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jAZ
06-15-2009, 01:55 AM
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2009/06/iran_there_will/

Iran: There Will Be Blood
Saturday, Jun 13 2009, 10:29PM

Last night in London after appearing on Keith Olbermann's show, I got an email from a well-connected Iranian who knows many of the power figures in the Tehran political order asking to meet me. I told him that the only place possible was Paddington on the way to Heathrow -- and there we met.

He conveyed to me things that were mostly obvious -- Iran is now a tinderbox. The right is tenaciously consolidating its control over the state and refuses to yield. There is a split among the mullahs and significant dismay with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A gaping hole has been ripped open in Iranian society, exposing the contradictions of the regime and everyone now sees that the democracy that they believed that they had in Iranian form is a "charade."

But the scariest point he made to me that I had not heard anywhere else is that this "coup by the right wing" has created pressures that cannot be solved or patted down by the normal institutional arrangements Iran has constructed. The Guardian Council and other power nodes of government can't deal with the current crisis and can't deal with the fact that a civil war has now broken out among Iran's revolutionaries.

My contact predicted serious violence at the highest levels. He said that Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani. The level of tension between them has gone beyond civil limits -- and my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed.

Likewise, he said, Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Mousavi know this -- and thus are using all of the instruments at their control within Iran's government apparatus to fight back -- but given Khamenei's embrace of Ahmadinejad's actions in the election and victory, there is no recourse but to try and remove Khamenei. Some suggest that Rafsanjani will count votes to see if there is a way to formally dislodge Khamenei -- but this source I met said that all of these political giants have resources at their disposal to "do away with" those that get in the way.

He predicted that the so-called reformist camp -- who are not exactly humanists in the Western liberal sense -- may try and animate efforts to decapitate the regime and "do away with" Ahmadinejad and even the Supreme Leader himself.

I am not convinced that this source "knows" these things will definitely happen but am convinced of his credentials and impressed with the seriousness of the discussion we had and his own concern that there may be political killing sprees ahead.

This is not a vision he advocates -- but one he fears.

-- Steve Clemons

J Diddy
06-15-2009, 02:59 AM
You know how hard it is to believe. There are a lot of innocent people gonna get hurt by this. I just hope in the end it builds something worthy of their loss.

SBK
06-15-2009, 06:44 AM
I know the common thought is that Obama's speech caused this, which is hilarious--but I wonder how much effect Afghanistan and Iraq being free has had on Iranians?

And no, I'm not trying to push credit for this around, I just wonder if watching their neighbors have free and open elections has changed their outlooks or something?
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Amnorix
06-15-2009, 06:53 AM
I know the common thought is that Obama's speech caused this, which is hilarious--but I wonder how much effect Afghanistan and Iraq being free has had on Iranians?

And no, I'm not trying to push credit for this around, I just wonder if watching their neighbors have free and open elections has changed their outlooks or something?
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As with any serious societal change, many factors are involved.

Those you mention are valid, but so are others. Iran has for quite some time been appeasing the masses by profilgate spending financed by high oil revenues. The tanking of oil has done tremendous damage to their economies and governmental revenues.

Even in Iran, James Carville's mantra holds true.

SBK
06-15-2009, 10:31 AM
As with any serious societal change, many factors are involved.

Those you mention are valid, but so are others. Iran has for quite some time been appeasing the masses by profilgate spending financed by high oil revenues. The tanking of oil has done tremendous damage to their economies and governmental revenues.

Even in Iran, James Carville's mantra holds true.

There's no doubt a ton of reasons this would happen. Ultimately this one falls completely on the Iranians, the gov't flubbing up and the people wanting to do something about it.

I'll be a lot more interested if we start to hear of a desire to out the Mullah's, until then this isn't as big of a story as people think it is....unfortunately.

petegz28
06-15-2009, 10:39 AM
Obama did not CAUSE this.....at all. This would have happened whether he or McCain were President. Let's come back to reality, please.

Taco John
06-15-2009, 10:48 AM
Obama did not CAUSE this.....at all. This would have happened whether he or McCain were President. Let's come back to reality, please.

I doubt that. I don't think Obama "caused" this, but I think his speech had a much larger effect than anti-Obomites will accept. McCain certainly wouldn't have inspired something like this. Ahmedenijad would have retained a very firm grasp on power if the "bomb bomb bomb Iran" guy was elected president.

petegz28
06-15-2009, 10:50 AM
I doubt that. I don't think Obama "caused" this, but I think his speech had a much larger effect than anti-Obomites will accept. McCain certainly wouldn't have inspired something like this. Ahmedenijad would have retained a very firm grasp on power if the "bomb bomb bomb Iran" guy was elected president.

LMAO...I might cede the McCain point...but please..let's not start pretending a speech made this happen. These types of uprisings have happened before in Iran prior to Obama ever being heard of.

mlyonsd
06-15-2009, 10:53 AM
I doubt that. I don't think Obama "caused" this, but I think his speech had a much larger effect than anti-Obomites will accept.

After seeing what's transpired over the weekend I'll admit I'm probably guilty of that.

Dave Lane
06-15-2009, 11:03 AM
LMAO...I might cede the McCain point...but please..let's not start pretending a speech made this happen. These types of uprisings have happened before in Iran prior to Obama ever being heard of.

This speech didn't "make this happen" but it rackets down the need for warhawks like Ahmedenijad and calms the populace enough to support pro-western candidates without as much fear of invasion / bombing.

petegz28
06-15-2009, 11:11 AM
This speech didn't "make this happen" but it rackets down the need for warhawks like Ahmedenijad and calms the populace enough to support pro-western candidates without as much fear of invasion / bombing.

Calms them? OOOOKKKKK

Most of the Iranian people want a Western based society. That has been the case for years and years.

KILLER_CLOWN
06-15-2009, 11:14 AM
Calms them? OOOOKKKKK

Most of the Iranian people want a Western based society. That has been the case for years and years.

Absolutely, freedom is popular everywhere! Now will we see them stand up and overthrow the dictator? we shall see, and hopefully without our intervention.

petegz28
06-15-2009, 11:16 AM
Absolutely, freedom is popular everywhere! Now will we see them stand up and overthrow the dictator? we shall see, and hopefully without our intervention.

I'd love to see it. But they aren't going to do it peacfully by any means. Tianamen Square and Stalin come to mind when I look at the current international support for the current Iranian regime.

KILLER_CLOWN
06-15-2009, 11:18 AM
I'd love to see it. But they aren't going to do it peacfully by any means. Tianamen Square and Stalin come to mind when I look at the current international support for the current Iranian regime.

Well i didn't say peacefully, they should be at the point where just get it done rules the day.

SBK
06-15-2009, 11:40 AM
Things are worth more to you when you're the one that foots the bill.
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jAZ
06-15-2009, 12:43 PM
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2009/06/ap_photographer_1_dead_as_militia_fire_on_rally.php?ref=fpblg

AP photographer sees militia fire at pro-reform crowds after massive march, 1 dead

Staff
AP News

Jun 15, 2009 11:42 EST

Gunmen have fired on opposition protesters at a massive march over alleged election fraud, killing at least one person.

An Associated Press photographer saw one person shot dead and several others who appear seriously wounded in Tehran's Azadi Square. The shooting came from a compound for volunteer militia linked to Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard.

The gunfire Monday came after more than 100,000 opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad streamed through Tehran. They were not challenged by security forces despite an earlier ban on rallies for reformist leader Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Disputes over alleged vote rigging in last week's elections have touched off days of rioting in Tehran.

Amnorix
06-15-2009, 01:03 PM
I'll be a lot more interested if we start to hear of a desire to out the Mullah's, until then this isn't as big of a story as people think it is....unfortunately.

QFT. The argument currently is over the window-dressing...

memyselfI
06-15-2009, 01:35 PM
Bush Lite had about as much to do with this as I did with him getting elected...

The Iranian people do not want or need the US involvement in their internal affairs. They do not want Obummer or anyone else associated with the US to get involved any more than to keep isolating the current president as to not legitimize him.

Nothing more.