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Bootlegged
11-01-2008, 07:15 AM
The racists are coming out of the woods..

Portlantis
11-01-2008, 07:36 AM
From fivethirtyeight.com.

Do you spook easily?

Judging by the response in my inbox, some of you do.

Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

So go out to your Halloween parties and enjoy yourself, and we'll be back to covering the polls for you tomorrow.

If, say, Rassmussen shows McCain with a one-point lead tomorrow, I'll crap my pants. But I'm not going to lose any sleep over one day of polling from a pollster who's known for being unreliable.

Ultra Peanut
11-01-2008, 07:40 AM
lol

Bootlegged
11-01-2008, 07:49 AM
Obamatons are in panic..


"Blood will run in the streets"


ROFL

Bootlegged
11-01-2008, 07:53 AM
Zogby = the devil

29 year old Daily Kos pollster (538) = da genious

Got it.

orange
11-01-2008, 07:53 AM
"Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much)."

Maybe fivethirtyeight.com needs to study history a bit. The polls have broken late for the Republicans at least the last four elections. "Election day looming" seems to be reason enough.

Portlantis
11-01-2008, 08:11 AM
"Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much)."

Maybe fivethirtyeight.com needs to study history a bit. The polls have broken late for the Republicans at least the last four elections. "Election day looming" seems to be reason enough.

Which may be true. But the last Zogby poll showed Obama up by 7. Do you honestly believe anything short of him eating a live baby on stage would cause him to lose that much support in just one day?

Ultra Peanut
11-01-2008, 08:17 AM
Zogby = the devil

29 year old Daily Kos pollster (538) = da genious

Got it.He's not a pollster. He's a statistical analyst with a track record of success in predicting the primaries and the inventor of the most accurate prediction system in baseball, which has been borne out in many cases, my favorite one probably being this:

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2007/03/computers-dont-have-feelings.html

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2007/09/computers-dont-have-feelings-iii.html

Nope, Nate doesn't know shit (http://vegaswatch.net/2008/09/evaluating-april-mlb-predictions-2008.html):

The Best

1. PECOTA, Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted wins: 88
On pace for: 97.4

Well, this was a pretty good call, wasn't it. According to the metric I've come up with to compare these projections, this was the second best one over the last two years, behind only PECOTA's 2007 White Sox projection. Tampa Bay has surpassed even the most optimistic of expectations; even if you just look at their Pythagorean record, of 87-66, they're on pace to beat PECOTA's projection by four games.

Ultra Peanut
11-01-2008, 08:19 AM
"Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much)."

Maybe fivethirtyeight.com needs to study history a bit. The polls have broken late for the Republicans at least the last four elections. "Election day looming" seems to be reason enough.Um, no? Kerry was down huge and gained a lot of ground late to make it close in 2004.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

kstater
11-01-2008, 08:34 AM
What does it say about McCain that he's only one point ahead of Osama bin Laden? I assume that's who bootlicker is refering to.

dirk digler
11-01-2008, 08:49 AM
LMAO

The actual number is 49.1 for Obama and 44.1 for McCain

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="383"><tbody><tr><td width="113">Week Four
Three-Day
Tracking Poll
</td> <td width="54"> 10-31
</td> <td width="54"> 10-30
</td> <td width="54"> 10-29
</td> <td width="54"> 10-28
</td> <td width="54"> 10-27
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="113"> Obama
</td> <td width="54"> 49.1%
</td> <td width="54"> 50.1%
</td> <td width="54"> 50.2%
</td> <td width="54"> 49.1%
</td> <td width="54"> 49.0%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="113"> McCain
</td> <td width="54"> 44.1%
</td> <td width="54"> 43.1%
</td> <td width="54"> 43.3%
</td> <td width="54"> 44.4%
</td> <td width="54"> 44.7%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="113"> Others/Not sure
</td> <td width="54"> 6.8%
</td> <td width="54"> 6.8%
</td> <td width="54"> 6.5%
</td> <td width="54"> 6.5%
</td> <td width="54"> 6.3%
</td></tr></tbody></table>

dirk digler
11-01-2008, 08:51 AM
Oh and Rasmussen has Obama back up by 5 51-46 with McCain losing a point

whoman69
11-01-2008, 08:52 AM
"Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much)."

Maybe fivethirtyeight.com needs to study history a bit. The polls have broken late for the Republicans at least the last four elections. "Election day looming" seems to be reason enough.

Yeah, I remember that big push late for George HW Bush that brought him up to 37%. :rolleyes:

Ultra Peanut
11-01-2008, 09:04 AM
LMAO

The actual number is 49.1 for Obama and 44.1 for McCain

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="383"><tbody><tr><td width="113">Week Four
Three-Day
Tracking Poll
</td> <td width="54"> 10-31
</td> <td width="54"> 10-30
</td> <td width="54"> 10-29
</td> <td width="54"> 10-28
</td> <td width="54"> 10-27
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="113"> Obama
</td> <td width="54"> 49.1%
</td> <td width="54"> 50.1%
</td> <td width="54"> 50.2%
</td> <td width="54"> 49.1%
</td> <td width="54"> 49.0%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="113"> McCain
</td> <td width="54"> 44.1%
</td> <td width="54"> 43.1%
</td> <td width="54"> 43.3%
</td> <td width="54"> 44.4%
</td> <td width="54"> 44.7%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="113"> Others/Not sure
</td> <td width="54"> 6.8%
</td> <td width="54"> 6.8%
</td> <td width="54"> 6.5%
</td> <td width="54"> 6.5%
</td> <td width="54"> 6.3%
</td></tr></tbody></table>B-b-b-b-but the ONE DAY SAMPLE...

I wonder how Drudge must feel now, realizing that blogs have rendered him wholly irrelevant.

KCJohnny
11-01-2008, 09:58 AM
Which may be true. But the last Zogby poll showed Obama up by 7. Do you honestly believe anything short of him eating a live baby on stage would cause him to lose that much support in just one day?

If the masses of Americans actually knew his abortion policies (http://www.blackgenocide.org/obama.html), it would be tantamount to just that.

whatsmynameagain
11-01-2008, 11:37 AM
If the masses of Americans actually knew his abortion policies (http://www.blackgenocide.org/obama.html), it would be tantamount to just that.


Who says big girls dont cry.......

Mr. Laz
11-01-2008, 11:38 AM
well that's it ...... McCain is teh winner!!!!!!


everyone gets a cookie

Calcountry
11-01-2008, 11:48 AM
lolLMAO

It's time to sweat.

Bowser
11-01-2008, 11:58 AM
If the masses of Americans actually knew his abortion policies (http://www.blackgenocide.org/obama.html), it would be tantamount to just that.

Abortion just isn't a hot topic issue this elecetion, John.

Bowser
11-01-2008, 11:59 AM
LMAO

It's time to sweat.

IT'S FALLING APART FOR TEH OBAMAS

Smed1065
11-01-2008, 12:04 PM
Abortion just isn't a hot topic issue this elecetion, John.


WTF it is the only factor! ?KCHummer

God told me so. Just wait, I will be right some millennium.

DaneMcCloud
11-01-2008, 12:27 PM
If the masses of Americans actually knew his abortion policies (http://www.blackgenocide.org/obama.html), it would be tantamount to just that.

Who gives a fuck?

IF the Supreme Court ruled abortions illegal, it would just go back to the states.

And 32 states already have measures IN PLACE to allow legal abortions (and more would surely follow).

It's a NON-ISSUE.

DaneMcCloud
11-01-2008, 12:29 PM
Abortion just isn't a hot topic issue this elecetion, John.

It probably won't be, ever again.

It's been more than 35 years since Roe V. Wade and it took its biggest hit back in 1992.

Every 4 years, it's going to be less and less of a political issue.

Mecca
11-01-2008, 01:22 PM
I enjoy the extremely cherry picked polls, doing this would be like trying to find a person who thinks the Chiefs have a chance at making the playoffs.

whoman69
11-01-2008, 01:35 PM
If the masses of Americans actually knew his abortion policies (http://www.blackgenocide.org/obama.html), it would be tantamount to just that.

If the right would like to talk about abortion policies instead of making this the most divisive issue in the country, we might have something to talk about. At least come to the middle in allowing abortion in the case of rape/incest/danger to the mother. At least come to the middle in stating that if you don't want abortion, then maybe birth control should be ok. McBush wanted to do that but knew that he needed to pander to his entrenched radical party base.

BigRedChief
11-01-2008, 01:58 PM
http://i264.photobucket.com/albums/ii161/ummkno/obamajpg.gif
My 16 year old son made this

Mr. Flopnuts
11-01-2008, 01:59 PM
What was the source of the poll? www.republicanskickass.com?

orange
11-01-2008, 02:27 PM
Um, no? Kerry was down huge and gained a lot of ground late to make it close in 2004.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

Maybe you should read your own posts. That chart you posted ends at Oct. 27 - a week BEFORE the election.

I said "broke LATE for the Republicans."

Check out THIS page - from YOUR OWN SOURCE - for movement the LAST WEEK of 2004 (you know - like Oct 31).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

RCP Average 10/27 - 11/1 48.9% 46.9% Bush +2.0
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/31 - 11/1 50% 46% Bush +4
Rasmussen (3,000 LV) 10/30 - 11/1 50.2% 48.5% Bush +1.7
TIPP (936 LV) 10/30 - 11/1 46.9% 44.3% Bush +2.6
FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30 - 10/31 46% 48% Kerry +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup (1573 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 49% 47% Bush +2
CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 50% 47% Bush +3
ARG (1258 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 48% 49% Kerry +1
Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27 - 10/29 51% 45% Bush +6

Ultra Peanut
11-01-2008, 02:29 PM
Maybe you should read your own posts. That chart ends at Oct. 27 - a week BEFORE the election.Holy fucking shit. The chart ends on NOVEMBER 1, 2004. The day before the election. It is for the WEEK OF OCTOBER 27TH.

The link you posted shows Bush's lead getting SMALLER. Jesus.

orange
11-01-2008, 02:34 PM
Where is the equivalent chart to the one you posted for the last days of that election?

[edit] I see that they cut it off at 11/1.

Ultra Peanut
11-01-2008, 02:42 PM
Where is the equivalent chart to the one you posted for the last days of that election?

[edit] I see that they cut it off at 11/1.Because polling was kind of irrelevant after that, what with the election happening and all.

Adept Havelock
11-01-2008, 02:42 PM
Because polling was kind of irrelevant after that, what with the election happening and all.

LMAO

orange
11-01-2008, 02:48 PM
Because polling was kind of irrelevant after that, what with the election happening and all.

Funny, that's not what Democrats were saying the day of the Election as I remember it. ;)

I'll apologize, though, for misconstruing your post. I have had it mind that the election was on Nov. 4 last time, for some reason.

Calcountry
11-01-2008, 03:05 PM
The racists are coming out of the woods..OH NOOOOOS!!111

Cosmos
11-01-2008, 03:22 PM
The racists are coming out of the woods..

No... you've been out for some time now.

BWillie
11-01-2008, 06:13 PM
The racists are coming out of the woods..

So by voting for Mccain that means your a racist? WTF.

I find it odd that people say white people who vote for Mccain and white people in general are racist, however, it's about 50/50 for whites voting for Mccain, whereas 99% of all blacks will vote for Obama. That to me is racist.

Ultra Peanut
11-01-2008, 10:31 PM
So by voting for Mccain that means your a racist? WTF.

I find it odd that people say white people who vote for Mccain and white people in general are racist, however, it's about 50/50 for whites voting for Mccain, whereas 99% of all blacks will vote for Obama. That to me is racist.90% of blacks are going to vote for Obama. 90% of blacks voted for Kerry and Gore.

Bootlegged himself is a racist, and he's saying that the racists are finally going to step up and stop THE MUSLIM MARXIST UNAMERICAN NEGRO DEVIL from becoming president.

BigRedChief
11-02-2008, 01:26 AM
What was the source of the poll? www.republicanskickass.com? (http://www.republicanskickass.com?)
ROFL

Woodrow Call
11-02-2008, 01:54 AM
:D

http://www.zogby.com/main.htm

UTICA, New York -- After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.


Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."