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View Full Version : Elections A Filtered Analysis Of All The Polls (And How McCain Wins)


RINGLEADER
11-04-2008, 10:48 AM
For fun I wrote a computer program that compiles the various polls nationally and by state, works out the outliers on both sides and then determines from the remaining pool of undecideds how they will break. In 2004 it was within two tenths of a percent of determining the final vote. The results using the final polls:

Obama: 52.89%
McCain: 46.17%
Others: .94%

Unless the polls are all uniformly wrong in their weighting and results (which at this point is so statistically unlikely as to be nearly impossible -- especially with the apparent break of undecideds in his direction over the last 24 hours) then Obama will safely win the popular vote. If the projected 131,000,000 votes I just heard on television turns out to be the case then you're looking at a final breakdown, if the aforementioned filtered poll results are accurate, of 69,285,900 votes for Obama and 60,482,700 for McCain.

If Obama wraps it up early those numbers could skew further in Obama's direction by depressing turnout on the west coast.

So how does McCain win? He has to hope that Obama doesn't win two of the following eight states: Colorado, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia (yes, there are a couple of scenarios where this doesn't net Obama a win but if Obama wins either Missouri or Indiana he's not going to have to worry about winning more than just Colorado) or Florida on its own. That isn't an inside-straight, that's a royal flush.

Chances of a McCain win IMO? 0.01%.

Obama is an inspiring political figure who has run a nearly flawless campaign. Except for a few weeks after Palin was introduced he has been almost politically perfect. I don't agree with many of the things he holds dear but when he wins he has won the right to try a transformational agenda if he chooses. Politically speaking I think he'll regret it in four years if he governs too far from the center (just as the GOP is regretting it today) but if he wins today he'll be in a unique position to really address some big-ticket issues for the long-term. I have my doubts but I really hope he proves me wrong.

Ultra Peanut
11-04-2008, 10:52 AM
I strongly doubt he rams anything through rashly with his mandate. He is, above all, pragmatic. He'll work on health care and energy, and other things the public is extremely amenable to, and he'll almost definitely give Republicans the chance to provide their input without writing them off beforehand. That's been his hallmark.

BigRedChief
11-04-2008, 10:55 AM
uhhhh someone else already does this quite well.

538.com

but I've played around with scripts for fun also.

dirk digler
11-04-2008, 10:55 AM
Good stuff Ringleader. I hope your program is right. I will take a 6 point win and that would be a electoral college landslide in the 350+ range

RINGLEADER
11-04-2008, 11:02 AM
Good stuff Ringleader. I hope your program is right. I will take a 6 point win and that would be a electoral college landslide in the 350+ range

I suspect that Obama gets close to that number but you'll see states like Ohio and Pennsylvania probably a little closer than some of the polls have shown. I think McCain has a chance to win North Carolina and Florida depending on how the early results come in.

RINGLEADER
11-04-2008, 11:05 AM
One other quick point: I can select direction for undecideds and even if McCain wins them all he still loses by a statistically significant number. Again, the only chance he has is that the pollsters are wrong by a margin that is so far outside their MoE (on all but one poll -- the right-leaning half of the Battleground poll) as to be almost impossible.

RINGLEADER
11-05-2008, 11:22 AM
For fun I wrote a computer program that compiles the various polls nationally and by state, works out the outliers on both sides and then determines from the remaining pool of undecideds how they will break. In 2004 it was within two tenths of a percent of determining the final vote. The results using the final polls:

Obama: 52.89%
McCain: 46.17%
Others: .94%



Final numbers (as of 9:00am the day after):

Obama: 63,084,590 (52.36%)
McCain: 55,847,367 (46.36%)
Others: 1,543,000 (approx) (1.28%)
Total: 120,474,957

Not too bad this year either -- looks like I'm close to being within two-tenths of a percent once again... :)

dirk digler
11-05-2008, 11:25 AM
Great job Ringleader. You should go into the polling business if you are not already

RINGLEADER
11-05-2008, 11:36 AM
Great job Ringleader. You should go into the polling business if you are not already

Yeah, that's just what the world needs. Another pollster. :)

But thanks for the compliment.