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BucEyedPea
03-28-2009, 07:10 AM
Hmmm? There are fabulous sales everywhere during this deflation. It's not called a correction for nothing. Things were getting too pricey and the market spoke back: I won't pay anymore.

Not only that, but savings are climbing....and was months ago. Sure it's not all corrected yet, but it will do so on it's own.

We don't need the govt to save us with a massive stimulus plan which is really just an excuse for politicians to fund their pet ideological projects fearmongering the matter. Or bailing out cronies on Wall Street who effed up and banks who are dictated to by govt.

That is all. :D

headsnap
03-28-2009, 08:21 AM
"Never let a crisis go to waste".

speak24
03-28-2009, 09:06 AM
This is a forced fake recession and the companies are taking advantage to lay people off and cut expenses.

headsnap
03-28-2009, 09:24 AM
This is a forced fake recession and the companies are taking advantage to lay people off and cut expenses.

:spock:


this post has my Sarcasmomiter confused...

wild1
03-28-2009, 09:53 AM
Because this is all overblown. The recession was like the early 90s, it started a year or more ago, and the ship is righting itself on its own like it always would have.

jiveturkey
03-28-2009, 10:07 AM
It's pretty easy to get a table on Friday and Saturday night these days. Does that mean that my local restaurants are experiencing hella recession?

banyon
03-28-2009, 10:36 AM
The Parable of the Shopping Mall

ALEXANDER COCKBURN
Counterpunch
Monday, March 16, 2009

In town after town across America these days one can physically see the economic mantras of an entire generation turning to boarded-up wasteland before one’s eyes. Shopping malls, which changed the American landscape within the course of a generation, are dying week by week.

Take the Bayshore Mall in my own town of Eureka, northern California — a covered, pedestrian arcade opened in the 1980s, owned by the Utah-based General Growth company. Located on the edge of Humboldt Bay, though facing the opposite direction towards Highway 101, our mall was an optimistic place in the early days. People dressed up to go there. A friend of mine who opened a coffee stall, wore a tie – purchasing it from Ralph Lauren which opened an outlet. Every pretty girl in Humboldt county wanted to work there, to see and to be seen. People drove for three hours through the Yolly Bolly Wilderness all the way from Redding in the Central Valley to savor its glories. There were stylish concerts in its ample Food Court.

Today the Bayshore Mall moulders, embodying the misfortunes of General Growth – the second largest mall owner in the U.S. - whose stock trades now for 55 cents, down from $44 last May. General Growth has now ousted its CEO, John Bucksbaum, (who is related to Ann Bucksbaum, wife of the New York Times’s Thomas Friedman, world’s wealthiest pundit. In 2006, the value of General Growth Properties was estimated at about $2.7 billion. Last October 8, Business Week headlined an article “General Growth Properties Staggers Under Debt Load” (of $27 billion).

Some major retailers, like Ralph Lauren’s Polo, have long since fled from Bayshore Mall. Walk east along one of the arcades and you come to a wall of plywood, behind which lies the desolation that was Mervyn’s, a clothing chain which has now filed for bankruptcy. The little stores nearby have a somber mien, like people compelled to live in the chill shadow of a funeral home. The food court, serviced by six or seven fast food businesses, is becoming a sanctuary for the poor who sit in the warmth with modest snacks and while away the hours.



Across the past 40 years some 200 cities built pedestrian malls. Today, only 30 remain. Drive around any town and one can see strip malls in similar decline, their parking lots nearly empty, boarded stores in the retail frontage like a mouth losing its teeth, as the lights of Circuit City go out and Linen ‘n Things, Zales, Ann Taylor and Sharper Image retrench or collapse entirely.

Out of crisis comes opportunity, one that’s been discussed for some years by movements such as the New Urbanists and crusaders for the refashioning of the American urban landscape such as James Howard Kunstler, author of The Geography of Nowhere. A mall can be razed to the ground, like the Belle Promenade, on the west bank of the Mississippi in New Orleans. Eureka’s too poor a town to do that. But a mall can be refashioned into a more congenial quartier, one blessed with easier parking.

In the same way that coastal cities like Boston finally realized the asset of nineteenth-century quaysides with their warehouses and customs depots, today’s failed or failing malls can be reconfigured, converted to mixed use, with residential housing, public spaces and constructive social uses. In the Bayshore even now I see groups of the mentally ill being brought along for an outing in a place that’s sheltered, still physically safe, and equipped with bathrooms, and plenty of space with chairs or benches where they can relax.

In many towns one can imagine that energetic councils and resourceful financing could offer the reeling mall operators terms and take the properties off their hands, reconfiguring the malls as social assets.

On the larger economic front, similar reconstructive engineering for the public good is vital, however adamantly Wall Street, Timothy Geithner, Larry Summmers and President Obama may proclaim earnestly that the architecture of “free enterprise” capitalism must be preserved. We’re at that stage that Thurman Arnold captured so wittily in his 1937 book, The Folklore of Capitalism. Arnold, from Laramie, Wyoming, was installed as head of the Justice Department’s Anti-Trust Division when FDR swerved to the left amid the slump of 1937. No greater foe of the corporate cartel than Arnold ever worked in government service in Washington.

In an early chapter, “The Folklore of 1937”, Arnold describes with vivid humor the tenacity with which supporters of untrammeled “private enterprise” held to beliefs whose operating principles had engendered the Great Depression. He likened it to the University of Paris insisting in the seventeenth century that bleeding was still the cure for malaria, even though quinine, promoted by the Jesuits in Peru, seemed to offer a more effective remedy.

But, Arnold wrote, “The medieval physician could see no profit in saving a man’s body if thereby he lost his soul. Nor did he think that any temporary physical relief could ever be worth the violation of the fundamental principles of medicine. The remedy for fever was the art of bleeding to rid the body of those noxious vapors and humors in the blood which were the root of illness. Of course, patients sickened and died in the process, but they were dying for a medical principle…”

Is there a better description for the Republicans opposing the stimulus plan on principle, or Geithner stoutly proclaiming his zeal to preserve the banking system as presently constituted?

Opportunity is there, to be seized from the jaws of capitalism’s shattering reverses. This is a chance richer than the opportunity offered and annulled in the mid-70s. Circumstances will in all likelihood push Obama’s government to the left, just as they did FDR when orthodoxy failed. The left should not be shy about pressing the challenge out of some misguided notion of preserving a polite progressive consensus.

From the malls to the commanding heights of the economy, let the Reconquest begin
http://www.counterpunch.org/cockburn03132009.html

banyon
03-28-2009, 10:37 AM
Malls are DYING all over the place. You're welcome to visit the Mall of murder, er Memphis to see how much they're thriving. Oh wait it was demolished a few years back.

If anything is a microcosm for how you substitute anecdotal and deviant analysis to buttress your failed theory, this thread is it.

jAZ
03-28-2009, 10:51 AM
http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/retail.html

Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* from January 2009 and 9.8 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 32.3 percent (±1.7%) from February 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 23.5 percent (±2.1%) from last year.

L.A. Chieffan
03-28-2009, 10:58 AM
my stupid mall is still open, and they never have any cool hats.

Douche Baggins
03-28-2009, 11:03 AM
Because this is America. People are full of shit. We'll be prosperous and fat until we get nuked.

petegz28
03-28-2009, 11:06 AM
Malls are DYING all over the place. You're welcome to visit the Mall of murder, er Memphis to see how much they're thriving. Oh wait it was demolished a few years back.

If anything is a microcosm for how you substitute anecdotal and deviant analysis to buttress your failed theory, this thread is it.

Have to agree here.

BucEyedPea
03-28-2009, 11:25 AM
'Eh, banyon's case is BS. There was even a report on tv by some pundits analyzing the economy about Malls being full including a country western musician who works out of Tennessee. One was CNN too. Maybe Memphis is a regional anomaly due to other factors. Afterall, there's no such thing as aggregate demand. Areas vary. Always. They have their own factors.

In fact, when I was in Memphis during the boom of the 90's it looked like a crappy depressed area. Meanwhile, northerners are visiting Florida in droves with the restaurants and cafes full and traffic jams in the middle of afternoon. Many of them are Q-Tips but there's plenty of college kids here on Spring Break too.

jAZ
03-28-2009, 11:29 AM
'Eh, banyon's case is BS. ... Maybe Memphis is a regional anomaly due to other factors. Afterall, there's no such thing as aggregate demand. Areas vary. Always. They have their own factors.
That would make your claim in the thread subject BS as well.

BucEyedPea
03-28-2009, 11:38 AM
The Westfield Group ( owner of several malls here) and owner of 118 shopping centers have low vacancy rates worldwide. They must be doing something right. Probably doing better marketing utilizing demographics. Their leasing is at 97.5 percent. Westfield as well as South Sound malls are not only healthy but new retailers are moving in.

I read Ann Taylor was closing some stores in the country but they didn't close the 3 of them in my area. Some retailers have decide to not use malls anymore period.

It's usually the marginal more poorly run business that get eliminated first...propping them up with artificial monetarization and stimulus has a tendency to do that. That's why Keynesian booms are artificial. The bust is when things are correcting that artificiality.


Second story from a google search...have to download the /pdf. So much for that anecdotal data.
http://www.google.com/search?q=South+Sound+Malls+are+full&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

BucEyedPea
03-28-2009, 11:40 AM
I'm heading out to the mall now to get some quality stuff cheap and on sale! ;)

Dave Lane
03-28-2009, 11:42 AM
Hmmm? There are fabulous sales everywhere during this deflation. It's not called a correction for nothing. Things were getting too pricey and the market spoke back: I won't pay anymore.

Not only that, but savings are climbing....and was months ago. Sure it's not all corrected yet, but it will do so on it's own.

We don't need the govt to save us with a massive stimulus plan which is really just an excuse for politicians to fund their pet ideological projects fearmongering the matter. Or bailing out cronies on Wall Street who effed up and banks who are dictated to by govt.

That is all. :D

You really are a one trick pony aren't you?? ;)

banyon
03-28-2009, 11:47 AM
The Westfield Group ( owner of several malls here) and owner of 118 shopping centers have low vacancy rates worldwide. They must be doing something right. Probably doing better marketing utilizing demographics. Their leasing is at 97.5 percent. Westfield as well as South Sound malls are not only healthy but new retailers are moving in.

I read Ann Taylor was closing some stores in the country but they didn't close the 3 of them in my area. Some retailers have decide to not use malls anymore period.

It's usually the marginal more poorly run business that get eliminated first...propping them up with artificial monetarization and stimulus has a tendency to do that. That's why Keynesian booms are artificial. The bust is when things are correcting that artificiality.


Second story from a google search...have to download the /pdf. So much for that anecdotal data.
http://www.google.com/search?q=South+Sound+Malls+are+full&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

Wow, you really don't understand sample size at all do you? Now you're talking about one company.

BucEyedPea
03-28-2009, 11:47 AM
You really are a one trick pony aren't you?? ;)

Now, now Dave let's not project. I post more of a variety than you even if economics is my main bag.

Here's a link to my archive of threads. http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/search.php?searchid=269257

They simply follow the current hot topics which is the economy right now. As you go back earlier you'll see it's the WoT, Bush when those where the hot issues and Enviro issues. In the past few months when you open this forum it's almost all economic's topics. Because that's what's going on.

You only come here, to bash religion and in particular Christianity. And you're only going after me now, because I am anti-Obama's economic policies. I've also criticised Bush for the same policies when he used them. I've always been anti-socialist. I've also said I will criticize him where I disagree with him. I have not criticized him on FP nor on Iran.


Just the facts.

banyon
03-28-2009, 11:51 AM
U.S. Shopping Mall Vacancies Reach 10-Year High as Stores Fail
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azgge9HHWzZE&refer=home

By Hui-yong Yu

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Vacancies at U.S. malls and shopping centers approached 10-year highs in the fourth quarter, and are set to rise further as declining retail sales put more stores out of business, research firm Reis Inc. said.

Regional mall vacancies rose to 7.1 percent last quarter from 6.6 percent in the third quarter. It was the highest vacancy rate since Reis began tracking regional malls in 2000, as well as the largest quarter-to-quarter jump in vacancies, according to New York-based Reis.

More than a dozen retailers, including Circuit City Stores Inc., Linens ‘n Things Inc. and Sharper Image Corp., filed for bankruptcy protection in 2008 as the credit squeeze and recession drained sales. Vacancies will rise further until the job market recovers, housing prices stabilize and lending resumes, restoring consumer confidence, said Reis.

“So much of consumer spending depends on the wealth effect,” said Victor Calanog, director of research at Reis. “Unfortunately, all three conditions are still in flux. Even when they stabilize we often observe anywhere from a 12- to 24- month lag until commercial retail properties begin benefiting.”

At neighborhood and community shopping centers, the vacancy rate rose to 8.9 percent from 8.4 percent in the third quarter, the highest since Reis began publishing quarterly data in 1999.

Shopping Centers Suffer

Asking rents at malls fell 0.2 percent from the previous quarter and rose 0.3 percent from a year earlier. Mall vacancies have climbed 2 percentage points from the 5.1 percent in 2005’s second quarter, the low for the last business cycle, said Reis.

Asking rents at shopping centers, which are typically anchored by a grocery store, fell 0.3 percent from the prior quarter and rose 0.4 percent from a year earlier. Effective rents fell 0.9 percent from the prior quarter and were down 1.1 percent from a year earlier, according to Reis.

At neighborhood shopping centers, tenants vacated more space than they leased, causing so-called net absorption to shrink by 4.1 million square feet, according to Reis.

“Neighborhood and community centers coming online encountered tremendous difficulties in pre-leasing retail space,” Calanog said. “This has been prevalent all throughout 2008, with new projects coming online at around 50 percent vacant, compared to the 25 percent to 30 percent vacancy levels for new projects in previous years.”

More Closing

Retailers will close 12,000 stores in 2009, after the worst holiday sales in 40 years, according to Howard Davidowitz, chairman of retail consulting and investment-banking firm Davidowitz & Associates Inc. in New York.

The Bloomberg REIT Shopping Center Index of 20 companies led by Kimco Realty Corp. lost a third of its value during the past year, about the same as the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Kimco, the largest U.S. owner of community shopping centers, cut its earnings forecast for 2008, citing the credit crisis.

The Bloomberg REIT Regional Mall Index of seven mall owners fell 57 percent. The index was dragged down by General Growth Properties Inc., the country’s second-largest regional mall landlord, whose shares tumbled 96 percent. The company took on debt for acquisitions and couldn’t refinance once the credit crisis took hold.

Simon Property Group Inc., the biggest U.S. mall owner, lost 435,000 square feet to bankruptcies last year through Sept. 30, up from 50,000 square feet in the same period a year earlier, Chief Executive Officer David Simon said in November. Simon’s multiyear leases protect the company to some extent from monthly changes in consumer spending, Simon said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Hui-yong Yu in Seattle at hyu@bloomberg.net

BucEyedPea
03-28-2009, 11:51 AM
While I'm at the mall, I get you some Holy Water Dave.

Hydrae
03-28-2009, 11:54 AM
What I take from this thread is that malls on the coasts are getting hammered with loss of sales but those in the heartland are still doing ok. Makes one wonder how much cost of living plays into these results. :hmmm:

petegz28
03-28-2009, 11:56 AM
That would make your claim in the thread subject BS as well.

This

BucEyedPea
03-28-2009, 12:01 PM
What I take from this thread is that malls on the coasts are getting hammered with loss of sales but those in the heartland are still doing ok. Makes one wonder how much cost of living plays into these results. :hmmm:

I'm on the coast...but it's the Gulf Coast of an eastern coastal state. If y'a know what I mean.

I hear things are booming in DC too. Real Estate is moving too. In fact home sales are climbing although modestly. Ayup! There's a repair cycle happening bit by bit.

wild1
03-28-2009, 12:27 PM
U.S. Shopping Mall Vacancies Reach 10-Year High as Stores Fail
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there's an overabundance of retail space in a model that is out of vogue and a relic from an era before the neighborhood shopping center and before electronic commerce. probably would be happening anyway.

HonestChieffan
03-28-2009, 12:42 PM
Because this is all overblown. The recession was like the early 90s, it started a year or more ago, and the ship is righting itself on its own like it always would have.

Much truth here.

HonestChieffan
03-28-2009, 12:50 PM
"More than a dozen retailers, including Circuit City Stores Inc., Linens ‘n Things Inc. and Sharper Image Corp., filed for bankruptcy protection in 2008..." from Banyons post of doom...

Linens n things would be broke regardless of the recession with Bed Bath and Beyond killing them in the marketplace. A bad execyution of a good idea vs a great execution of same idea means you go broke.

Circuit City....freaking disaster. You can find better selections, better locations, and lower prices and they have been dropping like a stone for three years.

Sharper Image...now theres a business built on people buying crap they dont need and charging a huge sum for it. It worked as a business as a mailorder but then they moved into high rent locations, built inventory and cost and wonder why they are on the ropes?

Malls in general....going down the tubes as new shopping centers are built in new areas that dont feel like its 1973. Orange Julius and Karmelkorn shops next door to dank little nasty retailers selling second rate stuff is not a business model that works in 2009.

Calcountry
03-28-2009, 12:51 PM
It's pretty easy to get a table on Friday and Saturday night these days. Does that mean that my local restaurants are experiencing hella recession?But don't you find yourself ordering less appetizers and drinks?

The table is filled, but the restaurants average ticket is down.

Calcountry
03-28-2009, 12:53 PM
"More than a dozen retailers, including Circuit City Stores Inc., Linens ‘n Things Inc. and Sharper Image Corp., filed for bankruptcy protection in 2008..." from Banyons post of doom...

Linens n things would be broke regardless of the recession with Bed Bath and Beyond killing them in the marketplace. A bad execyution of a good idea vs a great execution of same idea means you go broke.

Circuit City....freaking disaster. You can find better selections, better locations, and lower prices and they have been dropping like a stone for three years.

Sharper Image...now theres a business built on people buying crap they dont need and charging a huge sum for it. It worked as a business as a mailorder but then they moved into high rent locations, built inventory and cost and wonder why they are on the ropes?

Malls in general....going down the tubes as new shopping centers are built in new areas that dont feel like its 1973. Orange Julius and Karmelkorn shops next door to dank little nasty retailers selling second rate stuff is not a business model that works in 2009.They should implode all the old malls and turn them into community farms

HonestChieffan
03-28-2009, 12:55 PM
They should implode all the old malls and turn them into community farms

Bannister Mall in KC. Indian Springs Mall in KCK, Ward Parkway Shopping Center.......there is an opportunity for a good mall imploder business. Don't know where folks will get Cinnabuns and Karmelkorn though.

Calcountry
03-28-2009, 12:59 PM
U.S. Shopping Mall Vacancies Reach 10-Year High as Stores Fail
Share | Email | Print | A A A

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azgge9HHWzZE&refer=home

By Hui-yong Yu

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Vacancies at U.S. malls and shopping centers approached 10-year highs in the fourth quarter, and are set to rise further as declining retail sales put more stores out of business, research firm Reis Inc. said.

Regional mall vacancies rose to 7.1 percent last quarter from 6.6 percent in the third quarter. It was the highest vacancy rate since Reis began tracking regional malls in 2000, as well as the largest quarter-to-quarter jump in vacancies, according to New York-based Reis.

More than a dozen retailers, including Circuit City Stores Inc., Linens ‘n Things Inc. and Sharper Image Corp., filed for bankruptcy protection in 2008 as the credit squeeze and recession drained sales. Vacancies will rise further until the job market recovers, housing prices stabilize and lending resumes, restoring consumer confidence, said Reis.

“So much of consumer spending depends on the wealth effect,” said Victor Calanog, director of research at Reis. “Unfortunately, all three conditions are still in flux. Even when they stabilize we often observe anywhere from a 12- to 24- month lag until commercial retail properties begin benefiting.”

At neighborhood and community shopping centers, the vacancy rate rose to 8.9 percent from 8.4 percent in the third quarter, the highest since Reis began publishing quarterly data in 1999.

Shopping Centers Suffer

Asking rents at malls fell 0.2 percent from the previous quarter and rose 0.3 percent from a year earlier. Mall vacancies have climbed 2 percentage points from the 5.1 percent in 2005’s second quarter, the low for the last business cycle, said Reis.

Asking rents at shopping centers, which are typically anchored by a grocery store, fell 0.3 percent from the prior quarter and rose 0.4 percent from a year earlier. Effective rents fell 0.9 percent from the prior quarter and were down 1.1 percent from a year earlier, according to Reis.

At neighborhood shopping centers, tenants vacated more space than they leased, causing so-called net absorption to shrink by 4.1 million square feet, according to Reis.

“Neighborhood and community centers coming online encountered tremendous difficulties in pre-leasing retail space,” Calanog said. “This has been prevalent all throughout 2008, with new projects coming online at around 50 percent vacant, compared to the 25 percent to 30 percent vacancy levels for new projects in previous years.”

More Closing

Retailers will close 12,000 stores in 2009, after the worst holiday sales in 40 years, according to Howard Davidowitz, chairman of retail consulting and investment-banking firm Davidowitz & Associates Inc. in New York.

The Bloomberg REIT Shopping Center Index of 20 companies led by Kimco Realty Corp. lost a third of its value during the past year, about the same as the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Kimco, the largest U.S. owner of community shopping centers, cut its earnings forecast for 2008, citing the credit crisis.

The Bloomberg REIT Regional Mall Index of seven mall owners fell 57 percent. The index was dragged down by General Growth Properties Inc., the country’s second-largest regional mall landlord, whose shares tumbled 96 percent. The company took on debt for acquisitions and couldn’t refinance once the credit crisis took hold.

Simon Property Group Inc., the biggest U.S. mall owner, lost 435,000 square feet to bankruptcies last year through Sept. 30, up from 50,000 square feet in the same period a year earlier, Chief Executive Officer David Simon said in November. Simon’s multiyear leases protect the company to some extent from monthly changes in consumer spending, Simon said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Hui-yong Yu in Seattle at hyu@bloomberg.net

Obama's gonna change it, Obama's gonna change it, Obama's gonna change, the world.

KC native
03-28-2009, 01:00 PM
I'm on the coast...but it's the Gulf Coast of an eastern coastal state. If y'a know what I mean.

I hear things are booming in DC too. Real Estate is moving too. In fact home sales are climbing although modestly. Ayup! There's a repair cycle happening bit by bit.

Home sales are not climbing. You really should do some homework prior to posting your nonsense.

New Home Sales Fell 41% in February 2009
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By Barry Ritholtz - March 26th, 2009, 9:30AM

WSJ: Sales of new homes rose in February for the first time in seven months, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, another sign that the housing market is thawing

Bloomberg: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in February from a record low as plummeting prices and cheaper mortgage rates lured some buyers. Sales increased 4.7 percent to an annual pace of 337,000 . . .

Marketwatch: The U.S. housing sector continues to see signs of improvement. The latest government data showed new home sales climbed in February for the first time in seven months, sending shares of home-building companies soaring.

>

A parade of the mathematically innumerate business writers (and even worse headline writers!) continue to misread data. The latest evidence? New Home Sales.

After incorrectly reporting the Existing Home Sales, the mainstream media misread the Census department report of New Homes.

No, New Home Sales data did not improve. In fact, they were not only not positive, they were actually horrific. The year over year number was a terrible down 41%. Sales from this same period a year ago have nearly been halved.

Why did the media report this as positive? If you only read the headline number, you saw a positive datapoint: February was plus 4.7% over January.

To get the the facts, you need to read below the headline. In the present case, it wasn’t the seasonality factor that was confusing, it was the “90-percent confidence intervals” — or as it is more commonly known, the margin of error.

From the Census Bureau:

Sales of new one-family houses in February 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 337,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.7 percent (±18.3%)* above the revised January rate of 322,000, but is 41.1 percent (±7.9%) below the February 2008 estimate of 572,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2009 was $200,900; the average sales price was $251,000. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 330,000. This represents a supply of 12.2 months at the current sales rate.

Note that the month over month data at 4.7% — plus or minus 18.3% — is statistically insignificant. (i.e., meaningless). The reported data does not inform us if sales improved month-over-month or not. It is a range, from down -13.6% to plus 23%. Since “zero” is part of that range, we can draw no conclusion. As the Census Department itself notes, “the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease.”

The data does however, tell us that the year-over-year sales fell 41.1% plus or minus 7.9% gives us a range of -49% to -33.2%. The entire range is negative, therefore we can conclude sales fell year-over-year.

These are facts. This is data. This is how you interpret it. Most of the MSM reports (WSJ, Marketwatch, Bloomberg) were simply wrong.

Not nuanced, not shaded, but 2+2=5 wrong.

Let me remind that many of these folks incorrectly misinformed you that Housing wasn’t getting worse in 2006, 2007 and 2008 — just as Home sales and prices went into an historic freefall. Now, these same folks are misinforming you that Housing has turned around and is improving. That is simply unsupported by the data.

(And don’t even ask about television — they simply read the wrong news. Here is a life lesson for you: Never believe news people who read teleprompters. They have no idea what they are doing, they are reading what someone else wrote. When it comes to data interpretation, they are quite literally clueless. Rely on news readers to your personal financial detriment).

The bottom line: Learn to interpret data correctly. Avoid using the people who cannot do so as primary news sources.

>

New Home Sales Annual Sales Rate, Seasonal Adjusted

Chart via Census Department

>

Previously:
A Closer Look at New Home Sales Data (October 2006)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/10/a-closer-look-at-new-home-sales-data/

April New Home Sales - Revisited (November 2005)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/11/new-home-sales-data-dont-rely-on-it-either/

New Home Sales Fall 42% (May 2008)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/05/new-home-sales-fall-42/

The Annual Existing Home Sales MSM Errata
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By Barry Ritholtz - March 24th, 2009, 7:10AM

Redux: No, Existing Home Sales were not good

Its March, and that means its time for our favorite annual mainstream media math mess up: The February Existing Home Sales errata.

As previously discussed, Home Sales are highly seasonal. Anyone with kids tries to avoid disrupting their school year when possible. And so, the ideal time to move into a new town (and school district) is prior to the start of the new school year in September. That factor, along with other annual holiday activity, explains the annual rhythm of the existing home sales.

January is the worst month of the year for sales. From that low point, sales improve gradually for each of the next 6 months. They plateau over July and August, and then began heading down until December. This occurs year after year.

For those people who actually want to understand the state of the Housing market, you have two options that avoid the cyclical seasonality: 1) You use year over year data. This removes the seasonal patterns by comparing January to January, June to June, etc. And 2) Compare non seasonably adjusted monthly data over the course of multiple years.

Since the market peaked in 2005, we have been in a strong downtrend. Prices have fallen about 27% nationally, and units sales are off about 30% from the highs of over 7 million annual sales in 20056.

There was one bright spot in the Housing data: Housing is now falling at a decelerating level. While year over year prices are still dropping double digits, unit sales are falling at a slower pace. Housing sales are getting worse, just not quite as quickly. The second derivative improvement suggests that we may be nearing a point where the unit sales may stop dropping. But that does not mean we are at a bottom yet, and it certainly does not imply a turnaround is at hand.

Let’s take a quick look at two mainstream articles that have gotten this wrong: Today’s Investor Business Daily, and last years Wall Street Journal.

IBD:

Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly rebounded in February from January’s record low, the latest evidence that housing — and the overall economy — may finally be hitting a bottom.

I count 3 major errors in that sentence: “unexpectedly,” “housing may finally be hitting a bottom” and “the overall economy [may finally be hitting a bottom}”

The data does not show that Housing is hitting a bottom, it only shows that it is falling at a slower pace. Just because the parachute has deployed does not mean you are on terra firma.

As to the overall economy bottoming, not only is there no evidence of that, but the leading indicators (ECRI, LEI, etc) all suggest the opposite: The economy is likely to get worse before it gets better. IBD is proferring an opinion, not facts — and its an unsupported opinion at that.

Last, here’s why the word “unexpectedly” is wrong: The people who follow housing closely expected an increase in February. It happens every year, as the chart I showed yesterday revealed. And the March data will improve over February data, and April over March, and May over April and June over May. That is the seasonal pattern, and it is only unexpected by those people who are unfamiliar with the data, and simply do not know better.

This especially applies to the NAR, who have been not just wrong, but wildly wrong the entire way down.

Let me also point out that the economists on “Wall Street who expected a dip” are the same folks that did not understand the credit driven housing boom, missed the peak in sales and prices, and failed to see the housing collapse. They have been generally clueless about the entire economy for the past 5 years. That they were surprised by the same data they have consistently misunderstood and misinterpreted should be unexpected by no one at this point.

Last year, the WSJ had a front page article that got the seasonal data totally wrong: Wave of Foreclosures Drives Prices Lower, Lures Buyers:

A glut of foreclosed homes of historic proportions is starting to drive down U.S. home prices faster as lenders put more properties on the market and buyers show signs of interest . . . On Monday, new data suggested that pressures like these are starting to drive prices low enough to attract some buyers back into the market. Sales of previously occupied homes jumped 2.9% in February from the month before, the National Association of Realtors said, the first increase since July.

No, the 2.9% was nothing special. It was the regular February increase from January.

~~~

What is so amazing about this is that we see the same errors every year. And given how wildly wrong the usual pundits have been on this issue, one would hope the MSM would be a touch more circumspect.

Dave Lane
03-28-2009, 01:02 PM
Now, now Dave let's not project. I post more of a variety than you even if economics is my main bag.

You only come here, to bash religion and in particular Christianity. And you're only going after me now, because I am anti-Obama's economic policies. I've also criticised Bush for the same policies when he used them. I've always been anti-socialist. I've also said I will criticize him where I disagree with him. I have not criticized him on FP nor on Iran.

Actually I have plenty of posts on politics and many many on football, probably 3/4 at least. Before the election I was much more active politically so to say I'm a one trick pony is definitely projection in reverse. And as far as going after you, you have made a very hard turn to the right or maybe up or down. Your federal government run like its the local PTA and having to have bake sales to raise revenue is very weird to say the least.

The federal government has a large role to play in the country like it or not. Government is inherently good not evil. Sometimes it goes too far and needs to be reined in. Sometimes it needs more of a role. Overall it has made possible a expansion in technology and trade and commerce that is outstanding. I disagreed with most of Bushs policies but I knew in the long run the pendulum would eventually swing the other way.

Obama is the same thing. This too will change. If he succeeds great but it will still change. The thing that so many of us on here seem to really lack any vision about is that we are all in this together. When the world is all about me and my "stuff", it lessens our society as a whole. When the poor succeed it is great for the rich as they will prosper. The reverse is not necessarily true. If the government gave everyone that made under $20,000 a bonus $5,000 the rich would have all of it in 30 days anyway.

I believe Reagan had it wrong. "Trickle Up" economics is a great stimulator and would enrich the entire country and the rich even more.

KC native
03-28-2009, 01:08 PM
Because this is all overblown. The recession was like the early 90s, it started a year or more ago, and the ship is righting itself on its own like it always would have.

Wrong. This is the most severe recession since the great depression. We're already a year into this and can reasonably expect it to last until the end of the year.

Q4 Nominal GDP: Worst Since 1958
Email this post Print this post
By Barry Ritholtz - January 31st, 2009, 9:00AM

Yesterday, I was busy dealing with two big projects: John Mauldin’s newsletter, and interviewing new publishers for the next book (no, it ain’t gonna be McGraw Hill again).

This kept me away from my favorite wonk activity, dissecting the latest government data dump. Or as it is known on college campuses across the land, Intro to Creative Writing & Poetry.

Barron’s Randall Forsyth takes a swipe at the numbers:

“The litany of woes was capped by the government’s first stab at estimating the fourth quarter’s gross domestic product, which was shown to have contracted at a 3.8% annual rate, after the usual adjustment for inflation and seasonal factors. Though much worse than the 0.5% decline in the third quarter, it was less severe than the 5%-6% drop forecast by economists, if that offers any solace.

The skid was tempered by an unexpected rise in inventories, which added some 1.3 percentage points to the headline GDP number, according to Steven Wieting, economist at Citigroup. Excluding inventories, real final sales shrank at a sharp 5.1% annual pace, about as expected and much more severe than the 1.3% contraction in the preceding quarter. That points to destocking in this quarter and the quarters ahead as production is cut to bring it in line with demand.

But falling prices also made the real decline appear less severe than it was. Nominal GDP collapsed at a 4.1% annual rate in the latest quarter, the sharpest drop in a half a century. And it would have been worse were it not for Uncle Sam’s spending; private final sales plunged by 6.5% while government spending expanded at a 1.9% pace despite contracting state and local expenditures.

“Once again, real GDP growth appears to be a poor metric of the recession,” write John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros, economists at RDQ Economics. Consumer spending plunged at a 3.5% annual rate in the current quarter, residential investment collapsed at a 23.6% rate and real business spending plummeted 19.1%. “There was no demand from the private sector in the fourth quarter,” they conclude. And the same was true globally. Exports fell at a 20% annual rate as the recession spread abroad.

While real GDP was the weakest since 1982, nominal GDP was the worst since 1958. The difference is falling prices, which makes the real measure seem less dire. But Ryding and De Quadros contend that the unemployment rate is a better indicator of the economy than GDP. As the tally of the layoffs rises, that paints a still-drearier picture. (emphasis added)

I’ve had a pretty reliable gut on the real economy versus official economic data — its not fat, its actually filled with proprietary economic sensors — and this is only part of the story. My Spidey-sense tells me there is much more to this number than the usual soon-to-be-revised downwards preliminary data.

I’ll hunt about to see if there is anything beyond the usual funny stuff going on . . .

>

Source:
What’s So Super?
RANDALL W. FORSYTH
Barron’s JANUARY 31, 2009
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123335939695435159.html

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
8:30 A.M. EST, FRIDAY, JANUARY 30, 2009
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp

KC native
03-28-2009, 01:34 PM
And more to show that we're not finished with this recession.

Growth in U.S. Consumer Spending Slowed in February (Update2)
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Shobhana Chandra

March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Growth in spending by American consumers slowed in February and incomes fell more than forecast, reflecting the toll of a deteriorating job market.

Purchases advanced 0.2 percent after climbing 1 percent in January, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Much of the February gain was due to an increase in prices, leaving so-called real spending with a decline for the month.

Taken together with the jump in spending in January, today’s report offers a picture of an economy that remains in recession, while the pace of the contraction has eased from the end of last year. Best Buy Co., the largest U.S. electronics retailer, yesterday reported that profit fell less than analysts forecast for the quarter ended Feb. 28.

“We’re certainly not out of the woods by any means, but perhaps we’re seeing some signs of stabilization,” Jay Bryson, a global economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Treasuries were little changed after the report, with yields on benchmark 10-year notes at 2.74 percent at 8:56 a.m. in New York. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index fell 0.9 percent to 819.60.

Economists forecast spending would rise 0.2 percent, after an originally reported 0.6 percent gain the prior month, according to the median of 68 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from a decline of 0.5 percent to a 0.5 percent increase.

Incomes Drop

Incomes fell 0.2 percent, after a 0.2 percent increase in January. The survey median projected a 0.1 percent decrease.

The figures make it that much more critical that the Obama administration’s initiatives to create jobs and Federal Reserve measures to revive credit take hold quickly to prevent the recession from deepening.

Today’s report showed inflation accelerated. The price gauge tied to spending patterns rose 1 percent from February 2008, up from a 0.8 percent 12-month gain in January. The Fed’s preferred gauge of prices, which excludes food and fuel, climbed 1.8 percent, more than forecast.

Adjusted for inflation, spending dropped 0.2 percent, following a 0.7 percent gain the prior month.

Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, decreased 0.1 percent, after rising 1.6 percent the previous month. Adjusted for inflation, disposable income dropped 0.4 percent.

Durable Goods

Inflation-adjusted spending on durable goods, such as autos, furniture, and other long-lasting items, dropped 1.5 percent last month after rising 3.2 percent in January. Purchases of non-durable goods and services were unchanged.

Still, the inflation-adjusted spending so far this quarter is higher than the fourth-quarter average, setting the stage for a gain after plunging late last year.

The economy shrank in the fourth quarter at a 6.3 percent annual pace, the worst performance since 1982, in what may be the depths of the recession. Consumer spending fell at a 4.3 percent rate, marking the first back-to-back declines in excess of 3 percent since records began in 1947.

“We’re seeing a minimal amount of consumption, as people are just spending on bare necessities,” Lindsey Piegza, an economic analyst at FTN Financial in New York, said before the report. “You can’t have stable consumer spending until you have stable incomes or wealth accumulation.”

Best Buy Co., the largest U.S. electronics retailer, yesterday reported profit that fell less than analysts forecast for the quarter ended Feb. 28.

“We prepared for reduced consumer spending, and we were pleased when the quarter finished stronger than it began,” Chief Executive Officer Brad Anderson said in a statement.

Carmakers General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC are still counting on government aid for survival. U.S. auto sales in February slid to the lowest rate since December 1981, led by a 53 percent plunge for Detroit-based GM.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

BucEyedPea
03-28-2009, 01:46 PM
Obama's gonna change it, Obama's gonna change it, Obama's gonna change, the world.

Malls are still VERY FULL here. It's downright crowded. Good sales everywhere though. Maybe the other's haven't lowered their prices enough.

BucEyedPea
03-28-2009, 01:56 PM
I've been back from shopping at the mall and to a nursery that was closed.

I am pleased with my purchases! I got a terrific deals:

An orange linen short blazer to match a brown linen skirt with tropical silk shirt with orange and purple flowers on a brown and tan background. Brown real leather heels, boating shoes and flat black leather loafers....very sophisticated. Yoga pants and new sports bra. Then a new mattress and paid for part of a new phone for my kid. That was pricey at $400 but she paid for most of it since she got her first job in February.

Now I just need to find some good tomato and romaine lettuce plugs and I'm all set. :D


Next week: New square shaped dinnerware and glassware and some catalog shopping for more spring clothes.

HonestChieffan
03-28-2009, 02:09 PM
I love the "recession is worst since...." posts. Then the references to all these brilliant economic minds to support said position. Doom is upon us says (insert name here who predicted the end 12-24-36 months ago)

These same said brilliant minds also said we are in a recession...and oh yea...it started a year ago and we didnt notice till now.....

Makes me wonder, will the recession end a year before they see that as well?

Hmmmm...I never liked Chicken Little.

I remember Joe Granville.

Calcountry
03-28-2009, 02:10 PM
Bannister Mall in KC. Indian Springs Mall in KCK, Ward Parkway Shopping Center.......there is an opportunity for a good mall imploder business. Don't know where folks will get Cinnabuns and Karmelkorn though.You can always get a cinnabun at the airport? :shrug:

Calcountry
03-28-2009, 02:13 PM
Actually I have plenty of posts on politics and many many on football, probably 3/4 at least. Before the election I was much more active politically so to say I'm a one trick pony is definitely projection in reverse. And as far as going after you, you have made a very hard turn to the right or maybe up or down. Your federal government run like its the local PTA and having to have bake sales to raise revenue is very weird to say the least.

The federal government has a large role to play in the country like it or not. Government is inherently good not evil. Sometimes it goes too far and needs to be reined in. Sometimes it needs more of a role. Overall it has made possible a expansion in technology and trade and commerce that is outstanding. I disagreed with most of Bushs policies but I knew in the long run the pendulum would eventually swing the other way.

Obama is the same thing. This too will change. If he succeeds great but it will still change. The thing that so many of us on here seem to really lack any vision about is that we are all in this together. When the world is all about me and my "stuff", it lessens our society as a whole. When the poor succeed it is great for the rich as they will prosper. The reverse is not necessarily true. If the government gave everyone that made under $20,000 a bonus $5,000 the rich would have all of it in 30 days anyway.

I believe Reagan had it wrong. "Trickle Up" economics is a great stimulator and would enrich the entire country and the rich even more.This whole trickle up thing is laughable. Money doesn't trickle up, it is spent. The spender gives it to a recipient, then the recipient spends it or saves it.

The problem that you trickle upsters have, is when a recipient saves enough money to invest in an idea that a lot of spendors like, which results in profits. They somehow stole that money from you fools who spent it? Or did you not receive the good or service for the money you freely released?

petegz28
03-28-2009, 02:27 PM
I'm on the coast...but it's the Gulf Coast of an eastern coastal state. If y'a know what I mean.

I hear things are booming in DC too. Real Estate is moving too. In fact home sales are climbing although modestly. Ayup! There's a repair cycle happening bit by bit.

There is a shop at my local mall that sells that stuff. His shop is about 3/4 empty now and he is not re-ordering anything cause the business is so bad.

But perhaps your McDonald's story would make him feel better.

banyon
03-28-2009, 02:40 PM
Malls are still VERY FULL here. It's downright crowded. Good sales everywhere though. Maybe the other's haven't lowered their prices enough.

Perhaps they haven't outsourced the labor to produce their products to desperate enough people yet? :shrug:

Cannibal
03-28-2009, 02:46 PM
I've been back from shopping at the mall and to a nursery that was closed.

I am pleased with my purchases! I got a terrific deals:

An orange linen short blazer to match a brown linen skirt with tropical silk shirt with orange and purple flowers on a brown and tan background. Brown real leather heels, boating shoes and flat black leather loafers....very sophisticated. Yoga pants and new sports bra.

Sounds quite hideous.

Jenson71
03-28-2009, 02:52 PM
Malls are still VERY FULL here. It's downright crowded. Good sales everywhere though. Maybe the other's haven't lowered their prices enough.

Sounds like Obama's done a great job so far in keeping the economy strong.

BucEyedPea
03-28-2009, 03:30 PM
Sounds like Obama's done a great job so far in keeping the economy strong.

Obama's money hasn't even gone into the economy yet. And the dire fear his administration's agents are promoting hasn't affected this area ( or DC for that matter either).

It's the deflationary pricing that's helping us through it at this point. We're in that phase until the new stimulus occurs. The banks are still sitting on the printed money handed to them.

Think about it, one of our four people were unemployed in the Great Depression ( which was just a recession at first and made into one by govt). That still means 3 out of 4 were employed.

BucEyedPea
03-28-2009, 03:31 PM
Sounds quite hideous.

I wouldn't expect a people eater to have good taste. :D



It's beautiful, but you'd have to see it. I'm a designer....I've got good taste.
At least I didn't buy anything white, since it reflects heat and contributes to global warming.

WilliamTheIrish
03-28-2009, 03:50 PM
I never knew mall population was an economic indicator.

It's much more convincing when you add in those caveats of : "I know people who..." and "I have read that..." and "there is a report I read"...

KILLER_CLOWN
03-28-2009, 04:00 PM
It's all about the malls baby! shopping mall, strip mall just mall it your way and lets spend our way out of the recession/depression.

BucEyedPea
03-28-2009, 04:47 PM
I never knew mall population was an economic indicator.

It's much more convincing when you add in those caveats of : "I know people who..." and "I have read that..." and "there is a report I read"...

I've put up plenty of links too. At least I don't quote pinkos or govt bureaucrats.

banyon
03-28-2009, 04:56 PM
I've put up plenty of links too. At least I don't quote pinkos or govt bureaucrats.

You put up one link from 2008 about one Australian company doing business in one area that lost a lot of money in 2008. (http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25108721-14334,00.html)

You didn't put up any other links.

KC native
03-28-2009, 05:01 PM
I've put up plenty of links too. At least I don't quote pinkos or govt bureaucrats.


That's because you like to deny reality. The evidence is right in front of your face and you choose to ignore it.

Calcountry
03-28-2009, 05:18 PM
That's because you like to deny reality. The evidence is right in front of your face and you choose to ignore it.Better than one who makes up reality as they go along.

Hydrae
03-28-2009, 05:25 PM
I wouldn't expect a people eater to have good taste. :D



It's beautiful, but you'd have to see it. I'm a designer....I've got good taste.
At least I didn't buy anything white, since it reflects heat and contributes to global warming.

But dark colors will make you hotter and you will use more energy trying to stay cool! :)

KC native
03-28-2009, 05:28 PM
Better than one who makes up reality as they go along.

Well, feel free to cite any specifics you disagree with.

BWillie
03-28-2009, 05:33 PM
This is a forced fake recession and the companies are taking advantage to lay people off and cut expenses.

Actually, I've seen alot of companies including my own that are actually doing better than they were a few years ago doing this. It's because they can, and they won't get chastised for it. In a good market the media will jump all over them, but they know it won't effect company and employee morale as much so they can get away with it.

WilliamTheIrish
03-28-2009, 07:50 PM
I've put up plenty of links too. At least I don't quote pinkos or govt bureaucrats.

Oh, and there's another one. "At least I don't ...."

BucEyedPea
03-28-2009, 07:52 PM
Oh, and there's another one. "At least I don't ...."

Now, what was your contribution in this thread?

Cannibal
03-28-2009, 09:00 PM
I wouldn't expect a people eater to have good taste. :D



It's beautiful, but you'd have to see it. I'm a designer....I've got good taste.
At least I didn't buy anything white, since it reflects heat and contributes to global warming.

I guess it depends on the body you've got. I can always put a sack over your head. Do you have a nice rack??? ROFL J/K

JohnnyV13
03-28-2009, 10:22 PM
I wouldn't expect a people eater to have good taste. :D



It's beautiful, but you'd have to see it. I'm a designer....I've got good taste.
At least I didn't buy anything white, since it reflects heat and contributes to global warming.

Wait, you mean women's clothes are supposed to enhance their appearance? I always thought they were there to force men into foreplay.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 12:42 AM
I was talking about the mall being full with shoppers.
Nice deflection banyon. 7.1% isn't that bad. And a mall can still have a fair or good amount of shoppers in it with some retail vacancies. That's not what I posted about.

View Post
U.S. Shopping Mall Vacancies Reach 10-Year High as Stores Fail
Share | Email | Print | A A A

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...zZE&refer=home

By Hui-yong Yu

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Vacancies at U.S. malls and shopping centers approached 10-year highs in the fourth quarter, and are set to rise further as declining retail sales put more stores out of business, research firm Reis Inc. said.

Regional mall vacancies rose to 7.1 percent last quarter from 6.6 percent in the third quarter. It was the highest vacancy rate since Reis began tracking regional malls in 2000, as well as the largest quarter-to-quarter jump in vacancies, according to New York-based Reis.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 12:43 AM
Wait, you mean women's clothes are supposed to enhance their appearance? I always thought they were there to force men into foreplay.

Women dress to please themselves particularly when it's clothes for work.
You're thinkin' about lingerie.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 12:45 AM
I guess it depends on the body you've got. I can always put a sack over your head. Do you have a nice rack??? ROFL J/K

As a matter of fact I do have a nice rack. I'll bet your junk is tiny because you think with that head.
Or are you trying to be the Iowanian of the left? Geezaz, you're worse than the NeoCons.

Now do you have something to contribute or are you a neanderthal and a cannibal too?

banyon
03-29-2009, 09:47 AM
I was talking about the mall being full with shoppers.
Nice deflection banyon. 7.1% isn't that bad. And a mall can still have a fair or good amount of shoppers in it with some retail vacancies. That's not what I posted about.

So your position is that the stores are failing and that vacancies are at a ten year high because malls everywhere are filled with shoppers? :spock:

And this is based solely on your anecdotal experience and the one link to the mall owning company that lost billions last year?

Maybe they're not actually shopping and people in your area just can't afford a treadmill.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 09:59 AM
All that needs to happen for these vacancies to shake out is for a corresponding deflation in mall rents to match sales. This would aid recovery. But with deflation being a BIG bugaboo to a Keynesian economist, this won't be allowed to happen....not with stimulus money being demanded. Nope!

In fact to some degree this is happening as the renters ( buyers of mall space) have demanded concessions from mall owners. Also, it's creating new opportunities for others. Marginal retailers in a bad location usually don't last so they're the first to leave.

It's not called a correction for nothing. This is not a bad thing, but a GOOD thing as the market is correcting. Let the retailers clamor for more concessions of the mall will lose more money. The malls know what is in their best interests more than any govt stimulus—a stimulus that sent false signals to retailers thinking we had real prosperity. So this was not a market phenomenom.




Shopping center rents fell by 1.1 percent nationally last year, according to Reis data. In the Baltimore area, rents fell 0.3 percent.

"What is happening here is that there is a power shift between the shopping center developer and the retailer," Davidowitz said. "Retailers are asking for everything. They're asking for build-out. They are asking for different lease terms, shorter commitments, more options, lower rents."

Those in the retail industry say that times are tough but that they believe the industry will eventually shake itself out.

"One thing you can say is that for every vacancy, you have the opportunity for different types of retailers," said John Connolly, an ICSC research analyst.

Executives at Kohl's and Forever 21 capitalized on another retailer's demise and said recently that they were going to take over 46 former locations of the California-based department store Mervyns.

"This downturn is creating opportunities for others," Maddux said. "The opportunities may not be realized quickly, but there are opportunities."

http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bal-te.bz.vacant16mar16,0,1033706.story


Yup! The above quote shows clearly that the market is working on a correction that needs to happen.

WilliamTheIrish
03-29-2009, 10:45 AM
Now, what was your contribution in this thread?

My contribution was to ask "When did mall population become an economic indicator"?

KC native
03-29-2009, 11:08 AM
All that needs to happen for these vacancies to shake out is for a corresponding deflation in mall rents to match sales. This would aid recovery. But with deflation being a BIG bugaboo to a Keynesian economist, this won't be allowed to happen....not with stimulus money being demanded. Nope!

In fact to some degree this is happening as the renters ( buyers of mall space) have demanded concessions from mall owners. Also, it's creating new opportunities for others. Marginal retailers in a bad location usually don't last so they're the first to leave.

It's not called a correction for nothing. This is not a bad thing, but a GOOD thing as the market is correcting. Let the retailers clamor for more concessions of the mall will lose more money. The malls know what is in their best interests more than any govt stimulus—a stimulus that sent false signals to retailers thinking we had real prosperity. So this was not a market phenomenom.





Yup! The above quote shows clearly that the market is working on a correction that needs to happen.

Your anecdotal evidence is nonsense. You were trying to claim that the recession is either non-existent or over blown because you see the malls full. Well, I hate to break it to you but commercial real estate (which includes malls) is overbuilt and has a long way to fall. This isn't deflation (deflation means everything is going down not one thing in isolation). This is simple supply and demand at work. Go look at some strip malls in your area and check out the vacancies. Then when you drive around look at all the office space for rent. Hell, you can even check and see that Manhattan real estate (which is the most resistant to price declines) is off anywhere from 15-30%.

Again, the real world numbers don't back you up but you continue to ignore them. It must be nice to live in such a delusional world where you can make up your own reality all the time.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 12:09 PM
My contribution was to ask "When did mall population become an economic indicator"?

Simple common sense and logic. Like how many people are shopping and sales from that would be an indicator. Don't you ever hear on your news data when it's reported that retail sales are down? Hmmmm? Well, retail was reported to be up 1% in January even. A lot of stores were pretty empty in late November too when that's usually an up time due to Christmas. That was down from last year iirc. I personally observed that and saw it on tv news. The most recent being both CNN and Fox.

You know what else some houses sold in my neighborhood recently after a lull. And guess what, I heard on CNN this last week those started up too.
Here, since you need the news or govt to tell you what's happening: Home Sales Climb at fastest rate pace in 10 months. (http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN2541536220090325?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews) Based on the Commerce Dept. Also mentions durable goods.

I hope you're not one who discounts your own direct observations on these things. Or do you need to have a CPI card with you when you shop to judge if there's inflation too? My goodness you must miss some unadvertised or reported deals that come via word of mouth when you shop. I do know this, I notice when business picks up for me or others.

And when I say " I heard" it's been from tv news or other news when I post later off the top of my head.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 12:13 PM
U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Halt Six-Month Slide (Update2) (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aA7IaN46fZBk&refer=worldwide)

From the Commerce Dept too. :D

FTR, there's more people in the malls here than I saw in late November.


Oh, and I heard here on my local radio 101.5 The Point that I wake up to in the morning, that ft employment job losses may not be good but things have improved for freelancers, consultants and part time workers. See, how the market adjusts and works things out so folks can survive, even if on less.

KC native
03-29-2009, 12:23 PM
Simple common sense and logic. Like how many people are shopping and sales from that would be an indicator. Don't you ever hear on your news data when it's reported that retail sales are down? Hmmmm? Well, retail was reported to be up 1% in January even. A lot of stores were pretty empty in late November too when that's usually an up time due to Christmas. That was down from last year iirc. I personally observed that and saw it on tv news. The most recent being both CNN and Fox.

You know what else some houses sold in my neighborhood recently after a lull. And guess what, I heard on CNN this last week those started up too.
Here, since you need the news or govt to tell you what's happening: Home Sales Climb at fastest rate pace in 10 months. (http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN2541536220090325?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews) Based on the Commerce Dept. Also mentions durable goods.

I hope you're not one who discounts your own direct observations on these things. Or do you need to have a CPI card with you when you shop to judge if there's inflation too? My goodness you must miss some unadvertised or reported deals that come via word of mouth when you shop. I do know this, I notice when business picks up for me or others.

And when I say " I heard" it's been from tv news or other news when I post later off the top of my head.

Go see my mathematically innumerate post (post 32). The confidence interval includes 0 so they can't say if home sales went up or not. If you actually read the report (which I doubt you ever will) it actually says that the year over year numbers are what matters not the monthly numbers since home sales have such high seasonality. If you look at Year over Year numbers then housing sales were down 41% from Feb of 08.

Also, the Commerce department stated in their own report that the 1% increase was due to higher prices so real spending was actually negative.

Hydrae
03-29-2009, 12:45 PM
Go see my mathematically innumerate post (post 32). The confidence interval includes 0 so they can't say if home sales went up or not. If you actually read the report (which I doubt you ever will) it actually says that the year over year numbers are what matters not the monthly numbers since home sales have such high seasonality. If you look at Year over Year numbers then housing sales were down 41% from Feb of 08.

Also, the Commerce department stated in their own report that the 1% increase was due to higher prices so real spending was actually negative.

So help educate me on this. From one of the links at the bottom of your post is this tidbit:

This is 3.3% (±11.7%)* above the revised March rate of 509,000, but is 42.0% (±8.1%) below the April 2007 estimate of 907,000.

So housing was down year over year in April nearly 2 years ago by 42%. But we were not in this recession, downturn, whatever you want to call it, at that time.

I suppose I will see if I can find some information that shows year over year for more than just a single month at a time. Otherwise from the little information I have right now, this appears to be an ongoing trend that has little bearing on the overall issue today.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 01:15 PM
Oh and Irish, where did I say mall shoppers were a indicator per se. I didn't.

I simply commented about an observation including how the deflation was leading to some terrific sales which helps everyone get through this downturn.
One thing was things were getting too high and those things needed to come down in price. That's part of a correction. It's not called that for nothing.
It brings in buyers.

Pitt Gorilla
03-29-2009, 01:17 PM
We were at the Waterloo, IA mall yesterday and the place was packed. Sears was crazy busy. Of course this is anecdotal evidence, but it was a bit strange to see retail doing so well.

Of course, the CF Kohl's was packed as well, but it usually is.

HonestChieffan
03-29-2009, 01:21 PM
We were at the Waterloo, IA mall yesterday and the place was packed. Sears was crazy busy. Of course this is anecdotal evidence, but it was a bit strange to see retail doing so well.

Of course, the CF Kohl's was packed as well, but it usually is.

It means nothing till Obo says we are in the clear. In the meantime have some feelings for the people on the coasts will you. Bragging how good Iowa is is insensitive, you pig.

banyon
03-29-2009, 01:21 PM
Correlation and causation.

Aren't a lot of people getting tax refunds right now as well?

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 01:22 PM
We were at the Waterloo, IA mall yesterday and the place was packed. Sears was crazy busy. Of course this is anecdotal evidence, but it was a bit strange to see retail doing so well.

Of course, the CF Kohl's was packed as well, but it usually is.

What's wrong with anecdotal evidence? The Keynesians claim to be empirical. That's empirical. It may just be a part of the picture but it's still part of the picture. So it's part of the evidence. Afterall, no one can run a fully controlled experiment on the masses. Too big, too many factors, regional differences etc. Aggregate demand is kinda silly in some ways.

KC native
03-29-2009, 01:23 PM
So help educate me on this. From one of the links at the bottom of your post is this tidbit:



So housing was down year over year in April nearly 2 years ago by 42%. But we were not in this recession, downturn, whatever you want to call it, at that time.

I suppose I will see if I can find some information that shows year over year for more than just a single month at a time. Otherwise from the little information I have right now, this appears to be an ongoing trend that has little bearing on the overall issue today.

Yes, the decline in housing started in 2006. I have a chart that shows monthly existing home sales since 05. Check it out.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 01:24 PM
It means nothing till Obo says we are in the clear. In the meantime have some feelings for the people on the coasts will you. Bragging how good Iowa is is insensitive, you pig.

This coast's malls are full don't forget.

KC native
03-29-2009, 01:26 PM
What's wrong with anecdotal evidence? The Keynesians claim to be empirical. That's empirical. It may just be a part of the picture but it's still part of the picture. So it's part of the evidence. Afterall, no one can run a fully controlled experiment on the masses. Too big, too many factors, regional differences etc. Aggregate demand is kinda silly in some ways.

Um, if you read how government reports are compiled which is readily available on all of the government websites you can see they're short comings and strengths. These reports may not be perfect but they are a hell of a lot better than your rosy colored anecdotal evidence.

Aggregate demand isn't silly. I guess when you live in a fantasy economic world that doesn't include numbers and verifiable proof, it doesn't matter.

Hydrae
03-29-2009, 01:26 PM
I have 2 small strip malls being built in my immediate area. Don't know what that may indicate other than that mid-Texas has not been hit as hard as many other areas.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 01:27 PM
Sales, sales, sales. Deflation folks. It helps the economy recover.

Oh but we need stimulus money from the gub'ment.

KC native
03-29-2009, 01:29 PM
I have 2 small strip malls being built in my immediate area. Don't know what that may indicate other than that mid-Texas has not been hit as hard as many other areas.

Yes, it hasn't been as hard hit but you have to think about the lead times for these businesses and although they are being built it doesn't mean businesses won't back out of the leases or that they are fully leased.

I'm in Fort Worth and they are still putting up a lot of condo a retail space that's only about half full. I have no idea what they are thinking because most of the time those types of developments aren't built until they have 70-90% occupancy.

KC native
03-29-2009, 01:30 PM
Deflation folks. It helps the economy recover.

No, it doesn't. Deflation hurts everyone. Lenders because collateral is worth less. Borrowers for the same reason and that they are paying back debt with money that's worth less. All around everyone gets screwed.

Hydrae
03-29-2009, 01:31 PM
Yes, the decline in housing started in 2006. I have a chart that shows monthly existing home sales since 05. Check it out.

This would indicate that the housing slump started about April 2006. Why weren't people screaming about this 2+ years ago?

For that matter, if housing was dropping like that with existing homes, why on earth were so many new homes still being built?

KC native
03-29-2009, 01:35 PM
This would indicate that the housing slump started about April 2006. Why weren't people screaming about this 2+ years ago?

For that matter, if housing was dropping like that with existing homes, why on earth were so many new homes still being built?

People were screaming about this two years ago but outfits like CNBC and the cabal of supply siders were saying this time is different. Roubini has been right about this the whole time as well as a host of other economists who were shouted down at the time. Many investment professionals were saying the same thing.

The new homes were still being built because the home builders have to build to sell the land that the homes are sitting on. Also, you have to factor in the permit process and the lead in times for building and you can see how many builders had no choice but to build.

Edit: The homebuilders can't just sell land that they've bought for a few reasons. One, their corporate charter prevents it. Also, it would screw up their accounting because they would have to back it out of Cost of goods sold and then make an investment account which would mean they would have to restate their financial statements all the way back to when the land was purchased.

banyon
03-29-2009, 01:36 PM
Sales, sales, sales. Deflation folks. It helps China's economy recover.


FYP

Hydrae
03-29-2009, 01:37 PM
Yes, it hasn't been as hard hit but you have to think about the lead times for these businesses and although they are being built it doesn't mean businesses won't back out of the leases or that they are fully leased.

I'm in Fort Worth and they are still putting up a lot of condo a retail space that's only about half full. I have no idea what they are thinking because most of the time those types of developments aren't built until they have 70-90% occupancy.

I was rather surprised when one of those little strip malls opened with a new Starbucks. The sign that they were coming was up before Starbucks closed a lot of stores worldwide. I expected this one not to open after that but it opened up a couple of weeks ago. I don't frequent Starbucks but it appears they are doing decently so far. I am just waiting for the little pizza/sports bar at the other end to open up so I can get them started on being a Chiefs bar! :D

banyon
03-29-2009, 01:45 PM
This would indicate that the housing slump started about April 2006. Why weren't people screaming about this 2+ years ago?

For that matter, if housing was dropping like that with existing homes, why on earth were so many new homes still being built?

http://oldprof.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451ddb269e201156f82d44e970b-450wi

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 01:54 PM
This would indicate that the housing slump started about April 2006. Why weren't people screaming about this 2+ years ago?

For that matter, if housing was dropping like that with existing homes, why on earth were so many new homes still being built?

I told some friends who were buying a house in October 2006 to not buy as it was going to crash. They said it was going to go up. So did his mortage broker. I told them their broker was wrong. They bought it at a 2004 price even....and I told them it could go down as low as things were in 1998. They're having to do a short sale now.

Not only that but I was depositing some money last week and a broker at that bank insisted home values went up in 2007 and 2008. IN one of the worst states affected by this—Florida. No wonder the banks are a mess. These are our experts.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 01:58 PM
I was rather surprised when one of those little strip malls opened with a new Starbucks. The sign that they were coming was up before Starbucks closed a lot of stores worldwide. I expected this one not to open after that but it opened up a couple of weeks ago. I don't frequent Starbucks but it appears they are doing decently so far. I am just waiting for the little pizza/sports bar at the other end to open up so I can get them started on being a Chiefs bar! :D

Ya know Home Shopping Network had layoffs but they were still hiring in certain areas of their company. They contacted me last fall and others told me they were laying off. So be careful. Well, they told me there were laying off non-essential workers but still needed two art directors. The same happens with store closings by these chains. The least profitable locations get shut down first. Others remain or new ones may be added. I noticed that Starbuck's prices have dropped a bit too. They also had more competition by other coffee places imitating them but with a lower price. That's how the market is supposed to work.

Sully
03-29-2009, 02:06 PM
I remember growing up in a pretty poor household.
We'd go spend the day "shopping" many times, crowding up the malls. Or in the hottest days of summer, we'd go to an early movie, and simply stay at the theater for hours.

I thought I'd tell that since this thread is all about dismissing broad evidence in place of personal anecdotes.

It's also pretty fresh in my mind, since I was using it to explain why, during the Great Depression, movie attendance, as well as sporting event sales went up, while everything else went down.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 02:34 PM
I thought I'd tell that since this thread is all about dismissing broad evidence in place of personal anecdotes.



Someone needs a good dictionary. Personal anectodes are empirical observations. banyon is one who claims empirical data matters all the time. In fact that's what the Keynesian economists claim matters.

There were also stats posted bearing out those observations as true. How 'bout you take a look at them before dismissing testimony—something that's allowed in a court of law as evidence for convictions.

Stats don't tell the whole story, especially Keynesian stats which allegedly claim to be scientific but which can never measure human action or values and which are manipulated by politicians who remove items that were once measured before but are no longer when the numbers don't suit them. Politicians do not do things in the public interest. They act in their own interests.

But as far as measuring what all the players in a market value, there is no such aggregate thing. Just do your own little "anecdotal" but controlled experiment by giving the same $500 to 500 different people. How do you predict what each will choose to do with it? One may invest, one may waste it by drinking it and using it in strip clubs, one may divide it up different ways, one may buy food. You can't provide any controlled data for such things. And they are more valid and real than so called aggregate demand or anecdotes by politicians, especially one who wants to use a crisis for their agenda. All politicians have one.

Hence the mall observations count as part of the picture. And they were backed up with stats too.


EPIC FAIL

Sully
03-29-2009, 02:37 PM
Someone needs a good dictionary. Personal anectodes are empirical observations. banyon is one who claims empirical data matters all the time. In fact that's what the Keynesian economists claim matters.

There were also stats posted bearing out those observations as true. How 'bout you take a look at them before dismissing testimony—something that allowed in a court of law as evidence.

Stats don't tell the whole story, especially Keynesian stats which allegedly claim to be scientific but which can never measure human action or values and which are manipulated by politicians who remove items that were once measured before but are no longer when the numbers don't suit them. Politicians do not do things in the public interest. They act in their own interests.

But as far as measuring what the all the players in a market value, there is no such aggregate thing. Just do your own little "anecdotal" but controlled experiment by giving the same $500 to 500 different people. How do you predict what each will choose to do with it? One may invest, one may waste it by drinking it and using it in strip clubs, one may divide it up different ways, one may buy food. You can't provide any controlled data for such things. And they are more valid and real than so called aggregate demand or anecdotes by politicians, especially one who wants to use a crisis for their agenda. All politicians have one.

Hence the mall observations count as part of the picture. And they were backed up with stats too.


EPIC FAIL

Cuckoo!

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 02:39 PM
*crickets*

KC native
03-29-2009, 02:41 PM
Someone needs a good dictionary. Personal anectodes are empirical observations. banyon is one who claims empirical data matters all the time. In fact that's what the Keynesian economists claim matters.

There were also stats posted bearing out those observations as true. How 'bout you take a look at them before dismissing testimony—something that allowed in a court of law as evidence.

Stats don't tell the whole story, especially Keynesian stats which allegedly claim to be scientific but which can never measure human action or values and which are manipulated by politicians who remove items that were once measured before but are no longer when the numbers don't suit them. Politicians do not do things in the public interest. They act in their own interests.

But as far as measuring what the all the players in a market value, there is no such aggregate thing. Just do your own little "anecdotal" but controlled experiment by giving the same $500 to 500 different people. How do you predict what each will choose to do with it? One may invest, one may waste it by drinking it and using it in strip clubs, one may divide it up different ways, one may buy food. You can't provide any controlled data for such things. And they are more valid and real than so called aggregate demand or anecdotes by politicians, especially one who wants to use a crisis for their agenda. All politicians have one.

Hence the mall observations count as part of the picture. And they were backed up with stats too.


EPIC FAIL
Wow, really?

The expression anecdotal evidence has two distinct meanings.

(1) Evidence in the form of an anecdote or hearsay is called anecdotal if there is doubt about its veracity: the evidence itself is considered untrustworthy or untrue.

(2) Evidence, which may itself be true and verifiable, used to deduce a conclusion which does not follow from it, usually by generalizing from an insufficient amount of evidence. For example "my grandfather smoked like a chimney and died healthy in a car crash at the age of 99" does not disprove the proposition that "smoking markedly increases the probability of cancer and heart disease at a relatively early age". In this case, the evidence may itself be true, but does not warrant the conclusion.

In both cases the conclusion is unreliable; it may not be untrue, but it doesn't follow from the "evidence".

Evidence can be anecdotal in both senses: "Goat yogurt prolongs life: I heard that a man in a mountain village who ate only yogurt lived to 120."

The term is often used in contrast to scientific evidence, such as evidence-based medicine, which are types of formal accounts. Some anecdotal evidence does not qualify as scientific evidence because its nature prevents it from being investigated using the scientific method. Misuse of anecdotal evidence is a logical fallacy and is sometimes informally referred to as the "person who" fallacy ("I know a person who..."; "I know of a case where..." etc. Compare with hasty generalization). Anecdotal evidence is not necessarily representative of a "typical" experience; statistical evidence can more accurately determine how typical something is.


FYI government reports don't project for the most part. All of the economic reports I have cited are backward looking (meaning they are determined by the evidence collected).

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 04:11 PM
Are you ever gonna answer why the malls are full? I guess not.

Pioli Zombie
03-29-2009, 04:14 PM
The Great Mall in Olathe could use a few more shoppers.
Posted via Mobile Device

KC native
03-29-2009, 04:15 PM
Are you ever gonna answer why the malls are full? I guess not.

I don't need to. The spending data already tells me all I need to know. I don't rely on anecdotal, biased evidence.

WilliamTheIrish
03-29-2009, 07:53 PM
I told some friends ....

THESE are what we need a dictionary for.

dirk digler
03-29-2009, 07:55 PM
Are you ever gonna answer why the malls are full? I guess not.

People got their income tax money? :shrug:

Plus alot of retailers are having a ton of good sales.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 08:08 PM
People got their income tax money? :shrug:

Plus alot of retailers are having a ton of good sales.

Well that's what I was saying. It's deflation. I didn't know about the tax money though. Unless one had to pay.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 08:10 PM
THESE are what we need a dictionary for.
Hey, don't say I didn't warn them. They're in a world of hurt now listening to the people who covered up the real estate bubble and said the economy was good. That's what friends are for and no dictionary is needed for that.

dirk digler
03-29-2009, 08:11 PM
Well that's what I was saying. It's deflation. I didn't know about the tax money though. Unless one had to pay.

I am sure retailers are trying to get people into their stores by offering good deals.

As far the tax money goes I got mine a couple of weeks ago but I am not spending very much of it.

BucEyedPea
03-29-2009, 08:14 PM
I am sure retailers are trying to get people into their stores by offering good deals.

As far the tax money goes I got mine a couple of weeks ago but I am not spending very much of it.

There's sales everywhere....and with good cuts in prices too. But this is just the deflationary part ....it won't last. Not when the stimulus and monetarization hits.

StcChief
03-29-2009, 09:02 PM
Let the market correct.

petegz28
03-30-2009, 08:06 AM
SOME malls are full cause people can only afford deep discount sales, as opposed to taken a winter vacation, buying a new car, etc., etc.


This is about the most ignorant thread I have seen on how to gauge the economy.

BucEyedPea
03-30-2009, 08:18 AM
SOME malls are full cause people can only afford deep discount sales, as opposed to taken a winter vacation, buying a new car, etc., etc.
The point was deflation will also make people spend, helps them through it. Inflation instead is the solution by our Keyenesian mainstream economists.
You raised a good point about big ticket items vs small ticket items. Such things like clothes and movies did pretty well in the Great Depression too.

This is about the most ignorant thread I have seen on how to gauge the economy.

Thanks for letting us know how you think of yourself. Projection is a mirror into one's personality.

If you want to support US govt looting being at an all-time high feel free. That's the ultimate ignorance.

petegz28
03-30-2009, 08:38 AM
The point was deflation will also make people spend, helps them through it. Inflation instead is the solution by our Keyenesian mainstream economists.
You raised a good point about big ticket items vs small ticket items. Such things like clothes and movies did pretty well in the Great Depression too.



Thanks for letting us know how you think of yourself. Projection is a mirror into one's personality.

If you want to support US govt looting being at an all-time high feel free. That's the ultimate ignorance.

Talk about projecting.

WilliamTheIrish
03-30-2009, 09:40 AM
... Projection is a mirror into one's personality.

I told this to a friend of mine once. I read it in a book. There was a study done one time.

BucEyedPea
04-07-2009, 12:50 PM
Ayup! My gut instincts ( just like on Iraq) and observations turn out to be on the money again.


1:38 "...two months in a row retail sales better than expected"

Earlier Kudlow mentions the "better February,early March economic numbers outside of jobs....."

Schiff versus the Inflationists.



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BucEyedPea
04-07-2009, 12:52 PM
I told this to a friend of mine once. I read it in a book. There was a study done one time.

Oh, it's just an observation of mine from life experience.

jiveturkey
04-07-2009, 01:32 PM
I thought that this was pretty dumb when I first read it but the employment picture has been improving in the last couple of weeks as well.

Nothing major and it's only my small view of the world.

I have other independent recruiters that I network with that are saying the same thing. Small improvements.

I hope that it continues.

BucEyedPea
04-07-2009, 01:46 PM
I thought that this was pretty dumb when I first read it but the employment picture has been improving in the last couple of weeks as well.

Nothing major and it's only my small view of the world.

I have other independent recruiters that I network with that are saying the same thing. Small improvements.

I hope that it continues.

Kudlow said "except" for job numbers. But if you see some improvement in the area, then great. BTW I found a job in this climate myself. And they wanted me to take it full time but I didn't want that. I even got some flex time that I wanted and can take some work home. Who would have thought? That was back in Jan too.

jiveturkey
04-07-2009, 02:12 PM
I'm still expecting a tough year for the recruiting biz but it was really painful up until mid March. Now there's at least some positive signs. Every little bit counts right now even if it's a small sign.

BucEyedPea
04-07-2009, 02:25 PM
I'm still expecting a tough year for the recruiting biz but it was really painful up until mid March. Now there's at least some positive signs. Every little bit counts right now even if it's a small sign.

Maybe things bottomed out and they only way to go is up? I think some indicators will lag while some improve. Just a guess.

banyon
05-25-2009, 10:05 AM
Recession Turns Malls Into Ghost Towns

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124294047987244803.html

By KRIS HUDSON and VANESSA O'CONNELL
CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Malls, those ubiquitous shopping meccas that sprang up in the 1950s, are dwindling in number, with many struggling properties reduced to largely vacant shells.

On the low-income east side of Charlotte, N.C., the 1.1-million-square-foot Eastland Mall recently lost a slew of key tenants, including a Dillard's and, next month, a Sears. Sales per square foot at the venue fell to $210 in 2008 from $288 in 2001.

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-DS423_deadma_D_20090521131719.jpg

As the recession alters American spending habits, traditional shopping malls like Eastland Mall are deteriorating at an accelerating pace.

See more photos and interactive graphics
The Metcalf South Shopping Center in Overland Park, Kan., is languishing after plans to redevelop it into an open-air shopping district fizzled. The stretch of shops that connects the two largest tenants -- a Sears and a Macy's -- stands mostly vacant, patrolled by security guards.

With their maze of walkways and fast-food courts, malls have long been an iconic, if sometimes unsightly, presence in the American retail landscape. A few were made famous by their sheer size, others for the range of shopping and social diversions they provided.

But the long recession is helping to empty out the promenades. Some analysts estimate that the number of so-called "dead malls" -- centers debilitated by anemic sales and high vacancy rates -- will swell to more than 100 by the end of this year.

In the 12 months ended March 31, U.S. malls collectively posted a 6.5% decline in tenants' same-store sales, according to Green Street Advisors Inc., a real-estate research firm. The recent slump was led by an average 7.3% sales drop at Simon Property Group Inc., the operator with the largest number of mall locations.

The industry's woes are worsening. Thinning customer traffic, and subsequent hits to tenants' sales and profits, prompted Standard & Poor's Corp. last month to lower the credit ratings of the department-store sector. That knocked Macy's Inc. and J.C. Penney Co. into junk territory and pushed others deeper into junk. Sears Holdings Corp., a cornerstone tenant at many malls, is expected to close 23 stores this month and next.

General Growth Properties, which owns more than 200 U.S. malls, filed for bankruptcy protection April 16, due mainly to its failure to refinance billions of dollars of debt coming due. While the real-estate investment trust has said the filing will have no impact on its mall business, analysts say a prolonged bankruptcy proceeding could make retailers nervous about sticking around once their leases expire.

The severity of the recession is turning some malls that were once viewed as viable into potential casualties. "Any mall that's sitting on life support is probably going to get its plug pulled" as the economy stalls, says Michael Glimcher, chairman and CEO of Glimcher Realty Trust, which owns 23 U.S. properties, including Eastland Mall in Charlotte.



Look back at the American mall's rise to prominence and recent woes.
One industry rule of thumb holds that any large, enclosed mall generating sales per square foot of $250 or less -- the U.S. average is $381 -- is in danger of failure. By that measure, Eastland is one of 84 dead malls in a 1,032-mall database compiled by Green Street. (The database focuses heavily on malls owned by publicly traded landlords and doesn't account for several dozen failing malls in private hands.) If retail sales continue to decline at current rates, the dead-mall roster could exceed 100 properties by the end of this year, according to Green Street. That's up from an estimated 40 failing malls in 2006, before the recession began.

"This time around, because of the dramatic changes in consumer spending practices, we're very likely to see more malls in the death spiral than we've ever seen before," says Green Street analyst Jim Sullivan.

Failing malls didn't get into trouble overnight, and most began their descent long before the tough climate. Typically, a mall begins to suffer due to job losses and other pressures in the surrounding neighborhood or because a newer mall opens nearby. The loss of key tenants -- such as the wave of department-store closures over the past three years -- hastens the demise. Also sapping malls' vibrancy: the increased preference among consumers for big-box stores, such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp., which rarely operate in malls.

Developers, in fact, have been moving away from the enclosed-mall format in favor of big-box centers anchored by free-standing giants such as Wal-Mart or open-air shopping centers with tiny parks and outdoor cafes sprinkled among fashion stores. Only one enclosed mall has opened in the U.S. since 2006: The Mall at Turtle Creek in Jonesboro, Ark.

These pressures, coupled with landlords' difficulties refinancing debts in the bone-dry capital markets, signal tough years ahead for retail-property owners -- even after consumer spending begins to rebound. "The shopping-center bankruptcies and the REIT bankruptcies are the ticking time bomb that people aren't talking about," says Burt P. Flickinger III, managing director of Strategic Resource Group, a research firm.

Four months ago, executives at J.C. Penney headquarters in Plano, Texas, called a "triage" meeting to discuss a recent study of the financial condition and health of the 550 malls housing Penney stores. The study's conclusion: 15 of its stores are located in malls at risk of failure.

"We started to see things heading south," says Penney CEO Myron "Mike" Ullman III. It was important, he notes, to "get ahead of this" mall problem by reviewing Penney's new store strategy to determine whether it might relocate existing mall stores. Over the past 18 months, Penney's weekly sales have been trending better at stand-alone stores that aren't attached to traditional malls.

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-AQ004_DEADMA_NS_20090521191222.gif

Shoppers watched ice skaters on the central ice rink of Eastland Mall when the Charlotte mall opened in 1975. The ice rink closed last year, along with several of Eastland's stores.
Hundreds of other anchor stores -- generally two- and three-story department stores that drive mall momentum -- are pulling out of properties. Several anchor chains, including Gottschalks Inc., Goody's Family Clothing Inc. and Boscov's Department Store LLC, filed for bankruptcy protection in recent months. Goody's ended up liquidating its 282 stores, as Gottschalks is now doing with its 58. Boscov's closed 10 locations. As mall-based chains face the prospect of a much smaller market, more closures are likely. So far for 2009, monthly sales declines at upscale retailers such as Saks Inc., Nordstrom Inc. and Neiman Marcus Group have registered mostly in the double digits, compared with results a year ago.

Saks CEO Stephen Sadove is talking with mall owners about closing a few of the retailer's 53 Saks Fifth Avenue stores. "You have to ask yourself: Do you believe the prospects for a given store or mall are going to be positive? Can you make money over the long term?" he says.

For towns and cities that are home to dying malls, the fallout can be devastating. Malls hire hundreds of workers and are significant contributors to the local tax base. In suburbs and small towns, malls often are the only major public spaces and the safest venues for teenagers to shop, hang out and seek part-time work.

Commonly, "the mall will be a meeting place, or, in some cases, like a city center," says Carl Steidtmann, chief economist at Deloitte LLP. The deterioration of a mall can spawn broader problems, he notes. "It can become a crime magnet."

The gradual fade-out of marginal malls has prompted a thriving Web culture dedicated to sharing information about dead or dying properties. Sites such as Flickr.com, Deadmalls.com and Labelscar.com are drawing traffic from mall employees, shoppers and other mall mourners who swap stories, photos and predictions about the status of centers on their way out.

"So sad!" wrote Edith Schilla, 45 years old, of Independence, Ohio, in an April 3 posting on Labelscar.com following her visit to a Sears liquidation sale at the Randall Park Mall in North Randall, Ohio. "I was able to peek into the mall and was so overtaken by the vast emptiness," she wrote, recalling it as previously "so busy."

After the Sears closes next month, Randall Park will be left with only a few remaining tenants, including an Ohio Technical College automotive school. It currently has the most popular page on Labelscar.com, which so far this year has a 25% increase in postings on its "dead malls" category. Mall owner Whichard Real Estate LLC is trying to sell the property, which likely needs to be torn down and rebuilt into something else, says Whichard asset manager Kenneth Whichard. Local officials, meanwhile, want to fill the mall with education and industrial tenants.

During past economic cycles, dead malls were frequently redeveloped into mixed-use space that includes apartments, offices or parks. Repurposing mall space today will be more difficult. Lenders and investors are moving away from commercial real estate as property values decline and delinquencies rise on debt used to acquire or develop properties. Retail real estate has been hit especially hard, as declining retail sales and store closures hammer mall landlords.

In Charlotte, Eastland's deterioration into a dead mall matches the fate of many others across the U.S.

Faison Enterprises Inc. opened Eastland in 1975 as the city's second regional mall. Shoppers crowded four-deep around its skating rink to see local dignitaries kneel gingerly on the ice as a Presbyterian minister blessed the structure with prayers. In the early years, shoppers flocked to the mall's Miller & Rhoads and Ivey's department stores, among others.

"It was just a great place to go and be seen," said Mary Kate Cline, a 51-year-old who frequented the mall in its early years but can't recall the last time she entered it.

Eastland's reign lasted roughly two decades. Its market began to erode when the area around Eastland fostered low-income housing. Meanwhile, the Charlotte area's more affluent residents and new arrivals gravitated to suburbs on the city's north and south ends. Developers built and renovated malls in those suburbs, drawing shoppers away from Eastland. In recent years, discount stores such as Wal-Mart and midtier Kohl's Corp. sprung up near Eastland, siphoning off more of its shoppers.

Journal Communitydiscuss“ Why go to a mall anymore? I can get whatever I want cheaper on the Internet and it comes to my door. ”
— Wade Burchette A string of major store exits at Eastland began with Penney's departure in 2002. Belk Inc. closed in 2007, along with several national specialty stores. The closures gained momentum amid the recession last year, when stores including New York & Co., Genesco Inc.'s Journeys, Finish Line Inc. and Dillard's Inc. pulled out, leaving behind empty, gated storefronts.

A handful of retail holdouts -- stores for Footlocker Inc., Burlington Coat Factory Inc. and several local merchants, many paying reduced rents -- are reluctant to leave, even as sales dwindle. "I've made my business here," Luz Pavas said, while manning her kiosk of health and beauty aids. "I don't want to move to another mall. I want Eastland Mall to be like it was eight years ago."

Boarded-up stores near the mall languish as reminders of departed retailers, including Mega Food Market, Uptons department store and Harris Teeter Inc. Neighbors and community leaders want Eastland razed and replaced with developments such as upscale housing to attract a new demographic.

But the mall's current owner, Glimcher Realty Trust, the Columbus, Ohio-based owner of 23 malls, is keen to sell Eastland rather than spend the hefty sums needed to redevelop it. A better investment, says the company, "would be to put money into assets that were doing well," according to Glimcher spokeswoman Lisa Indest.

Charlotte city officials have lined up resources to help reinvent the mall, including $20 million in public financing. They acknowledge that finding a developer willing to underwrite the additional $180 million needed to turn Eastland into a mix of housing, shops and parks will be tough.

"No one's kidding themselves that this is an easy real-estate deal," says Charlotte City Councilman John Lassiter. "It wasn't easy when the market was good. Now it's much harder."

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HonestChieffan
05-25-2009, 10:12 AM
Bulldozer the place. If no one shops at a mall then its not a place to have a business that is catering to shoppers.

StcChief
05-25-2009, 07:04 PM
haven't been to one in years.... they are cousins to MacDonalds....no dollars from me.

orange
05-26-2009, 03:46 PM
Recession Turns Malls Into Ghost Towns

...





But on the other hand:


Consumer Confidence Soars In May
ANNE D'INNOCENZIO | May 26, 2009 04:52 PM EST |

(FILE - In this file photo taken Monday, May 18, 2009, at the Home Dept store in Little Rock, Ark., shopper Gary Lody picks up building materials for a project at his home. Consumer confidence extended its rebound in May, soaring to the highest level since last September as more shoppers are feeling the worst of the recession is behind them. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston, file))


NEW YORK — Even with unemployment still rising and home prices still slumping, Americans are getting their confidence back in the economy.

A widely watched barometer of confidence unexpectedly rose to the highest level since September, buoyed by an unexpected surge in the stock market, hopes that the job market might turn around and the belief that the worst of the recession is behind us.

But don't expect shoppers to buy expensive jeans and fancy furniture anytime soon.

"Consumers are not likely to spend just because they think things will get better," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia. "They will actually have to see them get better."

As a testament to the economy's challenges, a closely monitored housing index also released Tuesday showed home prices fell at the sharpest rate ever in the first quarter, though the drop-off was worse at the beginning of the quarter.

Meanwhile, Americans are grappling with an unemployment rate that's expected to climb to 9.2 percent in May, up from 8.9 percent, as companies lay off more workers.

That has helped push shoppers to keep shopping at discount stores and cutting back on nonessentials.

Cheri Radke, 52, of Waukesha, Wis., says she buys more food, makeup and other necessities at Wal-Mart and shops sales at Target. Radke works in a bank and has been scared by seeing people cash more unemployment checks, so she's trying to be frugal.

"More on a need basis, less than a want," she said of her shopping habits. "I'm trying to be more cost-conscious."

Still, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index's 14.1-point surge to 54.9, following another big gain in April, is encouraging. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expecting 42.3. In February, confidence levels had hit a new historic low of 25.3.

May's confidence level is the highest since eight months ago, when it was 61.4. The levels are also closer to last May's 58.1, though the widely watched barometer is still far from healthy. A reading above 90 means the economy is on solid footing. Above 100 signals strong growth.

The consumer confidence is determined by a mail survey of a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households from May 1 to May 19.

Much of the improvement in confidence came from the Expectations Index, which measures shoppers' outlook over the next six months. That barometer climbed to 72.3 from 51.0 in April. Consumers' assessment in the present situation, however, was still weak, rising to 28.9 from 25.5 last month.

It also showed that shoppers were less pessimistic about the job market, even though it remains grim.

Investors focused on the upbeat sentiment reading, shaking off the downbeat report on the housing market. In early afternoon trading, the Dow rose 200.24, or 2.4 percent, to 8,477.56.

The confidence report offered encouraging news to merchants, after confidence plummeted to historic lows late last year.

Consumer confidence sank to 38.8 in October after the financial meltdown and stock market plunge, at that time lowest level since The Conference Board started tracking the data. It has fallen even lower since then. But the recent two-month stock rally has helped spur dramatic rebounds in April and May.

Meanwhile, better-than-expected earnings results from such retailers as Sears Holdings Corp. and Gap Inc. have offered some evidence that spending has begun to stabilize, with sales declines moderating.

Still, the retail business overall is weak, and economists don't expect to see any modest recovery in spending until later this year. Vitner believes it will be another year before merchants enjoy strong spending growth.

While Gary Thayer, chief economist at Wells Fargo Advisors, was encouraged by May's confidence report, he noted that confidence still has a way to go before shoppers go back to splurging. That can only happen when the job and housing markets start to turn around.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller National Home Price index reported Tuesday that home prices tumbled by 19.1 percent in the first quarter compared with the same quarter in 2008, the biggest year-over-year decline in its 21-year history. Home prices have fallen 32.2 percent since peaking in the second quarter of 2006 and have fallen to the levels seen at the end of 2002.

___

AP Retail Writer Emily Fredrix in Waukesha, Wis., and AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa in Washington contributed to this report.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/26/consumer-confidence-soars_0_n_207692.html

KC native
05-26-2009, 04:16 PM
But on the other hand:


Consumer Confidence Soars In May
ANNE D'INNOCENZIO | May 26, 2009 04:52 PM EST |

(FILE - In this file photo taken Monday, May 18, 2009, at the Home Dept store in Little Rock, Ark., shopper Gary Lody picks up building materials for a project at his home. Consumer confidence extended its rebound in May, soaring to the highest level since last September as more shoppers are feeling the worst of the recession is behind them. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston, file))


___

AP Retail Writer Emily Fredrix in Waukesha, Wis., and AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa in Washington contributed to this report.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/26/consumer-confidence-soars_0_n_207692.html

Consumer confidence is a bad number to use to justify improvement in the economy. People are notoriously poor at predicting their own economic behavior. Consumer spending is by far a better indicator and that is still trending down. Consumer confidence is best analyzed when it is taken as part of the picture.

JohnnyV13
05-26-2009, 06:59 PM
Consumer confidence is a bad number to use to justify improvement in the economy. People are notoriously poor at predicting their own economic behavior. Consumer spending is by far a better indicator and that is still trending down. Consumer confidence is best analyzed when it is taken as part of the picture.

I agree, consumer confidence is far less important than how they act on that confidence (spending). I guess its only significance is to predict future spending trends. Even so, with unemployment still going up, I doubt we'll see increases in spending no matter how confident some people say they are.

Guru
05-26-2009, 11:13 PM
All malls need to close.