RINGLEADER
11-04-2008, 09:48 AM
For fun I wrote a computer program that compiles the various polls nationally and by state, works out the outliers on both sides and then determines from the remaining pool of undecideds how they will break. In 2004 it was within two tenths of a percent of determining the final vote. The results using the final polls:
Obama: 52.89%
McCain: 46.17%
Others: .94%
Unless the polls are all uniformly wrong in their weighting and results (which at this point is so statistically unlikely as to be nearly impossible -- especially with the apparent break of undecideds in his direction over the last 24 hours) then Obama will safely win the popular vote. If the projected 131,000,000 votes I just heard on television turns out to be the case then you're looking at a final breakdown, if the aforementioned filtered poll results are accurate, of 69,285,900 votes for Obama and 60,482,700 for McCain.
If Obama wraps it up early those numbers could skew further in Obama's direction by depressing turnout on the west coast.
So how does McCain win? He has to hope that Obama doesn't win two of the following eight states: Colorado, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia (yes, there are a couple of scenarios where this doesn't net Obama a win but if Obama wins either Missouri or Indiana he's not going to have to worry about winning more than just Colorado) or Florida on its own. That isn't an inside-straight, that's a royal flush.
Chances of a McCain win IMO? 0.01%.
Obama is an inspiring political figure who has run a nearly flawless campaign. Except for a few weeks after Palin was introduced he has been almost politically perfect. I don't agree with many of the things he holds dear but when he wins he has won the right to try a transformational agenda if he chooses. Politically speaking I think he'll regret it in four years if he governs too far from the center (just as the GOP is regretting it today) but if he wins today he'll be in a unique position to really address some big-ticket issues for the long-term. I have my doubts but I really hope he proves me wrong.
Obama: 52.89%
McCain: 46.17%
Others: .94%
Unless the polls are all uniformly wrong in their weighting and results (which at this point is so statistically unlikely as to be nearly impossible -- especially with the apparent break of undecideds in his direction over the last 24 hours) then Obama will safely win the popular vote. If the projected 131,000,000 votes I just heard on television turns out to be the case then you're looking at a final breakdown, if the aforementioned filtered poll results are accurate, of 69,285,900 votes for Obama and 60,482,700 for McCain.
If Obama wraps it up early those numbers could skew further in Obama's direction by depressing turnout on the west coast.
So how does McCain win? He has to hope that Obama doesn't win two of the following eight states: Colorado, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia (yes, there are a couple of scenarios where this doesn't net Obama a win but if Obama wins either Missouri or Indiana he's not going to have to worry about winning more than just Colorado) or Florida on its own. That isn't an inside-straight, that's a royal flush.
Chances of a McCain win IMO? 0.01%.
Obama is an inspiring political figure who has run a nearly flawless campaign. Except for a few weeks after Palin was introduced he has been almost politically perfect. I don't agree with many of the things he holds dear but when he wins he has won the right to try a transformational agenda if he chooses. Politically speaking I think he'll regret it in four years if he governs too far from the center (just as the GOP is regretting it today) but if he wins today he'll be in a unique position to really address some big-ticket issues for the long-term. I have my doubts but I really hope he proves me wrong.