Rain Man

10-26-2009, 12:00 AM

Just for grins, I looked at the last 12 years' 1st round picks and analyzed them by position.

Then I examined how many positions on the field each position occupied, out of 24 positions (including kickers and punters). For example, guards and OLBs each have two starting positions of the 24, whereas QBs and FSs each have one starting position.

Then I divided the proportion of people drafted at each position divided by their proportion of starting spots. For example, quarterbacks represent 8.9 percent of 1st-round picks but would only represent 4.2 percent of picks if all positions were valued equally (i.e., QBs represented 1/24th of all first-round picks).

By dividing these proportions, we can see the draft value of each position on the field. In the index below, a 100 means that the position is valued exactly equally to its propotion of positions on the field. A value of 200 means it's double the value (i.e., produces twice as many first-round picks as expected), and a value of 50 means it's half as valuable (i.e., produces half as many first-round picks as expected).

I then did exactly the same thing for top-ten picks only.

Here we go. Discuss away. They're presented in descending order of the average of the two indices.

Position 1st Round Top 10

QB 214% 380%

HB 246% 260%

CB 159% 200%

WR 159% 190%

DE 152% 160%

OT 133% 150%

DT 137% 133%

OLB 78% 60%

TE 97% 40%

FS 52% 80%

ILB 70% 33%

SS 52% 40%

C 39% 0%

G 26% 0%

K 6% 0%

P 0% 0%

FB 0% 0%

Then I examined how many positions on the field each position occupied, out of 24 positions (including kickers and punters). For example, guards and OLBs each have two starting positions of the 24, whereas QBs and FSs each have one starting position.

Then I divided the proportion of people drafted at each position divided by their proportion of starting spots. For example, quarterbacks represent 8.9 percent of 1st-round picks but would only represent 4.2 percent of picks if all positions were valued equally (i.e., QBs represented 1/24th of all first-round picks).

By dividing these proportions, we can see the draft value of each position on the field. In the index below, a 100 means that the position is valued exactly equally to its propotion of positions on the field. A value of 200 means it's double the value (i.e., produces twice as many first-round picks as expected), and a value of 50 means it's half as valuable (i.e., produces half as many first-round picks as expected).

I then did exactly the same thing for top-ten picks only.

Here we go. Discuss away. They're presented in descending order of the average of the two indices.

Position 1st Round Top 10

QB 214% 380%

HB 246% 260%

CB 159% 200%

WR 159% 190%

DE 152% 160%

OT 133% 150%

DT 137% 133%

OLB 78% 60%

TE 97% 40%

FS 52% 80%

ILB 70% 33%

SS 52% 40%

C 39% 0%

G 26% 0%

K 6% 0%

P 0% 0%

FB 0% 0%