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View Full Version : Science Clean Energy 2030 - Google's Proposal for reducing U.S. dependence on fossil fuels


jAZ
10-02-2008, 10:16 AM
There is a lot of supporting analysis at the link below. I thought it was really interesting that Google has committed so much to this issue. It's largely motivated by self-interest. Data centers have the largest carbon footprint of any business sector.

http://knol.google.com/k/-/-/15x31uzlqeo5n/1#

Google's goal in presenting the Clean Energy 2030 proposal is to stimulate debate and we invite you to take a look and comment - or offer an alternative approach if you disagree.

Summary

Right now we have a real opportunity to transform our economy from one running on fossil fuels to one largely based on clean energy. Technologies and know-how to accomplish this are either available today or are under development. We can build whole new industries and create millions of new jobs. We can cut energy costs, both at the gas pump and at home. We can improve our national security. And we can put a big dent in climate change. With strong leadership we could be moving forward on an aggressive but realistic time-line and an approach that offsets costs with real economic gains.

The energy team at Google has been analyzing how we could greatly reduce fossil fuel use by 2030. Our proposal - "Clean Energy 2030" - provides a potential path to weaning the U.S. off of coal and oil for electricity generation by 2030 (with some remaining use of natural gas as well as nuclear), and cutting oil use for cars by 38%. Al Gore has issued a challenge (http://www.wecansolveit.org/) that is even more ambitious - getting us to carbon-free electricity even sooner - and we hope the American public pushes our leaders to embrace it. T. Boone Pickens has weighed in with an interesting plan (http://www.pickensplan.com/act/?c=Google&a=Pickens-Keywords&k=pickens+plan) of his own to massively deploy wind energy, among other things. Other plans have also been developed in recent years that merit attention.



Our goal in presenting this first iteration of the Clean Energy 2030 proposal is to stimulate debate and we invite you to take a look and comment - or offer an alternative approach if you disagree. With a new Administration and Congress - and multiple energy-related imperatives - this is an opportune, perhaps unprecedented, moment to move from plan to action.



We announced this proposal (http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2008/10/clean-energy-2030.html) on October 1, 2008. Google CEO Eric Schmidt's energy speech at the Commonwealth Club (http://tickets.commonwealthclub.org/auto_choose_ga.asp?area=35) on October 1 will be available shortly.




Summary: Reductions in Energy Use and Emissions


Our proposal will allow us to reduce from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) current baseline (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/) for energy use:

<LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left">Fossil fuel-based electricity generation by 88% <LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left">Vehicle oil consumption by 38% <LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left">Dependence on imported oil (currently 10 million barrels per day) by 33% <LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left">Electricity-sector CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions by 95% <LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left">Personal vehicle sector CO<SUB style="FONT-SIZE: 0.7em">2 </SUB>emissions by 38%
US CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions overall by 48% (40% from today's CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission level)We can achieve these results in 2030 by:

<LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left">Deploying aggressive end-use electrical energy efficiency measures to reduce demand 33%.
Baseline EIA demand is projected to increase 25% by 2030. In addition, the increase in plug-in vehicles (see below) increases electricity demand another 8%. Thus, our efficiency reductions keep demand flat at the 2008 level.<LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left">Replacing all coal and oil electricity generation, and about half of that from natural gas, with renewable electricity: <LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left">380 gigawatts (GW) wind: 300 GW onshore + 80 GW offshore <LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left">250 GW solar: 170 GW photovoltaic (PV) + 80 GW concentrating solar power (CSP)
80 GW geothermal: 15 GW conventional + 65 GW enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)<LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left">Increasing plug-in vehicles (hybrids & pure electrics) to 90% of new car sales in 2030, reaching 42% of the total US fleet that year <LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left">Increasing new conventional vehicle fuel efficiency from 31 to 45 mpg in 2030
Accelerating the turnover of the vehicle fleet from 19 to 13 years (resulting in 25 million new vehicle sales per year in 2030, a 31% increase over the baseline)

Summary: Financial Bottom Line

The financial bottom line: Although the cost of the Clean Energy 2030 proposal is significant (about $4.4 trillion in undiscounted 2008 dollars), savings are even greater ($5.4 trillion), returning a net savings of $1.0 trillion over the 22-year life of the plan.


Summary: Actions Required

A number of actions will be required to realize the Clean Energy 2030 proposal:
<LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px">Renewable electricity: <LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px">A long-term national commitment to renewable electricity (e.g. national renewable portfolio standard, carbon price, long-term tax credits and incentives, etc.) <LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px">Adequate transmission capacity (to support about 450 GW targeting mostly Great Plains and coasts for wind, and desert southwest for concentrating solar power) <LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px">Adequate grid resources to manage large-scale intermittent generation
Public and private renewable energy R&D and investment to achieve cost parity with fossil generation in next several years <LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px">Energy efficiency
Long-term commitment to energy efficiency by the federal government and states (e.g, national efficiency standard, aggressive appliance standards and building codes, "decoupling" of utility profits from sales, incentives for energy efficiency investments)
Deployment of a "smart" electricity grid that empowers consumers and businesses to manage their electricity use more effectively <LI style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px">Personal vehicles:
Public policies supporting the accelerated deployment of fuel-efficient vehicles, e.g. higher fuel efficiency standards for conventional vehicles, financial incentives to remove older vehicles from the fleet and encourage efficient (especially plug-in) vehicle purchases, special electricity rates for "smart charging", and greater R&D
Investment in infrastructure necessary to support massive deployment of plug-ins including charging stations and development of new power management hardware and softwareAll of the above will require a sufficient and well-trained work force and manufacturing capacity to meet projected growth.

boogblaster
10-02-2008, 10:22 AM
The future is always scary .. hopefully it comes with low-cost to us all ...

SNR
10-02-2008, 10:31 AM
"Carbon footprint" = gay

jidar
10-02-2008, 10:45 AM
The transition to non-fossil fuel based energy is a market opportunity that will stimulate our economy over the next few decades. Boone Pickens is aware of this so he's getting in on the ground floor with his wind plan. Look for other prominent investors to start going into these opportunities in the future.
I suspect that Warren Buffets recent stake in GE is with an eye towards this type of investment.

vailpass
10-02-2008, 10:48 AM
Get away from my Denali!!

jAZ
10-02-2008, 10:55 AM
Get away from my Denali!!

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/_PPzDwQDrtc&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x006699&color2=0x54abd6"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/_PPzDwQDrtc&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x006699&color2=0x54abd6" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

Donger
10-02-2008, 11:06 AM
Are they going to convert their 767 to gerbil-power?

Rain Man
10-02-2008, 11:27 AM
The answer is nuclear power plants in very high (or even lunar) orbit, with the parts ferried up via space elevators. You read it here first.

vailpass
10-02-2008, 11:33 AM
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:) Wow, I've never seen that, uh, thing before.
Mine looks just a little different.

KCrockaholic
10-02-2008, 11:55 AM
aint gonna happen...were all gonna die in 2012. december 21st 2012 to be exact.

Pitt Gorilla
10-02-2008, 12:01 PM
The transition to non-fossil fuel based energy is a market opportunity that will stimulate our economy over the next few decades. Boone Pickens is aware of this so he's getting in on the ground floor with his wind plan. Look for other prominent investors to start going into these opportunities in the future.
I suspect that Warren Buffets recent stake in GE is with an eye towards this type of investment.Iowa is putting up new wind generators all the time. I think there is a plant in Newton that makes the things.

Calcountry
10-02-2008, 12:32 PM
The answer is nuclear power plants in very high (or even lunar) orbit, with the parts ferried up via space elevators. You read it here first.Well, we could put a bazillion solar panels in orbit. This would have the duel effect of reducing global warming by shading the planet.

chasedude
10-02-2008, 12:33 PM
Iowa is putting up new wind generators all the time. I think there is a plant in Newton that makes the things.

I see them in their convoys all the time on 36hwy here in KS. HUGE trucks each carrying a blade a piece, it's quite a site to see.

Calcountry
10-02-2008, 12:33 PM
aint gonna happen...were all gonna die in 2012. december 21st 2012 to be exact.After 4 years into an Obama admin, it aint gonna matter what is going on that day. Hope I am wrong.

Donger
10-02-2008, 12:35 PM
I can't stand wind turbines. The noise drives me nuts.

Redrum_69
10-02-2008, 12:36 PM
LOL 2030

everyone posting here will be 6 feet under

in fact, the end of the world will be on 12/21/12

google it

Redrum_69
10-02-2008, 12:37 PM
http://www.december212012.com/

Pitt Gorilla
10-02-2008, 12:53 PM
I can't stand wind turbines. The noise drives me nuts.How close do you have to be to hear them? I live somewhat close to some and drive by others quite often and have never heard one.

Donger
10-02-2008, 12:55 PM
How close do you have to be to hear them? I live somewhat close to some and drive by others quite often and have never heard one.

Depends on how fast they are spinning. I've been within 100 feet of a few that were really moving, and it was unbearable for me. I have issues with certain noise, however.

Mr. Laz
10-02-2008, 12:55 PM
clean energy is teh debbil