DaFace

11-30-2008, 07:49 PM

This didn't turn out to be as informative as I'd hoped, but I was considering the whole "play for draft pick vs. play to win" debate and wondered how draft order relates to wins in successive seasons. So, I analyzed the 1996 to 2006 drafts and looked at the average number of wins of the teams with the top 5 picks in each draft (in terms of order - not necessarily who ended up picking there due to trades). Here are the results:

Pick Y1 Wins Y2 Wins Y1Y2 Wins

1 5.2 8.1 13.3

2 7.3 7.5 14.7

3 5.8 7.5 13.3

4 7.5 7.0 14.5

5 7.4 7.4 14.7

I know there's a lot more to it, but I'm not in the mood to look into it any further at this point. Perhaps it will yield some interesting discussion. So...discuss.

EDIT: I found a (perhaps) more informative way to look at this, so here's the revised analysis.

OK, here ya go. This revision looks at reverse rank, rather than draft order, since I could get at that fairly easily. Reverse rank = draft order for all the lower picks but gets messy with playoff teams, so the higher numbers may not be as reliable. Effectively, this is a measure of parity in the NFL, but can be used to get an idea of how well an average team will perform based on their current-year ranking.

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/2427/analysisld6.png (http://imageshack.us)

Dark green - Improved 10 or more positions

Light green - Improved 5-9 positions

White - Didn't change 5 or more points either direction

Light red - Fell 5-9 positions

Dark red - Fell 10 or more positions

Pick Y1 Wins Y2 Wins Y1Y2 Wins

1 5.2 8.1 13.3

2 7.3 7.5 14.7

3 5.8 7.5 13.3

4 7.5 7.0 14.5

5 7.4 7.4 14.7

I know there's a lot more to it, but I'm not in the mood to look into it any further at this point. Perhaps it will yield some interesting discussion. So...discuss.

EDIT: I found a (perhaps) more informative way to look at this, so here's the revised analysis.

OK, here ya go. This revision looks at reverse rank, rather than draft order, since I could get at that fairly easily. Reverse rank = draft order for all the lower picks but gets messy with playoff teams, so the higher numbers may not be as reliable. Effectively, this is a measure of parity in the NFL, but can be used to get an idea of how well an average team will perform based on their current-year ranking.

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/2427/analysisld6.png (http://imageshack.us)

Dark green - Improved 10 or more positions

Light green - Improved 5-9 positions

White - Didn't change 5 or more points either direction

Light red - Fell 5-9 positions

Dark red - Fell 10 or more positions