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Raised On Riots
05-07-2009, 06:49 PM
Sadly for NFL fans, the draft does not even signify the midway point between the Super Bowl and the start of the next regular season. For two days packed with incessant speculation and unmatched optimism, every football fan gets a fix. And for fans of every team, hope springs that maybe these few new players can make the difference. Then, we wait for four months until kickoffs count.
At WhatIfSports.com (http://www.whatifsports.com/), it's a little different. Draft day signifies the beginning of one of our busiest times of the year as we work on our comprehensive, full-season preview. For the preview, we project stats for every single player and team in the league by simulating each game on the schedule 10,000 times. Coming up with statistical inputs is relatively easy for veteran players as most tend to play to a predictable performance trend as they age and take on different roles.
Rookies present the biggest challenge. To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factors collegiate performance, role in college, strength of collegiate competition, "measurables," likely NFL role, previous performance of a similar player in that NFL role for this coaching staff and trends of similar rookies in the past. This gives us the player's projected ratio stats (expected yards per carry, completion percentage, etc.), as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming season. From there, we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his new NFL team in his first year. The Top 100 from this ranking are listed below.
We have done pretty well with this approach. Leading into the 2008 season. Last season's ranking is located here (http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20080505b). As you can see, not only did this methodology correctly rank first round draft choices like Jonathan Stewart, Jerod Mayo, Jake Long and Sedrick Ellis among the top ten, it helped to point out some steals like Steve Slaton, Charles Godfrey, Matt Forte, Trevor Scott, Jamaal Charles and Cliff Avril.
Clearly, it is easier for some players at some positions to come in and make a positive impact in the first year. Typically, these positions include wide receiver and inside linebacker, where the stats rack up with playing time. For 2009, we are ranking 12 wide receivers among the Top 100 impact rookies. Four of them are in the top ten. Six of the eight inside linebackers drafted also appear on this list.
Based on these rankings, with six Top 100 rookies each, Detroit and Buffalo will get the most positive impact from their rookies in 2009. With just one player each in our Top 100 - both first round quarterbacks - Tampa Bay and the New York Jets have the draft classes with the least depth.
Without further ado, numbers 100 11 are:

100. William Moore, S, Atlanta
99. Andre Brown, RB, New York Giants
98. Jaimie Thomas, OL, Indianapolis
97. Terrance Taylor, DT, Indianapolis
96. Nic Harris, LB/S, Buffalo
95. David Johnson, TE, Pittsburgh
94. D.J. Moore, CB, Chicago
93. Patrick Chung, S, New England
92. David Veikune, DE, Cleveland
91. Sen'Derrick Marks, DT, Tennessee
90. Derrick Williams, WR, Detroit
89. Zack Follett, LB, Detroit
88. Victor Harris, CB, Philadelphia
87. Shawn Nelson, TE, Buffalo
86. Lardarius Webb, CB, Baltimore
85. Chris Owens, CB, Atlanta
84. Jared Cook, TE, Tennessee
83. Seth Olsen, OL, Denver
82. Louis Murphy, WR, Oakland
81. Cornelius Ingram, TE, Philadelphia
80. Stanley Arnoux, LB, New Orleans
79. Pat White, WR/QB, Miami
78. Courtney Greene, S, Seattle
77. Travis Beckum, TE, New York Giants
76. Duke Robinson , OL, Carolina
75. Myron Pryor, DT, New England
74. Mike Mickens, CB, Dallas
73. Aaron Maybin, DE, Buffalo
72. Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay
71. Herman Johnson, OL, Arizona
70. Jarett Dillard, WR, Jacksonville
69. Clint Sintim, LB, New York Giants
68. Louis Vasquez, OL, San Diego
67. Andrew Levitre, OL, Buffalo
66. Robert Ayers, DE, Denver
65. Fili Moala, DT, Indianapolis
64. Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Chicago
63. Michael Oher, OL, Baltimore
62. Scott McKillop, LB, San Francisco
61. Robert Henson, LB, Washington
60. Stryker Sulak, DE, Oakland
59. Clay Matthews, LB, Green Bay
58. Vontae Davis, CB, Miami
57. Max Unger, OL, Seattle
56. Paul Kruger, LB, Baltimore
55. Victor Butler, LB, Dallas
54. James Casey, TE, Houston
53. Michael Mitchell, S, Oakland
52. DeAngelo Smith, CB/S, Dallas
51. Ryan Succop, K, Kansas City (Mr. Irrelevant makes the cut!)
50. Darius Butler, CB, New England
49. Michael Johnson, DE, Cincinnati
48. Sherrod Martin, CB, Carolina
47. Kraig Urbik, OL, Pittsburgh
46. Antoine Caldwell, OL, Houston
45. Brian Robiskie, WR, Cleveland
44. Alex Mack, OL, Cleveland
43. Evander Hood, DT, Pittsburgh
42. Lawrence Sidbury, DE, Atlanta
41. Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis
40. Kevin Huber, P, Cincinnati
39. DeAndre Levy, LB, Detroit
38. Everette Brown, DE, Carolina
37. Jonathan Luigs, C, Cincinnati
36. Sean Smith, CB, Miami
35. Jairus Byrd, CB, Buffalo
34. Malcolm Jenkins, CB, New Orleans
33. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit
32. Tyson Jackson, DE, Kansas City :doh!:Ouch.
31. Phil Loadholt, OL, Minnesota
30. Jason Phillips, LB, Baltimore
29. Eben Britton, OL, Jacksonville
28. Rashad Johnson, S, Arizona
27. Eric Wood, OL, Buffalo
26. Eugene Monroe, OL, Jacksonville
25. Larry English, DE/LB, San Diego
24. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia
23. Jarron Gilbert, DT, Chicago
22. LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia
21. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Oakland
20. Connor Barwin, DE, Houston
19. Chris Wells, RB, Arizona
18. Brian Cushing, LB, Houston
17. Rey Maualuga, LB, Cincinnati
16. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver
15. James Laurinaitis, LB, St. Louis
14. B.J. Raji, DT, Green Bay
13. Brian Orakpo, DE, Washington
12. Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis
11. Alphonso Smith, CB, Denver
And now the top ten:

#10: Louis Delmas, S, Detroit
The likely starter over last year's free safety, Kalvin Pearson, former Western Michigan standout, Louis Delmas should be an instant impact player on a team starving for help in the defensive backfield. The Lions only intercepted four passes all of last season. Delmas matched that total in his sophomore and senior seasons, while racking up the tackles for the Broncos. He is a great fit along young, hard-hitting strong safety Daniel Bullocks.
#9: Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
With Plaxico Burress' sudden release and the team's unwillingness to bring back Amani Toomer, Eli Manning needs some help. Nicks, the 6'1", 215-pound receiver out of North Carolina is somewhere in between those previously mentioned receivers. He has great hands like Toomer and projects to a higher yards-per-catch than the retiree, yet lacks Burress' elite size and redzone prowess. By the end of the year, expect Nicks to ultimately win the competition with Dominik Hixon and Steve Smith to be Manning's new favorite target in the passing game.
#8: Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee
Tennessee is another team in desperate need of a go-to wide receiver. The Titans have not had a wideout eclipse 750 yards since Derrick Mason in 2004. In 2008, Justin Gage led the way with 651 yards on just 34 catches. Britt, who has prototypical size and athleticism for the position, should be the long-term answer for the Titans. With an excellent running game and a veteran quarterback, he has a good chance of breaking out this season. In the latter weeks and in the playoffs, look for Britt to become an intimidating weapon for Kerry Collins.
#7: Andre Smith, OL, Cincinnati
Andre Smith is listed here for the same reason he was drafted so early by the Bengals for what he did on the field. The beauty of this analysis is that it is not bias (and does not know what the guy looks like without his shirt on). If a player has "issues" we work those into his playing time projection, but we don't let that impact how is projected to play when he does. Smith is dominant run blocker who warranted Heisman conversation last season and is much closer to being number one on this list than he is to being a bust.
#6: Jason Smith, OL, St. Louis
Jason Smith gets the nod over Andre Smith because he is the better pass blocker. And while Andre's pass blocking ability is closer to Jason's than Jason's run blocking is to Andre's, protecting the quarterback is crucial in the NFL. All signs seem to indicate that Jason Smith is incredibly talented and yet is still improving. That should pay off for the Rams this season and for many years to come.
#5: Aaron Curry, LB, Seattle
Curry is a versatile linebacker who is ready to step in as a starter for the Seahawks in week one. The Wake Forest product has averaged 94 tackles, three sacks and two interceptions per season as a three-year starter in the ACC, making him as ready-made for the NFL as defensive prospects come. Furthermore, while some ultra-productive college defensive players have extreme red flags in their "measureables" that correctly point to deficiencies in their games, Curry possesses great size, speed and strength for the position.
#4: Percy Harvin, WR/RB, Minnesota
Everyone who has seen Harvin run raves about how quickly he can get to full speed and how fast he is with the football. For as impressive as he is to watch, Harvin's numbers are better. Playing against the country's best competition in the SEC, he was always the most dynamic player on the field. Per touch, he has more talent and can bring more to an NFL team than any other rookie. Our projection assumes Harvin is used in a way similar to Reggie Bush (or at least how Bush may be used in a backfield with Adrian Peterson), with 76 rushes, 50 receptions and some return duty.
#3: Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets
Mark Sanchez is better than Matthew Stafford. :eek:ROFLSanchez projects to complete 60% of his passes and an interception per 36 attempts for a typical NFL team. In the same vacuum, Stafford completes 54% of his passes and throws an interception every 29 passes. Stafford is ranked higher because of two things: 1) the Lions will throw the ball more and 2) Calvin Johnson. Sanchez should be solid this season and for several years. Neither of these quarterbacks appear to be consistent Pro Bowlers (New York bias aside), yet Sanchez's bust potential is much lower than Stafford's.
#2: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit
2009 should be significantly better for Detroit with Stafford at the helm than it was in 2008. That being said, there will be a learning curve and Stafford will probably never be great. The rankings of the quarterbacks on this list have more to do with the opportunities to impact the team positively than with talent. We project Sanchez to attempt 97% of the Jets' passes and Stafford to attempt 91% of the Lions'. On total number of plays and touches alone, they would probably both be at the top of the "greatest overall negative impact" list as well.
#1: Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco
Unlike last season, when three players eclipsed the mark, there are no 1,000-yard rushers or receivers projected from this group of rookies. Crabtree is the closest thing and it really would not be a surprise to see him do it. He gets great marks across the board from college performance, to NFL opportunity, to "measurables" and even a successful player (Issac Bruce) in this role last season. The only concerns with this projection would be inconsistency at quarterback Shaun Hill, Damon Huard, Alex Smith and Nate Davis are the options and recent injuries to his feet and ankles.

MoreLemonPledge
05-07-2009, 06:51 PM
Good find.

Tyson Jackson's job isn't to make an impact. If he's doing his job correctly, the average fan will have no idea. They'll just think the LBers are studs.

Dayze
05-07-2009, 06:55 PM
Good find.

Tyson Jackson's job isn't to make an impact. If he's doing his job correctly, the average fan will have no idea. They'll just think the LBers are studs.

I agree; i had this conversation with a buddy of mine; he's (Jackson, not my buddy :D) supposed to chew up blockers, hold ground, maintina the edge on toss/sweep plays etc, for LBs to fill/spill.

any pressue he puts on by squeezing the pocket during passing situations is a bonus.

Fruit Ninja
05-07-2009, 06:55 PM
If he allows our LB's to be studs, i will be very very happy.

DTLB58
05-07-2009, 06:56 PM
Good find.

Tyson Jackson's job isn't to make an impact. If he's doing his job correctly, the average fan will have no idea. They'll just think the LBers are studs.

Might I say it....This. :D

orange
05-07-2009, 06:58 PM
11. Alphonso Smith, CB, Denver

Too bad the discussions ended at #10. I would love to read why they think everybody screaming about this pick is a moron.

MoreLemonPledge
05-07-2009, 07:01 PM
Just realized that Shonn Greene isn't on this list. What a joke. He'll see significant carries this year, T. Jones and Washington be damned.

bdeg
05-07-2009, 07:06 PM
Just realized that Shonn Greene isn't on this list. What a joke. He'll see significant carries this year, T. Jones and Washington be damned.

I noticed the same thing after seeing Donald Brown at 12 and immediately discounted the list

htismaqe
05-07-2009, 07:14 PM
Just realized that Shonn Greene isn't on this list. What a joke. He'll see significant carries this year, T. Jones and Washington be damned.

Sanchez doesn't ever sniff the #3 spot on this list WITHOUT Greene. So you're exactly right.

htismaqe
05-07-2009, 07:15 PM
11. Alphonso Smith, CB, Denver

Too bad the discussions ended at #10. I would love to read why they think everybody screaming about this pick is a moron.

Aren't most of the people screaming about doing so because of what you gave up to get him rather than the player himself?

Raised On Riots
05-07-2009, 07:17 PM
Good find.

Tyson Jackson's job isn't to make an impact. If he's doing his job correctly, the average fan will have no idea. They'll just think the LBers are studs.

I know, I just hated being LAST. :mad:

(32 teams)

orange
05-07-2009, 07:22 PM
Aren't most of the people screaming about doing so because of what you gave up to get him rather than the player himself?

Yes, but...

If he's a first-round player, then he's worth a first-round pick. The fact that they got him with next-year's pick is a bonus in my mind.

Some of these draftniks (McShay, Kiper, etc.) seem to have lost sight of the real goal - get players and win games. Having a hand full of (potential) aces for next year is not the point.

htismaqe
05-07-2009, 07:29 PM
Yes, but...

If he's a first-round player, then he's worth a first-round pick. The fact that they got him with next-year's pick is a bonus in my mind.

Some of these draftniks (McShay, Kiper, etc.) seem to have lost sight of the real goal - get players and win games. Having a hand full of (potential) aces for next year is not the point.

I think there's a good balance that could be struck. I think alot of times NFL teams are TOO concerned about "this year" and they make stupid moves because of it. But you're right, if the guy is a stud, he's a stud, and few people will care what they gave up to get him.

My only point was that this article obviously doesn't put ANY weight on the trade and only on the player, which is probably how it should be.

Rudy lost the toss
05-07-2009, 07:53 PM
6 WRs in the top 24? really?

In the last 2 drafts I believe only 6/19 1st or 2nd round WRs managed 500+ yards in their rookie season. (C. Johnson, A. Gonzalez, D. Bowe, D. Jackson, E. Royal, D. Avery).

And then after the first two rounds.. all I can find is James Jones.

Raised On Riots
05-07-2009, 08:05 PM
I like how Mecca's boy Hakeem Nicks made the top 10. That boy got GLUE for fucking fingers!

veist
05-07-2009, 08:07 PM
This list is hilariously bad, wow. They also have Michael Mitchel at 53 in case you didn't notice lol.

htismaqe
05-07-2009, 08:35 PM
6 WRs in the top 24? really?

In the last 2 drafts I believe only 6/19 1st or 2nd round WRs managed 500+ yards in their rookie season. (C. Johnson, A. Gonzalez, D. Bowe, D. Jackson, E. Royal, D. Avery).

And then after the first two rounds.. all I can find is James Jones.

GREAT point, excellent research.

Pioli Zombie
05-07-2009, 08:35 PM
Awful list. Crabtree #1?
Of course the 2 Gods, Stafford and Sanchez at 2 and 3.

I'm so sick of this offseason.
Posted via Mobile Device

Raised On Riots
05-07-2009, 08:51 PM
Awful list. Crabtree #1?
Of course the 2 Gods, Stafford and Sanchez at 2 and 3.

I'm so sick of this offseason.
Posted via Mobile Device

ROFL:p Hit It!

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the Talking Can
05-07-2009, 09:02 PM
11. Alphonso Smith, CB, Denver

Too bad the discussions ended at #10. I would love to read why they think everybody screaming about this pick is a moron.

because you traded what could easily be a top 15 pick in the first round next year........for a CB........


which is retarded anyway you slice it....teams aren't built around CBs, as Champ Bailey should have made abundantly clear now to non-brain damaged bronco fans....

you might as well have traded next years pick for a guard...

bdeg
05-07-2009, 09:27 PM
i'd say that's exaggerating just a bit

Raised On Riots
05-07-2009, 09:51 PM
(http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/member.php?u=11766)Just Passin' By (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/member.php?u=11766)
Teams take corners in the top half of the first round all the time. Even the well run teams like the Steelers (Burress) will make those picks.

Sorry, I hate it when people do that shit.

Just Passin' By
05-07-2009, 09:55 PM
[URL="http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/member.php?u=11766"]

Sorry, I hate it when people do that shit.

I didn't read his post close enough and screwed up my response so I deleted it. Bringing it back up was a dick move.

BWillie
05-07-2009, 10:00 PM
Just realized that Shonn Greene isn't on this list. What a joke. He'll see significant carries this year, T. Jones and Washington be damned.

This guy is going to be a beast.

Saccopoo
05-07-2009, 10:01 PM
i'd say that's exaggerating just a bit

Not much. Cornerbacks are the most overrated players on the field. Single duty/responsibility (the off chance that they would be used in some blitz package once every seven games doesn't count) players that will, if given time, be beaten by a good quarterback almost every single time.

Shanahan thought that he could spend his money on pro bowl caliber cornerbacks, and that's all he'd need to have to finally beat New England or Indianapolis. Didn't quite work out like that.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, there are only three things that a team needs to give itself a chance to win every game:

1. Good quarterback
2. Protection for said quarterback
3. Pass rush/run defense from the front seven

That's it.

And this list is horrible. I'll be shocked if Stafford takes even 30% of the Lions snaps next season. Dante came into mini-camp in the best shape of his career, and with a complete overhaul of the offense and defense, the Lions would be insane if they threw Stafford behind a line learning on the job. I'm pretty sure that they are going to let Culpepper take the lumps this next season and then shoehorn Stafford into it in '10. However, I do like Austin Collie at #41. Peyton is going to love that dude.

bdeg
05-07-2009, 10:14 PM
"I've said it before and I'll say it again, there are only three things that a team needs to give itself a chance to win every game:

1. Good quarterback
2. Protection for said quarterback
3. Pass rush/run defense from the front seven"

agreed

but the cb position is still significantly more important and a harder to fill role than g, that's why cb's go in the top 15 almost every year and guards don't

the Talking Can
05-07-2009, 10:17 PM
Not much. Cornerbacks are the most overrated players on the field. Single duty/responsibility (the off chance that they would be used in some blitz package once every seven games doesn't count) players that will, if given time, be beaten by a good quarterback almost every single time.

Shanahan thought that he could spend his money on pro bowl caliber cornerbacks, and that's all he'd need to have to finally beat New England or Indianapolis. Didn't quite work out like that.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, there are only three things that a team needs to give itself a chance to win every game:

1. Good quarterback
2. Protection for said quarterback
3. Pass rush/run defense from the front seven

That's it.

And this list is horrible. I'll be shocked if Stafford takes even 30% of the Lions snaps next season. Dante came into mini-camp in the best shape of his career, and with a complete overhaul of the offense and defense, the Lions would be insane if they threw Stafford behind a line learning on the job. I'm pretty sure that they are going to let Culpepper take the lumps this next season and then shoehorn Stafford into it in '10. However, I do like Austin Collie at #41. Peyton is going to love that dude.

everything in the nfl is geared to advantage the offense...safeties are more important than CBs now...

i couldn't name the CBs on the steelers, or the giants last year...but I'm sure neither team traded (or would trade) a future #1 for them


would anyone here have been excited to trade this years #1 for brandon flowers? of course not...christ we got a starting QB for a second rounder, now that's value


I'd trade a pick for the next Ed Reed, but not for the next champ bailey...and this guy is not the next champ bailey

it was stupid, bottom line...

the Talking Can
05-07-2009, 10:18 PM
"I've said it before and I'll say it again, there are only three things that a team needs to give itself a chance to win every game:

1. Good quarterback
2. Protection for said quarterback
3. Pass rush/run defense from the front seven"

agreed

but the cb position is still significantly more important and a harder to fill role than g, that's why cb's go in the top 15 almost every year and guards don't

and this guy wasn't a top 15 pick, obviously...spending a 2nd and a future first is crazy...

Raised On Riots
05-07-2009, 10:22 PM
I didn't read his post close enough and screwed up my response so I deleted it. Bringing it back up was a dick move.

You're right, I'm sorry. There's been like a dozen of those in my mailbox today though; you just ended up being the recipient at the end of the trail.

bdeg
05-07-2009, 10:23 PM
i completely agree, my only point was that cb>g

Saccopoo
05-07-2009, 10:31 PM
everything in the nfl is geared to advantage the offense...safeties are more important than CBs now...

i couldn't name the CBs on the steelers, or the giants last year...but I'm sure neither team traded (or would trade) a future #1 for them


would anyone here have been excited to trade this years #1 for brandon flowers? of course not...christ we got a starting QB for a second rounder, now that's value


I'd trade a pick for the next Ed Reed, but not for the next champ bailey...and this guy is not the next champ bailey

it was stupid, bottom line...


I think Smith is going to be a good player. Has a nice nose for the ball. However, a few things:

#1. He's a cornerback.
#2. He's a 5'8" cornerback.
#3. 5'8" cornerbacks are not the #1 cornerback for any team in the NFL these days regardless of how good they might be.
#4. The Doncos already have Champ Bailey, and had whatshisnuts from Detroit, and it didn't make any difference.

The Doncs wasted a first round pick on a guy who will never be a #1 corner, and will have to make his mark on special teams and dime formations.

McDaniels won't make it through the '09 season in Denver. He's screwed up the franchise with the Cutler fiasco, and his draft was deranged. (You don't have but 30 guys on a draft board - ever. I can't possibly imagine the ineptitude that filled the Doncs draft war room during that weekend.) And he hasn't even got on the practice field with the whole team yet. I can't wait to see what happens next. It's Kiffenesque, but with only more ineptitude - if that's even possible.

Saccopoo
05-07-2009, 10:37 PM
i completely agree, my only point was that cb>g

I'd take a Pro Bowl guard over a Pro Bowl cornerback any day of the week. All day long. Good quarterback protection with a quality guard versus, at best, 30% success rate against NFL wide receivers, which is what cornerbacks can look to average. Especially considering how they have been calling the pass interference rule since 2004. No sir. No cornerback for me, especially considering that if the guards give the quarterback the time, the quarterback almost always will beat the corner in todays game no matter how good he is.

Mile High Mania
05-07-2009, 10:43 PM
because you traded what could easily be a top 15 pick in the first round next year........for a CB........


which is retarded anyway you slice it....teams aren't built around CBs, as Champ Bailey should have made abundantly clear now to non-brain damaged bronco fans....

you might as well have traded next years pick for a guard...

Again, if he's worth it... it's wise. Interesting to see him at #11 with all this talk about what they gave up, while the #3 overall pick is.... where? Oh, down in the 30s.

Ok, carry on.

bdeg
05-07-2009, 10:51 PM
I'd take a Pro Bowl guard over a Pro Bowl cornerback any day of the week. All day long. Good quarterback protection with a quality guard versus, at best, 30% success rate against NFL wide receivers, which is what cornerbacks can look to average. Especially considering how they have been calling the pass interference rule since 2004. No sir. No cornerback for me, especially considering that if the guards give the quarterback the time, the quarterback almost always will beat the corner in todays game no matter how good he is.

it'd be a better argument it we were talking about OT's. you talk about a cb's 30% success rate, what percentage of passing plays are rushed by dt's? a stud cb can sometimes free up a safety or other player

as for it being 'the most overrated position', i think that'd have to go to either rb's or wr's at least if we're talking about public perception

Raised On Riots
05-07-2009, 10:51 PM
It's Kiffenesque, but with only more ineptitude - if that's even possible.

I praise the day Alzheimers Davis fired "Mr. Ineptitude" because as I recall, "Mr. Ineptitude" and crew gave us a sound ass-whipping on our own turf.

orange
05-07-2009, 10:55 PM
i couldn't name the CBs on the steelers, or the giants last year...but I'm sure neither team traded (or would trade) a future #1 for them




How about the Arizona Cardinals - NFC CHAMPION ARIZONA CARDINALS that is.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie drafted #16
Antrel Rolle drafted # 8


You mentioned the Giants - Aaron Ross drafted #20
How about the Colts - Marlin Jackson drafted #29
Philadelphia - Lito Sheppard drafted #26

These are by no means all the CBs taken in the first round lately - just a few perennial playoff teams - the kind you say don't draft CBs in the first round. If you want to include San Diego in that group, they've drafted 4 CBs in the first round in the last seven years - Cason, Cromartie, Davis, Jammer.

Just Passin' By
05-07-2009, 10:55 PM
Yes, but...

If he's a first-round player, then he's worth a first-round pick. The fact that they got him with next-year's pick is a bonus in my mind.

Some of these draftniks (McShay, Kiper, etc.) seem to have lost sight of the real goal - get players and win games. Having a hand full of (potential) aces for next year is not the point.

The move was fine:

1.) Teams don't want to pick in the top 7 unless there's an absolutely elite player available, usually a quarterback, because of the financial repercussions. There's not going to be one of those next year, and Goodell has already said that there won't be any rookie cap/scale in place next year.

2.) The Broncos had two first round picks for next season, so it's not as if this is going to keep them completely out of the first round.

3.) That defense was brutal last year and it needs help as soon as possible. Getting Smith now means that even if he's not really ready to contribute until next year, the Broncos will still be ahead of the game.

Hell, I've read some Broncos boards and, even with taking Smith, people are still bitching that the Broncos didn't take enough defensive players. I wouldn't let it get to you. Denver's going to have a nice offense, The special teams should be much better, and the defense should be improved. The problem for that team, like the rest of the AFC West, is going to be the schedule.

Saccopoo
05-07-2009, 11:11 PM
The move was fine:

*deletes excessive verbage*

...Denver's going to have a nice offense, The special teams should be much better, and the defense should be improved. The problem for that team, like the rest of the AFC West, is going to be the schedule.

Um...really?

Offense:

1. Kyle Orton. The guy that couldn't beat out Rex Grossman.

2. Another rookie running back.

3. A first year head coach who hasn't shown the best decision making capabilities and the season hasn't started yet.

4. A four game, and more likely, eight game and beyond suspension of Brandon Marshall.

Defense:

1. 5'8" CB Smith and one year only production from college DE Ayers? And that's their saving grace?

2. Have you actually seen the Broncos linebacking corps? Yikes.

3. Defensive line. See item #2, only with more of an emphasis on "yikes."

4. Mike Nolan is the Doncs defensive coordinator. Wow. Yikes squared. Cubed. Then factored exponentially.

Special Teams:

1. See offense and defense for a list of players that aren't good enough to be starters for said offense and defense and then try to imagine a special teams that is even remotely decent. It can't be done.

Doncos are the worst team in football next season. Easily eclipsing last years cellar dwellers the Lions, Chiefs and Rams.

Raised On Riots
05-07-2009, 11:20 PM
Um...really?

Offense:

1. Kyle Orton. The guy that couldn't beat out Rex Grossman.

2. Another rookie running back.

3. A first year head coach who hasn't shown the best decision making capabilities and the season hasn't started yet.

4. A four game, and more likely, eight game and beyond suspension of Brandon Marshall.

Defense:

1. 5'8" CB Smith and one year only production from college DE Ayers? And that's their saving grace?

2. Have you actually seen the Broncos linebacking corps? Yikes.

3. Defensive line. See item #2, only with more of an emphasis on "yikes."

4. Mike Nolan is the Doncs defensive coordinator. Wow. Yikes squared. Cubed. Then factored exponentially.

Special Teams:

1. See offense and defense for a list of players that aren't good enough to be starters for said offense and defense and then try to imagine a special teams that is even remotely decent. It can't be done.

Doncos are the worst team in football next season. Easily eclipsing last years cellar dwellers the Lions, Chiefs and Rams.

I like this. I like it a lot. :fire:

Sure-Oz
05-07-2009, 11:24 PM
If Jackson can make others better im all for it

Just Passin' By
05-07-2009, 11:24 PM
Um...really?

Offense:

1. Kyle Orton. The guy that couldn't beat out Rex Grossman.

Ummm... He DID beat out Rex Grossman.

2. Another rookie running back.

Along with several veterans. Their running game will be excellent.

3. A first year head coach who hasn't shown the best decision making capabilities and the season hasn't started yet.

His decision making has been fine.

4. A four game, and more likely, eight game and beyond suspension of Brandon Marshall.

Not going to happen. The charges were dropped almost immediately.

Defense:

1. 5'8" CB Smith and one year only production from college DE Ayers? And that's their saving grace?

2. Have you actually seen the Broncos linebacking corps? Yikes.

3. Defensive line. See item #2, only with more of an emphasis on "yikes."

4. Mike Nolan is the Doncs defensive coordinator. Wow. Yikes squared. Cubed. Then factored exponentially.

The defense is definitely the team's weakness, although I expect that it will be improved over last year. DJ Williams is very good and Andra Davis will help with the move to the 3-4. Also, they strengthened the DBs with the Dawkins signing, among other moves.

Special Teams:

1. See offense and defense for a list of players that aren't good enough to be starters for said offense and defense and then try to imagine a special teams that is even remotely decent. It can't be done.

Doncos are the worst team in football next season. Easily eclipsing last years cellar dwellers the Lions, Chiefs and Rams.

The special teams unit should be very good. I expect that the Broncos still end up 2nd in the AFC West, although I could change how I feel about that depending upon moves made between now and the start of the season.

Raised On Riots
05-07-2009, 11:29 PM
Ummm... He DID beat out Rex Grossman.



Along with several veterans. Their running game will be excellent.



His decision making has been fine.



Not going to happen. The charges were dropped almost immediately.



The defense is definitely the team's weakness, although I expect that it will be improved over last year. DJ Williams is very good and Andra Davis will help with the move to the 3-4. Also, they strengthened the DBs with the Dawkins signing, among other moves.



The special teams unit should be very good. I expect that the Broncos still end up 2nd in the AFC West, although I could change how I feel about that depending upon moves made between now and the start of the season.

I don't like this. I don't like it at all.

"Just Fisting Myself"; I rebuke and cast you out.:$2500:

Mr. Flopnuts
05-07-2009, 11:38 PM
Good find.

Tyson Jackson's job isn't to make an impact. If he's doing his job correctly, the average fan will have no idea. They'll just think the LBers are studs.

Well I'm sure glad we were able to get that kind of player at number 3 in the draft. Phenomenal value.

Raised On Riots
05-07-2009, 11:46 PM
Well I'm sure glad we were able to get that kind of player at number 3 in the draft. Phenomenal value.

You sound edgy. Here, have one of these:

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0cnP3Eoekb7rW/340x.jpg

Mr. Flopnuts
05-07-2009, 11:52 PM
You sound edgy. Here, have one of these:

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0cnP3Eoekb7rW/340x.jpg

Irony or coincidence that I was lighting one up as I clicked on this thread and saw your reply?

Raised On Riots
05-07-2009, 11:57 PM
Irony or coincidence that I was lighting one up as I clicked on this thread and saw your reply?

Synchronicity of two highly evolved minds. :thumb:

Mr. Flopnuts
05-07-2009, 11:59 PM
Synchronicity of two highly evolved minds. :thumb:

I like your answer best.

Mr. Flopnuts
05-08-2009, 12:00 AM
Speaking of smoking, I've got a DCS style picture for the haters. What do you think?

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v615/DWinter/Marlboro.jpg

Raised On Riots
05-08-2009, 12:03 AM
Speaking of smoking, I've got a DCS style picture for the haters. What do you think?

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v615/DWinter/Marlboro.jpg

ROFL ROFLROFL Kick ass.

Saccopoo
05-08-2009, 12:17 AM
Ummm... He DID beat out Rex Grossman.

Once. Then he was benched again in favor of Grossman. Then he beat him out. It was like watching a battle between Joe Montana and Steve Young. Two great gunslingers fighting it out to be tops. Just epic!

Along with several veterans. Their running game will be excellent.

Come on. Get serious. A rookie running back. Again. Although the stable has been filled with even more castoffs and hasbeens in this latest off-season. This has been a reoccurring theme for the Doncs for the past several years now. Maybe now that Shamahan isn't there, people might actually realize that Alex Gibbs stopped coaching there years ago, and it's been years ago since they had anything resembling a running game. Coincidence? I think not. (Although I was impressed with Peyton Hillis' ability to find holes and hit them quickly last season. However, with all the geriatrics now on the roster, I'm sure he'll be relegated to third string H-back duties and special teams.)

His decision making has been fine.

Yeah, the Cutler thingamabob was just downright terrific. And then there was the listing of only 30 players on his draft board. Stunning decision making so far.

Not going to happen. The charges were dropped almost immediately.

Doesn't matter. He promised Goodall that that sort of thing was not going to happen ever again. And then it did. That his girlfriend dropped the charges will have no relevance on Goodall's decision to suspend him for at the very minimum of four games, and considering that this isn't the first time he's beat up a woman (and that sort of shit ain't looked too highly upon by the current commish) and promised the commissioner that he wouldn't do it again...yeah. He's going to get suspended big time.

The defense is definitely the team's weakness, although I expect that it will be improved over last year. DJ Williams is very good and Andra Davis will help with the move to the 3-4. Also, they strengthened the DBs with the Dawkins signing, among other moves.

Dude. They might as well have signed Darryl Dawkins. He's the same age as Brian. And DJ Williams is not "very good." He's median at best, and undersized in a 3-4. And as you point out, they are moving to a brand new defense, coached by a guy who damn near ruined one of the best defenses ever (Ravens).

The special teams unit should be very good.

What? Did they re-sign Elam or something positively monumental like that?

Raised On Riots
05-08-2009, 12:19 AM
Yeah, the Cutler thingamabob was just downright terrific. And then there was the listing of only 30 players on his draft board. Stunning decision making so far.



ROFL

Saccopoo
05-08-2009, 12:20 AM
Speaking of smoking, I've got a DCS style picture for the haters. What do you think?

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v615/DWinter/Marlboro.jpg

I don't even smoke and I'm going to print that to a T-shirt tomorrow.

Just Passin' By
05-08-2009, 12:49 AM
Come on. Get serious. A rookie running back. Again. Although the stable has been filled with even more castoffs and hasbeens in this latest off-season. This has been a reoccurring theme for the Doncs for the past several years now. Maybe now that Shamahan isn't there, people might actually realize that Alex Gibbs stopped coaching there years ago, and it's been years ago since they had anything resembling a running game. Coincidence? I think not. (Although I was impressed with Peyton Hillis' ability to find holes and hit them quickly last season. However, with all the geriatrics now on the roster, I'm sure he'll be relegated to third string H-back duties and special teams.)

2 years ago, the Broncos running game was 9th in the NFL in yards and 3rd in average. Last year, they went through an insane number of running backs due to injury.

Yeah, the Cutler thingamabob was just downright terrific. And then there was the listing of only 30 players on his draft board. Stunning decision making so far.

Blaming McDaniels for Cutler is like blaming a parent because a child cries when it's not given ice cream.

Doesn't matter. He promised Goodall that that sort of thing was not going to happen ever again. And then it did. That his girlfriend dropped the charges will have no relevance on Goodall's decision to suspend him for at the very minimum of four games, and considering that this isn't the first time he's beat up a woman (and that sort of shit ain't looked too highly upon by the current commish) and promised the commissioner that he wouldn't do it again...yeah. He's going to get suspended big time.

Time will tell. This guy seems to disagree with you, for what that's worth:

http://blogs.nbcsports.com/home/archives/2009/03/will-marshall-avoid-suspension.html

Dude. They might as well have signed Darryl Dawkins. He's the same age as Brian. And DJ Williams is not "very good." He's median at best, and undersized in a 3-4. And as you point out, they are moving to a brand new defense, coached by a guy who damn near ruined one of the best defenses ever (Ravens).

Dawkins was a Pro Bowler last year. As for Williams, he'll be fine, and Davis will help him adjust. You are acting as if their defense didn't blow chunks last season, when it was just about the worst in the NFL. It will be better this season than last.

What? Did they re-sign Elam or something positively monumental like that?

One example:

http://media.www.jagbytes.com/media/storage/paper1244/news/2009/03/01/Sports/Broncos.Sign.Special.Teams.Ace.Reid-3654142.shtml

There are more if you choose to do the research.

bdeg
05-08-2009, 12:54 AM
they gave a special teamer a contract potentially worth 9 mil over 3 years? are you kidding? he must've really not wanted to go to denver

veist
05-08-2009, 01:37 AM
Ummm... He DID beat out Rex Grossman.
Eventually, after they were what 200% sure that Rex wasn't the answer. He didn't so much win the job as much as be the next guy to get a shot at the job.
The defense is definitely the team's weakness, although I expect that it will be improved over last year. DJ Williams is very good and Andra Davis will help with the move to the 3-4. Also, they strengthened the DBs with the Dawkins signing, among other moves.
I really can't stress this enough, Mike Nolan's base defense in SF was big nickel. And you have nobody to man the trenches for the 3-4, you let me know how that works out.

Pioli Zombie
05-08-2009, 04:33 AM
I'd take a Pro Bowl guard over a Pro Bowl cornerback any day of the week. All day long. Good quarterback protection with a quality guard versus, at best, 30% success rate against NFL wide receivers, which is what cornerbacks can look to average. Especially considering how they have been calling the pass interference rule since 2004. No sir. No cornerback for me, especially considering that if the guards give the quarterback the time, the quarterback almost always will beat the corner in todays game no matter how good he is.

Agreed. I look at the 80's Giants as a prime example. Strong OL and DL and Simms.
The Patriots built up their OL and DL amd with Brady at the helm had a dynasty. In 2004 they lost Ty Law and rode second year Samuel and Randall Gay to a title.
Nobody is saying CBs arent important. But you don't build great teams around running backs, receivers, and cornerbacks.

The Chiefs will focus on the OL, DL and believe Cassel is the guy.
Posted via Mobile Device

Raised On Riots
05-08-2009, 04:39 AM
Agreed. I look at the 80's Giants as a prime example. Strong OL and DL and Simms.
The Patriots built up their OL and DL amd with Brady at the helm had a dynasty. In 2004 they lost Ty Law and rode second year Samuel and Randall Gay to a title.
Nobody is saying CBs arent important. But you don't build great teams around running backs, receivers, and cornerbacks.

The Chiefs will focus on the OL, DL and believe Cassel is the guy.
Posted via Mobile Device

That's right. You build them by drafting then praising.....fill in the blank, PZ:D

Mile High Mania
05-08-2009, 04:42 AM
Bottom line... this is just another freaking list with no real method to the madness, you throw a 100 names out there and you're going to look like a brainiac with a few and miss even more. Just look at their 2008 rankings.

There's really nothing here to get too crazy about.

hishighness
05-08-2009, 06:58 AM
Yeah, we need a summer league for Football. The XFL would have been good if it wasn't run by a moron.

JASONSAUTO
05-08-2009, 07:05 AM
.
#3: Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets
Mark Sanchez is better than Matthew Stafford. :eek:ROFLSanchez projects to complete 60% of his passes and an interception per 36 attempts for a typical NFL team. In the same vacuum, Stafford completes 54% of his passes and throws an interception every 29 passes. Stafford is ranked higher because of two things: 1) the Lions will throw the ball more and 2) Calvin Johnson. Sanchez should be solid this season and for several years. Neither of these quarterbacks appear to be consistent Pro Bowlers (New York bias aside), yet Sanchez's bust potential is much lower than Stafford's.
.

wonder why this hasnt been pointed out yet?

kepp
05-08-2009, 07:16 AM
We have done pretty well with this approach. Leading into the 2008 season. Last season's ranking is located here (http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20080505b). As you can see, not only did this methodology correctly rank first round draft choices like Jonathan Stewart, Jerod Mayo, Jake Long and Sedrick Ellis among the top ten, it helped to point out some steals like Steve Slaton, Charles Godfrey, Matt Forte, Trevor Scott, Jamaal Charles and Cliff Avril.

"...and we also got plenty of them wrong."

Mile High Mania
05-08-2009, 07:36 AM
"...and we also got plenty of them wrong."

I like that they say they point out "steals" like Slaton which they ranked 83... maybe I'm just reading their lists wrong, but how is an 83 ranking justified as a steal. What would Royal ranked at 74 classify as for them? They had Doucet and Sweed above Royal... two big misses. They may have had Clady ranked well, but he wound up being much better than many ahead of him.

Big misses on Henne and Booty, ranked higher than Forte and even Keller. Will Franklin ranked right there with Royal? Nice call. Oh and 2 big WR misses that were ranked in the top 10. Hardy had as many catches as the number ranked and Washington's ranking was double the number of his receptions.

These lists are just names thrown against a wall and hoping a number of them stick.

83. Steve Slaton, RB, Houston
76. William Franklin, WR, Kansas City
74. Eddie Royal, WR, Denver
71. Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets
62. Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City
56. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee
51. Early Doucet, WR, Arizona
46. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago
38. Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh
34. John David Booty, QB, Minnesota
30. Ryan Clady, OL, Denver
24. Chad Henne, QB, Miami


And now the top ten:
#8: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo
Is this guy who only catches touchdowns the next Cris Carter? Probably not. But, at 6’5”, with great hands and decent speed, Hardy is exactly the type of player that Buffalo needs opposite Lee Evans.
#7: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington
Devin Thomas may have been taken by Washington before Kelly, but his greatest asset in year one will probably be more as a return man, while Kelly should get an opportunity to start. This is with slight reservation though as a slow 40-yard dash time hurt his draft status, but no one can question his productivity in three years at Oklahoma. Kelly’s head and his attitude will determine whether he’s the next Dwayne Jarrett or James Jones.

-King-
05-08-2009, 07:56 AM
wonder why this hasnt been pointed out yet?

Lmao good catch.

But I love how on the 2008 list they have kevin smith and mcfadden over ryan and flacco. They also have chris johnson and d. Rodgers cromartie in the 50s. So basically whatever point raised on riots is trying to make is pretty null. That list is about as accurate as me throwing darts with players names on them and seeing which ones are closer to the bulls eye while blindfolded.
Posted via Mobile Device

Chiefnj2
05-08-2009, 07:57 AM
My quick comments on the lists top 10:

1. Crabtree - immediate impact from a WR coming off foot surgery? WR's often develop slowly. With the injury and some intelligence concerns, I don't see a huge impact from him his rookie year.

2. Stafford - I thought the staff already said Culpepper was the starter this year.

3. Sanchez - Will likely start. Rex and the OC's will have to do a great job for Sanchez to succeed his first year with only 16 college games under his belt.

4. Percy - Interesting choice to make an impact. Had lots of alleged character issues. Will he be able to control himself or go all Pac-Man once he signs the contract?

5 - 10. I agree with.

JASONSAUTO
05-08-2009, 08:03 AM
Lmao good catch.

But I love how on the 2008 list they have kevin smith and mcfadden over ryan and flacco. They also have chris johnson and d. Rodgers cromartie in the 50s. So basically whatever point raised on riots is trying to make is pretty null. That list is about as accurate as me throwing darts with players names on them and seeing which ones are closer to the bulls eye while blindfolded.
Posted via Mobile Device

just found it funny that the thread starter found fit to point out that they project him to be better than stafford yet glossed over the fact that they ALSO project neither to be consistent probowlers

Mile High Mania
05-08-2009, 08:11 AM
I find it interesting that one of the darts they threw was putting Donald Brown (RB Colts) ahead of Moreno (RB Broncos).

Addai is "the guy" in Indy and yes, while he has some concerns with starting all 16, and yes there are currently 74 RBs on Denver's roster... reasonable thinking suggests that Moreno, from week 1 is going to get many many more opportunities than Brown.

But, it's a dart they threw, so they're hoping for the best. Also, I think they have Smith ranked a bit high at 11... they're hoping for magic there.

Chiefnj2
05-08-2009, 08:31 AM
Safe picks to make an impact rookie year - interior linemen from the 2nd round and LB's from the 1st and 2nd rounds.

Just Passin' By
05-08-2009, 09:51 AM
Eventually, after they were what 200% sure that Rex wasn't the answer. He didn't so much win the job as much as be the next guy to get a shot at the job.

Nonetheless, he beat him out. I was just refuting someone's erroneous claim.

I really can't stress this enough, Mike Nolan's base defense in SF was big nickel. And you have nobody to man the trenches for the 3-4, you let me know how that works out.

Mike Nolan has worked the 3-4 before. Furthermore, since I'm not a Broncos fan, it's purely a mental exercise for me, so objectivity isn't really a problem. That defense was absolutely terrible last season. I don't expect that it will be great this season, and the lack of a nose tackle is going to kill the Broncos against quality running teams. Nonetheless, the defense should be better this year than last year. It almost has to be, even if it just shows up.

veist
05-08-2009, 10:06 AM
Mike Nolan has worked the 3-4 before. Furthermore, since I'm not a Broncos fan, it's purely a mental exercise for me, so objectivity isn't really a problem. That defense was absolutely terrible last season. I don't expect that it will be great this season, and the lack of a nose tackle is going to kill the Broncos against quality running teams. Nonetheless, the defense should be better this year than last year. It almost has to be, even if it just shows up.

The point you seem to be missing is that Mike Nolan is about as creative a DC as a rock would be, he ran big nickel as a base defense. I don't care what his bona fides are when given the reins he ran a defense that was run oriented in a pass first league. To me that doesn't inspire confidence, mirth sure but not confidence.

Chiefnj2
05-08-2009, 10:19 AM
The point you seem to be missing is that Mike Nolan is about as creative a DC as a rock would be, he ran big nickel as a base defense. I don't care what his bona fides are when given the reins he ran a defense that was run oriented in a pass first league. To me that doesn't inspire confidence, mirth sure but not confidence.

What is the big nickel?

Brock
05-08-2009, 10:23 AM
What is the big nickel?

Nickel with an extra safety instead of a CB.

Mile High Mania
05-08-2009, 10:24 AM
What is the big nickel?

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_f5iltKJJRPU/Roh0ukQQEtI/AAAAAAAAAp0/_OfGEtSlfIA/s400/wooden+nickel.jpg

htismaqe
05-08-2009, 10:45 AM
Again, if he's worth it... it's wise. Interesting to see him at #11 with all this talk about what they gave up, while the #3 overall pick is.... where? Oh, down in the 30s.

Ok, carry on.

Again, this list is obviously focused on impact to their team, which makes what they traded to get him irrelevant. This isn't a list about "value".

Chiefnj2
05-08-2009, 11:20 AM
Nickel with an extra safety instead of a CB.

I would think there was more to it, because IIRC they dropped 10 points a game average after switching to a straight up 3-4 defense. Did using a CB instead of a S cause such a drastic change?

Raised On Riots
05-08-2009, 02:38 PM
wonder why this hasnt been pointed out yet?

just found it funny that the thread starter found fit to point out that they project him to be better than stafford yet glossed over the fact that they ALSO project neither to be consistent probowlers

Well boys, what does our Jesus GM say about Pro Bowls and Pro Bowlers?

Contemplate, Marinate; you're welcome.