He has opened up his lead in Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, Dakota's, Montana...Obama is in free fall.

I believe his campaign just polled me on the phone.

Ultra Peanut
09-10-2008, 07:26 PM
Obama is in free fall.

I believe his campaign just polled me on the phone.OH GOD HIS OPPONENT GOT A MARGINAL CONVENTION BOUNCE

OHHHHH GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

alnorth
09-10-2008, 07:29 PM
And had he picked her, all you wing nuts would have done is run your mouth about how it motivated the far right to vote due to their visceral hatreds of the Clintons. It would have motivated "the base" unlike no other.

The base isnt going to elect McCain. Obama is in trouble because of the swing of independent women. For his sake, he'll need to work to make sure it was a temporary convention bounce because he probably cant win if he loses that block.

In retrospect, Hillary obviously would have helped Obama a great deal. She has obvious drawbacks, but she isnt hated by the middle. McCain may not have nominated Palin, or if he had it certainly would have had less of an impact.

However, 50/50 hindsight is easy. There's no video instant replay in this game. I probably would not have picked Hillary either. Seriously, who REALLY thought the GOP would have one of their best political weeks in recent party history? Who REALLY thought Obama would be in a real race right now?

I sure as hell didnt. Obama probably assumed the race was his to lose and he could be free to just focus on not doing something horribly immoral or illegal for 2 months and just pick someone who could possibly blunt an experience attack without really needing to worry about anything else.

'Hamas' Jenkins
09-10-2008, 07:31 PM
The base isnt going to elect McCain. Obama is in trouble because of the swing of independent women. For his sake, he'll need to work to make sure it was a temporary convention bounce because he probably cant win if he loses that block.

In retrospect, Hillary obviously would have helped Obama a great deal. She has obvious drawbacks, but she isnt hated by the middle. McCain may not have nominated Palin, or if he had it certainly would have had less of an impact.

However, 50/50 hindsight is easy. There's no video instant replay in this game. I probably would not have picked Hillary either. Seriously, who REALLY thought the GOP would have one of their best political weeks in recent party history? Who REALLY thought Obama would be in a real race right now?

I sure as hell didnt. Obama probably assumed the race was his to lose and he could be free to just focus on not doing something horribly immoral or illegal for 2 months and just pick someone who could possibly blunt an experience attack without really needing to worry about anything else.

You do realize that Palin polls far worse among women than she does among men, right?

Calcountry
09-10-2008, 07:32 PM
OH GOD HIS OPPONENT GOT A MARGINAL CONVENTION BOUNCE

OHHHHH GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDgame changer

Mecca
09-10-2008, 07:32 PM
You do realize that Palin polls far worse among women than she does among men, right?

He's gonna tell you you're wrong, here it comes.

Calcountry
09-10-2008, 07:33 PM
You do realize that Palin polls far worse among women than she does among men, right?How does she so with white women?

BigRock
09-10-2008, 07:33 PM
- JFK
+ LBJ

I wasn't alive, but that probably wasn't a good 24 hours.

'Hamas' Jenkins
09-10-2008, 07:34 PM
- JFK
+ LBJ

I wasn't alive, but that probably wasn't a good 24 hours.

You also forgot about any 24 hours in which Mondale was the nominee.

"So is today the worst day of your life?"
"Yeah."
"That's messed up."

'Hamas' Jenkins
09-10-2008, 07:35 PM
How does she so with white women?

It must be all those uppity negroes that already vote 90% democratic. My bad.

BigRock
09-10-2008, 07:36 PM
The 24 hours around SNL running this sketch:

http://snltranscripts.jt.org/02/02fdonahue.phtml

Ultra Peanut
09-10-2008, 07:37 PM
game changerThat's Sarah Palin's moniker, dumbshit.

Obama is in trouble because of the swing of independent women.These swings must be occurring in states that are already solidly red. Huh, that's awful, I guess.

SBK
09-10-2008, 07:37 PM
And had he picked her, all you wing nuts would have done is run your mouth about how it motivated the far right to vote due to their visceral hatreds of the Clintons. It would have motivated "the base" unlike no other.

The Clintons are hated on the right no doubt about it. I think it's fairly obvious that he botched the pick.

To be honest, I think the democrats would have had a better shot at the White House with Hillary on top of the ticket.

Dallas Chief
09-10-2008, 07:38 PM
It must be all those uppity negroes that already vote 90% democratic. My bad.

Higher for this go around? I've heard like 95-97%.

dirk digler
09-10-2008, 07:38 PM
You are worried about these states. Think about that for a second.

Yep. You notice that McCain is almost always campaigning in states that Bush won in 04 while Obama is campaigning in those states as well. Obama is playing offense McCain is playing defense.

As far as the worst 24 hours in Presidential History I think that is a silly statement. Watching the news tonight all the commentators even Bill O'Reilly are taking the McCain campaign to task for faux outrage. This is making the McCain campaign look like whiny girls.

Ultra Peanut
09-10-2008, 07:39 PM
Yep. You notice that McCain is almost always campaigning in states that Bush won in 04 while Obama is campaigning in those states as well. Obama is playing offense McCain is playing defense.

As far as the worst 24 hours in Presidential History I think that is a silly statement. Watching the news tonight all the commentators even Bill O'Reilly are taking the McCain campaign to task for faux outrage. This is making the McCain campaign look like whiny girls.Guess who's on Letterman tonight?

Guess who hammered home that, if there were any direct correlation intended, it would have been that Palin is the lipstick and McCain's failed policies are the pig?

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED

orange
09-10-2008, 07:48 PM
The first time I've agreed with Biden 100% during this campaign.

alnorth
09-10-2008, 07:50 PM
You do realize that Palin polls far worse among women than she does among men, right?

irrelevant. Obama was killing McCain among independent women, which is exactly what he had to do.

For the last several elections, men have basically been solidly Republican, and the unaffiliated women picked the winner. If the men ever drew 50/50, the GOP would be toast.

All the other forces, groups, and blocks cancel each other out. When the independent women go Democrat, the Dems win. The GOP only needs to be competitive with that group to have a close race.

orange
09-10-2008, 07:51 PM
Yep. You notice that McCain is almost always campaigning in states that Bush won in 04 while Obama is campaigning in those states as well. Obama is playing offense McCain is playing defense.

As far as the worst 24 hours in Presidential History I think that is a silly statement. Watching the news tonight all the commentators even Bill O'Reilly are taking the McCain campaign to task for faux outrage. This is making the McCain campaign look like whiny girls.

You do realize that BUSH WON?

McCain only has to duplicate that.

Obama's the one who HAS TO change the map.

Mecca
09-10-2008, 07:53 PM
LMAO... Democrats think Obama is blowing it...

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13357.html

Can you post anything without the stupid laughing smiley? It makes me picture you as a drooling retard, oh wait...

dirk digler
09-10-2008, 07:53 PM
irrelevant. Obama was killing McCain among independent women, which is exactly what he had to do.

For the last several elections, men have basically been solidly Republican, and the unaffiliated women picked the winner. If the men ever drew 50/50, the GOP would be toast.

All the other forces, groups, and blocks cancel each other out. When the independent women go Democrat, the Dems win. The GOP only needs to be competitive with that group to have a close race.

Good analysis but you are forgetting a couple of things and that is the minority and especially the Hispanic vote which are heavily and I mean heavily tilting the Dems way. Bush won the Hispanic vote in 04 IIRC.

Also because of the Palin pick Florida is back in play because Jewish voters don't like her

alnorth
09-10-2008, 07:55 PM
He's gonna tell you you're wrong, here it comes.

Dude, what's your problem? (YOU were obviously wrong btw)

I'm not trying to be antagonistic here, this is a cold simple matter of numbers and political calculus. There's really not much room for opinions in the historical results and the necessities of this race.

dirk digler
09-10-2008, 07:56 PM
You do realize that BUSH WON?

McCain only has to duplicate that.

Obama's the one who HAS TO change the map.


The map has already changed especially in places like Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and now Florida.

'Hamas' Jenkins
09-10-2008, 07:58 PM
irrelevant. Obama was killing McCain among independent women, which is exactly what he had to do.

For the last several elections, men have basically been solidly Republican, and the unaffiliated women picked the winner. If the men ever drew 50/50, the GOP would be toast.

All the other forces, groups, and blocks cancel each other out. When the independent women go Democrat, the Dems win. The GOP only needs to be competitive with that group to have a close race.

That's an oversimplification. There is a huge dynamic between men and women based upon marital status. The gender gap actually negates either bloc writ large, FWIW. However, unmarried women vote disproportionately democratic, just like married men vote disproportionately for R's. Married women trend Repubican, and single men are more likely than their married counterparts to vote Democratic.

dirk digler
09-10-2008, 08:01 PM
I found this interesting from Dick Morris. I think Obama goes back to the Hispanic vote that Gore got which could and probably will swing the election to Obama

The biggest reason for Bush's victory was that he finally cracked the Democratic stranglehold on the Hispanic vote.

While Gore won 65 percent of the Latino community, holding Bush to a mere 35 percent, Kerry only carried the Hispanic vote by 55-45, paving the way for the Bush victory.

Since Hispanics cast 12 percent of the vote in 2004, their 10-point movement to the GOP gave the president an additional 1.2 percent of the national vote.

Take a similar amount away from Kerry, and the Latinos gave Bush a 2.4 percent edge in the general election balloting.

Since Bush beat Kerry by only 3.1 percent, how important was the Hispanic vote? Vital and crucial. There are two reasons for Bush’s success among Hispanics. The most important seems to be his emphasis on social values issues, particularly his opposition to gay marriage.

Calcountry
09-10-2008, 08:02 PM
It must be all those uppity negroes that already vote 90% democratic. My bad.No, just those "typical white women", Barack Hussein.

Calcountry
09-10-2008, 08:03 PM
I found this interesting from Dick Morris. I think Obama goes back to the Hispanic vote that Gore got which could and probably will swing the election to ObamaAmnesty for illegal immigrants, motor voter. You have got to love it if you are a dumbocrat.

Ultra Peanut
09-10-2008, 08:04 PM
Amnesty for illegal immigrants, motor voter. You have got to love it if you are a dumbocrat.Tubgirl in the flesh.

Calcountry
09-10-2008, 08:04 PM
Good analysis but you are forgetting a couple of things and that is the minority and especially the Hispanic vote which are heavily and I mean heavily tilting the Dems way. Bush won the Hispanic vote in 04 IIRC.

Also because of the Palin pick Florida is back in play because Jewish voters don't like herIt is suicide for a Jew to vote for Hussein.

dirk digler
09-10-2008, 08:05 PM
Amnesty for illegal immigrants, motor voter. You have got to love it if you are a dumbocrat.

You need to go look at your candidate that voted for amnesty for illegal immigrants.

Ultra Peanut
09-10-2008, 08:06 PM
It is suicide for a Jew to vote for Hussein.Because?

alnorth
09-10-2008, 08:07 PM
Good analysis but you are forgetting a couple of things and that is the minority and especially the Hispanic vote which are heavily and I mean heavily tilting the Dems way. Bush won the Hispanic vote in 04 IIRC.

Also because of the Palin pick Florida is back in play because Jewish voters don't like her

I didnt forget the minority and other various special groups, I carved them out. (Bush drew close to even, but I dont think he won latinos) The GOP's strong advantage with men GENERALLY counters the various smaller special interest groups, and some (but not all) of the female group's bigger numbers in population and voting reliability.

Its not a perfect simplified science, in a good year where the GOP is more competitive in all groups, maybe they only need to lose the independent women by a few points to win the election. In a bad year, maybe they need to tie or slightly win this group, but independent women are the swingiest large group out there. Its why we have to suffer through stories about "soccer moms", "security moms", and now "hockey moms" (gag).

Mecca
09-10-2008, 08:07 PM
Because?

Because obviously he is a Muslim.

alnorth
09-10-2008, 08:10 PM
The map has already changed especially in places like Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and now Florida.

yep, some states that have been close have fallen towards light blue, which forces McCain to go out and grab some new states. I live in Iowa and I can basically report that these people have fallen in love with Obama. I dont know why McCain is still wasting his money blanketing my TV with his ads. Its not a runaway here, but if Obama lost Iowa, it would probably be a wipeout in the electoral college.

Ultra Peanut
09-10-2008, 08:18 PM
You have no idea how smart your state looks to those of us on the outside, North.

dirk digler
09-10-2008, 08:21 PM
I didnt forget the minority and other various special groups, I carved them out. (Bush drew close to even, but I dont think he won latinos) The GOP's strong advantage with men GENERALLY counters the various smaller special interest groups, and some (but not all) of the female group's bigger numbers in population and voting reliability.

Its not a perfect simplified science, in a good year where the GOP is more competitive in all groups, maybe they only need to lose the independent women by a few points to win the election. In a bad year, maybe they need to tie or slightly win this group, but independent women are the swingiest large group out there. Its why we have to suffer through stories about "soccer moms", "security moms", and now "hockey moms" (gag).

Very good analysis alnorth. I tend to agree with you the one thing I would caution everyone on though is IMHO the electorate is totally different than in years past. That is one of the reasons why I don't trust the polls because Obama is going to turnout millions of new voters that aren't being accounted for