View Full Version : Scouts take on players who pan out in relation to where they are picked

02-06-2009, 04:51 AM
Scouts Inc. marked each first-round player as having exceeded, met or failed to meet expectations. The categories were broad enough to head off debate in most cases, yet powerful enough to produce useful information when harnessed collectively.

Overall, 169 of the 254 first-round selections (66.5 percent) have met or exceeded expectations. Twenty-four percent exceeded expectations. One-third failed to measure up.

Receivers failed to meet expectations 52.4 percent of the time, surpassing quarterbacks (47.6 percent) for the highest rate of failure.

Based on the findings, teams holding the seventh through 10th overall choices should exercise extreme caution before drafting a receiver in those slots. Teams hoping to find quality defensive backs with the 21st through 32nd choices should also beware. And any team looking for a defensive end with the 16th through 20th choices might want to say a prayer first.

For while making wise use of first-round draft selections does not ensure success, repeatedly botching those choices essentially guarantees failure.

That's where you can really get hammered," Carolina Panthers coach John Fox said. "Especially if it's a real early pick, because you're paying that guy like a future Hall of Famer and he hasn't played a down yet."

A look at what the past eight drafts can tell teams as they balance needs with value heading into the 2008 draft:

The safest positions
1. Interior offensive line
2. Linebacker
3. Tight end
4. Defensive tackle, offensive tackle and running back.

The high-risk positions
1. Receiver.
2. Quarterback

2. Defensive backs taken 26th to 32nd overall
Five of the 10 failed to meet expectations. Only Oakland's Nnamdi Asomugha, drafted 31st overall in 2003, has exceeded expectations within that range since 2000. Disappointments included Jamar Fletcher, Mike Rumph, Andre Woolfolk, Derrick Gibson and Sammy Davis.

The 21st through 25th overall spots also produced five disappointments in NFL secondaries. Eleven defensive backs have been drafted in this range, with two becoming Pro Bowl players: cornerback Nate Clements and safety Ed Reed.

3. Defensive ends taken 16th to 20th overall
Four of the eight have failed to meet expectations. None has exceeded expectations. Bad luck might be to blame. Jarvis Moss, David Pollack and Kenechi Udeze experienced injuries or health issues early in their careers.

4. Quarterbacks taken among the top 10 overall
Ten of the 40 players drafted among the top five since 2000 have exceeded expectations. None was a quarterback. Four of the nine quarterbacks drafted that early have yet to meet expectations.

Byron Leftwich and Matt Leinart are the only quarterbacks drafted sixth through 10th overall since 2000. Both have fallen below expectations set by Scouts Inc.

5. Receivers drafted 26th to 32nd
Four of the eight receivers drafted in this range have failed to meet expectations. Only one -- the Colts' Wayne -- exceeded them.

Five safe havens

1. Defensive backs drafted fifth overall and 11th through 15th
Chargers cornerback Quentin Jammer has justified his No. 5 overall selection with solid play for San Diego.NFL teams drafted three defensive backs among the top five -- Sean Taylor, Terence Newman and Quentin Jammer -- and all three justified the investment. Each was the fifth player chosen in his draft class. Taylor was named to the most recent Pro Bowl posthumously.

Expectations were met or exceeded by all five defensive backs drafted 11th to 15th: Marcus Trufant, Darrelle Revis, Thomas Davis, Tye Hill and Deltha O'Neal. Trufant picked off seven passes last season. O'Neal disappointed in Denver, but he has two seasons with at least nine picks.

2. Linebackers drafted ninth to 12th overall
NFL teams found six linebackers in this range without making a bad choice. Brian Urlacher, Patrick Willis and Shawne Merriman exceeded expectations. Ernie Sims, Dan Morgan and Jonathan Vilma have played well enough to justify their draft status, Scouts Inc. determined.

3. Running backs drafted 19th to 25th overall
NFL teams found five running backs in this range, and all met or exceeded expectations: Steven Jackson, Deuce McAllister, Willis McGahee, Laurence Maroney and Shaun Alexander.

4. Offensive tackles drafted third to 18th overall
Six of 12 drafted in this range exceeded expectations. Only two -- Mike Williams and Kenyatta Walker -- failed to measure up.

Joe Thomas, Chris Samuels, Bryant McKinnie, Jammal Brown, Shawn Andrews and Jeff Backus exceeded expectations.

5. Guards and centers drafted in the second half of the round
NFL teams have drafted nine of them in the first round, all after the 16th pick, and none has disappointed.

Steve Hutchinson, Nick Mangold and Logan Mankins have exceeded expectations. Hutchinson is a perennial Pro Bowl choice. The others have become solid or promising starters.

Personally I feel the OT one is misleading....Shawn Andrews has played his entire career at guard and most people think Jeff Backus blows.

'Hamas' Jenkins
02-06-2009, 01:54 PM
Jeff Backus does blow, Shawn Andrews is not a tackle, Phillip Rivers was taken fourth, Eli first, Carson Palmer first.

It's not Carson Palmer's fault a guy blew out his knee on a dirty play. How can you say the other two haven't exceeded expectations?

Chris Samuels is a decent OT, but nowhere near worth the value where he was selected, nor was McKinnie.

Maroney has also been a huge disappointment, and Jammer is just a decent CB. Tye Hill has been a disappoinment, Thomas Davis is a fucking linebacker now, and Trufant isn't good.

That is a horrible, horrible article.

02-06-2009, 02:00 PM
The safest positions
1. Interior offensive line
2. Linebacker
3. Tight end

These positions are safe because they're routinely undervalued and the players aren't chosen high. Lower expectations are more easily met.

Saul Good
02-06-2009, 07:04 PM
Scouts Inc. is clearly piss poor at statistics. The sample size is way too small to break things down into "Receivers drafted 26th to 32nd" and "Linebackers drafted ninth to 12th overall." These numbers are not statistically significant.

They might as well say that red-headed quarterbacks taken in the top 5 have a 100% chance of success, but 50% will be set back by injuries to their knees.

02-08-2009, 02:46 AM
Also, since 2000? Hell, that draft alone produced Tim Couch, Cade McNown, and Akili Smith. That's 3 QB busts in that range in ONE fucking draft. That throws off the success rate, which is probably higher

02-08-2009, 10:22 PM
Also, since 2000? Hell, that draft alone produced Tim Couch, Cade McNown, and Akili Smith. That's 3 QB busts in that range in ONE ****ing draft. That throws off the success rate, which is probably higher

That was 1999.