PDA

View Full Version : Elections What a McCain electoral victory looks like


whoman69
11-02-2008, 07:58 PM
Scenarios posted below.

whoman69
11-02-2008, 08:00 PM
This was by far the most common McCain victory scenario, occurring 169 times out of 10,000 simulations this afternoon:
...this would be a boring ol' map. Obama wins everything that either Al Gore or John Kerry won. McCain wins everything else. Problem for McCain: this becomes a losing map if he loses Colorado, and Obama's lead in early voting there will make things tough for McCain.

Ultra Peanut
11-02-2008, 08:01 PM
Looks like... fiction.

Taco John
11-02-2008, 08:02 PM
No way in hell...

Looks like KCJohnny is going to have to get practice saying President Obama.

whoman69
11-02-2008, 08:04 PM
The four scenarios that follow were the next most common, occurring about 40 times each:
...this is the scenario that Democrats are terrified about, losing Pennsylvania while winning Colorado and Virginia (which leaves them stuck at 268 electoral votes), but it occurred far less frequently than the 2004-style map that we discussed above.

Taco John
11-02-2008, 08:05 PM
The four scenarios that follow were the next most common, occurring about 40 times each:
...this is the scenario that Democrats are terrified about, losing Pennsylvania while winning Colorado and Virginia (which leaves them stuck at 268 electoral votes), but it occurred far less frequently than the 2004-style map that we discussed above.

That one looks plausible, but I don't believe that McCain has a prayer to win Pennsylvania.

whoman69
11-02-2008, 08:06 PM
Then we get some variations on a theme, involving McCain winning some combination of these states (CO/VA/PA), plus occasionally also New Hampshire:

Ultra Peanut
11-02-2008, 08:07 PM
...this is the scenario that Democrats are terrified about, losing Pennsylvania while winning Colorado and Virginia (which leaves them stuck at 268 electoral votes)The Democrats aren't terrified by that scenario, because they win under it.

whoman69
11-02-2008, 08:08 PM
Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be "must-wins" for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it's pretty much over.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://www.411mania.com/politics/columns/89380/What-Would-A-McCain-Win-Look-Like?.htm

Taco John
11-02-2008, 08:10 PM
The Democrats aren't terrified by that scenario, because they win under it.



He's right. You did the math wrong there. That's 272 electoral votes for Obama.

whoman69
11-02-2008, 08:10 PM
The Democrats aren't terrified by that scenario, because they win under it.

It gives McCain 270 and Obama 268

Taco John
11-02-2008, 08:11 PM
No wait... I did the math wrong.

That's 269 to 269...

warrior
11-02-2008, 08:11 PM
Looks like... fiction.

That's funny ROFL

banyon
11-02-2008, 08:12 PM
It gives McCain 270 and Obama 268

your math is right

Taco John
11-02-2008, 08:14 PM
Electoral Tie:


http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/attachment.php?attachmentid=82502&stc=1&d=1225677871

Taco John
11-02-2008, 08:15 PM
doh.
I see my mistake.

Freaking Idaho.

How'd I mis-click that!?

Mecca
11-02-2008, 08:16 PM
Don't worry I think Obama is gonna take Florida.

Taco John
11-02-2008, 08:19 PM
Here's my prediction...

whoman69
11-02-2008, 08:21 PM
Wish I could figure how you guys post those. All the ones I see are flash images. You taking a screenshot?

Taco John
11-02-2008, 08:21 PM
But here's what I WISH would happen:

Taco John
11-02-2008, 08:22 PM
Wish I could figure how you guys post those. All the ones I see are flash images. You taking a screenshot?



www.270towin.com

HolmeZz
11-02-2008, 08:23 PM
Electoral tie = Obama win.

whoman69
11-02-2008, 08:26 PM
www.270towin.com

Still a flash map.

banyon
11-02-2008, 08:29 PM
Electoral tie = Obama win this time around.

I hadn't realized this until you pointed it out. Looks like 28-20 (2 tied). Nice.

Thig Lyfe
11-02-2008, 08:34 PM
Electoral tie = Obama win.

Is that because the Democrats won the All-Star game?

whoman69
11-02-2008, 08:36 PM
Is that because the Democrats won the All-Star game?

No its because in a tie the house breaks the tie by delegations. Democrats control delegations to 28 states.

kstater
11-02-2008, 08:39 PM
No its because in a tie the house breaks the tie by delegations. Democrats control delegations to 28 states.

Right now, but I believe that the incoming House would make the vote.

whoman69
11-02-2008, 09:05 PM
Pretty much I think any scenario involving a McCain win is a fantasy. So many things would have to fall into place that it just won't happen. The site I got these picture from gives him less than a 7% chance of winning. That most likely scenario happened in only 1.69 % of their scenarios.

I see it happening more like this:

whoman69
11-02-2008, 09:27 PM
This I think is the best that McCain could hope for. He still loses. On the other hand the upper end for Obama could include taking Georgia, North Dakota, Montana, and even less likely Arizona.

banyon
11-02-2008, 09:39 PM
Right now, but I believe that the incoming House would make the vote.

It would be the outgoing House I think.

The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.

whoman69
11-02-2008, 09:41 PM
Right now, but I believe that the incoming House would make the vote.

Took a lot of searching, but you are correct. Doesn't seem like it would give them much time as Congress is sworn in on Jan 3 and a new President to be in office by Jan 20 per the 20th ammendment.

Thig Lyfe
11-02-2008, 09:42 PM
No its because in a tie the house breaks the tie by delegations. Democrats control delegations to 28 states.

Well duh.

Ultra Peanut
11-02-2008, 10:00 PM
Is that because the Democrats won the All-Star game?Uh oh, John McCain is going to egg Bud Selig's house!

whoman69
11-03-2008, 09:56 AM
No comments from the right claiming a McBush landslide?

Taco John
11-03-2008, 10:12 AM
No comments from the right claiming a McBush landslide?


There might be some who are delusional enough to admit that they are holding hope for an outside shot at an electoral victory, but surely none of them are so detached from reality that they'd believe McCain is headed for an electoral landslide.

whoman69
11-03-2008, 10:57 AM
There might be some who are delusional enough to admit that they are holding hope for an outside shot at an electoral victory, but surely none of them are so detached from reality that they'd believe McCain is headed for an electoral landslide.

So they don't even want to post about the details of such a feat, how its even possible? Perhaps they are just now realizing what a pipe dream even an electoral victory is.

banyon
11-03-2008, 06:29 PM
Took a lot of searching, but you are correct. Doesn't seem like it would give them much time as Congress is sworn in on Jan 3 and a new President to be in office by Jan 20 per the 20th ammendment.

You guys must have a different definition of "immediate" than I do.

kstater
11-03-2008, 06:41 PM
You guys must have a different definition of "immediate" than I do.

I'm just going this story. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5386278&page=1

If the election is kicked to the House, Obama or McCain would have to control a majority of the 50 state delegations to win the White House. The newly elected and re-elected House members would vote in any doomsday scenario, Fortier said.

banyon
11-03-2008, 07:14 PM
I'm just going this story. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5386278&page=1

You and he are correct. I was basing my comments on a literal reading of the 12th Amendment, but the 20th provides that Congress may clarify this process by law, which they have as follows:

TITLE 3 > CHAPTER 1 > § 15Prev | Next § 15. Counting electoral votes in Congress

Congress shall be in session on the sixth day of January succeeding every meeting of the electors. The Senate and House of Representatives shall meet in the Hall of the House of Representatives at the hour of 1 o’clock in the afternoon on that day, and the President of the Senate shall be their presiding officer. Two tellers shall be previously appointed on the part of the Senate and two on the part of the House of Representatives, to whom shall be handed, as they are opened by the President of the Senate, all the certificates and papers purporting to be certificates of the electoral votes, which certificates and papers shall be opened, presented, and acted upon in the alphabetical order of the States, beginning with the letter A; and said tellers, having then read the same in the presence and hearing of the two Houses, shall make a list of the votes as they shall appear from the said certificates; and the votes having been ascertained and counted according to the rules in this subchapter provided, the result of the same shall be delivered to the President of the Senate, who shall thereupon announce the state of the vote, which announcement shall be deemed a sufficient declaration of the persons, if any, elected President and Vice President of the United States, and, together with a list of the votes, be entered on the Journals of the two Houses. Upon such reading of any such certificate or paper, the President of the Senate shall call for objections, if any. Every objection shall be made in writing, and shall state clearly and concisely, and without argument, the ground thereof, and shall be signed by at least one Senator and one Member of the House of Representatives before the same shall be received. When all objections so made to any vote or paper from a State shall have been received and read, the Senate shall thereupon withdraw, and such objections shall be submitted to the Senate for its decision; and the Speaker of the House of Representatives shall, in like manner, submit such objections to the House of Representatives for its decision; and no electoral vote or votes from any State which shall have been regularly given by electors whose appointment has been lawfully certified to according to section 6 of this title from which but one return has been received shall be rejected, but the two Houses concurrently may reject the vote or votes when they agree that such vote or votes have not been so regularly given by electors whose appointment has been so certified. If more than one return or paper purporting to be a return from a State shall have been received by the President of the Senate, those votes, and those only, shall be counted which shall have been regularly given by the electors who are shown by the determination mentioned in section 5 of this title to have been appointed, if the determination in said section provided for shall have been made, or by such successors or substitutes, in case of a vacancy in the board of electors so ascertained, as have been appointed to fill such vacancy in the mode provided by the laws of the State; but in case there shall arise the question which of two or more of such State authorities determining what electors have been appointed, as mentioned in section 5 of this title, is the lawful tribunal of such State, the votes regularly given of those electors, and those only, of such State shall be counted whose title as electors the two Houses, acting separately, shall concurrently decide is supported by the decision of such State so authorized by its law; and in such case of more than one return or paper purporting to be a return from a State, if there shall have been no such determination of the question in the State aforesaid, then those votes, and those only, shall be counted which the two Houses shall concurrently decide were cast by lawful electors appointed in accordance with the laws of the State, unless the two Houses, acting separately, shall concurrently decide such votes not to be the lawful votes of the legally appointed electors of such State. But if the two Houses shall disagree in respect of the counting of such votes, then, and in that case, the votes of the electors whose appointment shall have been certified by the executive of the State, under the seal thereof, shall be counted. When the two Houses have voted, they shall immediately again meet, and the presiding officer shall then announce the decision of the questions submitted. No votes or papers from any other State shall be acted upon until the objections previously made to the votes or papers from any State shall have been finally disposed of.

http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/html/uscode03/usc_sec_03_00000015----000-.html

HemiEd
11-03-2008, 07:59 PM
The most qualified person, John McCain, will not win this election. He made too many political mistakes, and Barrack Hussein Obama did too many things right.

1) Picking the VP running mate, Palin, switched the qualification issue from one side to the other.
2) The public is not as concerned about terrorism, as they once were. One of the few things, being associated with Bush, would be a positive, if driven home correctly.
3) Obama just looks and sounds good on TV. McCain should have used some professional help on his wardrobe.

I predict, this will be a landslide of Nixon/McGovern proportions. I only hope Obama's term ends up like Nixon's.

banyon
11-03-2008, 08:01 PM
The most qualified person, John McCain, will not win this election. He made too many political mistakes, and Barrack Hussein Obama did too many things right.

1) Picking the VP running mate, Palin, switched the qualification issue from one side to the other.
2) The public is not as concerned about terrorism, as they once were. One of the few things, being associated with Bush, would be a positive, if driven home correctly.
3) Obama just looks and sounds good on TV. McCain should have used some professional help on his wardrobe.

I predict, this will be a landslide of Nixon/McGovern proportions. I only hope Obama's term ends up like Nixon's.

I disagree with your first sentence and the infantile need to use one candidate's middle name and not the other's, but your analysis is spot on, AFAICS.

HemiEd
11-03-2008, 08:15 PM
I disagree with your first sentence and the infantile need to use one candidate's middle name and not the other's, but your analysis is spot on, AFAICS.

I honestly don't know John McCain's middle name. I was trying to be correct, but I do hate that name, and admit it.

Doesn't that name, and what it represents, bother most people a little bit. It must bother you, or you wouldn't have called it infantile. If he is your man, be proud of him, and all that is him.

I have seen posters, including the TS, calling McCain, McBush etc., I don't do that.

I don't think you have ever seen me use Donx or Faiders either.

banyon
11-03-2008, 08:23 PM
I honestly don't know John McCain's middle name. I was trying to be correct, but I do hate that name, and admit it.

Doesn't that name, and what it represents, bother most people a little bit. It must bother you, or you wouldn't have called it infantile. If he is your man, be proud of him, and all that is him.

I have seen posters, including the TS, calling McCain, McBush etc., I don't do that.

I don't think you have ever seen me use Donx or Faiders either.

I don't typically use the name variants either.

Yeah, I'd prefer that he had a different middle name. I'd prefer that i was 6'2" also. But it is what it is. it led some posters here to say that he could never be elected or nominated. It's a good thing people in general are more open minded than that.