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cdcox
11-16-2009, 07:56 PM
Here is a very brief and easy to understand mathematical analysis that shows that BB made the choice that gave the Patriots the best chance to win. I've seen these kinds of analyses before and had a gut feeling last night that going for it was the right call. My biggest hesitation was the human element -- what would it do to the team if the decision backfired?

Anyway, interesting reading. There are over 200 comments so far on this article. Normal posts on his blog get about 10 responses.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

Deberg_1990
11-16-2009, 08:04 PM
Im sure its been discussed ad nausem already but...


It was a bad call because you dont put your defense in bad position like that if you dont make the play.

Could the Pats still have lost had they punted? Yes. But at least make the opposing team work for the TD.

'Hamas' Jenkins
11-16-2009, 08:04 PM
1) It's a repost
2) It doesn't take into account basic human psychology

cdcox
11-16-2009, 08:08 PM
1) It's a repost
2) It doesn't take into account basic human psychology

1. Yep I missed it.
2. Humans shouldn't be so weak that you have to make bad decisions to accommodate their frailties.

'Hamas' Jenkins
11-16-2009, 08:10 PM
1. Yep I missed it.
2. Humans shouldn't be so weak that you have to make bad decisions to accommodate their frailties.

That's why we're meatbags and not automatons.

Hound333
11-16-2009, 08:23 PM
I know I am in the minority here but I think he made the right call. I would much rather put it on the shoulders of my offense to get a couple of yards than to try and stop Peyton at the end of the game. It just backfired this time. Normally I think we are talking about it being a great call because it worked.

Molitoth
11-16-2009, 09:07 PM
If I had one of the best offense in the NFL with one of the best QB/WR of all time in the backfield, I would go for it too.

9/10 times the Pats make that play and get the call.

The pats defense this year is nothing to brag about, EXPECIALLY playing against Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne.



Belicheck made the right call, you just can't win them all.

The Pats are a big market team with media frenzy written all over them, thats why this was a big deal. If the same call was made in the Raiders/Chiefs game, nobody would give a flying shit.

Short Leash Hootie
11-16-2009, 09:11 PM
Dude...

It's the Patriots. They still have Tom Brady.

It was a great call, and more importantly, the right call.

Peyton Manning was going to win that game regardless...so either way...instead of being chastised for "choking" such a big lead...BB is getting chastised for taking such a big risk that goes against the grain.

It was a great call by a genius head coach...who has a lifetime contract with the Patriots and is a living legend in the Boston area...

A no pressure call for the man with 3 Super Bowl rings.

Brock
11-16-2009, 09:13 PM
If they'd made it Belichick would be hailed as a motivational genius.

BossChief
11-16-2009, 09:14 PM
If they'd made it Belichick would be hailed as a motivational genius.

and they did actually make it.

Molitoth
11-16-2009, 09:26 PM
and they did actually make it.

naw, he was bobbling the ball.

Misplaced_Chiefs_Fan
11-16-2009, 09:44 PM
Actually, if Mahoney hadn't fumbled into the end zone, this whole conversation is academic.

veist
11-17-2009, 01:33 AM
Personally, I think his analysis ignores two factors making it not comparable to a generic success rate:
Hoodie calling his last time out following that tv time out put the defense in a position where they knew the pats were going for it within 25 seconds from that play clock ticking the defense could play like they knew that it was going to be a short pass because that's the only real chance they have to win and the Pats don't trust their run game

Finally, I'm curious as to what the breakdown is from that aggregate success rate between the various combinations of above/avg/below offenses and defenses. Just be interesting to see if one occurs significantly more often.

Raised On Riots
11-17-2009, 01:44 AM
Have we really fallen so far that we feel the need to analyze the hoodie on this board?

Tuckdaddy
11-17-2009, 06:53 AM
He did trying save time on the clock. They getb the 2 and they win. If they don't then Colts get the TD fast and leave Brady enough time to get into FG range. The best thing to happen for the Colts was Joseph getting tackled at the one.

JD10367
11-17-2009, 06:59 AM
Without discussing the rest of the game (fumbles, time outs, whatnot), just analyzing that sole 4th-and-2 decision, I think it sucked. You DO NOT give Peyton Manning 30 yards to go to win a game. You just don't. Yeah, by going for it, you can say he was showing confidence in his O, but he was also showing a lack of confidence in his D. You punt from the 30, they get it at the 30 and, probably at best, run it back to midfield.

(And, frankly, if they were going to try a 4th-and-2, he would've been MUCH smarter to fake-punt. No one would expect them to go for it on their own 30, so a fake would've had a much better chance of getting the 1st down.)

That playcall has the potential to ruin the season for them. Even assuming it doesn't impact the AFC East race, it might make the difference between the Pats getting a bye week or having to play an extra game, not to mention it's probably the difference between playing the Colts in the playoffs in Gillette vs. at Indy. A lot to risk, on a very risky play.

cdcox
11-17-2009, 08:21 AM
The thing I always come back to is, if my team is in the place of the Pats, when we stop them on 3rd down and I expect a punt I feel a sense of relief. "The defense did there job, we are going to get the ball back!" When the other team decides to go for it, I always hate that. "Arghhh, we have to stop them AGAIN". I have never, ever thought "Oh goody! They are going for it, I can't believe how lucky we are!"

Raised On Riots
11-17-2009, 08:25 AM
The thing I always come back to is, if my team is in the place of the Pats, when we stop them on 3rd down and I expect a punt I feel a sense of relief. "The defense did there job, we are going to get the ball back!" When the other team decides to go for it, I always hate that. "Arghhh, we have to stop them AGAIN". I have never, ever thought "Oh goody! They are going for it, I can't believe how lucky we are!"

LMAO This.

DBOSHO
11-17-2009, 08:27 AM
Espn will NOT STFU about it. Trent Dilfer was criticizing it to no end.

Think about that...

DBOSHO
11-17-2009, 08:30 AM
The thing I always come back to is, if my team is in the place of the Pats, when we stop them on 3rd down and I expect a punt I feel a sense of relief. "The defense did there job, we are going to get the ball back!" When the other team decides to go for it, I always hate that. "Arghhh, we have to stop them AGAIN". I have never, ever thought "Oh goody! They are going for it, I can't believe how lucky we are!"

this. Especially on madden.

geronimo
11-17-2009, 09:06 AM
I think it was not a good decision but understandable. If they make it he's still the genius everyone says he is. Since they didn't people get a chance to take a shot at him. Its understandable in that he went with his team's strength, ie Brady and the offense. The Defense was getting sliced up pretty good by Indy towards the end. It was just 2 yards. Steve Young made a good point saying its a better decision without taking the timeout. I think the timeout hurt them b/c it gave Indy time to regroup and scheme. IMHO that's huge. I was against the call when he made the decision. I think you give your defense a chance to win it especially since the offense had failed to sustain the drive. Not a huge error just a judgment call that went the wrong way from NE's perspective.

jidar
11-17-2009, 10:50 AM
I have been telling people since I first heard about it (damnit, missed the game) that Payton Manning scoring a TD from his own 30 happens more often than Tom Brady failing to get 2 yards.
It was the right call.

Buck
11-17-2009, 10:55 AM
DUuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuDE,

When are you going to update your website?

I'd like to see what percent chance you give the Chargers to win the division after last Sunday.

Currently you have them at an 11.82% chance I think.

DaFace
11-17-2009, 11:08 AM
DUuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuDE,

When are you going to update your website?

I'd like to see what percent chance you give the Chargers to win the division after last Sunday.

Currently you have them at an 11.82% chance I think.

The software's pretty easy to use. You don't have to wait on him to update the blog.

Winning Division:
Denver 73.76
San Diego 26.24

Making Playoffs:
Denver 93.34
San Diego 71.0

If I understand how it works correctly, that may shift a bit more once the "power rankings" are updated.

Buck
11-17-2009, 06:33 PM
The software's pretty easy to use. You don't have to wait on him to update the blog.

Winning Division:
Denver 73.76
San Diego 26.24

Making Playoffs:
Denver 93.34
San Diego 71.0

If I understand how it works correctly, that may shift a bit more once the "power rankings" are updated.

Interesting.

I would put it at 50-50 right now. Whoever wins the next game will be the runaway favorite.

DaFace
11-17-2009, 06:40 PM
Interesting.

I would put it at 50-50 right now. Whoever wins the next game will be the runaway favorite.

If SD wins next week, the odds of winning the division shift to 65% SD and 35% Denver. If Denver wins, the odds are 91% Denver and 9% SD. So yeah, it's a pretty important game.

Again, these odds are based on last week's efficiency ratings, so Denver is probably looking a little stronger than they should be. The loss to Washington should drop them down a bit.

cdcox
11-17-2009, 08:23 PM
This situation is almost the exact opposite of last year, even though it looks the same.

Last year, San Diego was rated as the better team, while Denver is rated as the better team this year (at least so far).

I was predicting a SD win of the division pretty late in the year (week 12) even though Denver had a substantial lead.

This year, I'm still showing Denver having a better chance to win the division, even though they are falling fast in the standings.

We'll see.