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View Full Version : Football How much is Jay Cutler, the commodity, worth?


Delano
03-28-2009, 10:39 PM
Brees, Ryan, Rivers, Cutler and Manning (and maybe Brady, too) (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=1724)

Posted by Chase Stuart on Monday, March 23, 2009

The biggest story in the NFL these days not involving the NFL draft has to do with the bizarre circus involving Jay Cutler (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CutlJa00.htm). Many have written about everything from Cutlerís production and his psyche to macro thoughts on Bill Belichick (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BeliBi0c.htm) disciples; I have nothing to add there. Iíd rather take on an impossible task and take a statistical look at how Jay Cutler (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CutlJa00.htm) ranks among other QBs.

And when I say how Jay Cutler (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CutlJa00.htm) ranks, I mean how Jay Cutler (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CutlJa00.htm) 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and so on, ranks. And thatís why itís an impossible task. I canít predict what will happen in three years. You canít predict what will happen in four years. We wonít know how good Cutler is over the next five years until five years from now. Itís all a guessing game, but that doesnít mean we canít refine our guessing. There are obvious and not so obvious flaws in the approach Iím about to outline, and Iíll do my best to explain them.

What Iím trying to figure out is how valuable is Jay Cutler (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CutlJa00.htm), the commodty, in March 2009? For example, we know weíd rather have Cutler than Tarvaris Jackson (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackTa00.htm) and weíd rather have a 26 year old Peyton Manning (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm) than a 26 year old Jay Cutler (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CutlJa00.htm). But to determine his value ó his trade value, if youíre a Broncos fan ó you need to know what heíll do in the future. And as Yogi Berra once said, itís tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Consider:


At the end of the 1970 season, Billy Kilmer (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KilmBi00.htm) was 31 years old and had just 11 career wins to his name. In 1970, he threw 6 TDs and 17 INTs. Who would have guessed he would have been one of the best QBs in the NFL over the next half-decade?



At the end of the 1995 season, Rich Gannon (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GannRi00.htm) was 30 years old and had started just four games over the past three years. Who would have guessed that he would make four Pro Bowls over the next seven seasons?



Stop me if youíve heard this one. QB is drafted 330th overall. He throws 1 TD and 7 INT his rookie season. He throws 1 TD and 3 INT and has an 0-2 record his sophomore season. You probably wouldnít think heíd still be in the league five years after that, but in his seventh season Brian Sipe (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SipeBr00.htm) was named a first team All Pro.



Kurt Warner (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WarnKu00.htm). Tom Brady (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00.htm).

This goes the other way, too, of course.


Archie Manning (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannAr00.htm) struggled early in his career, but the #1 pick was very good at ages 29, 30 and 31. Who would project him to throw 15 TD and 30 INT the rest of his career?



Daunte Culpepper (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CulpDa00.htm), at age 27, had the most total yards in NFL history (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=316). Then he became Daunte Culpepper (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CulpDa00.htm). And yes, I know he lost Randy Moss (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MossRa00.htm) and battled injuries.



Mark Rypien (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RypiMa00.htm) won a Super Bowl and had one of the better seasons in passing history in 1991. He was just 29 years old. He never came close to duplicating that success.



Greg Landry (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LandGr00.htm) was a first round pick who had big years as a runner and passer in 1971 and 1972. He was 26 years old in March 1973, and he may have been the single best QB prospect in the NFL at that time. When you consider his rushing, heíd been more productive than Manning or Bradshaw or Griese, he was younger than Tarkenton and Namath, and he had a better pedigree than Ken Anderson (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Ken+Anderson). Landry stuck around for awhile but there were about 15 QBs who outperformed him from that moment on.



Steve Bartkowski (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BartSt00.htm) was a former number 1 pick who made the Pro Bowl in Ď80 and Ď81 and had an incredible 22 TD/5 INT ratio in 1983. He was 31 years old, but he threw for fewer than 4,000 yards the rest of his career.

None of this is breaking news; we all know itís difficult to predict one year down the road, let alone five or ten. But itís important to set the stage before we answer the key question: if you could have any QB in the NFL right now, for your favorite team, who would you pick? Can statistics and past history guide us?

There are a ton of factors that you would want to use to predict future QB success, but there are three that seem most prominent: age, past production and draft value. Unfortunately, each of these are complicated variables and require a full description, but first, let me describe how we measure future QB success. If you hate reading the details, skip to the end for the QB list. [author's methods in next post]

Here are the top 25 projected QBs going forward in the NFL as of March 2009, but using only QBs who had 200+ attempts in 2008. The age is how old the player was during the 2008 season.

08Val Age AgeV DraftV 3YrVal Proj Rk Name
2157 29 537 11.8 1861 5049 1 Drew Brees (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BreeDr00.htm)
1245 23 552 59.4 1245 5009 2 Matt Ryan (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RyanMa00.htm)
1919 27 581 33.5 1429 4829 3 Philip Rivers (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RivePh00.htm)
1495 25 591 34.4 1169 4277 4 Jay Cutler (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CutlJa00.htm)
1501 32 430 7.3 1702 4096 5 Peyton Manning (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm)
1217 28 563 1.5 1372 3699 6 Tony Romo (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RomoTo00.htm)
875 27 581 43.9 648 3270 7 Eli Manning (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannEl00.htm)
484 23 552 73.2 288 3127 8 JaMarcus Russell (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RussJa00.htm)
492 26 591 30.1 727 3106 9 Ben Roethlisberger (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoetBe00.htm)
1422 25 591 26.6 733 3016 10 Aaron Rodgers (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RodgAa00.htm)
1234 32 430 6.4 1205 2889 11 Donovan McNabb (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McNaDo00.htm)
477 23 552 36.8 477 2538 12 Joe Flacco (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FlacJo00.htm)
731 27 581 19.6 614 2495 13 Jason Campbell (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CampJa00.htm)
1030 27 581 9.9 728 2489 14 Matt Schaub (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SchaMa00.htm)
1721 37 254 0.3 1305 2207 15 Kurt Warner (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WarnKu00.htm)
645 30 505 4.3 801 2179 16 David Garrard (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GarrDa00.htm)
1477 32 430 3.7 925 2143 17 Chad Pennington (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PennCh01.htm)
663 25 591 13.0 490 2050 18 Trent Edwards (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/EdwaTr01.htm)
1013 26 591 3.4 495 1789 19 Matt Cassel (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CassMa00.htm)
74 25 591 4.6 429 1665 20 Derek Anderson (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AndeDe00.htm)
539 26 591 10.2 302 1523 21 Kyle Orton (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/O/OrtoKy00.htm)
1072 33 391 0.3 752 1468 22 Jake Delhomme (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DelhJa00.htm)
553 24 578 4.9 354 1444 23 Tyler Thigpen (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ThigTy00.htm)
528 28 563 1.5 410 1413 24 Shaun Hill (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HillSh00.htm)
462 28 563 7.0 277 1254 25 Seneca Wallace (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WallSe00.htm)

How does that list look to you? This is my best attempt to, using just objective data, figure out which QBs would have the most value either on the open market or through a trade. All three input variables were highly significant, which means they are all certainly correlated to future production. The R^2 was just 0.35, which isnít very high, but Iím not sure if you can come up with a formula to make it any higher. Thereís a ton of randomness in future production, and if 35% of it can be predicted through this formula, thatís pretty good. Before we conclude, let me throw some general thoughts out there on this list:

1) If we ignore Rodgersí 2006 and 2007, and just use last year for his 3YrVal, that would give him a projected score of 4654, and heíd move into 3rd place on the list. Very interesting. Doing the same analysis with Cassel bumps him just north of 3000, where Rodgers currently is.

2) Joe Flaccoís (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FlacJo00.htm) ahead of Kurt Warner (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WarnKu00.htm). That makes some sense to me. Weíre basically projecting one or two big years out of Warner versus eight good years out of Flacco.

3) Matt Ryan (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RyanMa00.htm) (along with Rodgers if we tweak his score) comes in too high, I think. Why? My buddy Maurile would recommend using some sort of Bayesí theorem (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_Theorem) analysis, because being great over a small number of attempts is not as convincing as being great over a large number of attempts. As Iíve currently structured it, three great years will have the same score as one great year, if you only play one year. Usually, thatís not a problem, but when you have the greatest rookie season ever (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=799) (or you edit Rodgersí career), things get dicey. Suffice it to say, while I love Ryan, Iím not convinced just yet that heís mega elite. I love Ryan as much as anyone, but putting him at #2 scares me a little bit.

4) Look over there at JaMarcus Russell (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RussJa00.htm). Heís up there over Big Ben! Two of the three factors point Benís way ó being older actually helps him, since he is entering his prime, and obviously heís already better. The only thing pointing Russellís way is that #1 draft pick status. Is that right or wrong? Hereís how every QB drafted #1 overall since the merger (along with Steve Young (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Steve+Young), a supplemental #1) ranked among QBs in their first two seasons.

RookYr Yr1 Yr2
JaMarcus Russell (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RussJa00.htm) 2007 82 24
Alex Smith (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Alex+Smith) 2005 81 26
Eli Manning (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannEl00.htm) 2004 79 10
Carson Palmer (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PalmCa00.htm) 2003 -- 24
David Carr (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CarrDa00.htm) 2002 84 25
Michael Vick (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/V/VickMi00.htm) 2001 29 5
Tim Couch (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CoucTi00.htm) 1999 35 27
Peyton Manning (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm) 1998 20 3
Drew Bledsoe (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BledDr00.htm) 1993 25 12
Jeff George (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GeorJe00.htm) 1990 36 59
Troy Aikman (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AikmTr00.htm) 1989 81 63
Vinny Testaverde (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TestVi00.htm) 1987 49 81
John Elway (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/ElwaJo00.htm) 1983 74 16
Steve Bartkowski (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BartSt00.htm) 1975 23 70
Jim Plunkett (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PlunJi00.htm) 1971 12 68
Terry Bradshaw (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTe00.htm) 1970 65 21
Steve Young (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Steve+Young) 1984 -- 67

Sure, Russell looks bad. But so did Troy Aikman (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AikmTr00.htm). And Vinny Testaverde (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TestVi00.htm). And Terry Bradshaw (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTe00.htm). So did Steve Young (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Steve+Young). John Elway (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/ElwaJo00.htm) wasnít much better. I have to say, itís very counterintuitive to me to suggest that Russell is going to be better than Roethlisberger, going forward. On the other hand, you could probably have made the same argument about Jim Everett (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/EverJi00.htm) and Troy Aikman (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AikmTr00.htm) in March 1991, too. As for Ben and Russell, I think itís at least arguable that Benís statistics understate how good he really is. If his 3YrVal was a bit higher, heíd easily be ahead of Russell and Manning.

5) Notice anyone missing? I donít really know what to do with Brady, but his score after 2007 was 5179. Giving him an extra year of age would drop him to 5008, but we canít ignore that he suffered a serious injury. Who knows how heíll come back, and I donít really know whereís a good place to put him. If heís healthy, though, heís right there up with Brees. Carson Palmer was right behind Brady in 2007, so if heís healthy, heís got to be in the mix, too. If we age him a year based on his Ď07 numbers, heíd project at 4471.

Delano
03-28-2009, 10:39 PM
Continued:


Let me close with a subjective list, using the numbers above as my guide (along with the changes I mentioned above). I wonít try to be so exact, but Iím going to group the top 25 or so QBs in the NFL into tiers.
Build your team around them (6): Drew Brees (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BreeDr00.htm), Tom Brady (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00.htm), Peyton Manning (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm), Philip Rivers (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RivePh00.htm), Jay Cutler (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CutlJa00.htm) and Matt Ryan (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RyanMa00.htm). These six QBs are at their own level, IMO, as no one matches past production and youth the way they do. You build your team around any of these guys, and all would be a good bet to be the NFL MVP in 2009, 2010 or 2011.

Youíre in love (5): Aaron Rodgers (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RodgAa00.htm), Tony Romo (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RomoTo00.htm), Eli Manning (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannEl00.htm), Ben Roethlisberger (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoetBe00.htm), Carson Palmer (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PalmCa00.htm). It wouldnít take you more than a second to find fault with any of these guys. That said, youíve got to feel like you can go to the playoffs anytime in the next five years with this guy at the helm.

I really, really like you (3): JaMarcus Russell (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RussJa00.htm), Donovan McNabb (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McNaDo00.htm), Joe Flacco (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FlacJo00.htm). These guys are a half step below the guys above and a half step above the guys below. Youíre happy with your QB outlook, but youíre not going to puff your chest too much. While Russell hasnít received nearly the praise that Flacco has, Russell put up at least equal numbers last season despite playing for a worse team and despite being eight months younger than Flacco. Warner arguably deserves to be in this group, but I donít think he has enough left in the tank.

You like what youíve got (7): Jason Campbell (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CampJa00.htm), Matt Schaub (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SchaMa00.htm), Kurt Warner (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WarnKu00.htm), David Garrard (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GarrDa00.htm), Chad Pennington (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PennCh01.htm), Trent Edwards (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/EdwaTr01.htm), Matt Cassel (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CassMa00.htm). These guys donít have a lot in common. Warner may be an All Pro next year, but youíre going to be looking for a new QB very soon. Garrard and Pennington have had big years while Schaub and Campbell have shown flashes. Edwards and Cassel are inexperienced but have done okay so far. The whole group is a mixed bag, and if this guy is your QB, you canít even guarantee that heíll be in the league in five years. I suppose a healthy Matt Hasselbeck (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HassMa00.htm) could join this tier, too. Based on just 2008, Warner and Pennington are the obvious class of the group, but both have long histories.

Can I really trade for Jay Cutler (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CutlJa00.htm)? (6): Derek Anderson (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AndeDe00.htm), Kyle Orton (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/O/OrtoKy00.htm), Jake Delhomme (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DelhJa00.htm), Tyler Thigpen (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ThigTy00.htm), Shaun Hill (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HillSh00.htm), Seneca Wallace (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WallSe00.htm). The less said about these guys, the better.

So what do you think? How would you rank the QBs?

StcChief
03-28-2009, 10:41 PM
so it's down to Continental Divide vs. Blvd..... amount of cases to be determined.

wild1
03-28-2009, 10:42 PM
haha. Jamarcus Russell will never be worth a squirt of piss in the NFL

Delano
03-28-2009, 10:44 PM
Methods:

First I calculated each QBís adjusted net yards per attempt (passing yards + 20*TDs - 45*INT - sack yards lost) / (passes + sacks) metric. Then I compared that ratio to ďreplacement levelĒ, defined as 75% of the league average. Then I multiplied the difference between the QBís ANY/A and replacement level by the QBís number of pass attempts plus sacks to get a measure of ďadjusted yards over replacement.Ē Then, I added to that number every adjusted rushing yard (rushing yards + 20*rushTDs) over four yards per carry. So if a QB had 100 carries, 500 yards and 5 TDs, that would be plus 200 adjusted yards. Whether or not this formula is perfect isnít that important ó for what weíre looking for, with hundreds of QBs, something thatís generally correct is all we need. We donít need to know specifically if Troy Aikman (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AikmTr00.htm) was better than Jeff Garcia (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GarcJe00.htm), but just that both were better than Danny Kanell (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KaneDa00.htm) and Bobby Hoying (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HoyiBo00.htm).
Measuring QB success or value in a given year isnít enough, though. We want to know how theyíll do for awhile, although we also want immediate success. To grade QB value for the long term, I took 100% of their production in Year N+1 (2009, for Jay Cutlerís (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CutlJa00.htm) purposes), 95% of their value in N+2, 90% in N+3, and so on, for 8 seasons. This will thus reward great immediate production and sustained levels of strong play. This weighted measure of eight years of production will be the output variable in our regression formula. Not surprisingly, Manning in March 2000 (the year he turned 24) and Marino in March 1984 (the year he turned 23) come out as the top two scores.
Age:: The effects of age are obviously nonlinear; going from age 23 to 24 is good; going from 35 to 36 is bad. I looked at the top 50 QBs (based on NFL production, using something similar to the metric I used in the Greatest QB Ever (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=547) series) drafted since 1970, that are no longer active, to determine the general ďdropoffĒ rate for a QB. Here are the results:

21 12.4
22 34.6
23 53.1
24 68.1
25 79.9
26 88.8
27 94.9
28 98.5
29 100.0
30 99.5
31 97.3
32 93.7
33 88.9
34 83.2
35 76.8
36 69.9
37 62.9
38 56.0
39 49.4
40 43.4
41 38.3
42 34.2
</pre> This shouldnít be too controversial; it says that QBs peak from ages 28-31, and a QB at 36 is about as good as a QB at age 24. However, we canít just use these numbers as the inputs in the regression formula because weíre trying to predict a weighted value of eight years worth of scores. So the value of being 24 corresponds to 100% of the value of being 25, plus 95% of the value of being 26, and so on. Here are those numbers:

21 12.4 452
22 34.6 510
23 53.1 552
24 68.1 578
25 79.9 591
26 88.8 591
27 94.9 581
28 98.5 563
29 100.0 537
30 99.5 505
31 97.3 469
32 93.7 430
33 88.9 391
34 83.2 352
35 76.8 315
36 69.9 282
37 62.9 254
38 56.0 225
39 49.4 196
40 43.4 172
41 38.3 151
42 34.2 132
</pre> Therefore, the ideal range of ages where your average QB has his best days ahead of him is somewhere between 24 and 27 years. And that makes a lot of sense. And whereas the table above said being 36 was slightly better than being 24, now being 24 is much better than being 36. And that makes sense, too.

Delano
03-28-2009, 10:45 PM
Finally: Methods Continued:

Past Production: I used the same formula to measuring past production as I did for measuring future production; adjusted net yards added over replacement value. However, I didnít want to limit myself to 2008, so I used a weighted average of the last three years. So for Philip Rivers (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RivePh00.htm), he gets 3*2008_value plus 2*2007_value plus 2006_value, all divided by six. For JaMarcus Russell (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RussJa00.htm), he gets 2*2008_value plus 2007_value, divided by three. For Matt Ryan (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RyanMa00.htm), he simply gets his 2008 value. This becomes a little unfair for someone like Aaron Rodgers (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RodgAa00.htm), who is treated like a star in 2008 and a nothing in Ď07 and Ď06. Thatís not an accurate portrayal of what happened, but we can tweak that later.
Draft Value: I used the numbers here (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=527) to assign a value to each slot in the draft. I feel really comfortable with those values, but thereís one big problem: a playerís draft value is really important when theyíre young but not very important when theyíre old. I made some rough, back of the envelope calculations as to a good multiplier for draft value at each age:

22 1.0
23 1.0
24 0.9
25 0.8
26 0.7
27 0.6
28 0.5
29 0.4
30 0.3
31 0.2
32 0.1
33 0.1
34 0.1
35 0.1
36 0.1
37 0.1
38 0.1
39 0.1
40 0.1
</pre> This just quantifies what my gut says, although I have no idea how accurate it really is. Deriving a good formula for this could be a whole separate blog post, so Iím going to put that off for another day. So I simply multiplied each playerís draft value (as derived in that (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=527) post) times their multiplier based on age. Thereís a problem with this, though: it makes the ďdraft valueĒ variable for a 31 year old Brett Favre (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FavrBr00.htm) equal to the draft value variable for a 24 year old Tom Brady (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00.htm). Thatís beacuse Favreís an old guy that used to be a high pick and Bradyís a young guy who is a low pick. Thatís what I ended up doing, but I donít love it. Unfortunately, Iím not sure if thereís a better way ó using regression analysis ó to handle this.
If youíve made it this far, the payoff is about to come. We now have our input variables ó an age variable, a draft value variable that decreases over time, and a past production variable. The output is a weighted average of performance over the next eight seasons. Whatís our dataset? Every QB who entered the league since the merger, but excluding all player-seasons since 2003 and any QB born after 1977. Further, I only looked at player-seasons with at least 200 pass attempts.
Whatís the formula that best fits that curve? It wonít mean much to you, but here it is:
-1972 + 4.21*age + 28.6*draft + 2.38*pastproduction

Delano
03-28-2009, 10:46 PM
haha. Jamarcus Russell will never be worth a squirt of piss in the NFL

I agree.

DaFace
03-28-2009, 10:49 PM
Is there a cliffs notes version?

Sam Hall
03-28-2009, 10:59 PM
he's back for another off-season update

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KCrockaholic
03-28-2009, 11:37 PM
he's back for another off-season update

<object width="480" height="295"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/uQ8EbKwbmVw&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/uQ8EbKwbmVw&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="295"></embed></object>

retarded kids love to post youtube videos nonstop. Its a fact.

DrRyan
03-28-2009, 11:40 PM
he's back for another off-season update

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That is hysterical. I could use a laugh like that on a daily basis. Bookmarking this link for future reference!

Bob Dole
03-29-2009, 07:38 AM
Is there a cliffs notes version?

A guy with a career losing record is the 4th most valuable QB in the league.
ROFL

bdeg
03-29-2009, 07:45 AM
I'm working my way through this...

"The R^2 was just 0.35, which isn’t very high, but I’m not sure if you can come up with a formula to make it any higher. "

That's terrible.

"Whether or not this formula is perfect isn’t that important — for what we’re looking for, with hundreds of QBs, something that’s generally correct is all we need. We don’t need to know specifically if Troy Aikman was better than Jeff Garcia, but just that both were better than Danny Kanell and Bobby Hoying."

Guy sets the bar pretty high, huh?
If he wanted it to make sense, why is he simply devaluing each QB's play next year by 5% continually? He should run a regression and find out exactly what impact every age has on a QB's change in efficiency.--I didn't read far enough, it sounds like he did this? not clear
I haven't gotten to the methods yet, but I think this thing is flawed from the start. I think you HAVE to find a way to account for the offense a guy has around him. see Philip Rivers

That whole part about draft value is just dumb. It doesn't make sense at all and he just made it up and stuck it in there. At least he admits it, though. Shockingly, according to their final equation they found draft value to have the MOST impact. I think that's just because the rest of it is so flawed. Since their formulas don't line up, obviously NFL teams will do a decent job of guessing how players will do.

Mile High Mania
03-29-2009, 07:48 AM
I tried, but I can't fight through that one...

wild1
03-29-2009, 07:58 AM
A guy with a career losing record is the 4th most valuable QB in the league.
ROFL

thanks i didn't have an hour to read it.

not that i would have after i saw Russell ranked above Roethlisberger

Von Dumbass
03-29-2009, 08:19 AM
A guy with a career losing record is the 4th most valuable QB in the league.
ROFL

I bet the Colts and the Cowboys are glad they didn't give up on Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman when they put up 3-13 and 1-15 records their rookie year.

KCUnited
03-29-2009, 08:25 AM
Jay McCutler!

Bob Dole
03-29-2009, 08:30 AM
I bet the Colts and the Cowboys are glad they didn't give up on Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman when they put up 3-13 and 1-15 records their rookie year.

Are you seriously comparing Cutler to Manning and Aikman???

Jesus Christ in a chicken basket. :shake:

Von Dumbass
03-29-2009, 09:16 AM
Are you seriously comparing Cutler to Manning and Aikman???

Jesus Christ in a chicken basket. :shake:
I'm just saying that it isn't Cutler's fault his team is losing. If we didn't have Cutler the past 2 years we would be 2-14 every year like the Chiefs and the Raiders are.

Jay Cutler was 3rd all time in rookie QB Rating behind...

1. Ben Roethlisberger
2. Dan Marino.

Mike Martz has said that he thinks Cutler can be better than Peyton Manning.

milkman
03-29-2009, 09:21 AM
I can't read through this formula for the projections here, but any formula that projects JaMarcus Russell 10 QB going forward, and has Ben Roethlisberger (among others) behind him is clearly a ****ed up formula.

RNR
03-29-2009, 09:27 AM
Mike Martz has said that he thinks Cutler can be better than Peyton Manning.
FWIW I do not.

Saul Good
03-29-2009, 09:35 AM
Is there a cliffs notes version?

Chad Pennington will be more valuable over the next 5 years than Matt Cassel.

RNR
03-29-2009, 09:38 AM
Chad Pennington will be more valuable over the next 5 years than Matt Cassel.

That is not that huge of a reach

Saul Good
03-29-2009, 09:38 AM
Mike Martz has said that he thinks Cutler can be better than Peyton Manning.

My dog has left tightly coiled packages on the lawn that MIGHT be better NFL QBs than Peyton Manning.

DaFace
03-29-2009, 09:46 AM
I'm just saying that it isn't Cutler's fault his team is losing. If we didn't have Cutler the past 2 years we would be 2-14 every year like the Chiefs and the Raiders are.

Jay Cutler was 3rd all time in rookie QB Rating behind...

1. Ben Roethlisberger
2. Dan Marino.

Mike Martz has said that he thinks Cutler can be better than Peyton Manning.

So, out of curiosity, do you agree with the article's assessment that Jamarcus Russell will be one of the league's elite soon?

RNR
03-29-2009, 09:51 AM
So, out of curiosity, do you agree with the article's assessment that Jamarcus Russell will be one of the league's elite soon?
So far all he has done is cash checks like one of the league's elite QBs :cuss:

alanm
03-29-2009, 09:54 AM
retarded kids love to post youtube videos nonstop. Its a fact.By the poster on his wall it would seem he's a Colorado St. fan. He seems more like the typical Buffalo fan.
j/k

alanm
03-29-2009, 09:57 AM
I'm just saying that it isn't Cutler's fault his team is losing. If we didn't have Cutler the past 2 years we would be 2-14 every year like the Chiefs and the Raiders are.

Jay Cutler was 3rd all time in rookie QB Rating behind...

1. Ben Roethlisberger
2. Dan Marino.

Mike Martz has said that he thinks Cutler can be better than Peyton Manning.You're apparently not factoring in the maturity and commitment factor. :shake:

DTLB58
03-29-2009, 09:59 AM
I'm just saying that it isn't Cutler's fault his team is losing. If we didn't have Cutler the past 2 years we would be 2-14 every year like the Chiefs and the Raiders are.

Jay Cutler was 3rd all time in rookie QB Rating behind...

1. Ben Roethlisberger
2. Dan Marino.

Mike Martz has said that he thinks Cutler can be better than Peyton Manning.

All the opinions and statistics in the world don't matter.

There's only one thing that does and that's W's and so far Cutler has a losing record.

You are what you are-Bill Parcells

Chief Roundup
03-29-2009, 10:33 AM
Cutler is worth less than when or where he was drafted.

Von Dumbass
03-29-2009, 10:53 AM
So, out of curiosity, do you agree with the article's assessment that Jamarcus Russell will be one of the league's elite soon?

I only read the first paragraph of that article, but if it said that Russell will be an elite QB their system is flawed. Jamarcus is a bust in my book.

Von Dumbass
03-29-2009, 10:59 AM
All the opinions and statistics in the world don't matter.

There's only one thing that does and that's W's and so far Cutler has a losing record.

You are what you are-Bill Parcells

Cutler has only played in 37 games so far in his career. His defense has given up 30 or more points 15 times and he is 3-12 in those games. In Peyton Manning's career when his defense gives up 30 or more points he is 6-22, Elway was 6-31.

When Cutler's defense gives up fewer than 23 points he is 11-1. Give Cutler an average defense and Denver will be in the playoffs every single year.

Saul Good
03-29-2009, 11:06 AM
Cutler has only played in 37 games so far in his career. His defense has given up 30 or more points 15 times and he is 3-12 in those games. In Peyton Manning's career when his defense gives up 30 or more points he is 6-22, Elway was 6-31.

When Cutler's defense gives up fewer than 23 points he is 11-1. Give Cutler an average defense and Denver will be in the playoffs every single year.

Maybe the fact that he was second in the NFL in INTs played a role in all of the points that they gave up.

Von Dumbass
03-29-2009, 11:18 AM
Maybe the fact that he was second in the NFL in INTs played a role in all of the points that they gave up.

Cutler threw the ball more than 600 times last year. Throwing 1 INT per every 32 passes is not bad at all considering that the defenses knew we had to pass the ball because we had zero healthy running backs.

Saul Good
03-29-2009, 11:45 AM
Cutler threw the ball more than 600 times last year. Throwing 1 INT per every 32 passes is not bad at all considering that the defenses knew we had to pass the ball because we had zero healthy running backs.

There's a stat that takes all of those things into account. It's called QB rating. Cutler was 16th in the NFL. He's a middle of the pack QB with a middle of the pack record to show for it.

Factor in his attitude and his health issues, and he's certainly not the next great NFL QB. You want to compare him to Elway, Aikman, Manning, and Marino as if Cutler is a rookie. He's not. Look at what those players had accomplished by the end of their fourth seasons in the league. These players had Superbowls, MVPs, and passing records under their belts by then. What does Cutler have to hang his hat on?

BigRock
03-29-2009, 11:48 AM
Jay Cutler was 3rd all time in rookie QB Rating behind...

1. Ben Roethlisberger
2. Dan Marino.

Ben and Marino played in 10+ games as rookies. Cutler played in 5.

Saul Good
03-29-2009, 11:59 AM
Ben and Marino played in 10+ games as rookies. Cutler played in 5.

Why the compulsion to put stats into context? Louis Aguiar may be the best passer of all time. Check out his career passer rating.

King_Chief_Fan
03-29-2009, 12:16 PM
To the Chiefs, Cutler has no more value than Cassel had when acquired.
You shouldn't have to give more than a #34 choice and receive a LB to get him. Tell me what he has done for that team he plays on? (here comes the if he had a defense crowd)

ChiefsCountry
03-29-2009, 12:17 PM
Cutler is like how we view Horseface. Our judgement is a little blurred bc he is a member of Donks. He is a pretty good QB, sort of like how Favre was when he was younger. Hot head, gunslinger. Donks have no talent like us save a few positions yet they were in the hunt with Cutler. McDaniels is just following the stupid formula all of the Parcells fags use bring your own guys to get to 10-6.

milkman
03-29-2009, 12:18 PM
There's a stat that takes all of those things into account. It's called QB rating. Cutler was 16th in the NFL. He's a middle of the pack QB with a middle of the pack record to show for it.

Factor in his attitude and his health issues, and he's certainly not the next great NFL QB. You want to compare him to Elway, Aikman, Manning, and Marino as if Cutler is a rookie. He's not. Look at what those players had accomplished by the end of their fourth seasons in the league. These players had Superbowls, MVPs, and passing records under their belts by then. What does Cutler have to hang his hat on?

QB passer rating, along with team wins and losses are the most overrated stats used in evaluating a QB.

I'm not researching it, but I'd bet that Elway's QB rating was pretty mediocre for his career prior to the arrival of Mike Shanahan as head coach in Denver.

I'm also pretty sure that Steve Bono at point in his career after a couple of seasons as the Chiefs QB had the highest winning percentage among active QBs.

Anyone think that Elway wasn't one of the best QBs in the league, or that Bono was the best?

Saul Good
03-29-2009, 12:26 PM
QB passer rating, along with team wins and losses are the most overrated stats used in evaluating a QB.

I'm not researching it, but I'd bet that Elway's QB rating was pretty mediocre for his career prior to the arrival of Mike Shanahan as head coach in Denver.

I'm not researching it, but I'd bet that Elway won more Superbowls with Shanahan than he did prior to Shanahan.

Mile High Mania
03-29-2009, 12:33 PM
I think you both have done well in supporting Cutler... until a "team" is built around him on both sides of the ball, the Broncos won't do much in the post season. Congrats.

Saul Good
03-29-2009, 12:44 PM
I think you both have done well in supporting Cutler... until a "team" is built around him on both sides of the ball, the Broncos won't do much in the post season. Congrats.

Having a team built around him isn't going to help Denver if that team isn't wearing purple and orange.

milkman
03-29-2009, 12:48 PM
I'm not researching it, but I'd bet that Elway won more Superbowls with Shanahan than he did prior to Shanahan.

Amazing how the fact that Shanahan finally got talent elsewhere on that team, both on offense and defense, improved Elway's rating and ability to win in the playoffs and SB.

Those first three teams that Elway guided to the SB had no business getting there.

Bwana
03-29-2009, 12:55 PM
Mike Martz has said that he thinks Cutler can be better than Peyton Manning.

ROFL

I think its time for the NFL to drug test Martz, because he's on some good shit.

Saul Good
03-29-2009, 12:55 PM
Those first three teams that Elway guided to the SB had no business getting there.

Yet Elway got them there not once, not twice, but three times. How does that, in any way, resemble what Cutler has accomplished?

milkman
03-29-2009, 01:06 PM
Yet Elway got them there not once, not twice, but three times. How does that, in any way, resemble what Cutler has accomplished?

I am not comparing the two.

I cited Elway to illustrate my point that QB rating is overrated.

As I said, I am not researching it, but I'm pretty sure that Elway was around 79-80 QB rating before Shanahan.

Mile High Mania
03-29-2009, 01:14 PM
Yet Elway got them there not once, not twice, but three times. How does that, in any way, resemble what Cutler has accomplished?

There's no comparing the two...

But, I'm on the side of the argument that says you can't blame a QB for all the losses, esp with the DEF they've had. But, don't let that distract you.

Saul Good
03-29-2009, 01:16 PM
I am not comparing the two.

I cited Elway to illustrate my point that QB rating is overrated.

As I said, I am not researching it, but I'm pretty sure that Elway was around 79-80 QB rating before Shanahan.

You also said that team wins and losses are overrated. You didn't mention that he retired as the winningest QB in history.

Cutler has a very mediocre career record. He has a very mediocre QB rating. His team gives up a lot of points, but he doesn't exactly help the cause by tossing out INTs like beads at Mardi Gras.

RNR
03-29-2009, 01:20 PM
There's no comparing the two...

But, I'm on the side of the argument that says you can't blame a QB for all the losses, esp with the DEF they've had. But, don't let that distract you.
True but that defense allowed him a lot of junk time against the dime to pad stats.

Delano
03-29-2009, 01:23 PM
I am not comparing the two.

I cited Elway to illustrate my point that QB rating is overrated.

As I said, I am not researching it, but I'm pretty sure that Elway was around 79-80 QB rating before Shanahan.

Elway's QB Rating with Shanny as QB Coach

1984 - 380 attempts - 76.8
1985 - 605 attempts - 70.2

1989 - 416 attempts - 73.7
1990 - 502 attempts - 78.5
1991 - 451 attempts - 75.4

Elway's QB Rating with Shanny as OC

1986 - 504 attempts - 79.0
1987 - 410 attempts - 83.4

Elway's QB Rating with Shanny as HC

1995 - 542 attempts - 86.4
1996 - 466 attempts - 89.2
1997 - 502 attempts - 87.5
1998 - 356 attempts - 93.0

Elway without Shanny

1983 - 259 attempts - 54.9

1988 - 496 attempts - 71.4

1992 - 316 attempts - 65.7
1993 - 551 attempts - 92.8
1994 - 494 attempts - 85.7

Mile High Mania
03-29-2009, 01:25 PM
You also said that team wins and losses are overrated. You didn't mention that he retired as the winningest QB in history.

Cutler has a very mediocre career record. He has a very mediocre QB rating. His team gives up a lot of points, but he doesn't exactly help the cause by tossing out INTs like beads at Mardi Gras.

Actually, if you're going to focus on his INTs... look at the INT ratio ... it's actually pretty good, IIRC. I believe only 3 QBs threw made more than 600 attempts last year, he was one of them.

The team went through 8 RBs and had a defense that couldn't stop anyone... I'm not going to blame any QB for having a lot of INTs in that scenario.

Mile High Mania
03-29-2009, 01:26 PM
True but that defense allowed him a lot of junk time against the dime to pad stats.

Weird.

RNR
03-29-2009, 01:30 PM
Actually, if you're going to focus on his INTs... look at the INT ratio ... it's actually pretty good, IIRC. I believe only 3 QBs threw made more than 600 attempts last year, he was one of them.

The team went through 8 RBs and had a defense that couldn't stop anyone... I'm not going to blame any QB for having a lot of INTs in that scenario.

Would you concede that playing against the prevent often may have assisted his stats some?

RNR
03-29-2009, 01:46 PM
Weird.

I find no reply weird, the first time I guessed you did not understand the lingo the second time...................

Saul Good
03-29-2009, 02:47 PM
Actually, if you're going to focus on his INTs... look at the INT ratio ... it's actually pretty good, IIRC. I believe only 3 QBs threw made more than 600 attempts last year, he was one of them.

The team went through 8 RBs and had a defense that couldn't stop anyone... I'm not going to blame any QB for having a lot of INTs in that scenario.

Then try comparing his TD to INT ratio. It's about 4:3. Not very good at all.

milkman
03-29-2009, 03:05 PM
You also said that team wins and losses are overrated. You didn't mention that he retired as the winningest QB in history.

Cutler has a very mediocre career record. He has a very mediocre QB rating. His team gives up a lot of points, but he doesn't exactly help the cause by tossing out INTs like beads at Mardi Gras.

I used Steve Bono as an example to illustrate how wins can be overrrated in evaluating a QB.

Saul Good
03-29-2009, 03:09 PM
I used Steve Bono as an example to illustrate how wins can be overrrated in evaluating a QB.

Where does Bono rank on the all time wins list? I know Elway's record was broken, but I don't think Bono was the one who broke it. I'm not going to look it up, though.

It's fair to say that a great QB may not always have a great record. It's fair to say that a great QB may not always have a great QB rating. If a QB doesn't have either, he probably isn't great. If both are mediocre, it's because the QB is mediocre more often than not.

DTLB58
03-29-2009, 03:13 PM
Actually, it's just like anything for sale. It's only worth what someone is willing to give you.

You can think up all of these formulas you want, but who would have thunk we would have got Cassel (and another player) for a 2nd round pick?

I hope he gets traded to a team that hires Herm as H.C. and he finishes his career a loser just as he has started it. :D

The guy needs to shut his pie hole,grow up and get with the program. He has a young Offensive minded H.C. and good young offensive talent surrounding him not to mention a good owner.

I'm sure there are QB's in the NFL that would trade places with him in a heartbeat.

bdeg
03-29-2009, 03:14 PM
I'd love to see a regression calculating the impact of "opposing QB's passes hurried/total passes against team" on a team's overall defensive ranking.

I bet that r-squared is over .6

milkman
03-29-2009, 03:17 PM
Where does Bono rank on the all time wins list? I know Elway's record was broken, but I don't think Bono was the one who broke it. I'm not going to look it up, though.

It's fair to say that a great QB may not always have a great record. It's fair to say that a great QB may not always have a great QB rating. If a QB doesn't have either, he probably isn't great. If both are mediocre, it's because the QB is mediocre more often than not.

I am not arguing that Cutler is great.

I am only arguing that QB rating is overarrated, as is a QB's W-L record.

I don't like Cutler because he is immature on the field, which isn't a quality that you find in a team leader.

This whole offseason fiasco only further supports the opinion that he lacks maturity.

Buck
03-30-2009, 04:58 PM
LOL

Jethopper
03-30-2009, 05:48 PM
I am not arguing that Cutler is great.

I am only arguing that QB rating is overarrated, as is a QB's W-L record.


Actually a QB's W - L record is the ONLY thing that matters.

bdeg
03-30-2009, 05:56 PM
Actually a QB's W - L record is the ONLY thing that matters.
We're talking about evaluating players here.

You'd take Kerry Collins over Cutler/most QBs?