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HonestChieffan
09-12-2008, 07:10 AM
This could get interesting....http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Battle-Congress-Suddenly-Looks-Competitive.aspx

September 12, 2008
Battle for Congress Suddenly Looks CompetitiveDemocrats’ double-digit lead on the “generic ballot” slips to 3 pointsUSA Congress Democrats Election 2008 Government and Politics Republicans Americas Northern America by Lydia Saad


PRINCETON, NJ -- A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.



As is true for the current structure of voting preferences for president, Democratic voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Democratic candidate in their congressional districts (92%), Republican voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Republican candidate (94%), and independents are closely split, with 44% backing the Democrat and 40% the Republican.

The new results come from a Sept. 5-7 survey conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention and mirror the resulting enhanced position of the Republican Party seen in several other indicators. These range from John McCain's improved standing against Barack Obama in the presidential race to improved favorability ratings of the Republicans, to Republican gains in party identification. The sustainability of all of these findings is an open question that polling will answer over the next few weeks.

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup's "likely voter" model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.



If these numbers are sustained through Election Day -- a big if -- Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

As Gallup's long-term "generic ballot" trend shows, the Democrats held a sizable lead on this measure from the time they won back control of Congress in the fall of 2006 through last month. If the current closer positioning of the parties holds, the structure of congressional preferences will be similar to most of the period from 1994 through 2005, when Republicans won and maintained control of Congress.



Congressional Approval Also Troubling for Democrats

With only 18% of Americans in August saying they approve of the job Congress is doing, similar to the average 20% approval rating for Congress all year, the Democrats in Congress have additional cause for concern. This scant level of approval could signal that voters are in the mood for change, disproportionately hurting Democratic incumbents.

The last time the yearly average for approval of Congress approached this low a level was in 2006, when the Republicans lost majority control of Congress after 12 years in power. The previous occasion was in 1994, when the Republicans wrested control from the Democrats. In both of these midterm election years, the average congressional approval score was 25%. However, with an 18% approval rating for Congress in 1992, the Democrats succeeded in holding their majority in Congress. That was a presidential year in which the Democratic candidate, Bill Clinton, won.



The issues raised by today's low approval ratings of Congress are reinforced by recent Gallup Poll findings that relatively few voters generally believe "most members" of Congress deserve re-election. That figure was only 36% in July, much lower than the 51% or better reading found in recent election years when the party of the sitting majority in Congress maintained power.

Bottom Line

The new USA Today/Gallup measurement of generic ballot preferences for Congress casts some doubt on the previously assumed inevitability of the Democrats' maintaining control of Congress.

Until now, the dark shadow cast by George W. Bush's widespread unpopularity has suppressed Republican Party identification nationwide, as well as voters' willingness to support the Republican candidate running for Congress in their district.

Now that the symbolic leadership of the party is shifting away from Bush and toward the suddenly popular Republican presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, things may be changing. This shrinks Bush's shadow over the Republicans, revealing more of the Democrats' own shadow stemming from high disapproval of Congress. The key question is how much of this is temporary because of the tremendous bounce in support for the Republicans on many dimensions coming right off of their convention. The degree to which the Republican bounce is sustained, rather than dissipates, in the weeks ahead will determine whether the 2008 race for Congress could in fact be highly competitive, rather than a Democratic sweep.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,022 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 5-7, 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 959 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results for likely voters are based on the subsample of 823 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2008 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The "likely voter" model assumes a turnout of 60% of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted to match this assumption, so the weighted sample size is 613.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

To provide feedback or suggestions about how to improve Gallup.com, please e-mail feedback@gallup.com.

Bill Parcells
09-12-2008, 07:11 AM
Keep up those attacks on Palin! Brilliant!


ROFL

Ultra Peanut
09-12-2008, 07:14 AM
Golly, Republicans getting a... a... boost, as they call it, from the Republican National Convention?

This is unheard of, and there's no way it will fade over time.

Bill Parcells
09-12-2008, 07:15 AM
Golly, Republicans getting a... a... boost, as they call it, from the Republican National Convention?

This is unheard of, and there's no way it will fade over time.

Well he made a huge blunder by picking Palen. that's all we heard from you and the other experts were that the Republicans were doomed. doomed I tell you! now it's ''just a bump''

ROFL

HonestChieffan
09-12-2008, 07:19 AM
Golly, Republicans getting a... a... boost, as they call it, from the Republican National Convention?

This is unheard of, and there's no way it will fade over time.

You believe this is convention bump related? Interesting.

Ultra Peanut
09-12-2008, 07:23 AM
Well he made a huge blunder by picking Palen. that's all we heard from you and the other experts were that the Republicans were doomed. doomed I tell you! now it's ''just a bump''

ROFLI called the choice a cheap pop. I don't know what your interpretation of that phrase was, but whatevs.

Mecca
09-12-2008, 07:27 AM
Well he made a huge blunder by picking Palen. that's all we heard from you and the other experts were that the Republicans were doomed. doomed I tell you! now it's ''just a bump''

ROFL

They won't be able to keep her away from answering questions forever.....she's already coming off as a moron that doesn't have the slightest clue about anything other than being religious to a nutjob degree.

memyselfI
09-12-2008, 07:28 AM
You believe this is convention bump related? Interesting.

No, it's a pregnancy bump. Palin is pregnant with Bristol Palin's 23rd child.

Mecca
09-12-2008, 07:28 AM
No, it's a pregnancy bump. Palin is pregnant with Bristol Palin's 23rd child.

I wish she was pregnant with something that would cut your hands off so I'd never have to read your drivel again.

Bill Parcells
09-12-2008, 07:29 AM
They won't be able to keep her away from answering questions forever.....she's already coming off as a moron that doesn't have the slightest clue about anything other than being religious to a nutjob degree.

So what's your NFL draft preview on Obama? I haven't heard that yet ya know. what does he sound like?

I'm all ears

HonestChieffan
09-12-2008, 07:31 AM
They won't be able to keep her away from answering questions forever.....she's already coming off as a moron that doesn't have the slightest clue about anything other than being religious to a nutjob degree.

Did you feel she did poorly in the Gibson intervew so far? I was certainly not getting that at all from it.

Mecca
09-12-2008, 07:32 AM
Did you feel she did poorly in the Gibson intervew so far? I was certainly not getting that at all from it.

If you think coming off like you have no idea what you're talking about is a good thing, then hey I'm sure you enjoyed it.

tiptap
09-12-2008, 08:42 AM
Of all the possibilities, this is the most far fetched. Congress will be Democratic come November. And there will be gains in both houses. You want to taut that the it will be minimal gain because of the Republican convention, that is one thing but to think the chambers will change majorities is simply a another ploy to depress turnout. I wonder if it will really work?

RINGLEADER
09-12-2008, 10:54 AM
If you think coming off like you have no idea what you're talking about is a good thing, then hey I'm sure you enjoyed it.

She wasn't SPECTACULAR in the interview, but she also didn't seem completely lost. Thanks to the Dems the bar was set so low that I think you'll find that she cleared it in the minds of most Americans.

If the GOP were smart they'd roll out a 5-point plan for all their congressional candidates that mirrors McCain's change program. Contract with America Part 2.

RINGLEADER
09-12-2008, 10:56 AM
Of all the possibilities, this is the most far fetched. Congress will be Democratic come November. And there will be gains in both houses. You want to taut that the it will be minimal gain because of the Republican convention, that is one thing but to think the chambers will change majorities is simply a another ploy to depress turnout. I wonder if it will really work?

You're likely right -- I wouldn't disagree -- but if things continue this way there's no way they get to the magic filibuster-proof 60 in the senate which many were predicting only a few weeks ago.

The other by-product of shifts like this is that it will depress money-raising for Obama who is already behind his goals just to keep pace with McCain and the RNC.

'Hamas' Jenkins
09-12-2008, 10:56 AM
You do realize that conservative estimates put the Dems at a 50 seat majority in the house and 56-7 Senate seats, right?

Ultra Peanut
09-12-2008, 11:32 AM
You do realize that conservative estimates put the Dems at a 50 seat majority in the house and 56-7 Senate seats, right?But they MAY NOT get sixty seats in the Senate! We call that OWNED!

http://i33.tinypic.com/9ux1tz.gif

alnorth
09-12-2008, 11:48 AM
You do realize that conservative estimates put the Dems at a 50 seat majority in the house and 56-7 Senate seats, right?

Those "conservative" estimates presume a large double-digit lead in the generic ballot. If gallup's newest polls hold the next 8 weeks, you face the real possibility of losing the house.

'Hamas' Jenkins
09-12-2008, 11:51 AM
Those "conservative" estimates presume a large double-digit lead in the generic ballot. If gallup's newest polls hold the next 8 weeks, you face the real possibility of losing the house.

I'm logging this one for potential sig-worthiness.

alnorth
09-12-2008, 11:52 AM
You're likely right -- I wouldn't disagree -- but if things continue this way there's no way they get to the magic filibuster-proof 60 in the senate which many were predicting only a few weeks ago.

I can understand wanting to lower expectations so that they can be exceeded on election day, but your laying the sandbagging on a tad thick. This attitude would have been accurate 3 weeks ago, but the generic ballots have miraculously shifted the first time this entire year, and the senate races are tightening up.

Our best case scenario USED to be "only" losing 2 senate seats and maybe 10 house seats, which obviously implies a likely 2002-style annihilation.

That best case scenario is now the "likely" scenario. Our optimistic best case scenario is a net gain of zero in the senate and actually winning the house.

alnorth
09-12-2008, 11:54 AM
I'm logging this one for potential sig-worthiness.

Go for it, but you have to admit the truth of those words. If gallup's polls are accurate, then your prediction is utterly laughable. Thats obviously a pretty big if, but I'm not predicting anything here.

Calcountry
09-12-2008, 11:58 AM
Keep up those attacks on Palin! Brilliant!


ROFLI don't know about coattails, but a lot of Republicans are feeling the political effect of her tale.

Calcountry
09-12-2008, 11:59 AM
You do realize that conservative estimates put the Dems at a 50 seat majority in the house and 56-7 Senate seats, right?
You're in a dive losing altitude.....

***SPRAYER
09-12-2008, 12:17 PM
Similar commentary:
Pelosi's Gang
Feels the Pressure
September 12, 2008
Something happened on the way to September.

It was in July that Chris Van Hollen, head of the Democrats' House campaign operation, predicted this year would prove "another big-wave election" for his party -- a repeat of 2006 when Democrats gained 31 seats. Barack Obama's "50-state strategy" was supposed to secure both the White House and blowout gains in Congress. At the recent Democratic convention, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer bragged his party had 75 pick-up opportunities.


M.E. Cohen
Or maybe not. Slowly, without much notice, the political landscape has changed. House Republicans are getting traction on issues like energy and reform, and a boost from a newly energized McCain-Palin ticket. An even bigger problem for Democrats is that Nancy Pelosi's liberal governing has put her own vaunted freshmen at risk in their conservative districts.

Some Republicans now cautiously predict they might keep losses to the single digits. Some Democrats morosely agree.

One big shift is in the way voters are looking at Republicans. The GOP brand may still stink, but has lost at least some of its odor. Republicans have closed the gap in polls that ask whether voters are more likely to go for a generic Republican or a generic Democrat -- and in some cases reversed it. New polls also show a real majority of voters in today's GOP-held districts would prefer to keep a Republican in office.

That last number is especially key for the two-dozen open seats Republicans are actively defending. The conventional wisdom was that mass GOP retirements would guarantee a Republican rout, and it's true the party will lose some long-held districts that are now trending left. Then again, this passing of the old guard has held an upside. It's allowed the party to field fresh faces at a time of anti-incumbent mania.

These younger candidates have seized on the energy issue, and embraced John McCain's promise to reform the GOP on earmarks, spending and entitlements. Free of the party's baggage, they've rejuvenated conservative voters and intrigued independents.

Nine-term California Republican John Doolittle was headed to defeat, thanks to a corruption investigation. He instead retired, and today's Republican candidate is state Sen. Tom McClintock, an ardent fiscal conservative. Should he and like-minded newbies win, they will bolster the party's reform wing.

Democrats still hold the cards, but face a possible reckoning. The Democratic leadership got smart in 2006, running conservative Democrats who picked off unpopular Republicans in conservative districts. Yet that same leadership has proceeded to govern in a way that has made many of those freshmen vulnerable in their first re-election. Of the 20 most competitive Democratic seats, 16 are held by newcomers.

If you want to know why Mrs. Pelosi is so eager to now talk energy, this is it. Wisconsin's Steve Kagen, who in 2006 won a district that went 55% for George W. Bush, is getting hammered by his GOP opponent, John Gard, for his party's refusal to pass drilling legislation. Republican Lynn Jenkins is accusing Kansas freshman Nancy Boyda of casting the deciding vote for Congress to go on August recess instead of dealing with high gas prices. Mrs. Pelosi has meanwhile forbade her party from signing a petition to bring GOP drilling legislation to the floor; Republicans are making her power over freshmen Democrats an issue.

The newcomers are also getting knocked for their party's failed promise to reform spending and earmarks. Pennsylvania's Chris Carney (whose district went 60% for Mr. Bush) is up against GOP reformer Chris Hackett. Mr. Hackett has taken a no-earmark pledge, and turned Mr. Carney's pork into a central theme. He's been getting an assist from media attention on the neighboring district of 12-term Democrat Paul Kanjorski, who may lose his seat over an earmark scandal.

What's really hurting freshmen are votes on which their leadership demanded unity. Some are getting hit for a Democratic vote to eliminate secret ballots in union elections, which has tarred candidates with the stench of a special-interest labor agenda. Some are getting hit for Mrs. Pelosi's resolution condemning the Iraq surge. Some, in particular Democrats who belong to the Blue Dog coalition, are getting hit for their votes to raise taxes or increase spending.

As for Mr. Obama's 50-state game, many freshman Dems are too worried about being tarred with his liberal stances to even risk being seen with him. Republicans are also encouraged by the new enthusiasm Sarah Palin has injected into the McCain campaign. They are hoping for better turnout, and for voters to follow historic patterns by voting largely down the ticket line.

Republicans continue to fret that their better fortunes are tied to gas prices, and that as they fall, they'll "lose" the energy issue, and their appeal to voters. Possibly. But if there's a lesson in all this -- for both parties -- it's that voters are responding to promises to break with the Washington same-old, same-old. That's a message that will resonate no matter the price of oil.

Write to kim@wsj.com




http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122117869912626029.html?mod=todays_columnists

alnorth
09-12-2008, 12:21 PM
What (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_governor_elections/washington/election_2008_washington_governor) the hell is this (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/washington/election_2008_washington_presidential_election)?

Rasmussen is saying that the GOP candidate for WA governor has abruptly surged ahead 6 points, and McCain is down 2. Since when was Washington competitive for Republicans?

I'm not going to believe in this until its confirmed by other polls, but if Obama lost Washington state it would be a disaster.

Ultra Peanut
09-12-2008, 12:38 PM
If gallup's newest polls hold the next 8 weekslol