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Rain Man
11-16-2008, 06:11 PM
Okay, we're 1-9 right now, so we need a few things to break our way to get into the playoffs.

First, let's talk about winning the division.

We've got Denver at 6-4, San Diego at 4-5, and Oakland at 2-8. Right now, San Diego and Denver both have tiebreakers on us, and we've got the tiebreaker on Denver.

We need to finish 7-9 for the most part, other than possibly tying with Denver at 6-10 and winning a second-level tiebreaker. So we need to win out, and Denver needs to lose to at least 5 of the 6 remaining games on their schedule, and San Diego needs to lose at 5 of their remaining 7, and Oakland would have to go no better than 4-2 in their next six.

The bottom line is that we need to win all of our remaining divisional games or we're probably out.

Now, how about the wild card?

While four of these teams will win their divisions (likely winners in bold), we have the following teams ahead of us at the moment:

Titans 9-0
Jets 7-3
Steelers 6-3
Broncos 6-4
Patriots 6-4
Dolphins 6-4
Ravens 6-4
Colts 6-4
Bills 5-4
Chargers 4-5
Jaguars 4-5
Browns 3-6
Texans 3-7
Raiders 2-8
Bengals 1-8-1

It appears that our main barriers are the Patriots, Dolphins, Ravens, and Colts. We need all of those teams to win no more than 1 game for the rest of the season, or maybe 2 if we get a tiebreaker. The challenge is that I suspect that the Patriots and Dolphins play each other at least one more time, so we may already be more or less locked out of one spot. I think our hope is for the four division leaders to win out, along with either the Patriots or Dolphins, while the other of those two teams, plus the Colts and Ravens, win no more than 1, as long as the Bills win no more than 2, the Chargers and Jaguars no more than 3 (with the Chargers losing to us), the Browns and Texans no more than 4, the Raiders no more than 5 (losing to us), and the Bengals also 5.

So from here on out, we need to definitely root against the Colts and Ravens, and every other team in the AFC pretty much, except the Titans, Jets, and Steelers.

Guru
11-16-2008, 06:13 PM
ROFL

kstater
11-16-2008, 06:13 PM
LMAO

Marcellus
11-16-2008, 06:14 PM
:clap::clap::clap:ROFLROFLROFL

milkman
11-16-2008, 06:16 PM
Print 'em.

58-4ever
11-16-2008, 06:18 PM
This thread sure has a link-clicking title.

mikeyis4dcats.
11-16-2008, 06:19 PM
that looks like a great assessment of our situation.

REP.

Agent V
11-16-2008, 06:21 PM
One of Carl's press lackeys was probably ready to write this until you satirized the idea.

cdcox
11-16-2008, 06:26 PM
If the Chiefs win the rest of their games and the Colts and Ravens lost the rest of theirs, we would still have less than 1% chance of making a wild card.

notorious
11-16-2008, 06:29 PM
So you are saying theres a chance.......


YES!

DaFace
11-16-2008, 06:29 PM
If the Chiefs win the rest of their games and the Colts and Ravens lost the rest of theirs, we would still have less than 1% chance of making a wild card.

According to your software, we've got an 8.24% change of making the playoffs if we win out. However, that scenario means that we win the division at 7-9 rather than getting a wildcard.

cdcox
11-16-2008, 06:31 PM
According to your software, we've got an 8.24% change of making the playoffs if we win out. However, that scenario means that we win the division at 7-9 rather than getting a wildcard.

Yep. I just think it is really funny how far out of the wild card race we are, two weeks before Thanksgiving.

Count Zarth
11-16-2008, 06:32 PM
We were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs when Herm was hired. Our playoff berth in 2006 was a conspiracy.

'Hamas' Jenkins
11-16-2008, 06:34 PM
We were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs when Herm was hired. Our playoff berth in 2006 was a conspiracy.

He arose!!

Count Zarth
11-16-2008, 06:35 PM
He arose!!

Thus the heavens and the earth were completed in all their vast array. By the seventh day God had finished the work he had been doing; so on the seventh day he rested from all his work. And God blessed the seventh day and made it holy, because on it he rested from all the work of creating that he had done.

Guru
11-16-2008, 06:37 PM
We were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs when Herm was hired. Our playoff berth in 2006 was a conspiracy.Yeah, because we didn't back into that at all. Right Herm?ROFL:shake:

That still cracks me up.

Count Zarth
11-16-2008, 06:43 PM
Yeah, because we didn't back into that at all. Right Herm?ROFL:shake:

That still cracks me up.

It was a conspiracy. Shanahan didn't feel like losing another playoff game to the Colts, the other team that lost was tired, I think. Carl exchanged sexual favors with Del Rio for our win over the Jaguars.

Conspiracy.

KC_Connection
11-16-2008, 06:44 PM
To the 'ship. I believe.

Buehler445
11-16-2008, 06:50 PM
What's rediculous is that we are 1-9 and we are not eliminated. The AFC is weird this year.

Rain Man
11-16-2008, 06:57 PM
Update: ideally, we'd like a New England win over Miami next week, because we play Miami later in the year and we can get a tiebreaker over them with a win. The challenge is that Miami-Buffalo game, which one of them will win. Perhaps if Miami wins it and then loses out, that's best because we'll still have the tiebreaker on them.

This makes it very important that Buffalo, Indianapolis, and Baltimore all lose out. Cincinnati thus becomes a key to our season, because they play both the Ravens and the Colts.

This one is going to be a nailbiter. If we hadn't beat Denver, I think we would've been mathematically eliminated.

Patriots' remaining schedule:

12 Nov 23 NE @ MIA Dolphin Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 706 (706) 121 (NE)
157 (MIA)
13 Nov 30 PIT @ NE Gillette Stadium 4:15 PM Tickets CBS 713 (713) 126 (PIT)
121 (NE)
14 Dec 07 NE @ SEA Qwest Field 8:15 PM Tickets NBC

15 Dec 14 NE @ OAK McAfee Coliseum 4:15 PM Tickets CBS 716 (716)

16 Dec 21 ARI @ NE Gillette Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets FOX 708 (708)

17 Dec 28 NE @ BUF Ralph Wilson Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 706 (706)


Dolphins' Remaining Schedule

12 Nov 23 NE @ MIA Dolphin Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 706 (706) 121 (NE)
157 (MIA)
13 Nov 30 MIA @ STL Edward Jones Dome 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 707 (707) 127 (MIA)
117 (STL)
14 Dec 07 MIA @ BUF Rogers Centre 4:05 PM Tickets CBS 714 (714)

15 Dec 14 SF @ MIA Dolphin Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets FOX 713 (713)

16 Dec 21 MIA @ KC Arrowhead Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 705 (705)

17 Dec 28 MIA @ NYJ Giants Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 709 (709)

Bills' Remaining Schedule

Wk Date Game Stadium Time (ET) Tickets Network DIRECTV (HD) SIRIUS Westwood One
11 Nov 17 CLE @ BUF Ralph Wilson Stadium 8:30 PM Tickets ESPN 206 (206) 127 (CLV)
126 (BUF) Radio
12 Nov 23 BUF @ KC Arrowhead Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 705 (705) 122 (BUF)
144 (KC)
13 Nov 30 SF @ BUF Ralph Wilson Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets FOX 708 (708) 91 (SF)
129 (BUF)
14 Dec 07 MIA @ BUF Rogers Centre 4:05 PM Tickets CBS 714 (714)

15 Dec 14 BUF @ NYJ Giants Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 708 (708)

16 Dec 21 BUF @ DEN Invesco Field at Mile High 4:05 PM Tickets CBS 715 (715)

17 Dec 28 NE @ BUF Ralph Wilson Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 706 (706)

Ravens' Remaining Schedule

12 Nov 23 PHI @ BAL M&T Bank Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets FOX 709 (709) 130 (PHI)
107 (BAL)
13 Nov 30 BAL @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 705 (705) 125 (BAL)
107 (CIN)
14 Dec 07 WAS @ BAL M&T Bank Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets FOX 708 (708)

15 Dec 14 PIT @ BAL M&T Bank Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 704 (704)

16 Dec 20 BAL @ DAL Texas Stadium 8:15 PM Tickets NFL NETWORK 212 (212)

17 Dec 28 JAC @ BAL M&T Bank Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 707 (707)

Colts' Remaining Schedule

12 Nov 23 IND @ SD Qualcomm Stadium 8:15 PM Tickets NBC 127 (IND)
126 (SD) Radio
13 Nov 30 IND @ CLE Cleveland Browns Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 704 (704) 123 (IND)
147 (CLV)
14 Dec 07 CIN @ IND Lucas Oil Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 706 (706)

15 Dec 14 DET @ IND Lucas Oil Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets FOX 711 (711)

16 Dec 18 IND @ JAC Jacksonville Municipal Stadium 8:15 PM Tickets NFL NETWORK 212 (212)

17 Dec 28 TEN @ IND Lucas Oil Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 705 (705)

Rain Man
11-16-2008, 06:59 PM
If the Chiefs win the rest of their games and the Colts and Ravens lost the rest of theirs, we would still have less than 1% chance of making a wild card.


Yeah, winning the division definitely seems like an easier road.

Bwana
11-16-2008, 06:59 PM
ROFL

cabletech94
11-16-2008, 07:00 PM
best thread, EVER!!!!!!

cdcox
11-16-2008, 07:03 PM
Update: ideally, we'd like a New England win over Miami next week, because we play Miami later in the year and we can get a tiebreaker over them with a win. The challenge is that Miami-Buffalo game, which one of them will win. Perhaps if Miami wins it and then loses out, that's best because we'll still have the tiebreaker on them.

This makes it very important that Buffalo, Indianapolis, and Baltimore all lose out. Cincinnati thus becomes a key to our season, because they play both the Ravens and the Colts.

This one is going to be a nailbiter. If we hadn't beat Denver, I think we would've been mathematically eliminated.




Now we are talking. If all of these games break exactly like you describe, and the Chiefs win out, our odds of getting a wild-card spot soar to almost 11%.

dj56dt58
11-16-2008, 07:05 PM
had we won these last 4 close games....

chris
11-16-2008, 07:06 PM
Okay, we're 1-9 right now, so we need a few things to break our way to get into the playoffs.

First, let's talk about winning the division.

We've got Denver at 6-4, San Diego at 4-5, and Oakland at 2-8. Right now, San Diego and Denver both have tiebreakers on us, and we've got the tiebreaker on Denver.

We need to finish 7-9 for the most part, other than possibly tying with Denver at 6-10 and winning a second-level tiebreaker. So we need to win out, and Denver needs to lose to at least 5 of the 6 remaining games on their schedule, and San Diego needs to lose at 5 of their remaining 7, and Oakland would have to go no better than 4-2 in their next six.

The bottom line is that we need to win all of our remaining divisional games or we're probably out.

Now, how about the wild card?

While four of these teams will win their divisions (likely winners in bold), we have the following teams ahead of us at the moment:

Titans 9-0
Jets 7-3
Steelers 6-3
Broncos 6-4
Patriots 6-4
Dolphins 6-4
Ravens 6-4
Colts 6-4
Bills 5-4
Chargers 4-5
Jaguars 4-5
Browns 3-6
Texans 3-7
Raiders 2-8
Bengals 1-8-1

It appears that our main barriers are the Patriots, Dolphins, Ravens, and Colts. We need all of those teams to win no more than 1 game for the rest of the season, or maybe 2 if we get a tiebreaker. The chellenge is that I suspect that the Patriots and Dolphins play each other at least one more time, so we may already be more or less locked out of one spot. I think our hope is for the four division leaders to win out, along with either the Patriots or Dolphins, while the other of those two teams, plus the Colts and Ravens, win no more than 1, as long as the Bills win no more than 2, the Chargers and Jaguars no more than 3 (with the Chargers losing to us), the Browns and Texans no more than 4, the Raiders no more than 5 (losing to us), and the Bengals also 5.

So from here on out, we need to definitely root against the Colts and Ravens, and every other team in the AFC pretty much, except the Titans, Jets, and Steelers.


Brilliant! Absolutely Brilliant!

Well Done!

chiefs1111
11-16-2008, 07:06 PM
I didn't think we would even have a playoff picture....

Rain Man
11-16-2008, 07:07 PM
Now we are talking. If all of these games break exactly like you describe, and the Chiefs win out, our odds of getting a playoff spot soar to almost 11%.


A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. Once we get to this point, I'm confident that the ol' Herm magic will kick in. Probably a few miracles at Meadowlands and stuff.

cdcox
11-16-2008, 07:08 PM
I wonder if this is what Clark meant last January when he said we had to be in the playoff race late in the season for Herm to keep his job.

Rain Man
11-16-2008, 07:18 PM
I bet so. We're heading into Week 11 and still fighting for the division. Frankly, this is more than I expected out of Herm.

StcChief
11-16-2008, 08:01 PM
Homer says. "yes we can" .... but Carl/Herm say "no we can't"

gblowfish
11-16-2008, 08:10 PM
Playoffs?

PLAYOFFS?????

Toad
11-16-2008, 08:16 PM
Rain Man = most entertaining poster on this board. Thanks for the jocularity.

shaneo69
11-16-2008, 08:18 PM
Okay, we're 1-9 right now, so we need a few things to break our way to get into the playoffs.

This might be the funniest sentence I've ever read on a BB.

whoman69
11-16-2008, 08:55 PM
If Herm can pull off this miracle, bigger than the one he pulled in 2006, he deserves coach of the year.






























I'm not holding my breath.

ROYC75
11-16-2008, 10:06 PM
Thanks for the laugh, Kevin.

KCwolf
11-16-2008, 11:38 PM
Kick Ass Thread ...... well done.

chiefs1111
11-17-2008, 12:00 AM
I wonder if this is what Clark meant last January when he said we had to be in the playoff race late in the season for Herm to keep his job.

Probably.....

CrazyPhuD
11-17-2008, 12:11 AM
Dude quit bogarting and pass that shit!

PHOG
11-17-2008, 05:38 AM
:spock:

:hmmm:


ROFLROFL

Old Dog
11-17-2008, 06:55 AM
Nice work

King_Chief_Fan
11-17-2008, 06:57 AM
I expect Carl to show those possibilities to Clark..."see Clark, we are still in the playoff picture in week 10 of this season. Herm is doing great, agree?"

cmh6476
11-17-2008, 08:02 AM
two weeks ago, guys I were watching the game with me kept saying, "now if we win and denver loses..."

:rolleyes:

mlyonsd
11-17-2008, 08:04 AM
Rain Man hasn't lost his burst.

BroncoBuff
11-21-2008, 01:29 PM
We're laughing at this thread on the OrangeMane .... ROFL

talastan
11-21-2008, 01:35 PM
Yep our play is defintely off!

HemiEd
11-21-2008, 01:49 PM
ROFL

ROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFL

Best rainman post ever.

Thig Lyfe
11-21-2008, 01:50 PM
¡NOSOTROS PODEMOS!

beach tribe
11-21-2008, 01:54 PM
Hey, all we have to do is make the tournament, and you never know what can happen after that.

Anubis_Zyklon
11-21-2008, 02:06 PM
Okay, we're 1-9 right now, so we need a few things to break our way to get into the playoffs.

First, let's talk about winning the division.

We've got Denver at 6-4, San Diego at 4-5, and Oakland at 2-8. Right now, San Diego and Denver both have tiebreakers on us, and we've got the tiebreaker on Denver.

We need to finish 7-9 for the most part, other than possibly tying with Denver at 6-10 and winning a second-level tiebreaker. So we need to win out, and Denver needs to lose to at least 5 of the 6 remaining games on their schedule, and San Diego needs to lose at 5 of their remaining 7, and Oakland would have to go no better than 4-2 in their next six.

The bottom line is that we need to win all of our remaining divisional games or we're probably out.

Now, how about the wild card?

While four of these teams will win their divisions (likely winners in bold), we have the following teams ahead of us at the moment:

Titans 9-0
Jets 7-3
Steelers 6-3
Broncos 6-4
Patriots 6-4
Dolphins 6-4
Ravens 6-4
Colts 6-4
Bills 5-4
Chargers 4-5
Jaguars 4-5
Browns 3-6
Texans 3-7
Raiders 2-8
Bengals 1-8-1

It appears that our main barriers are the Patriots, Dolphins, Ravens, and Colts. We need all of those teams to win no more than 1 game for the rest of the season, or maybe 2 if we get a tiebreaker. The challenge is that I suspect that the Patriots and Dolphins play each other at least one more time, so we may already be more or less locked out of one spot. I think our hope is for the four division leaders to win out, along with either the Patriots or Dolphins, while the other of those two teams, plus the Colts and Ravens, win no more than 1, as long as the Bills win no more than 2, the Chargers and Jaguars no more than 3 (with the Chargers losing to us), the Browns and Texans no more than 4, the Raiders no more than 5 (losing to us), and the Bengals also 5.

So from here on out, we need to definitely root against the Colts and Ravens, and every other team in the AFC pretty much, except the Titans, Jets, and Steelers.



Wow. ROFL

chiefsngop
11-21-2008, 02:18 PM
Playoffs?

PLAYOFFS?????

Damnit ! You beat me to it. This thread was begging for that clip. Rep !!

ottawa_chiefs_fan
11-21-2008, 02:52 PM
You really need to send this into one of the local papers - i would bet $ they would print it.....or fatlock will just steal it for next week's story.