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cdcox
01-05-2009, 01:44 AM
Who are they? Candidates listed in order of career yardage, currently in the top 250 of all time.:

Issac Bruce - IN
Marvin Harrison - IN
Terrell Owens - IN
Randy Moss - IN
Tory Holt - Probably in, needs another good year or so
Tony Gonzolez - IN
Mushin Muhammed - sorry, out
Joey Galloway - nope
Derrick Mason - nope
Hines Ward - another SB and 2000 yards would get him in easy. Right now he's looking like Art Monk who got snubbed for years
Amani Toomer - nope
Chad Johnson - has a real chance, but need a change of venue and attitude. I'm guessing he'll fall short.
Reggie Wayne - has a real chance, but he needs another championship and prove to be the successor of MH.
Laveranues Coles - isn't going to make it.
Donald Driver - not in the driver's seat
Plaxico Burress - shot himself in the foot
Bobby Engram - no
Steve Smith - I'll say no, because I hope he makes it.
Darrell Jackson - no
Chris Chambers - no
Santana Moss - had a chance, but has fallen off the pace
Marty Booker - no
Anquian Bouldin - probably not, but has a chance of the Cards get really good
Ike Hilliard - no
Andre Johnson - has a chance
Larry Fitzgerald - I think he'll make it.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - nope.
Antonio Bryant - how is someone so talented already on their 4th team in 6 years. Won't make it.
Antonio Gates - has fallen way off Gonzo's pace. Nope.
Jason Witten - yeah, I think he does. He'll pass Gates in yardage next season.
Lee Evans - probably not.
David Patten - no
Jeremy Shockey - no

J Diddy
01-05-2009, 01:46 AM
how can you be a chiefs fan and misspell Tony Gonzalez

Kyle DeLexus
01-05-2009, 01:48 AM
i agree with everything except Plax shot himself in the right thigh not the foot

Mecca
01-05-2009, 01:49 AM
Isn't Boldin ahead of Fitzgerald in numbers?

I know Fitz is great and all but Boldin matches him every year.

cdcox
01-05-2009, 01:49 AM
how can you be a chiefs fan and misspell Tony Gonzalez

LMAO I can't spell worth a crap. I usually call him Gonzo for that reason. Which then leads to me spelling it Gonzolez.

J Diddy
01-05-2009, 01:51 AM
i agree with everything except Plax shot himself in the right thigh not the foot


He was aiming for the foot.

cdcox
01-05-2009, 01:53 AM
Isn't Boldin ahead of Fitzgerald in numbers?

I know Fitz is great and all but Boldin matches him every year.

I went by the fact that Fitzgerald is 3 years younger, but only behind Boldin by 400 yards. Fitz has more TDs. That guy is a monster.

Looking at the numbers, Fitz has out performed Boldin the last couple years by a good amount.

cdcox
01-05-2009, 01:53 AM
i agree with everything except Plax shot himself in the right thigh not the foot

Literary license.

J Diddy
01-05-2009, 01:56 AM
What about Dwayne f-ing Bowe?


He's a lock, if he can just hold onto the ball.

beavis
01-05-2009, 01:56 AM
Isn't Boldin ahead of Fitzgerald in numbers?

I know Fitz is great and all but Boldin matches him every year.

I think they both could, but it's still pretty early to extrapolate them out that far.

cdcox
01-05-2009, 02:01 AM
What about Dwayne f-ing Bowe?


He's a lock, if he can just hold onto the ball.

I think he'd be on pace without the drops. He'd need another season and a half to crack the top 250 all time, in order to be considered on this list.

Any one know of a publicly available data base that charts drops by WR?

cdcox
01-05-2009, 02:05 AM
I think they both could, but it's still pretty early to extrapolate them out that far.

By default, some of these 20-somethings are going to make it. Right now, there just seem to be a bunch of head cases that are screwing up their chances.

Discuss Thrower
01-05-2009, 02:49 AM
Who are they? Candidates listed in order of career yardage, currently in the top 250 of all time.:

Issac Bruce - IN (Agree)
Marvin Harrison - IN (Probably)
Terrell Owens - IN (Doubt it, he needed to be on his best behavior on the Cowboys' way to the 'ship. Doesn't seem likely, given his antics this year)
Randy Moss - IN (A ring and he's 90% sure)
Tory Holt - Probably in, needs another good year or so (I guess if Bruce goes, so does Holt)
Tony Gonzolez - IN (Ring would be icing on the cake. Question isn't if he's in, is he first ballot)
Mushin Muhammed - sorry, out (Agree)
Joey Galloway - nope (sure..?)
Derrick Mason - nope (Does he have numbers? Ring?)
Hines Ward - another SB and 2000 yards would get him in easy. Right now he's looking like Art Monk who got snubbed for years
Amani Toomer - nope (yeah)
Chad Johnson - has a real chance, but need a change of venue and attitude. I'm guessing he'll fall short. (T.O. Lite)
Reggie Wayne - has a real chance, but he needs another championship and prove to be the successor of MH. (I think he has better chances than you think, the current era Colts will get major rep slurpage in the future)
Laveranues Coles - isn't going to make it. (Ring and some numbers)
Donald Driver - not in the driver's seat (yeah)
Plaxico Burress - shot himself in the foot (why the horrible, incorrect pun?)
Bobby Engram - no (yeah)
Steve Smith - I'll say no, because I hope he makes it. (rough childhood?)
Darrell Jackson - no (who?)
Chris Chambers - no (yeah)
Santana Moss - had a chance, but has fallen off the pace (no comment)
Marty Booker - no (eh)
Anquian Bouldin - probably not, but has a chance of the Cards get really good (only if the Cards turn into next decades version of the Colts)
Ike Hilliard - no (bleh)
Andre Johnson - has a chance (Give me some Tony Gonzalez-esque stats and playing dominance, and I agree)
Larry Fitzgerald - I think he'll make it. (SEE ALSO: BOLDIN, Anquan)
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - nope. (C'mon, he's featured in a commercial)
Antonio Bryant - how is someone so talented already on their 4th team in 6 years. Won't make it. (need memory refresher)
Antonio Gates - has fallen way off Gonzo's pace. Nope. (Possibly, depending on how well da Chargers fare in this and future postseasons.)
Jason Witten - yeah, I think he does. He'll pass Gates in yardage next season. (Ring and he's in)
Lee Evans - probably not. (yup)
David Patten - no (... was he a key piece in the Pats' superbowl wins? If so, maybe)
Jeremy Shockey - fuck no (corrected)



Comments above.

POND_OF_RED
01-05-2009, 04:53 AM
Is it too early to throw Crabtree's name out there?

kcchiefsus
01-05-2009, 07:18 AM
Jeff Webb



End of story

wutamess
01-05-2009, 07:24 AM
I went by the fact that Fitzgerald is 3 years younger, but only behind Boldin by 400 yards. Fitz has more TDs. That guy is a monster.

Looking at the numbers, Fitz has out performed Boldin the last couple years by a good amount.

Boldin was hurt considerably (torn groin) last year and he missed a couple of games this year because of that vicious hit he took which fractured his sinus cavity.

Other than that he's put up HoF #'s.

Furthermore, Gates should and will be a HoF'er before Witten. He's had one off (banged up year) and people are ready to throw in the towel.

Amnorix
01-05-2009, 07:41 AM
The bar is going up, fast, for WRs to get in. The NFL has gone completely pass-happy the last 10 or so years, so historical data regarding what is "needed" to get into the HOF from the WR position is pretty much useless.

And besides, it's 6 guys per year, max, and they can't all be WRs. Look for WRs to get squeezed heavily in the future, like Monk.

Deberg_1990
01-05-2009, 08:18 AM
The bar is going up, fast, for WRs to get in. The NFL has gone completely pass-happy the last 10 or so years, so historical data regarding what is "needed" to get into the HOF from the WR position is pretty much useless.

And besides, it's 6 guys per year, max, and they can't all be WRs. Look for WRs to get squeezed heavily in the future, like Monk.


This is true. Im not even sure guys like Moss and T.O are first ballot as of now.

Neither has a ring.

blaise
01-05-2009, 08:24 AM
I think Hines Ward gets in. The writers love him. He's looked at as a throwback football player that plays hard, makes tough catches, and blocks. Especially the way the NFL HOF works. The writers get in a room and some a writer (usually a guy from the city where the player played most of his career) makes a case for the player. I think someone could make an impassioned plea for Ward that goes beyond just his numbers. They could sell that he's what football is all about, etc. That he cared about winning games, not just getting touches.

Amnorix
01-05-2009, 08:26 AM
This is true. Im not even sure guys like Moss and T.O are first ballot as of now.

Neither has a ring.

I think both get in. A ring or two might make either first ballot. They might already be first ballot, as they have some years to go.

But yeah, that list is waaaay long, and some guys aren't even worth thinking about.

Amnorix
01-05-2009, 08:27 AM
I think Hines Ward gets in. The writers love him. He's looked at as a throwback football player that plays hard, makes tough catches, and blocks. Especially the way the NFL HOF works. The writers get in a room and some a writer (usually a guy from the city where the player played most of his career) makes a case for the player. I think someone could make an impassioned plea for Ward that goes beyond just his numbers. They could sell that he's what football is all about, etc. That he cared about winning games, not just getting touches.

I tend to agree. He is great with intangibles like blocking, etc. It goes beyond the numbers with him.

ohiobronco2
01-05-2009, 08:31 AM
Where is Brandon Marshall? :D

Amnorix
01-05-2009, 08:36 AM
Where's Deion Branch on your list? He's as talented as Reggie Wayne, according to Hootie...

Demonpenz
01-05-2009, 08:52 AM
I like to think of the player having numbers and being domination. Hines Ward has kicked the shit out of the other team, blocking, throwing and catching balls, T.O. and Moss have dominated. Marvin Harrison is the other name that comes to mind.

Demonpenz
01-05-2009, 08:57 AM
it's tough to remember guys that don't mouth off all the time if issac bruce gets in where does rod smith stand

Ebolapox
01-05-2009, 09:09 AM
I like to think of the player having numbers and being domination. Hines Ward has kicked the shit out of the other team, blocking, throwing and catching balls, T.O. and Moss have dominated. Marvin Harrison is the other name that comes to mind.
is 'being domination' anything like 'being rebellion?' cause, it doesn't appear that hines likes to spend that much time in the strip club (ain't no sin going to the strip club--it's merely being rebellion)

Demonpenz
01-05-2009, 09:11 AM
is 'being domination' anything like 'being rebellion?' cause, it doesn't appear that hines likes to spend that much time in the strip club (ain't no sin going to the strip club--it's merely being rebellion)

hinez is beign dominated

Simba
01-05-2009, 09:27 AM
He was aiming for the foot.

He was just a few feet off.

Buck
01-05-2009, 09:29 AM
I GUARANTEE YOU that Antonio Gates makes it.

He has another 5-7 Good Years ahead of him.

He'll be #1 or #2 in every TE Category by the time hes done, count on it.

Chiefnj2
01-05-2009, 10:17 AM
Definite: Bruce, Harrison, Owens, Moss, Gonzalez (TE).
Likely: Holt
Should get in, but might not: Ward.

Everyone else needs a few more years of productivity.

Brock
01-05-2009, 10:21 AM
I GUARANTEE YOU that Antonio Gates makes it.

He has another 5-7 Good Years ahead of him.

He'll be #1 or #2 in every TE Category by the time hes done, count on it.

He's injury prone and will become more so.

ArrowheadHawk
01-05-2009, 10:40 AM
I GUARANTEE YOU that Antonio Gates makes it.

He has another 5-7 Good Years ahead of him.

He'll be #1 or #2 in every TE Category by the time hes done, count on it.

Homer alert!

Messier
01-05-2009, 10:41 AM
I GUARANTEE YOU that Antonio Gates makes it.

He has another 5-7 Good Years ahead of him.

He'll be #1 or #2 in every TE Category by the time hes done, count on it.

No, Gates will not be in the hall of fame. He's 28 now, I don't think he'll be in the league 7 years from now, and I don't think he'll be playing at a high level 5 years from now.

Micjones
01-05-2009, 10:53 AM
Wide Receiver is one of the toughest positions to get to the Hall from.
Ocho Cinco has a great shot. He just needs to stay healthy another 3-4 years.

cdcox
01-05-2009, 10:54 AM
I GUARANTEE YOU that Antonio Gates makes it.

He has another 5-7 Good Years ahead of him.

He'll be #1 or #2 in every TE Category by the time hes done, count on it.

I doubt seriously he'll catch Tony. He is almost 2000 yards behind when you plot yardage vs age (which is probably a more accurate projection for career statistics than seasons).

jAZ
01-05-2009, 11:05 AM
Plaxico Burress - shot himself in the foot

Admit it. You did all that work, just so you could post that... didn't you.

blaise
01-05-2009, 11:07 AM
Wide Receiver is one of the toughest positions to get to the Hall from.
Ocho Cinco has a great shot. He just needs to stay healthy another 3-4 years.

I'd say he has an ok chance but I wouldn't call it great. In three years he'll maybe be in the Andre Reed, Irving Fryar, Henry Ellard area and I don't think any of those are yet in- though they might be. Reed probably will be. The difference is Chad Johnson is a giant turd. Nobody's going to want to vote for him unless it's a no brainer.

Buck
01-05-2009, 11:21 AM
I doubt seriously he'll catch Tony. He is almost 2000 yards behind when you plot yardage vs age (which is probably a more accurate projection for career statistics than seasons).

I doubt he'll catch him. Thats why I said #1 or #2 in all TE Stats

Right now he has 400 Receptions for 5066 Yards and 51 TDs.

Assuming that he has 5 more productive years (Lets say 60 Receptions / 800 Yards / 7 TDs per season) He'll end up with 700 Receptions, 9000 Yards, and 85 TDs.

Those are HOF worthy numbers for a TE, and I'm even being a little conservative with those numbers.

Receptions Ranks for TE's
1. TG - 916
2. Shannon Sharpe - 815
3. Ozzie Newsome - 662

Gates - 400

Yardage Ranks for TE's
1. TG - 10,940
2. Sharpe - 10,060
3. Newsome - 7980

Gates - 5066

TD Ranks for TE's
1. TG - 76
2. Sharpe - 62
3. Gates - 51

So maybe he'll only get to the top 3 in Receptions and Yards, but he should get to at least #2 in TDs, if not #1 someday.

I think that hes going to make the HOF for sure.

blaise
01-05-2009, 11:37 AM
I doubt Gates has 5 more productive years.

Garcia Bronco
01-05-2009, 11:46 AM
Issac Bruce - Maybe
Marvin Harrison - IN
Terrell Owens - Nope
Randy Moss - Nope
Tory Holt - Nope
Tony Gonzolez - Yes
Mushin Muhammed - Nope
Joey Galloway - nope
Derrick Mason - nope
Hines Ward - Nope
Amani Toomer - nope
Chad Johnson - Nope
Reggie Wayne - Nope
Laveranues Coles - Nope
Donald Driver - Nope
Plaxico Burress - Nope
Bobby Engram - no
Steve Smith - Nope
Darrell Jackson - no
Chris Chambers - no
Santana Moss - Nope
Marty Booker - no
Anquian Bouldin - Nope
Ike Hilliard - no
Andre Johnson - Maybe
Larry Fitzgerald - Maybe
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - nope.
Antonio Bryant - Nope
Antonio Gates - Nope.
Jason Witten - Nope
Lee Evans - Nope
David Patten - nope
Jeremy Shockey - nope

unothadeal
01-05-2009, 11:48 AM
Issac Bruce - Maybe
Marvin Harrison - IN
Terrell Owens - Nope
Randy Moss - Nope
Tory Holt - Nope
Tony Gonzolez - Yes
Mushin Muhammed - Nope
Joey Galloway - nope
Derrick Mason - nope
Hines Ward - Nope
Amani Toomer - nope
Chad Johnson - Nope
Reggie Wayne - Nope
Laveranues Coles - Nope
Donald Driver - Nope
Plaxico Burress - Nope
Bobby Engram - no
Steve Smith - Nope
Darrell Jackson - no
Chris Chambers - no
Santana Moss - Nope
Marty Booker - no
Anquian Bouldin - Nope
Ike Hilliard - no
Andre Johnson - Maybe
Larry Fitzgerald - Maybe
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - nope.
Antonio Bryant - Nope
Antonio Gates - Nope.
Jason Witten - Nope
Lee Evans - Nope
David Patten - nope
Jeremy Shockey - nope

Is there a difference between your "no's" and "nope's"?

blaise
01-05-2009, 11:50 AM
I know people don't like Randy Moss and T.O. but they're getting in. There's no doubt. Especially Moss. He has his faults but he's going in for sure and if you don't think so you're high.

Garcia Bronco
01-05-2009, 11:59 AM
Is there a difference between your "no's" and "nope's"? Nope

Garcia Bronco
01-05-2009, 12:02 PM
I know people don't like Randy Moss and T.O. but they're getting in. There's no doubt. Especially Moss. He has his faults but he's going in for sure and if you don't think so you're high.

I don't think either one makes it in without a Super Bowl or passing Jerry Rice.

SPATCH
01-05-2009, 12:05 PM
I don't think either one makes it in without a Super Bowl or passing Jerry Rice.

i agree with your list with one exception... out of TO and Randy Moss, i think one of them finds a way in

Chiefnj2
01-05-2009, 12:07 PM
I don't think either one makes it in without a Super Bowl or passing Jerry Rice.

TO is 5th all time in yards receiving, sixth in receptions and 2nd in TDs. He gets in.

Garcia Bronco
01-05-2009, 12:08 PM
i agree with your list with one exception... out of TO and Randy Moss, i think one of them finds a way in

I would put Moss ahead of TO

blaise
01-05-2009, 12:14 PM
They're both getting in and it's no real doubt. The writers may make them wait a year to needle them due to personal grudges but they're both going in.

Buck
01-05-2009, 12:46 PM
I doubt Gates has 5 more productive years.

Maybe, we'll see.

Gates has already passed many HOF TE's in #s, including Kellen Winslow.

Count Zarth
01-05-2009, 12:50 PM
Boldin is a guy who doesn't rely on great speed so he could conceivably be very good late into his 30s.

Count Zarth
01-05-2009, 12:53 PM
I GUARANTEE YOU that Antonio Gates makes it.

He has another 5-7 Good Years ahead of him.

He'll be #1 or #2 in every TE Category by the time hes done, count on it.

Playing with Rivers will give him an advantage.

He's his favorite target every night.

cdcox
01-05-2009, 12:54 PM
Maybe, we'll see.

Gates has already passed many HOF TE's in #s, including Kellen Winslow.

You can't compare stats against past generations, because the game has changed so much. Gates could very well be the 3rd best TE of his generation, behind Gonzo and Witten. Witten is two years younger than Gates and only 150 yards behind. A ring would probably push Gates over, but it's not a done deal.

Micjones
01-05-2009, 01:00 PM
I'd say he has an ok chance but I wouldn't call it great. In three years he'll maybe be in the Andre Reed, Irving Fryar, Henry Ellard area and I don't think any of those are yet in- though they might be. Reed probably will be. The difference is Chad Johnson is a giant turd. Nobody's going to want to vote for him unless it's a no brainer.

In another 3-4 seasons I'm guessing he'll amass another 3000+ receiving yards and 21 TD's.

That'll be:
12,000 Receiving Yards and 75 TD's.

That's a pretty compelling Hall of Fame argument I think.

MagicHef
01-05-2009, 01:15 PM
Receptions Ranks for TE's
1. TG - 916
2. Shannon Sharpe - 815
3. Ozzie Newsome - 662

Gates - 400

Yardage Ranks for TE's
1. TG - 10,940
2. Sharpe - 10,060
3. Newsome - 7980

Gates - 5066

TD Ranks for TE's
1. TG - 76
2. Sharpe - 62
3. Gates - 51


Given these stats, and the fact that he was #1 in all these categories when he retired, how long does it take Sharpe to get in?

noa
01-05-2009, 01:32 PM
I don't even think there's a question about Moss getting in.

Demonpenz
01-05-2009, 01:42 PM
Moss is in, it's sad he doesn't block better, T.O has had some monster blocks in his carrer. Moss seems afraid to go over the middle, he always just runs deep and puts that hand up like he is open.

Hydrae
01-05-2009, 01:58 PM
I think he'd be on pace without the drops. He'd need another season and a half to crack the top 250 all time, in order to be considered on this list.

Any one know of a publicly available data base that charts drops by WR?

This only appears to be for this season and I can not vouch for accuracy either.

http://sports.iwon.com/nfl/stats/league/passesdropped.html

cdcox
01-05-2009, 03:53 PM
This only appears to be for this season and I can not vouch for accuracy either.

http://sports.iwon.com/nfl/stats/league/passesdropped.html

Thanks.

If you project all of those drops as catches and assume the average gain for those plays are the same as his other receptions, he would have gained an additional 155 yards this season. Probably more if you consider that drives would have been sustained longer giving him more opportunities and the QBs would have had more confidence to send more balls his way. That would have given him 1177 yards for the season.

Basileus777
01-05-2009, 03:56 PM
Gates is already being outpaced by the younger Jason Witten. And he's too old to have any realistic chance at Tony's records. Witten has a better chance at the HOF, though we will have to see how not having TO drawing constant doubles affects his numbers.

OnTheWarpath58
01-05-2009, 04:07 PM
In another 3-4 seasons I'm guessing he'll amass another 3000+ receiving yards and 21 TD's.

That'll be:
12,000 Receiving Yards and 75 TD's.

That's a pretty compelling Hall of Fame argument I think.

Then Holt is already in.

Don't understand why people hate on Torry Holt.

Pro Bowler 7/10 seasons, 12,660 yards, 74 TD's and a ring. And he's only 32. If STL gets their shit together, he could easily end up over 15,000 yards and 90-100 TD's - maybe much more.

He's got much better numbers than Michael Irvin, and with 2 less seasons. Just two fewer rings. Not sure how you hold that against a guy.

ChiefsCountry
01-05-2009, 04:17 PM
Wait till Bowe gets to play with Stafford/Sanchez in our 10's dyntasy years.

Buck
01-05-2009, 04:21 PM
Gates is already being outpaced by the younger Jason Witten. And he's too old to have any realistic chance at Tony's records. Witten has a better chance at the HOF, though we will have to see how not having TO drawing constant doubles affects his numbers.

One of the reasons that Vincent Jackson has started to shine is because Gates is constantly Double Covered.

Theres not many TE's in the league that will be spied by a Corner the entire game, but Gates is one of them.

Demonpenz
01-05-2009, 04:42 PM
One of the reasons that Vincent Jackson has started to shine is because Gates is constantly Double Covered.

Theres not many TE's in the league that will be spied by a Corner the entire game, but Gates is one of them.

there aren't alot of #1 wr that can be covered by one person

Micjones
01-05-2009, 04:46 PM
Then Holt is already in.

Don't understand why people hate on Torry Holt.

Pro Bowler 7/10 seasons, 12,660 yards, 74 TD's and a ring. And he's only 32. If STL gets their shit together, he could easily end up over 15,000 yards and 90-100 TD's - maybe much more.

He's got much better numbers than Michael Irvin, and with 2 less seasons. Just two fewer rings. Not sure how you hold that against a guy.

I think Holt's definitely bound for Canton.
The numbers are there and he's got Superbowl bling.

Demonpenz
01-05-2009, 04:48 PM
dale murphy for hall of fame in baseball!

Rain Man
01-05-2009, 06:06 PM
My order of likelihood:

The 1st-Year Guys

Marvin Harrison - Nearly 15,000 yards, 85 catches a year, darling team, ring, 128 TDs, and 0.62 TDs per game. He's in.

Tony Gonzalez - Stats aren't as good as WRs, but 11,000 yards, 76 catches per year, 76 touchdowns, 0.40 TDs per game, and 58 yards per game set the mark for tight ends. He's kind of a different animal on this list. He's in, but may wait a year without a ring or a big-play rep.

The 2nd, 3rd, 4th Year Guys

Terrell Owens - He's an idiot, but he produces. Averages 73 catches per year, and 75 yards per game. Scores at a rate of 0.67 TDs per game, second only to Moss. No ring, but obviously a big factor in Philly getting there. Playing for multiple teams will hurt him. I think he gets in after 2 or 3 or 4 years and makes Moss wait since we can't stomach both of them getting in. He beats Moss by blocking.

Torry Holt - I think he's a better candidate than Bruce, assuming he has the same career length. He has the ring, has played for one team, and averages 87 catches per season and 80 yards per game. Holt and Bruce will likely slow each other down as they split votes, but I think Holt may beat either Moss or Owens, probably Moss. He scores 0.46 TDs per game, which is high other than the company at this end of the scale. It'll take him 3 or 4 years.

Randy Moss - He's a punk, but he produces. Averages 77 catches per year, and 78 yards per game. More importantly, he produces 15.7 yards per catch, which is about one yard better than all of the other top candidates, and he scores at a prodigious rate - 0.77 TDs per game. The only other two that are close are Harrison and Owens, and he's double all other candidates. If he blocked and cared, he'd beat all of them but maybe Harrison. As it is, the Raider years and walking through routes will make him wait 3 or 4 years before getting in. (That will be a great speech.)

They'll Get In, But They'll Wait

Isaac Bruce - I think Holt is a better candidate, which will slow Bruce down. His productivity is lower than Holt's - 67 catches per year and 71 yards per game, and 0.38 TDs per game. He's got 1000+ catches and 15,000 receiving yards, though, and a ring, so he'll eventually get in. If he didn't have Holt to contend with, I think he'd beat Moss.

Hines Ward - 73 catches per year, great blocking, a ring. Produces 57 yards per game, which is low, and doesn't match up well in yards per catch, but has 0.41 TDs per game, which is surprisingly high. He'll get in, but it'll take a while.

Setting aside Gonzalez for a moment, what these guys have in common are:

60+ catches per year
0.4 TDs per game
70 yards per game
A ring, or carried the team to a Super Bowl loss

I won't worry about longevity for a moment, which helps some mediocre players and may carry one or two of them across the threshold. However, in the following notes I'm only including people who are in the Active Top 50 in catches, yards, or TDs.


Who else fits those criteria and has played for five plus years? No one that I can find. Guys who are close are:


Catches per year (WR/TE only):

Fitzgerald - 85
Boldin - 84
Andre Johnson - 81
Chad Johnson - 77
Reggie Wayne - 72
Witten - 72
Coles - 70
Gates - 67
Mason - 66
Steve Smith - 64
Welker - 64
Cooley - 63
Houshmandzadeh - 63
Muhammad - 62
Shockey - 60


Yards Per game

Anquan Boldin 81
Larry Fitzgerald 79
Marques Colston 75
Andre Johnson 74
Chad Johnson 74
Steve Smith 69

TDs per game

Larry Fitzgerald 0.58
Antonio Gates 0.53
Marques Colston 0.5
Greg Jennings 0.5
Braylon Edwards 0.44
Anquan Boldin 0.42
Reggie Wayne 0.41
Chad Johnson 0.41
Chris Chambers 0.41
Lee Evans 0.4


This tells me that Chad is on pace, but I think he's flaming out. Fitzgerald and Boldin are on a great pace, but need to keep it up. Andre Johnson has 0.34 TDs per game and meets the other criteria. Steve Smith produces 0.33 TDs per game and meets the other criteria, so he may have a shot, too. These guys all need a ring or two, or a lot more time.

Gates and Witten are averaging over 50 yards per game and Gates has the TD numbers. Neither is producing at Gonzalez's rates of catches and yards per game. Several more years of production and a ring might get them in if they keep up the pace.

cdcox
01-05-2009, 06:34 PM
The bar is going up, fast, for WRs to get in. The NFL has gone completely pass-happy the last 10 or so years, so historical data regarding what is "needed" to get into the HOF from the WR position is pretty much useless.

And besides, it's 6 guys per year, max, and they can't all be WRs. Look for WRs to get squeezed heavily in the future, like Monk.

I agree with you to some extent, but what I think is going to happen is that you'll see more WRs going in and the RBs will get squeezed. Guys like Payton, Sanders, and E. Smith that get 80% of their team's carries over a 8-10 year period are a dying breed. That's just my snap judgment. Now that we've received Rain Man's astute analysis on WR, we'll move on to the RBs and see if my gut feel holds up.

Rausch
01-05-2009, 06:41 PM
They're both getting in and it's no real doubt. The writers may make them wait a year to needle them due to personal grudges but they're both going in.

Look at Rickey Watters.

Forgotten now.

Amazing talent, won a super bowl, but was an ass. His production is definitely HOF worthy...

blaise
01-06-2009, 07:05 AM
Look at Rickey Watters.

Forgotten now.

Amazing talent, won a super bowl, but was an ass. His production is definitely HOF worthy...

That's debatable. The 10,000 yard plateau for a RB isn't what it used to be. His stats as a RB aren't as impressive as T.O.'s or Moss's as WRs. Randy Moss made teams change their whole defensive scheme. There was a period of years when he was the most dominant WR, maybe even the most dominant offensive player, in the league. Marvin Harrison is a great wideout and deserving of the HOF but I would wager every GM outside of Indy, if given the choice between Moss and Harrison in their prime, would take Moss.

MagicHef
01-06-2009, 08:06 AM
Setting aside Gonzalez for a moment, what these guys have in common are:

60+ catches per year
0.4 TDs per game
70 yards per game
A ring, or carried the team to a Super Bowl loss

He's not active, but what about Rod Smith?

71 Catches per year
0.44 TDs per game
72 yards per game
2 rings

unothadeal
01-06-2009, 10:18 PM
Are you going to make more of these threads?

DT58HOF
01-06-2009, 10:27 PM
Terrell Owens will not make it!
only about 5 of those guys on the list will make it in.

Thig Lyfe
01-06-2009, 10:30 PM
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Demonpenz
01-06-2009, 11:13 PM
I don't remember anyone before moss changing the game like this. "We need a guy who can go get it" The fact that it doesn't matter what route he runs he can just out jump, out athlete changed the way you look at WR. Moss seemed to start the route too where you run a fly then you can underthrow him on purpose and have the guy come back and get the ball