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Stewie
05-21-2009, 01:32 PM
Good luck. The dollar has started its deadspin which I spoke of months ago. Protect yourself! There's big money to be made if you're savvy.

That is all.

Calcountry
05-21-2009, 01:39 PM
Obama gonna change it.

Stewie
05-21-2009, 01:45 PM
Obama gonna change it.

ROFL

Oh, the change! I don't give a rat's ass who's President, I just invest according to their policy in conjunction with the Federal Reserve. The policy now is an unmitigated disaster. It's easy pickings now for the informed.

Calcountry
05-21-2009, 01:47 PM
ROFL

Oh, the change! I don't give a rat's ass who's President, I just invest according to their policy in conjunction with the Federal Reserve. The policy now is an unmitigated disaster. It's easy pickings now for the informed.So, what are you picking?

Stewie
05-21-2009, 01:53 PM
So, what are you picking?

Anti-dollar. There are many plays.

Nightfyre
05-21-2009, 01:58 PM
Non-imported Steel. You heard it here first!

Calcountry
05-21-2009, 02:26 PM
Anti-dollar. There are many plays.Past performance is not indicative of future results, yeah yeah, what are you picking?

Garcia Bronco
05-21-2009, 02:37 PM
ROFL

Oh, the change! I don't give a rat's ass who's President, I just invest according to their policy in conjunction with the Federal Reserve. The policy now is an unmitigated disaster. It's easy pickings now for the informed.

Gold? 4X?

Stewie
05-21-2009, 02:41 PM
Past performance is not indicative of future results, yeah yeah, what are you picking?

I've been in gold since 2001. Warren Buffet went short the dollar in 2003/04 or there abouts, and then chickened out. Playing gold and shorting the dollar are the same thing. If Warren had stayed the course he'd be way ahead, instead he's sucking eggs. It takes big balls to play this market, but with China's revelation that they've bought several tons of gold to offset their dollar holdings is HUGE! When I talk tons, I talk TONS of gold because they realize their dollar holdings are shit. Oh, and they'll play the weak dollar to the hilt. They have long term plans, unlike our gov't who can't think past this week's dumbass crisis.

KC native
05-21-2009, 02:52 PM
I've been in gold since 2001. Warren Buffet went short the dollar in 2003/04 or there abouts, and then chickened out. Playing gold and shorting the dollar are the same thing. If Warren had stayed the course he'd be way ahead, instead he's sucking eggs. It takes big balls to play this market, but with China's revelation that they've bought several tons of gold to offset their dollar holdings is HUGE! When I talk tons, I talk TONS of gold because they realize their dollar holdings are shit. Oh, and they'll play the weak dollar to the hilt. They have long term plans, unlike our gov't who can't think past this week's dumbass crisis.

Big risk and not much reward (at today's price) in gold right now IMO. I don't see it going too much higher anytime soon. The dollar is going to take a hit but the rest of the world is facing the same problems as the US and while I'm not a huge bear on China I do think they still have quite aways to fall. The Chinese stimulus package is starting to falter and their exports are way down. I don't think they will see as big a decline as the rest of the world but they don't have enough domestic growth yet to keep trucking through this downturn.

So in short betting big against the dollar right now is risky (especially depending on how you do it) but potentially very lucrative. I don't think there's much room for gold to run but I don't see it collapsing either.

KC native
05-21-2009, 02:54 PM
Gold? 4X?

A lot of those 3X and 4X ETF's don't trade like you would think they should relative to the underlying. Be careful with those.

Garcia Bronco
05-21-2009, 03:04 PM
A lot of those 3X and 4X ETF's don't trade like you would think they should relative to the underlying. Be careful with those.


I didn't even know there was a 4X etf, but I am talking about actively trading foreign currency though interbank or something like that. I don't understand all that well. The contracts and such.

SBK
05-21-2009, 05:32 PM
I'm buying stock in the democratic party. With Reid, Pelosi and Obama this stock is sure to bring enormous returns.

Mizzou_8541
05-21-2009, 05:35 PM
Gold? 4X?

I just got my free Gold Kit in the mail today!

Chief Henry
05-21-2009, 05:45 PM
I'm buying stock in the democratic party. With Reid, Pelosi and Obama this stock is sure to bring enormous returns.

Its also the same party that has a president that fouls up his teleprompter on a weekly basis. Did you know that Obama's defese secretary is now William Gates ?

Calcountry
05-21-2009, 05:47 PM
I've been in gold since 2001. Warren Buffet went short the dollar in 2003/04 or there abouts, and then chickened out. Playing gold and shorting the dollar are the same thing. If Warren had stayed the course he'd be way ahead, instead he's sucking eggs. It takes big balls to play this market, but with China's revelation that they've bought several tons of gold to offset their dollar holdings is HUGE! When I talk tons, I talk TONS of gold because they realize their dollar holdings are shit. Oh, and they'll play the weak dollar to the hilt. They have long term plans, unlike our gov't who can't think past this week's dumbass crisis.I really am not that wealthy, but I put a small portion of my cash into a few gold goins starting in 98. I paid an average of 350/oz for my gold. I have recently sold half the position and am on houses money from here out.

KcFanInGA
06-01-2009, 11:21 AM
On the level guys, I am woefully out of my depth here, but I have 3 kids and I am starting to worry more every day about where we as a country are heading. I cant find a job, the IRS is on me, any suggestions as far as options?

Garcia Bronco
06-01-2009, 11:23 AM
On the level guys, I am woefully out of my depth here, but I have 3 kids and I am starting to worry more every day about where we as a country are heading. I cant find a job, the IRS is on me, any suggestions as far as options?

I am considering the leaving the country.

banyon
06-01-2009, 11:24 AM
On the level guys, I am woefully out of my depth here, but I have 3 kids and I am starting to worry more every day about where we as a country are heading. I cant find a job, the IRS is on me, any suggestions as far as options?

Did you apply for any type of forbearance with the IRS?

BigRedChief
06-01-2009, 11:27 AM
I am considering the leaving the country.
Hallelujah! PBJ

Stewie
06-01-2009, 12:36 PM
On the level guys, I am woefully out of my depth here, but I have 3 kids and I am starting to worry more every day about where we as a country are heading. I cant find a job, the IRS is on me, any suggestions as far as options?

Do everything you can to keep a roof over your head, food on the table, and kids in clothes. Electricity is nice, too. Eliminating unnecessary expenses is first and foremost. You'd be amazed what is a need vs. a luxury when it comes down to it.

As for the IRS, work with them. They're accommodating from what I've heard. You're not the first person they've seen who has had financial issues recently.

Stewie
06-01-2009, 12:44 PM
Big risk and not much reward (at today's price) in gold right now IMO. I don't see it going too much higher anytime soon. The dollar is going to take a hit but the rest of the world is facing the same problems as the US and while I'm not a huge bear on China I do think they still have quite aways to fall. The Chinese stimulus package is starting to falter and their exports are way down. I don't think they will see as big a decline as the rest of the world but they don't have enough domestic growth yet to keep trucking through this downturn.

So in short betting big against the dollar right now is risky (especially depending on how you do it) but potentially very lucrative. I don't think there's much room for gold to run but I don't see it collapsing either.

I completely disagree. The dollar is headed to .52 in the next 2-3 years. Gold will benefit greatly. I'm willing to wager that gold will see $1400/oz this year. That's a 40% return since gold is pressing $1000/oz as we speak. The leverage via gold/silver miners makes a three-bagger inevitable.

The Fed is now confused about the steepening curve with respect to the bond market. They don't know if it's steepening because things are rosy and everyone is going back to work, or, if printing money is causing the problem. I pick the latter.

Calcountry
06-01-2009, 03:22 PM
I completely disagree. The dollar is headed to .52 in the next 2-3 years. Gold will benefit greatly. I'm willing to wager that gold will see $1400/oz this year. That's a 40% return since gold is pressing $1000/oz as we speak. The leverage via gold/silver miners makes a three-bagger inevitable.

The Fed is now confused about the steepening curve with respect to the bond market. They don't know if it's steepening because things are rosy and everyone is going back to work, or, if printing money is causing the problem. I pick the latter.1200 by September for sure.

When do we sell gold?

I will hold you harmless.

BigMeatballDave
06-01-2009, 03:37 PM
Bad economy? You haven't been to SW Ohio. The Dayton and Cincinnati areas. I was visiting a friend in Cincinnati. Shopping cemters and malls are packed and a lot of construction.

Amnorix
06-01-2009, 03:46 PM
Dunno about the rest of hte country, but the housing market is 1,000% ahead of where it was last year in this neck of the woods (Eastern Mass.).

Everything connected with residential real estate is better, though new construction sure as heck isn't where it once was.

Not sure about commercial side.

Bank commercial lending (non real estate) is still quite weak.

I heard rumblings a few weeks ago that the bond market is starting to see signs of life, but I haven't heard any updates.

Regrettably, I have several bankruptcies and related matters (preference claims) on my desk at the moment, so the fallout is certainly real enough.

Not a macro review, obviously, but just what I'm seeing from my own humble desk.

Chief Henry
06-01-2009, 03:52 PM
How long before inflation hits ?

KC native
06-01-2009, 03:58 PM
Dunno about the rest of hte country, but the housing market is 1,000% ahead of where it was last year in this neck of the woods (Eastern Mass.).

Everything connected with residential real estate is better, though new construction sure as heck isn't where it once was.

Not sure about commercial side.

Bank commercial lending (non real estate) is still quite weak.

I heard rumblings a few weeks ago that the bond market is starting to see signs of life, but I haven't heard any updates.

Regrettably, I have several bankruptcies and related matters (preference claims) on my desk at the moment, so the fallout is certainly real enough.

Not a macro review, obviously, but just what I'm seeing from my own humble desk.

Commercial RE is starting to collapse. Housing, while the rate of decline is slowing, is still no where close to healthy and when all of this unemployment really starts to take hold we will be seeing another round of foreclosures (so inventory will spike again and then we will see more price declines). So, while we are in a better position than Sept-Nov of last year we are still a long ways from turning the corner.

KC native
06-01-2009, 03:58 PM
How long before inflation hits ?

8-16 months provided deflation stops relatively soon.

BucEyedPea
06-01-2009, 04:52 PM
China is buying gold in way to not cause alarm...slowly so no one will panick.
They were at least still buying our debt under Bush....but not now. Not with Obama's spending.

I just picked up a bunch of gold French franc roosters and am about to expand my garden.
I've some gold since 1988...but not much. A lot of silver dollars. I've had junk silver in case there'd ever be an emergency...like lettuce costing $25 a head.

Some are predicting that gold goes as high as $6k and ozs. I'm gonna buy some every week.

BucEyedPea
06-01-2009, 04:57 PM
How long before inflation hits ?

I think you're seeing some of the inflation right now in food prices and gas going back up. Some say it would hit about 18 months after monetarization but it began in Sept 08. ( that is after 8 years of the previous).

BucEyedPea
06-01-2009, 05:01 PM
Oh hey! Did anyone hear about the car dealer with the electronic sign saying "Gold and Silver Now being accepted for down payments?"

SBK
06-01-2009, 05:09 PM
Dunno about the rest of hte country, but the housing market is 1,000% ahead of where it was last year in this neck of the woods (Eastern Mass.).

Everything connected with residential real estate is better, though new construction sure as heck isn't where it once was.

Not sure about commercial side.

Bank commercial lending (non real estate) is still quite weak.

I heard rumblings a few weeks ago that the bond market is starting to see signs of life, but I haven't heard any updates.

Regrettably, I have several bankruptcies and related matters (preference claims) on my desk at the moment, so the fallout is certainly real enough.

Not a macro review, obviously, but just what I'm seeing from my own humble desk.

The big mess is on the way. Alt-A financing issues are going to make subprime look like nothing, and the commercial market is about to get absolutely destroyed. The majority of commercial real estate in America today has a note due between now and 2013 and the property no longer qualifies for financing.

BucEyedPea
06-01-2009, 05:10 PM
Did Amnorix post anecdotal information? Where's KCnative and banyon to call him out?

Calcountry
06-01-2009, 06:47 PM
China is buying gold in way to not cause alarm...slowly so no one will panick.
They were at least still buying our debt under Bush....but not now. Not with Obama's spending.

I just picked up a bunch of gold French franc roosters and am about to expand my garden.
I've some gold since 1988...but not much. A lot of silver dollars. I've had junk silver in case there'd ever be an emergency...like lettuce costing $25 a head.

Some are predicting that gold goes as high as $6k and ozs. I'm gonna buy some every week.Are you going to buy a gm car?

Calcountry
06-01-2009, 06:47 PM
Did Amnorix post anecdotal information? Where's KCnative and banyon to call him out?:shrug:

Calcountry
06-01-2009, 06:52 PM
I think you're seeing some of the inflation right now in food prices and gas going back up. Some say it would hit about 18 months after monetarization but it began in Sept 08. ( that is after 8 years of the previous).Watch the bond market. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/keyrates.html


This site should be bookmarked and watched closely.

When the Bond market starts tanking it is on like Donkey Kong.

The 10 year bond yield was the first ember in the fire. (Gong)

The Chinese laughing at Timmy is another spark. (Gong)

It's like hells bells gongs.

Bwana
06-01-2009, 06:54 PM
How long before inflation hits ?

That is my main concern. It is going to get very ugly IMHO.

Calcountry
06-01-2009, 06:55 PM
Did Amnorix post anecdotal information? Where's KCnative and banyon to call him out?Here's is some anecdotal info for you.

The panhandlers are getting more agressive.

I had a chick pull up in front of my store, get out of her car with it running. She trots in, in a hurry, and starts explaining all the shit that is wrong with her car if she turns it off, but, she needs gas money.

I say, no, she says, do you smoke, can I have a cigarette?(No, I don't smoke, sorry).

They won't take no for an answer is getting pretty bad.

Damn nicotine fits must be hell. Perhaps Obama can bail her out of her predicament.

Calcountry
06-01-2009, 06:56 PM
That is my main concern. It is going to get very ugly IMHO.I am not looking forward to this. It is a bitch, to keep explaining to folks why my prices are going up.

banyon
06-01-2009, 06:57 PM
Did Amnorix post anecdotal information? Where's KCnative and banyon to call him out?

Well, since he did the opposite of what you do and specifically limited his conclusions to his region and area of knowledge as opposed to broadening the conclusions and extrapolating them way outside of a plausible scope or sample size, then I'm not sure what kind of comment you're looking for. That he did it in a rational way?

Way to go Amnorix, your post didn't commit multiple logical fallacies!!!

banyon
06-01-2009, 06:58 PM
Here's is some anecdotal info for you.

The panhandlers are getting more agressive.

I had a chick pull up in front of my store, get out of her car with it running. She trots in, in a hurry, and starts explaining all the shit that is wrong with her car if she turns it off, but, she needs gas money.

I say, no, she says, do you smoke, can I have a cigarette?(No, I don't smoke, sorry).

They won't take no for an answer is getting pretty bad.

Damn nicotine fits must be hell. Perhaps Obama can bail her out of her predicament.

Sounds like she might be able to increase her automotive repair fund if she cut down on the smoking.

Bwana
06-01-2009, 07:00 PM
Non-imported Steel. You heard it here first!

I bought a lot of shares of United States Steel Corp (X) three months ago at $17 a share. It closed today at $36.82 a share and continues to rise faster than a north Korean rocket.

BucEyedPea
06-01-2009, 07:00 PM
Are you going to buy a gm car?

Never have. Never will.

BucEyedPea
06-01-2009, 07:02 PM
Here's is some anecdotal info for you.

The panhandlers are getting more agressive.

I had a chick pull up in front of my store, get out of her car with it running. She trots in, in a hurry, and starts explaining all the shit that is wrong with her car if she turns it off, but, she needs gas money.

I say, no, she says, do you smoke, can I have a cigarette?(No, I don't smoke, sorry).

They won't take no for an answer is getting pretty bad.

Damn nicotine fits must be hell. Perhaps Obama can bail her out of her predicament.

Cali is in rough shape apparently.

stevieray
06-01-2009, 07:17 PM
heres a dirty little secret...you know who is losing all these jobs? it isn't women.

..and they are deciding they don't need men or marriage.

Calcountry
06-01-2009, 07:56 PM
Sounds like she might be able to increase her automotive repair fund if she cut down on the smoking.Lmao.

she kept going on and on with shit, I knew there was a "gimme" coming, so, when I started answering her before she finished I almost pissed her off.

SBK
06-01-2009, 07:58 PM
Lmao.

she kept going on and on with shit, I knew there was a "gimme" coming, so, when I started answering her before she finished I almost pissed her off.

I haven't been approched in Atlanta for awhile, but things were so bad they had to make it a crime. You couldn't get gas without someone begging for your money.

I did see a woman (obviously in need of some meth) standing in the middle of an 8 lane road in a t-shirt, and that's it. Figured she was probably trying to sell herself to score a rock or something. At least it was 90 today and she was able to keep warm. :)

Calcountry
06-01-2009, 08:04 PM
I think you're seeing some of the inflation right now in food prices and gas going back up. Some say it would hit about 18 months after monetarization but it began in Sept 08. ( that is after 8 years of the previous).Pork prices are a bargain right now, but you don't like pork, do you? Just a guess.

Calcountry
06-01-2009, 08:05 PM
I haven't been approched in Atlanta for awhile, but things were so bad they had to make it a crime. You couldn't get gas without someone begging for your money.

I did see a woman (obviously in need of some meth) standing in the middle of an 8 lane road in a t-shirt, and that's it. Figured she was probably trying to sell herself to score a rock or something. At least it was 90 today and she was able to keep warm. :)lmao, in the middle of an 8 lane road? Was she taking her top off or something? What made you think she was looking for some blow out there?

Calcountry
06-01-2009, 08:06 PM
Cali is in rough shape apparently.SwarzenKennedy threatened to cut off the welfare checks, that's no shit.

Calcountry
06-01-2009, 08:07 PM
I haven't been approched in Atlanta for awhile, but things were so bad they had to make it a crime. You couldn't get gas without someone begging for your money.

I did see a woman (obviously in need of some meth) standing in the middle of an 8 lane road in a t-shirt, and that's it. Figured she was probably trying to sell herself to score a rock or something. At least it was 90 today and she was able to keep warm. :)Go to the Varsity for me dude, that place looks so awesome, I have to do it some day.

SBK
06-01-2009, 08:08 PM
Go to the Varsity for me dude, that place looks so awesome, I have to do it some day.

Took my brother there a few weeks ago. The food isn't anything special AT ALL, but the atmosphere is a lot of fun.

KC native
06-01-2009, 08:43 PM
Did Amnorix post anecdotal information? Where's KCnative and banyon to call him out?

If you actually read what I wrote you would have seen that I did correct what he wrote. He's not a blind ideologue and said it wasn't a macro perspective. I guess you would have to actually read his and my posts to realize that though.

Silock
06-01-2009, 09:31 PM
Agree on big money to be made. I'm slowly transitioning out of securities.

Discuss Thrower
06-02-2009, 03:16 AM
Here's is some anecdotal info for you.

The panhandlers are getting more agressive.

I had a chick pull up in front of my store, get out of her car with it running. She trots in, in a hurry, and starts explaining all the shit that is wrong with her car if she turns it off, but, she needs gas money.

I say, no, she says, do you smoke, can I have a cigarette?(No, I don't smoke, sorry).

They won't take no for an answer is getting pretty bad.

Damn nicotine fits must be hell. Perhaps Obama can bail her out of her predicament.



I was panhandled twice in a 5 day span while I was still in Springfield. First a guy in a rams shirt + hat was walking around with some official looking documents and a cellphone saying he was HIV positive and needed some money to put some minutes on his phone to talk to his mother. The next a guy came up to me as I was getting out of my vehicle by boxing me in and asking for change. I said I had none. I'm starting to wonder if investing in a weapon considering I've been boxed in by moochers twice now in my life and I don't want to third time to coincide with my first time being a victim of felonious assault.

BucEyedPea
06-02-2009, 07:15 AM
Pork prices are a bargain right now, but you don't like pork, do you? Just a guess.

No I love pork. It's the other white meat. I'm racist I guess.

BucEyedPea
06-02-2009, 07:16 AM
I haven't been approched in Atlanta for awhile, but things were so bad they had to make it a crime. You couldn't get gas without someone begging for your money.
Anecdotal evidence we are on our way to becoming a Third World nation.

***SPRAYER
06-05-2009, 09:37 AM
http://www.moonbattery.com/Obamopoly.jpg

gblowfish
06-05-2009, 11:39 AM
On unemployment:

US figures don't include people who have given up, and just stopped looking for a job, and those who are under-employed as temps or contract workers. They may be working today, but may not be working next month; and of course have no real health or other benefits. So the actual level of unemployment or under employment is maybe double what the government reports:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_becoming_a_statistic
Temp work helps mask joblessness among Americans
AP-Frank Bass

TOWNSHEND, Vt. For weeks, Greg Noel roamed the spine of the Green Mountains with a handheld GPS unit, walking dirt roads and chatting with people as he helped create a map of every housing unit in the United States.

Work was good: The sun was out, the snow was gone and the blackflies hadn't begun to hatch. But now that work is over and Noel, 60, and more than 60,000 other Americans hired in April to help with the 2010 census are out of work once more.

It's a familiar predicament in today's economy, in which some 2 million people searching for full-time work have had to settle for less, and unemployment is much higher than the official rate when all the Americans who gave up looking for jobs are counted, too.

Because of the surge of hiring for the census, April unemployment only rose to 8.9 percent a much slower increase than had been feared. Figures out today show unemployment now stands at 9.4 percent.

But consider these numbers:

_The 9.4 percent May unemployment rate is based on 14.5 million Americans out of work. But that number doesn't include discouraged workers, people who gave up looking for work after four weeks. Add those 792,000 people, and the unemployment rate is 9.8 percent.

_The official rate also doesn't include "marginally attached workers," or people who have looked for work in the past year but stopped searching in the past month because of barriers to employment such as child care, poor health or lack of transportation. Add those 1.4 million people, and the unemployment rate would be 10.6 percent.

_The official rate also doesn't include "involuntary part-time workers," or the 2.2 million people like Noel who took a part-time job because that's all they could get, plus those whose work hours dropped below the full-time level. Once those 9.1 million workers are added to the unemployment mix, the rate would be 16.4 percent.

All told, nearly 25 million Americans were either unemployed, underemployed or had given up looking for a job in May.

The ranks of involuntary part-timers has increased by 4.9 million in the past year, according to a May study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Many economists now predict unemployment won't peak until 2010. And since employers generally increase the hours of existing workers before hiring new ones, workers could be looking for full-time jobs for some time.

Even so, one economist said the increase in involuntary part-timers might have a silver lining. Gary Burtless, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institute, said employers are likely cutting back everyone's hours instead of laying off people.

"In many countries, it's regarded as a good thing," he said.

For tens of thousands of people like Noel, a part-time job isn't their dream, but it beats the alternative. A Pennsylvania native and veteran of the Silicon Valley boom-and-bust cycle, Noel settled in southern Vermont in 2003. He'd worked a series of jobs, commuting to his latest position as an auditor for a family owned food and beverage distributor in Brattleboro before being laid off in early spring.

Vermont is in better shape than most states but not by much. Real estate and tourism, pillars of the state's economy over the past decade, are staggering.

Many parents who were frantic last year about sons and daughters serving in Iraq and Afghanistan the state has sent a disproportionate share of its young people overseas now are relieved their children have a steady job with benefits. Financial jobs are few. "The economy?" Noel asks between bites of a bison burger in a tiny diner. "You just don't know if it's ever going to come back. We may never have it so good again."

When the Census Bureau offered him a part-time job mapping houses nearly an hour from his Windham home, Noel jumped at it. The money, $10 to $25 an hour plus 55 cents per mile, was a big factor. But Noel said he also wanted to be part of a larger community effort, and the 2010 census is nothing if not a large community effort.

When the first numbers are released in December 2010, the Census Bureau will have spent more than $11 billion and hired about 1.2 million temporary employees. The government conducts its census every decade to determine the number of congressional seats assigned to each state, but the figures collected also help the government decide where to spend billions of dollars for the poor and disabled, where to build new schools and prisons and how state legislative boundaries should be designed.

It hasn't been the perfect job that would be a full-time position with benefits but Noel says the census job worked out well. It eased the pain of being unemployed, giving him something to do and made him realize his entire life doesn't have to be about financial management.

"It's just statistics," said Noel, "but it's important."

But last week, he was unemployed again, a victim of the Census Bureau's efficiency. Since the government was able to draw from a well-qualified but mostly out-of-work pool of applicants, the work done by more than 140,000 field employees went far more quickly than expected.

"We've always done well, but this time around was amazing," said Stephen L. Buckner, a Census Bureau spokesman. "It's a tough economic time."

For some temporary workers, the outlook is brighter. Ian Gunn spent five weeks "being paid to hike. It was great." Gunn, an 18-year-old high school senior heading to Renssalaer Polytechnic Institute next year to study computer science, hopes for a better economy when he graduates, one that offers more security than a series of part-time jobs.

"It's going to take time," he said, "but I've got four more years."

Noel, though, is uncertain about the future. It's possible he'll be called back to work later in the fall for the final push. The Census Bureau expects to send roughly 1.2 million workers out to count people who don't return their questionnaires; the hiring will push down unemployment numbers for several months during that period.

For now, Noel says, he and his wife are living without frills. He looks for another job and she runs Green Mountain Chef, a catering business near Stratton Mountain. Demand has slowed dramatically since the economic meltdown began, as it has for most tourism-dependent businesses in Vermont.

Noel hopes to avoid being a statistic for too long. Unemployment insurance will give him about $425 a week enough to pay the mortgage and maybe the health insurance bill. Right now, the couple pays about $280 a month, but that will climb to $850 in September, when his government-subsidized COBRA policy expires.

"I hope something comes up," he says. "But there's not an awful lot out there."

Calcountry
06-05-2009, 11:59 AM
Took my brother there a few weeks ago. The food isn't anything special AT ALL, but the atmosphere is a lot of fun.:thumb:

Calcountry
06-05-2009, 12:01 PM
I was panhandled twice in a 5 day span while I was still in Springfield. First a guy in a rams shirt + hat was walking around with some official looking documents and a cellphone saying he was HIV positive and needed some money to put some minutes on his phone to talk to his mother. The next a guy came up to me as I was getting out of my vehicle by boxing me in and asking for change. I said I had none. I'm starting to wonder if investing in a weapon considering I've been boxed in by moochers twice now in my life and I don't want to third time to coincide with my first time being a victim of felonious assault.You could have said, "Word to your motha" :shrug: Besides, he had a rams shirt on, you should have told him that's what you get for backing a loser.

Calcountry
06-05-2009, 12:02 PM
No I love pork. It's the other white meat. I'm racist I guess.Pork, in moderation is one of the most flavorful of meats. I love it.

I am very bigoted towards meats that have a lot of diseases in them.

Stewie
06-05-2009, 02:05 PM
The deception continues. The birth death model is being absolutely abused to make things look less horrific. It's amazing the amount of jobs created from "non-traditional job sources." :rolleyes:

http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/26/birthdeath.jpg

***SPRAYER
06-05-2009, 02:30 PM
http://www.moonbattery.com/Jobless-rates.gif

Saul Good
06-05-2009, 07:05 PM
I Hope this Changes.

KC native
06-05-2009, 09:26 PM
The deception continues. The birth death model is being absolutely abused to make things look less horrific. It's amazing the amount of jobs created from "non-traditional job sources." :rolleyes:

http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/26/birthdeath.jpg

It's been this way for quite a while. The Birth/Death model was revised in 2001. Astute observers of this crisis and economy began noting that in 2005 the B/D adjustment was responsible for a considerable portion of the jobs that were "created" as the boom happend from 2003 until 2008. This is one of the reasons that the economy under Bush was cited as the jobless recovery because of the doubts about the B/D model and the lack of employment growth coming out of the recession in 2003.

Stewie
06-06-2009, 11:43 AM
It's been this way for quite a while. The Birth/Death model was revised in 2001. Astute observers of this crisis and economy began noting that in 2005 the B/D adjustment was responsible for a considerable portion of the jobs that were "created" as the boom happend from 2003 until 2008. This is one of the reasons that the economy under Bush was cited as the jobless recovery because of the doubts about the B/D model and the lack of employment growth coming out of the recession in 2003.

The point of the graph was that while birth/death modeling has been used to tweak unemployment numbers, they have gone the extra mile during this huge downtrend to assume huge gains in "non-traditional" job creation. It doesn't make sense. With so many people losing their jobs they're assuming small(er) companies that don't participate in the BLS data are somehow not participating in the recession and hiring like crazy... or millions are now consultants... or, they're getting pay/benefits somehow.