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banyon
05-27-2009, 05:49 PM
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banyon
05-27-2009, 05:59 PM
Does anybody understand what the hell is going on here?

Saul Good
05-27-2009, 06:12 PM
It looks like the very early signs of dementia.

Direckshun
05-27-2009, 06:28 PM
Pretty much what's always going on at CNBC.

Donger
05-27-2009, 06:30 PM
I'd like to give you input, but I refuse to spend 20 minutes waiting for a f*cking YouTube clip to load.

Direckshun
05-27-2009, 06:32 PM
I'd like to give you input, but I refuse to spend 20 minutes waiting for a f*cking YouTube clip to load.

Damn dial-up modems!

Donger
05-27-2009, 06:34 PM
Damn dial-up modems!

7MB down VDSL, actually.

banyon
05-27-2009, 06:38 PM
I'd like to give you input, but I refuse to spend 20 minutes waiting for a f*cking YouTube clip to load.

This is a link to the CNBC video embed:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/05/holy-jeff-macke.html

Donger
05-27-2009, 06:45 PM
This is a link to the CNBC video embed:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/05/holy-jeff-macke.html

I presume that chap was under the influence.

banyon
05-27-2009, 06:51 PM
I presume that chap was under the influence.

It sounded like coke to me, perhaps a prescription amphetamine.

googlegoogle
05-27-2009, 07:14 PM
The bald guy is on the other show after kramer.

Was he normal then? Looks drunk kind of.

MahiMike
05-27-2009, 07:25 PM
Is the bald dude a scorned lover of the announcer or something? How come he has a job?

Stewie
05-27-2009, 08:00 PM
It's CNBC. They're the mouthpiece of all the crooks on Wall Street. They want to paint a rosy picture to get more of your money in their pockets.

Housing has bottomed? BULLSHIT! Existing home sales were up, they say. Big fucking deal!!! A foreclosure goes on record as an existing home sale.

Saul Good
05-27-2009, 08:02 PM
It's CNBC. They're the mouthpiece of all the crooks on Wall Street. They want to paint a rosy picture to get more of your money in their pockets.

Housing has bottomed? BULLSHIT! Existing home sales were up, they say. Big ****ing deal!!! A foreclosure goes on record as an existing home sale.

Are you sure that this is true? If so, at what point does it become a sale, and what is the sale price? The balance of the loan?

Stewie
05-27-2009, 08:07 PM
Are you sure that this is true? If so, at what point does it become a sale, and what is the sale price? The balance of the loan?

It's absolutely true. A sale is a transfer of deed no matter who takes possession, including a bank that foreclosed on a property.

Saul Good
05-27-2009, 08:09 PM
It's absolutely true. A sale is a transfer of deed no matter who takes possession, including a bank that foreclosed on a property.

So then would having a car repossessed be considered a used car sale?

petegz28
05-27-2009, 08:16 PM
Are you sure that this is true? If so, at what point does it become a sale, and what is the sale price? The balance of the loan?

Home prices were also down 15% as well. So the existing home sales isn't as rosy as it sounds.

petegz28
05-27-2009, 08:23 PM
And I quit watching CNBC about 3 months ago. I got tired of the daily whining from the gold-digger, Erin Burnett about how the crooks on Wall St. were being so mistreated

banyon
05-27-2009, 08:37 PM
It's absolutely true. A sale is a transfer of deed no matter who takes possession, including a bank that foreclosed on a property.

It's a secured loan default. The bank and the borrower didn't have the house as consideration in the sale, the bargained for exchange was a loan for x rate with the house as collateral in the event of default.

Is there someone falsely counting foreclosures as sales, or are you referring to a bank auction at a later date?

Saul Good
05-27-2009, 08:50 PM
Is there someone falsely counting foreclosures as sales, or are you referring to a bank auction at a later date?

That's what I was getting at when I asked at what point it would be considered a sale. I can understand the bank auction, but if a foreclosure is considered a sale, I would think that a re-fi would also be considered a sale.

Actually, I would consider a re-fi to be a sale before I would consider a foreclosure to be one. At least with most re-fis, there is a new lien-holder.

KC native
05-27-2009, 10:22 PM
Housing numbers still suck (the rate of suckage is slowing though). The following chart is all you need to see to realize that housing sales are still crap.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/ehssalesnsaapril09.jpg

Also, Barry does a great job dissecting the numbers again.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/existing-home-sales-fall-35-2/

Existing-home Sales Fall 3.5%
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By Barry Ritholtz - May 27th, 2009, 10:19AM

I always enjoy fighting my way through the nonsensical press releases from the National Association of Realtors. At one time, it was a bit of a challenge, but its become much easier once I figured out that they are a PR trade group, and not a legitimate source of honest economic commentary. Its as if a really dumb Will Shortz put out crossword puzzles, or made some for those suffering from blunt force head trauma.

This month’s release was especially easy — the data alternates paragraphs with the NAR spin. Strip out the PR bullshit, and what you are actually left with is straight up data.

• Existing-home sales increased 2.9% (seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million units) in April from a downwardly revised pace of 4.55 million units in March.

• Sales were down a modest 3.5% from April 2008.

• First-time buyers in April declined to 40% of transactions (NAR survey).

• Nationwide, the median existing-home price for all housing types was $170,200 in April, down 15.4% below April 2008.

• Distressed properties accounted for 45% of all sales in April;

• Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 8.8% — about 4 million existing homes — a 10.2. month supply;

• Single-family home sales rose 2.5% from March (seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.18 million);

• Sales are 2.8% below the March 2008.

• The median price for existing single-family homes was $169,800 in April, which is 14.9% below a year ago.

The increase in inventory is somewhat worrisome, and supports our thesis that any stabilization in sales or prices will bring out more shadow inventory. (I would need to see the data on past inventory increases to see if Lawrence Yun’s statement, “The gain in inventory is largely seasonal from sellers entering the spring market” is remotely accurate.)

Rex Nutting noted that while most of the sales taking place are in the low-end of the market, “sales of homes priced above $750,000 have collapsed . . . The high-end has been decimated by the inability of many homeowners to sell their home in order to trade up. Most don’t have the collateral to get a loan.”

Note the red line — we are still tracking the past few years seasonal trends:

KC native
05-27-2009, 10:27 PM
It's a secured loan default. The bank and the borrower didn't have the house as consideration in the sale, the bargained for exchange was a loan for x rate with the house as collateral in the event of default.

Is there someone falsely counting foreclosures as sales, or are you referring to a bank auction at a later date?

That's what I was getting at when I asked at what point it would be considered a sale. I can understand the bank auction, but if a foreclosure is considered a sale, I would think that a re-fi would also be considered a sale.

Actually, I would consider a re-fi to be a sale before I would consider a foreclosure to be one. At least with most re-fis, there is a new lien-holder.

Re-fi's aren't considered sales but foreclosures are. In foreclosure the bank takes possession of the home and when they sell it, it gets booked into existing home sales.

KC native
05-28-2009, 11:19 AM
More housing goodness.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/nhsapril09nsa.jpg

New Home Sales Fall 34%
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By Barry Ritholtz - May 28th, 2009, 10:48AM

Another month, another disasterous housing data point:

Sales of new one-family houses in April 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 352,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.3 percent (±14.5%)* above the revised March rate of 351,000, but is 34.0 percent (±11.0%) below the April 2008 estimate of 533,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2009 was $209,700; the average sales price was $254,000. Median prices of a new home decreased 14.9%

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 297,000. This represents a supply of 10.1 months at the current sales rate.

Note (once again) that the monthly data is statistical noise at 0.3% with a ±14.5% margin of error; the annual fall of 34% is statistically significant versus 11% error).

The usual headlines got it wrong:

• Bloomberg: New-Home Sales in U.S. Climbed 0.3% to 352,000 Pace

• Marketwatch: Home sales up a paltry 0.3%

• Reuters: US new home sales rose 0.3 percent in April

• Associated Press: April new home sales inch upward
• WSJ: New-Home Sales Rise as Prices Tumble

No, we cannot accurately state that home sales went up in April 2009. Yes, we do know that sales fell (between 23% and 45%) year over year.

Note the Non-seasonally adjusted pattern is typical; the sales data follows the historical trend.

Bottom line: Yet another bad RE number.