PDA

View Full Version : Elections I changed my mind... there won't be a "Bradley Effect" this year.


jAZ
10-20-2008, 09:49 PM
I was worried that even though the Bradley Effect has disappeared in recent years, it might make a return in 2008 given the fact things are just different when voting for President (ie, people have gotten used to lower level offices, people will vote Dems down ticket, but Rep at the top, etc).

But Colin Powell was asked about it on Meet The Press and wondered about this possible answer.

I'm willing to bet it's true.

The Bradley Effect didn't go away, it's just already included in the polling numbers published routinely.

The change over the last 25 years isn't some magic that allows people to be more honest in polling, or less racist (though I think that latter is true).

It's that campaigns have gotten a lot better at catering to closet racists and giving them a whole list of possible justifications for why they aren't willing vote for the black guy. The excuses provided by opponents (in Obama's case terrorist, communist, liar, radical, elitist, foreign, muslim, denise's justification-du-juor, etc.) allows them to be comfortable saying publicly that they are voting against the black candidate without having to admit the real reason publicly.

wazu
10-20-2008, 09:55 PM
Sounds like a pretty logical explanation. I'd have to agree.

Mr. Kotter
10-20-2008, 10:02 PM
Guess we'll see in 2 weeks or so.

I'll still feel much better if Obama is up by at least 6% heading into November 4.

jAZ
10-20-2008, 10:04 PM
Guess we'll see in 2 weeks or so.

I'll still feel much better if Obama is up by at least 6% heading into November 4.

Agreed.

patteeu
10-21-2008, 06:10 AM
I think it's silly to believe that racists of yesteryear were too dumb, uninformed, or uncreative to think of excuses to not vote for a black man other than his race. I think it's naive to think that politicians of yesteryear weren't smart enough to come up with a laundry list of reasons not to vote for their opposition. IMO, if the Bradley effect has disappeared, it's because anti-black racism is far less of a factor today than it was 2 or 3 decades ago despite what democrats, in general, and Obama supporters, in particular, would have us believe.

jAZ
10-21-2008, 07:48 AM
I think it's silly to believe that racists of yesteryear were too dumb, uninformed, or uncreative to think of excuses to not vote for a black man other than his race. I think it's naive to think that politicians of yesteryear weren't smart enough to come up with a laundry list of reasons not to vote for their opposition. IMO, if the Bradley effect has disappeared, it's because anti-black racism is far less of a factor today than it was 2 or 3 decades ago despite what democrats, in general, and Obama supporters, in particular, would have us believe.
Yes, because political campaigns haven't learned a thing or two about campaign messaging in 30 years.

whoman69
10-21-2008, 07:49 AM
If it keeps Obama's campaign still hungry for more then its worth pursuit. The difference between now and then is the opposition didn't have to be as transparent. I don't really see anyone these days saying outwardly they would vote for Obama when they don't mean it. There's enough out there actively saying that Obama is a lying Muslim commie.

dirk digler
10-21-2008, 08:00 AM
There was a story that came out the other day from somebody in Bradley's campaign that said the Bradley effect never happened.

What they were seeing was a steady decline in Bradley's numbers a month prior to the election and that was a result of his opponent switching strategies and started talking about crime.

Also this from Bradley's own pollster

Even later analysis of the 1982 election revealed the weakness in the Bradley Effect theory as Bradley actually won on election day turnout, but lost the absentee vote so badly that Deukmejian pulled ahead to win. That Bradley won the vote on Election Day would hardly seem to suggest a hidden or last minute anti-black backlash--on the contrary, it suggests how easy it would have been for weekend polls and Election Day exit polls to get it wrong, since the decisive group of voters had largely already voted before the final weekend and never showed up at the polls to answer the questions of exit pollsters.

Alphaman
10-21-2008, 10:05 AM
I think it's silly to believe that racists of yesteryear were too dumb, uninformed, or uncreative to think of excuses to not vote for a black man other than his race. I think it's naive to think that politicians of yesteryear weren't smart enough to come up with a laundry list of reasons not to vote for their opposition. IMO, if the Bradley effect has disappeared, it's because anti-black racism is far less of a factor today than it was 2 or 3 decades ago despite what democrats, in general, and Obama supporters, in particular, would have us believe.

I would have agreed until Rush Limbaugh's comments on Powell's endorsement.

phisherman
10-21-2008, 10:40 AM
i fail to see how the bradley effect is any different than poor white trash people voting for mccain just because he's white.

patteeu
10-21-2008, 11:37 AM
I would have agreed until Rush Limbaugh's comments on Powell's endorsement.

Did you hear Juan Williams say that Rush was probably right on Sunday morning?

Calcountry
10-21-2008, 11:59 AM
Agreed.Que the queen music/ Under Pressure......

How sad, that you have staked so much of your existence on the outcome of this election. After all the sweat, all the reading, all the posting, you still are sweating the outcome. LMAO.

Alphaman
10-21-2008, 01:16 PM
Did you hear Juan Williams say that Rush was probably right on Sunday morning?

No I didn't. Do you have a link to his statements?

I did watch Powell on Meet the Press. He laid out his reasoning with clarity, detail and depth. The notion that his endorsement was about race is ridiculous and insulting to both him and Obama. Rush (and anyone else who says his endorsement was solely about race) loses a great amount of credibility.

patteeu
10-21-2008, 08:23 PM
No I didn't. Do you have a link to his statements?

I did watch Powell on Meet the Press. He laid out his reasoning with clarity, detail and depth. The notion that his endorsement was about race is ridiculous and insulting to both him and Obama. Rush (and anyone else who says his endorsement was solely about race) loses a great amount of credibility.

I saw it on TV on the Fox News Sunday program. I don't know if they post transcripts of their roundtable discussions.