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KILLER_CLOWN
08-31-2009, 02:13 PM
Sun Run of 51 Days Without a Spot Now Among the Top 5 Longest

Joseph DíAleo
ICECAP
Monday, August 31, 2009

Sunday, August 30th marks the 51st straight day without a sunspot, one of the longest stretches in a century. One more day and we have a spotless month (we had some by some accounts one last August but a few observatories thought they saw a spot on the sun for a few hours one day). It would be either the first or second spotless month since 1913 depending on whether you count last August as spotless.

Sun Run of 51 Days Without a Spot Now Among the Top 5 Longest solarcycle241 thumb

In fact it rises into 4th place among all spotless periods since 1849 (first table here). Note: It is 5th place if you accept a spotless August 2008 which would have led to a stretch of 52 days. The total number of spotless days this transition from cycle 23 to 24 is now 704, exceeding the number for cycle 15 in the early 1900s (below, enlarged here).

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcycle252_thumb.jpg

We have had 193 spotless days this year (79% of the days). We are in the top 20 years in 16th place. We will very likely rapidly rise up the list in upcoming weeks and rival 2008ís 266 days and likely end in the top 5 years. 2007, 2008, 2009 will only have 1911, 1912, 1913 in the top 20 as string of 3 per transition (below, enlarged here).

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcycle253_thumb.jpg

The cycle minimum probably was December, 2008. January 2009ís 13 month average came up a bit due to slight bump in activity in June and July but if August should end up sunspotless and September low, we could have a double bottom. Still, the 12.7 years assuming December 2008 was longest in two centuries (below, enlarged here).

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcycle254_thumb.jpg

You can see on this chart, by 13 years after the solar minimum year, most of the last 5 cycles already had recovered, in one case already to the solar max of the subseuent cycle (below, enlarged here).

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcycle255_thumb.jpg

This cycle has continued to decline in the solar irradiance, solar flux, sunspot number and geomagnetic activity after 10 years. On the following chart produced by Anthony Watts, you can see the Total Solar Irradiance declining whereas the prior cycle was rebounding (below, enlarged here).

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcycle256_thumb.jpg

Also see the daily TSI which goes through short term cycles at the lowest point of the last few months as of the last plotted measurement.

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Sorce0829_thumb.jpg

Clilverd et al 2006 suggests using a statistical analysis of the various cycles (11, 22, 53, 88, 105, 213, and 426 years) shows the next two cycles will likely be very quiet much like those of 200 years ago in the early 1800s, the so called Dalton Minimum, the time of Dickens (with snows and cold in London like last winter) (below, enlarged here).

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcycle257_thumb.jpg

See what David Archibald shows what the result might be if Clilverd is correct here. Some have not ruled out an even stronger Maunder like Minimum.

Read more in this pdf here.

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html#Number

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcycle252.jpg

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcycle253.jpg

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcycle254.jpg

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcycle255.jpg

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcycle256.jpg

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Sorce0829.jpg

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24Clilverd.pdf

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcycle257.jpg

http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/longer_term_solar_minimum_dalton_or_maunder/

http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=195

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/sun_run_of_41_days_without_a_spot_enters_the_top_10_longest/

mlyonsd
08-31-2009, 02:14 PM
I don't know what you're talking abuot. I just looked at the sun and I'm still seeing spots.

KILLER_CLOWN
08-31-2009, 02:16 PM
I don't know what you're talking abuot. I just looked at the sun and I'm still seeing spots.

ROFL

Are your eyes feeling the effect of man made global warming?

Rain Man
08-31-2009, 03:20 PM
The Obama administration is really cleaning things up.

Brock
08-31-2009, 03:21 PM
I wonder if this why Kansas is having record low highs for this month.

KILLER_CLOWN
08-31-2009, 03:24 PM
I wonder if this why Kansas is having record low highs for this month.

Admit it your SUV is causing the sunspot activity or lack thereof.

Chiefshrink
08-31-2009, 03:28 PM
Gotta be global warming!!