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Bootlegged
10-16-2008, 03:58 PM
Obama may win, but a little early for the victory lap.

Calcountry
10-16-2008, 04:02 PM
B'wack-a-bama.

It's this new game down at Chuck e cheeses. I hear it is replacing the wack a mole game.

Bootlegged
10-16-2008, 04:03 PM
GALLUP's 'traditional' likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll's margin of error... Developing

Bowser
10-16-2008, 04:05 PM
Print 'em.

triple
10-16-2008, 04:07 PM
but, but, CBS told me it was a 15 point lead

dirk digler
10-16-2008, 04:07 PM
Maybe next time you should use this thread where it was chosen to go

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?p=5122374#post5122374

Also because you are not very smart I will help you out

Gallup has 3 polls it is using near the end

Regular
Obama 49
McCain 43

Likely Voted Expanded
Obama 51
McCain 45

and the traditional one you posted which is based off of 2004 models which are obviously extremely out of date

HolmeZz
10-16-2008, 04:08 PM
The traditional is meaningless. You have to look at the expanded because it shows the gains the Democrats have made in registration since last election.

The polls will balloon back up in the next day or so, if the past debates are any indication.

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-16-2008, 04:09 PM
Look, everyone, a retard!!

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3254/2945674302_8fa9d41d05_o.png

Woodrow Call
10-16-2008, 04:09 PM
HE GAINED A POINT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bootlegged
10-16-2008, 04:12 PM
Maybe next time you should use this thread where it was chosen to go

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?p=5122374#post5122374

Also because you are not very smart I will help you out

Gallup has 3 polls it is using near the end

Regular
Obama 49
McCain 43

Likely Voted Expanded
Obama 51
McCain 45

and the traditional one you posted which is based off of 2004 models which are obviously extremely out of date

Didn't you once ask me for a job? Seriously?

Bootlegged
10-16-2008, 04:12 PM
Scream and cry - first ACORN and now this. Things are looky scary for Barry.

SBK
10-16-2008, 04:13 PM
The election is already over. There's no reason to even take this poll.

triple
10-16-2008, 04:14 PM
the gains the Democrats have made in registration since last election.

http://www.emqb.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/dallas-cowboys-training-camp_nc.jpg

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-16-2008, 04:14 PM
Scream and cry - first ACORN and now this. Things are looky scary for Barry.

I'd imagine a lot of things might seem scary if you don't know how to read.

dirk digler
10-16-2008, 04:16 PM
Didn't you once ask me for a job? Seriously?

Ummm... not that I remember. I have had the same job for the last 8 years

dirk digler
10-16-2008, 04:17 PM
The election is already over. There's no reason to even take this poll.

I wouldn't say that. I think it will get closer near the end

Bowser
10-16-2008, 04:18 PM
Scream and cry - first ACORN and now this. Things are looky scary for Barry.

...

Baby Lee
10-16-2008, 04:18 PM
Ummm... not that I remember. I have had the same job for the last 8 years

Eh, he probably got you mixed up with omtashkay . . . I keed!!!

banyon
10-16-2008, 04:19 PM
Scream and cry - first ACORN and now this. Things are looky scary for Barry.

Are we already in the denial stage? I thought we'd have to go through shock first. There's hope yet that you guys may be able to mentally recover after this election.

I'd recommend expanding our mental health budgets, but you guys would probably just see that as more socialism which might just make your paranoia worse.

triple
10-16-2008, 04:20 PM
I wouldn't say that. I think it will get closer near the end

i think he's making a joke about the media drumbeat that it's already over, BHO planning his lavish celebration party, etc

SBK
10-16-2008, 04:20 PM
I wouldn't say that. I think it will get closer near the end

There's been plenty around here, and in the media to have already declared this race over.

I have no reason not to believe them. I even read today an Irish bookie is already paying out for people who bet Obama would win.

This race has been over for weeks, no reason to even vote.

Chief Henry
10-16-2008, 04:23 PM
I'd imagine a lot of things might seem scary if you don't know how to read.

Like the acorn nuts that are out carrying barry's water. It appears most if not all of them don't know how to read.

Donger
10-16-2008, 04:24 PM
I hate being right all the time.

dirk digler
10-16-2008, 04:25 PM
There's been plenty around here, and in the media to have already declared this race over.

I have no reason not to believe them. I even read today an Irish bookie is already paying out for people who bet Obama would win.

This race has been over for weeks, no reason to even vote.

I think it is getting closer to being over but it is not yet. If the state polls stay where they are going into the last week then I think Obama wins in a landslide.

My only concern is that people that support Obama don't take anything for granted and make sure they go vote that way we leave nothing to chance.

dirk digler
10-16-2008, 04:26 PM
I hate being right all the time.

I never knew you to be right once....:D

Baby Lee
10-16-2008, 04:31 PM
Are we already in the denial stage? I thought we'd have to go through shock first. There's hope yet that you guys may be able to mentally recover after this election.

I'd recommend expanding our mental health budgets, but you guys would probably just see that as more socialism which might just make your paranoia worse.

WTF? There are still people who will well up and run off for a private cry if you mention the concept 'Florida Voter' to them 8 years later.

Myself, I'm pretty close to the 'done giving a shit for a good while' stage.

If the entire nation is gonna swallow, from Obama no less, that "free wheelin' deregulated capitalism as designed by Mr. John McCain" is the cause of the current economic woes without so much as a gulp or a 'what now?' it's pretty much a waste of brain cells to even care what the american populace thinks.

Get me mine, follow my bliss, stock up of reruns of This Old House.

Dave Lane
10-16-2008, 04:32 PM
I never knew you to be right once....:D

Theres always a first time!

Basileus777
10-16-2008, 05:12 PM
The Gallup Daily has Obama up 49-43...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx

BigRedChief
10-16-2008, 05:26 PM
The Gallup Daily has Obama up 49-43...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx
October 16, 2008

US: Obama 51, McCain 45 (Gallup-10/13-15) (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_obama_51_mccain_45_gallup10.php)

By Eric Dienstfrey (http://www.pollster.com/)
Gallup Poll
10/13-15/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
National
Registered Voters (2,786 RV, 2%):
Obama 49, McCain 43
Likely Voters-Expanded (2,312 LV, 2%):
Obama 51, McCain 45
Likely Voters-Traditional (2,143 LV, 2%):
Obama 49, McCain 47 (http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx)

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-16-2008, 05:43 PM
WTF? There are still people who will well up and run off for a private cry if you mention the concept 'Florida Voter' to them 8 years later.

Myself, I'm pretty close to the 'done giving a shit for a good while' stage.

If the entire nation is gonna swallow, from Obama no less, that "free wheelin' deregulated capitalism as designed by Mr. John McCain" is the cause of the current economic woes without so much as a gulp or a 'what now?' it's pretty much a waste of brain cells to even care what the american populace thinks.

Get me mine, follow my bliss, stock up of reruns of This Old House.

Another liberal elitist, ladies and gents.

FWIW, I especially love the "If you vote for Obama, no one should care what the American public thinks" line.

Calcountry
10-16-2008, 06:20 PM
Does anyone smell blood in the water?

Taco John
10-16-2008, 06:22 PM
Does anyone smell blood in the water?



Yeah. Gallup's.

memyselfI
10-16-2008, 08:07 PM
This news coupled with the Ohio voter registration going to the USSC must have the NObama campaign wondering WTF is going on. Hasn't ANYONE read the memo that they've won this thing?

They've been soooo damn smug and figuring they've got this thing locked up. It would be comical and karmic justice to see them lose this at the end. It would be like the Super Bowl last year.

***SPRAYER
10-16-2008, 08:13 PM
The traditional is meaningless. You have to look at the expanded because it shows the gains the Democrats have made in registration since last election.

You mean the extra 100,000 registered voters in Ohio, who don't actually live in Ohio?

oldandslow
10-16-2008, 08:14 PM
This news coupled with the Ohio voter registration going to the USSC must have the NObama campaign wondering WTF is going on. Hasn't ANYONE read the memo that they've won this thing?

They've been soooo damn smug and figuring they've got this thing locked up. It would be comical and karmic justice to see them lose this at the end. It would be like the Super Bowl last year.

You have become unbalanced...seriously...this is one poll that is using 2004 weights. Which means placing many more repubs in the poll.

Use 2006 weights and the poll is at 7%.

Actually this poll is huge news for the Obama side. It really means they are leading even further than the LV model that gallup is using.

No one is getting cocky in the Obama campaign...even today he warned his supporters against it.

Having said that, he will win the election.

vailpass
10-16-2008, 08:16 PM
There are a lot of people that might want to hang themselves after this election.

memyselfI
10-16-2008, 08:42 PM
You have become unbalanced...seriously...this is one poll that is using 2004 weights. Which means placing many more repubs in the poll.

Use 2006 weights and the poll is at 7%.

Actually this poll is huge news for the Obama side. It really means they are leading even further than the LV model that gallup is using.

No one is getting cocky in the Obama campaign...even today he warned his supporters against it.

Having said that, he will win the election.

He might win, he might not.

His campaign is talking landslide, planning their victory party, trying to sow the mandate seeds.

I think that is rather presumptuous seeing that Reagan and others trailed before the election and won.

dirk digler
10-16-2008, 08:55 PM
This news coupled with the Ohio voter registration going to the USSC must have the NObama campaign wondering WTF is going on. Hasn't ANYONE read the memo that they've won this thing?

They've been soooo damn smug and figuring they've got this thing locked up. It would be comical and karmic justice to see them lose this at the end. It would be like the Super Bowl last year.

What you don't understand is all Obama has to do is hold onto the Kerry states which he will and win Virgina or North Carolina or Florida, or Ohio and it is over. He also can do it via a combination of Iowa-Colorado-Nevada or New Mexico.

Portlantis
10-16-2008, 09:03 PM
This is what fivethirtyeight.com had to say about said poll.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1016.html



Thursday, October 16, 2008

With seven different daily tracking polls to work with -- one of which releases three separate versions of its model each day -- there is a lot to choose from for those who might seek to cherry-pick results.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3218/2947462259_909c9b6bdf_o.png


Slow news day, Matt? If this is a two-point race right now, I'll eat Drudge's fedora. None of the dozen or so other polls that were in the field this week shows a race that close. Nor do either of the alternate versions of Gallup's model, including the so-called Likely Voters II model that I find most credible. (Drudge, of course, had no interest in featuring the Zogby poll, as he had for the past several of days on his site, but which today showed Obama gaining ground.)

Let me be clear: I don't blame Drudge for trying to drive the narrative. Unlike certain other folks, it's not as though he's made any claim to being objective. With real news -- which polls aren't -- he generally has excellent and entertaining instincts.

I do, however, blame those of who allow yourselves to have your day ruined when Drudge moonlights as some kind of polling analyst.

A fairer way to analyze tracking polls, in any event, is something like this: McCain gained ground in three of the seven trackers today (Gallup, Rasmussen, Battleground). He lost ground in one (Zogby). Three others (Research 2000, Hotline, IBD/TIPP) were unchanged.

That could indicate a slight tightening toward McCain, who also had gained ground on average in the tracking polls yesterday. It could also indicate statistical noise. What it probably does not indicate is any dramatic shift in the momentum of the race.

Our model, indeed -- crunching all of this data along with the state polling -- does think Obama's momentum had stalled out about a bit, and pegs his national lead at closer to 7 points rather than the 8-point advantage it had given him a couple of days ago. Why? I don't know. Conventions are not the only events that produce bounces. Debates can too; if a candidate picks up, say, 3 points as the result of winning a debate, he might keep 2 of those points but give one of them back after a handful of days. To the extent that Obama has lost any steam, I sense that it is more something like that than anything constructive the McCain campaign has done.

And of course, there was another debate last night, which most observers concluded that Obama won, and which may give him another momentum boost. That debate will begin to be reflected in tomorrow's numbers and will be fully rolled in by Sunday or Monday.

Looking very quickly at the state numbers:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3043/2947462065_2d31ba2cdd_o.png

Anything interesting here? Not really; even the notoriously erratic Zogby Interactive polls seem fairly well behaved. Rasmussen has Ohio moving back into a tie after Obama had led by 2 there earlier in the week. On the other hand, that 2-point lead represented the first time that Obama had led any Rasmussen poll of Ohio, so relative to their envisioning of the state, this remains a decent result for him.

vailpass
10-16-2008, 09:06 PM
What you don't understand is all Obama has to do is hold onto the Kerry states which he will and win Virgina or North Carolina or Florida, or Ohio and it is over. He also can do it via a combination of Iowa-Colorado-Nevada or New Mexico.

Sounds a lot like what people were saying when Kerry ran. And Gore.
I'm just sayin....

memyselfI
10-16-2008, 09:08 PM
What you don't understand is all Obama has to do is hold onto the Kerry states which he will and win Virgina or North Carolina or Florida, or Ohio and it is over. He also can do it via a combination of Iowa-Colorado-Nevada or New Mexico.


Yeah, Al Gore won too. Just sayin...

dirk digler
10-16-2008, 09:15 PM
Sounds a lot like what people were saying when Kerry ran. And Gore.
I'm just sayin....

Kerry was never ahead in any national polls going into election day he was always behind by the margin of error and guess what he lost by? 3% within the margin of error.

What was screwed up was the polls that were taken while people were walking out of the voting booth

dirk digler
10-16-2008, 09:16 PM
Yeah, Al Gore won too. Just sayin...

I think the race will be close but in the end Obama is going to win

RJ
10-16-2008, 09:21 PM
There are a lot of people that might want to hang themselves after this election.


There's no time like the present, I always say.

Bootlegged
10-16-2008, 09:27 PM
The Gallup Daily has Obama up 49-43...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx

You may want to read the thread title a little more closely - slower perhaps.

It is currently on Drudge as well, if you'd like some reference.

vailpass
10-16-2008, 09:29 PM
There's no time like the present, I always say.

:)

dirk digler
10-16-2008, 09:34 PM
You may want to read the thread title a little more closely - slower perhaps.

It is currently on Drudge as well, if you'd like some reference.

Yeah because Drudge is such a great source. It is not like he cherry picks the news and the polls that fits his agenda.

Infidel Goat
10-16-2008, 10:09 PM
http://itc.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/celebration6_3.jpg

splatbass
10-16-2008, 10:23 PM
i think he's making a joke about the media drumbeat that it's already over, BHO planning his lavish celebration party, etc

I heard Obama just this morning telling his supporters not to be complacent and not to take anything for granted. He is not acting like the election is over. Why would you imply he is? Can you try to be honest, please?

Ultra Peanut
10-16-2008, 10:25 PM
Mmm, that cherry you picked was delicious!

Scream and cry - first ACORN and now this. Things are looky scary for Barry.Look at you. Look how retarded you are.

Ultra Peanut
10-16-2008, 10:26 PM
i think he's making a joke about the media drumbeat that it's already over, BHO planning his lavish celebration party, etcHere's the thing you don't understand: It is in the media's best interest to PRESENT THIS AS A CLOSE RACE. That's what they're actively trying to do. Your assertion that they WANT to say it's over is utterly fucking retarded.

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-16-2008, 10:39 PM
THEY'RE MEASURIN' THE DRAPES!!!

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/l657Tlrw454&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/l657Tlrw454&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

Mecca
10-16-2008, 11:48 PM
Here's the thing you don't understand: It is in the media's best interest to PRESENT THIS AS A CLOSE RACE. That's what they're actively trying to do. Your assertion that they WANT to say it's over is utterly fucking retarded.

Trying to argue logic isn't a very fun thing to do around here...it's like peoples brains don't even work in a general functioning fashion.

KCJohnny
10-17-2008, 02:46 AM
Trying to argue logic isn't a very fun thing to do around here...it's like my brain don't even work in a general functioning fashion.

FYP

Happy Birthday, dude.

KCJ
:arrow:

Bootlegged
10-17-2008, 06:27 AM
Yeah because Drudge is such a great source. It is not like he cherry picks the news and the polls that fits his agenda.

Umm...It's on Gallup's website. Drudge pulled it from their website. I know you don't like the results, but this whining/spinning/dismissing is just pathetic.

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/e2u1vywun0g1afqhuuxiuq.gif

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-17-2008, 06:41 AM
Umm...It's on Gallup's website. Drudge pulled it from their website. I know you don't like the results, but this whining/spinning/dismissing is just pathetic.

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/e2u1vywun0g1afqhuuxiuq.gif

And how many people have told you that the "traditional" voter model is horribly outmoded? Past voting behavior means nothing in elections with a historic number of new voters and changes in party affiliation.

Why is this so hard to understand?

Bootlegged
10-17-2008, 06:56 AM
And how many people have told you that the "traditional" voter model is horribly outmoded? Past voting behavior means nothing in elections with a historic number of new voters and changes in party affiliation.

Why is this so hard to understand?

It's information. Do with it what you wish. But by all means, whine more. Bitch/whine/mock/complain. It's all you have.

tiptap
10-17-2008, 06:58 AM
If you are following a particular poll and are noting the trends, that is the relative changes then the traditional model is still informative as to movement in voting behavior. But cherry picking polls or introducing polls without a beginning at least going back before the conventions is pretty useless except as propaganda. Of course people are having trouble understanding some decisions made in the McCain campaign in choosing to not compete in states and ignoring what others see as eroding numbers in what had been considered safe states. One may wonder if McCain models are not influenced by the same suppositions as the Gallup (last cycles break). They may see that their only chance to win is IF that is true and they therefore make decisions as if it is true to maximise their effect under that model. To accept the premises of a change in Democratic and Republican affiliation means there is no winning strategy.

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-17-2008, 07:06 AM
It's information. Do with it what you wish. But by all means, whine more. Bitch/whine/mock/complain. It's all you have.

I'm not the one who is so desperate he posted an outdated subset from one poll that still showed his candidate behind as proof that the race isn't over yet. The whiners are all the Republicans on this board who keep crying out "oh, they're both bad candidates", "all our options suck!", "I hate both of these guys."

Guess what? That's your view. People on the left are happy with their candidate. They aren't holding their noses and voting for him because he supposedly shares their empty ideology.

American Republican ideology is the ultimate non-sequitur, and that's your problem. Deal with it.

Bootlegged
10-17-2008, 07:13 AM
Man - Look at all the panic and bitching from the Obamatons. If the race was really over, I'd suspect that uneasy feeling that spurs on your "oh - that poll doesn't count" and "u r an idiot" posts wouldn't be there. The data is there. It's from Gallup. They must do it for a reason.

I'm amazed how many professional statisticians/pollsters/political scientists live on this Internet football message board.

McCain/Obama in a statistical TIE!!! PER GALLUP!!!

Bill Parcells
10-17-2008, 07:13 AM
Obama may win, but a little early for the victory lap.

That's racist

Friendo
10-17-2008, 07:21 AM
I'm not the one who is so desperate he posted an outdated subset from one poll that still showed his candidate behind as proof that the race isn't over yet. The whiners are all the Republicans on this board who keep crying out "oh, they're both bad candidates", "all our options suck!", "I hate both of these guys."

Guess what? That's your view. People on the left are happy with their candidate. They aren't holding their noses and voting for him because he supposedly shares their empty ideology.

American Republican ideology is the ultimate non-sequitur, and that's your problem. Deal with it.


yep

tiptap
10-17-2008, 07:30 AM
I know the media says the same thing. When candidates data if within the margin of error that that is a tie. But statistically that is a false statement. I expect better of planeteers. The correct thing to say that suggests an even contest is to say that the numbers lie within the margin of error. If you apply statistics to the numbers as a projection of their value in predicting accurately, then you only get statistical ties IF THE NUMBERS ARE EXACTLY THE SAME. Otherwise the person whose numbers are larger will be statistically more likely to be ahead under all sampling errors for a majority of situations. Greater than 50% and in the order of 70% for a difference of 2 and a margin of error of 5. I know this is technical but it is never too late to be rigorous.

VAChief
10-17-2008, 07:36 AM
Man - Look at all the panic and bitching from the Obamatons. If the race was really over, I'd suspect that uneasy feeling that spurs on your "oh - that poll doesn't count" and "u r an idiot" posts wouldn't be there. The data is there. It's from Gallup. They must do it for a reason.

I'm amazed how many professional statisticians/pollsters/political scientists live on this Internet football message board.

McCain/Obama in a statistical TIE!!! PER GALLUP!!!

You are right, I'm not in a position to dispute any of the data personally. I would say that I certainly feel better about Obama's data than McCain's data. Supporting that it appears that McCain realizes that as well which leads me to believe that he feels he is signficantly behind as well. He doesn't really believe Obama "palled around" with terrorists. He is conflicted because he knows this isn't right, but he sees that it has a positive effect on his base and there is that outside chance that could spread (at least in the campaign's view).

Just my take, however it really doesn't mean much till Nov. 5th. We will know for sure soon which pollsters were more accurate and reflective of the electorate.

dirk digler
10-17-2008, 07:56 AM
Man - Look at all the panic and bitching from the Obamatons. If the race was really over, I'd suspect that uneasy feeling that spurs on your "oh - that poll doesn't count" and "u r an idiot" posts wouldn't be there. The data is there. It's from Gallup. They must do it for a reason.

I'm amazed how many professional statisticians/pollsters/political scientists live on this Internet football message board.

McCain/Obama in a statistical TIE!!! PER GALLUP!!!

Damn your stupid. No one is claming the race is over but you and Drudge cherry picked a poll to suit your viewpoint.

Do you want us to start a new thread for every poll that shows Obama winning? No because it doesn't really matter and it is a waste of time.

I for one will admit I am extremely nervous until on election night and McCain concedes and Obama won and I have stated that for months now.

BigRedChief
10-17-2008, 08:01 AM
Damn your stupid. No one is claming the race is over but you and Drudge cherry picked a poll to suit your viewpoint.

Do you want us to start a new thread for every poll that shows Obama winning? No because it doesn't really matter and it is a waste of time.

I for one will admit I am extremely nervous until on election night and McCain concedes and Obama won and I have stated that for months now.
No chit. Keep all the polls in one place.

I've said that the race will tighten up. We will probably go into the voting booths with Obama's lead within the margain of error.

McCain has about 46% of the vote sewn up and so does Obama. The independents are leaning towards Obama right now. Hence the 52%-45% polls you see. It ain't over yet.

BigRedChief
10-17-2008, 08:13 AM
Man - Look at all the panic and bitching from the Obamatons. If the race was really over, I'd suspect that uneasy feeling that spurs on your "oh - that poll doesn't count" and "u r an idiot" posts wouldn't be there. The data is there. It's from Gallup. They must do it for a reason.

I'm amazed how many professional statisticians/pollsters/political scientists live on this Internet football message board.

McCain/Obama in a statistical TIE!!! PER GALLUP!!!

Poll: Voters souring on McCain, Obama stays steady

<CITE>By ALAN FRAM and TREVOR TOMPSON, Associated Press Writers</CITE>
WASHINGTON (AP) — When it comes to the public's image of John McCain, it's as if somebody dialed the electricity down in the past month. For Barack Obama, the juice is still flowing.
People's regard for the Republican presidential nominee has deteriorated across-the-board since September, an Associated Press-Yahoo! News poll showed Friday, with McCain losing ground in how favorably he's seen and in a long list of personal qualities voters seek in White House contenders.
Perceptions of Obama have improved or remained steady. Beyond views of the two rivals' character traits, McCain faces another problem — Obama is more trusted on the economy, the contest's commanding issue, including a 15-percentage-point edge for better grasping how the raging financial crisis is affecting people.

<!-- secondary class floats image to left -->http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/nws/elections/ap_ypoll_10162008.jpg

Obama's image has been sturdy even as voters' views of the overall campaign have tumbled downhill since September. The portion of people saying the contest excites them has sunk to 32 percent while those calling it frustrating have grown to 41 percent — and in both cases, six in 10 of those whose feelings have worsened are McCain backers.
Negative campaigning and a month of intense public focus on collapsing global economic and financial markets have not been kind to McCain. The new AP-Yahoo! News poll of likely voters, conducted this month by Knowledge Networks, shows more people viewing him favorably than unfavorably by just 5 percentage points, down from a 21-point difference in mid-September.
During the same period, Obama went the other way, increasing a 5-percentage-point net favorable rating to 15 points. Now, Obama is seen favorably by 57 percent and McCain by 52 percent — a close margin that masks the opposite direction the two rivals' ratings are heading.

"He kind of scared me," Leesa Zick, 48, an undecided Republican from Edwardsville, Ill., said of McCain's abrupt and short-lived suspension of his campaign last month during Capitol Hill talks on a financial package. "We need a president who can deal with multiple tasks. It seemed like it overwhelmed him."

For McCain, the poll's good news is that despite a difficult month, his public image is not dramatically worse than Obama's and in several areas remains better. The public still rates him higher than Obama for keeping America safe, working with both political parties, and being decisive, experienced and competent.

"He's more qualified than Obama, definitely, because of his experience and history, " said Richard Tosti, 67, a Republican from Rochester, N.Y.

Zick and Tosti are among about 2,000 people the AP-Yahoo! News poll has been tracking since November. By repeatedly questioning them, the survey has opened a detailed window on how individuals have reacted to the campaign's twists and turns.
Less than three weeks from Election Day, Obama has taken a solid lead over McCain in most national and swing-state polls. The AP-Yahoo! News survey underscores the morale problem McCain faces.

Obama supporters are more than twice as likely to say they're excited about the race and significantly more likely to say they're interested and hopeful. McCain backers, meanwhile, more often say they feel frustrated and helpless. Underscoring a period that has seen the rival candidates trade personal attacks, about a fifth of those backing each say they're angry.
"There's a lot of mudslinging, which I've never been a fan of," said Eric Juhl, 27, a Republican and McCain backer from Abilene, Kan. "And to me, the media seems pretty left-wing oriented. It's kind of frustrating."

A sour public mood is typical late in presidential campaigns as both sides' attacks accumulate, said University of Wisconsin political scientist and polling authority Charles Franklin. This year's disenchantment is probably magnified by worries about how the candidates would bolster the economy, he said.

Even so, Obama has staked out a clear advantage on economic concerns in the AP-Yahoo! News poll. The Illinois senator is trusted more than McCain to improve the economy by 54 percent to 44 percent, and to handle the financial crisis by 53 percent to 46 percent.

Obama also has a 56 percent to 41 percent advantage for understanding how the financial crisis affects people. Unhappily for McCain, six in 10 voters who may still change their minds, about as many independents and even one in 10 McCain backers prefer Obama on that question.

"To me his background indicates he'd be a little more sensitive to the middle class" in addressing economic problems, Peggy Chilton, 72, an independent from Los Angeles who hasn't decided on a candidate, said of Obama.
The numbers don't get better for McCain when it comes to personal traits.

Following debates between the two rivals in which the Arizona senator has appeared angry at times, 46 percent consider him hot-tempered, more than triple the 13 percent who say so about Obama.

"He'd be a little nerve-racking to have in the White House, jumping real fast," Darlene Finley, 48, an Obama-leaning independent from Ossineke, Mich., said of McCain. "When you're talking about war, that's something you don't want to do, jumping real fast."
Since September, McCain has lost ground on nearly every quality tested in the poll, including lower scores for being likable, decisive, honest, competent, intelligent and inspiring.

He's also lost ground for understanding ordinary peoples' problems, caring about "people like you" and improving America's international standing. Growing numbers even see him as supporting big business over the public interest and being influenced by lobbyists — despite repeated vows to do exactly the opposite.

Obama's ratings have stayed level since last month for most qualities tested, though he has shown some improvement in whether he's considered experienced and decisive.

Paralleling McCain's problems are similar ones faced by his running mate, Sarah Palin.
A month ago, more people said the Alaska governor made them more likely to vote for McCain than less likely by 14 percentage points. That gap is now down to 3 points — even as growing numbers say her Democratic counterpart, Joe Biden, makes them more inclined to support Obama.

The AP-Yahoo! News poll included 841 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 3-13 and has an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Included were interviews with 373 people who initially said they were Democrats, 252 Republicans and 214 independents, for whom the margins of sampling error are plus or minus 5.1, 6.2 and 6.7 percentage points, respectively.

The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks, which initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods and followed with online interviews. People chosen for the study who had no Internet access were given it for free.

Baby Lee
10-17-2008, 08:13 AM
Another liberal elitist, ladies and gents.

FWIW, I especially love the "If you vote for Obama, no one should care what the American public thinks" line.

So completely not what I said that one wonders concerning your mastery of English grammar and syntax.

Couldn't be that even you realized that the only way to deride my post was to mischaracterize it? Naw, no one's that much of a wuss.

Bootlegged
10-17-2008, 08:18 AM
Damn your stupid. No one is claming the race is over but you and Drudge cherry picked a poll to suit your viewpoint.

Do you want us to start a new thread for every poll that shows Obama winning? No because it doesn't really matter and it is a waste of time.

I for one will admit I am extremely nervous until on election night and McCain concedes and Obama won and I have stated that for months now.

Ok, Dirk.

Bootlegged
10-17-2008, 08:20 AM
:deevee:

You are cherry picking polls. :deevee:


http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=194217

Baby Lee
10-17-2008, 08:21 AM
Ok, Dirk.

your AND stupid?

Bootlegged
10-17-2008, 08:29 AM
your AND stupid?

I think that is what he was going for.

dirk digler
10-17-2008, 08:31 AM
I think that is what he was going for.

I was.

tiptap
10-17-2008, 08:32 AM
So completely not what I said that one wonders concerning your mastery of English grammar and syntax.

Couldn't be that even you realized that the only way to deride my post was to mischaracterize it? Naw, no one's that much of a wuss.

No your original statements were so obtuse as to leave a lawyer with all the freedom of intent still vetted in whether any phrase was wit or wry or reason.

Baby Lee
10-17-2008, 08:37 AM
No your original statements were so obtuse as to leave a lawyer with all the freedom of intent still vetted in whether any phrase was wit or wry or reason.

WTF? There are still people who will well up and run off for a private cry if you mention the concept 'Florida Voter' to them 8 years later.

Myself, I'm pretty close to the 'done giving a shit for a good while' stage.

If the entire nation is gonna swallow, from Obama no less, that "free wheelin' deregulated capitalism as designed by Mr. John McCain" is the cause of the current economic woes without so much as a gulp or a 'what now?' it's pretty much a waste of brain cells to even care what the american populace thinks.

Get me mine, follow my bliss, stock up of reruns of This Old House.

I'll bite, what part passed your comprehension?

tiptap
10-17-2008, 08:41 AM
Well I have been reading Swift with my daughter, I didn't really want to parse your lines. They want to be erudite. I am sure they fill that well. But your views and style don't interest me enough to put in the time. So technically all of it.

Baby Lee
10-17-2008, 08:45 AM
Well I have been reading Swift with my daughter, I didn't really want to parse your lines. They want to be erudite. I am sure they fill that well. But your views and style don't interest me enough to put in the time. So technically all of it.

You do realize that 'I couldn't be bothered to pay attention to a few short sentences' and 'your writings are obtuse' are distinct concepts?
Should we assume a similar level of comprehensional laxity in all of your opinions or will you warn us when your opinions were formed in a 'too consumed reading Swift to my kid' haze?

tiptap
10-17-2008, 08:51 AM
Sure It was a personal attack on your style. So I don't mind the retort.

triple
10-17-2008, 10:07 AM
Now AP/Yahoo also has it a statistical dead heat... Obama 44 McCain 42

Bootlegged
10-17-2008, 10:16 AM
Now AP/Yahoo also has it a statistical dead heat... Obama 44 McCain 42

CHERRY PICKER!!!!

ROFL

AP/Yahoo polled nearly 60% Democrats in this poll - and still a dead heat.

triple
10-17-2008, 10:51 AM
CHERRY PICKER!!!!

ROFL

AP/Yahoo polled nearly 60% Democrats in this poll - and still a dead heat.

on the other hand, they have no way of polling all the Acorn voters who don't technically exist.

Ultra Peanut
10-17-2008, 02:23 PM
Now AP/Yahoo also has it a statistical dead heat... Obama 44 McCain 42Drudge: The only name in news!

oldandslow
10-17-2008, 03:06 PM
CHERRY PICKER!!!!

ROFL

AP/Yahoo polled nearly 60% Democrats in this poll - and still a dead heat.

Drudge is full of shit...

This poll was never meant to be used as a tracker. Or probably even to see the light of day. It entered the field on October 3 -- two weeks ago!!!!!!!!!!!

For another thing, it's an internet-based poll:

The survey was conducted using the web-enabled KnowledgePanelSM, a probability-based Panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Initially, participants are chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone to participate in the webenabled KnowledgePanelSM. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access, Knowledge Networks provides at no cost an Internet appliance and Internet service connection. People who already have computers and Internet service are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and then are sent emails three to four times a month inviting them to participate in research.

For a third thing, it has no likely voter screen or a registered voter screen ... it's a poll of all adults.

Go to 538.com and read all about it.

SBK
10-17-2008, 03:13 PM
Drudge is full of shit...

This poll was never meant to be used as a tracker. Or probably even to see the light of day. It entered the field on October 3 -- two weeks ago!!!!!!!!!!!

For another thing, it's an internet-based poll:

The survey was conducted using the web-enabled KnowledgePanelSM, a probability-based Panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Initially, participants are chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone to participate in the webenabled KnowledgePanelSM. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access, Knowledge Networks provides at no cost an Internet appliance and Internet service connection. People who already have computers and Internet service are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and then are sent emails three to four times a month inviting them to participate in research.

For a third thing, it has no likely voter screen or a registered voter screen ... it's a poll of all adults.

Go to 538.com and read all about it.

No mention that it was made up of 873 democrats and 650 republicans?

splatbass
10-17-2008, 10:16 PM
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

HolmeZz
10-18-2008, 12:06 AM
No mention that it was made up of 873 democrats and 650 republicans?

It's a friggin' web poll. It's about as scientific as a ChiefsPlanet poll. Clicking Republican or Democrat doesn't actually make you one.

whoman69
10-18-2008, 10:21 AM
No mention that it was made up of 873 democrats and 650 republicans?

How many independents? Do you think that in an internet poll that some of the people could have lied to skew the poll. Internet polls can never be considered scientific.

SBK
10-18-2008, 10:22 AM
How many independents? Do you think that in an internet poll that some of the people could have lied to skew the poll. Internet polls can never be considered scientific.

So they can lie about their party online but not via phone poll?

If these polls show a huge lead you O-bots believe them like gospel, but when they're close you all point out how stupid polling is. LMAO

splatbass
10-18-2008, 12:49 PM
So they can lie about their party online but not via phone poll?

If these polls show a huge lead you O-bots believe them like gospel, but when they're close you all point out how stupid polling is. LMAO

This is the only poll that doesn't show a huge lead, so it is the only one you McCain supporters show. And then you have the nerve to accuse us?

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Ultra Peanut
10-20-2008, 07:20 PM
Oh, hi. I didn't see you come in.

Gallup 10/20

O-50, M-45 LV Traditional
O-52, M-43 LV Expanded
O-52, M-41 RV

whatsmynameagain
11-01-2008, 03:06 PM
Scream and cry - first ACORN and now this. Things are looky scary for Barry.


VERY VERY SCAREY!!!! EWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW

Calcountry
11-01-2008, 03:41 PM
Drudge: The only name in news!gamechanger!

Ultra Peanut
11-01-2008, 05:11 PM
Oh. Hello there, stranger.

Gallup 11/1

O-52, M-42 LV Traditional
O-52, M-42 LV Expanded
O-52, M-41 RV

***SPRAYER
11-01-2008, 06:08 PM
http://www.frontpagemag.com/Media/Homepage/InTheTank.jpg

Ultra Peanut
11-01-2008, 06:09 PM
liebrull media m i rite