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View Full Version : Economics Oops, Obama's economy numbers don't add up, again ?


ROYC75
11-24-2009, 01:29 PM
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091124/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy


Reports on GDP and consumers signal modest rebound
AP By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa, Ap Economics Writer 1 hr 17 mins ago

WASHINGTON The economy is growing modestly, with consumers too wary about spending to invigorate the recovery.

That's the picture that emerged from reports Tuesday on the economy and the confidence of consumers, who power 70 percent of it.

Unemployment and tight credit have sapped shoppers' willingness and ability to spend freely as retailers enter their crucial holiday season. And Americans are expected to grow more cautious about spending next year. That would make for a plodding recovery.

The economy grew at a 2.8 percent rate last quarter. Forecasts for the current quarter are for similarly lackluster growth before a drop-off next year.

"It's hardly a rip-roaring recovery," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services. "Usually coming out of a recession you get growth more like a rodeo bull at a pace of 6 or 7 percent in the early quarters of recovery. That isn't happening. It is coming out of the stalls more like a fat cow."

The Commerce Department's revised estimate of gross domestic product for July through September was less than the 3.5 percent growth rate foreseen just a month ago. And the estimate for GDP the value of goods and services produced in the United States was a tad less than the 2.9 percent growth rate that economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected.

The main factors behind the downgrade: Consumers didn't spend as much. Commercial construction weakened. And imports exerted more of a drag on the economy. Businesses also trimmed more of their stockpiles, further restraining growth.

At the same time, the Conference Board's latest survey of consumer confidence found gloom among shoppers.

"I really won't be spending money on Christmas," said Ivan Horne, 47, of Tampa, Fla., who has been out of work for about a year. "I'm barely able to make enough to survive."

An Associated Press-GfK poll released this week found that 93 percent of Americans say they'll spend less this holiday season or about the same as last year.

Also Tuesday, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities suggested that the summer's trend of rising home prices is slowing. And analysts expect prices to dip again this winter as foreclosures rise.

The tepid reading on economic growth and consumer confidence caused stocks to retreat from their 13-month highs. Over the past few months, though, the stock market has surged. A rally on Monday carried the Dow up 133 points to its highest point in just over a year.

In part, stocks have been powered by a weak dollar and low interest rates. Lower rates let companies and investors borrow cheaply. They also cause some to shift money out of cash and bonds and into investments that promise higher returns, such as stocks.

Stocks also have benefited from higher corporate profits. Companies have managed to squeeze out more profits without the cost of higher production or payrolls. They've done so by boosting their workers' productivity and drawing down their existing stockpiles of goods.

The GDP report showed the economy finally started to grow again from July through September, after a record four straight losing quarters. Yet growth probably won't be strong enough to quickly drive down the nation's unemployment rate, now at 10.2 percent.

For the current quarter, some analysts think economic growth will slow to around a 2.5 percent pace, but it could hit a pace of around 3 percent if holiday sales turn out better than expected.

Though cautious, consumers are holding up despite high personal debt, a tight job market and hard-to-get credit. A government report out Wednesday is expected to show consumer spending rose 0.5 percent in October, compared with a 0.5 percent drop in September. Incomes, the fuel for future spending, are expected to edge up 0.2 percent, after being flat.

Many economists say they think the economy will weaken again next year. Some project growth at a pace of around 1 percent as the benefits of the $787 billion stimulus package fade and consumers keep tightening.

"I think when the bills come in January, you'll see consumers pull back," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight. "It's going to be a slow-motion recovery."

In the third quarter, the Cash for Clunkers rebates and an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers juiced up sales of cars and homes. The clunkers program ended in August. But the tax credit has been extended and expanded beyond first-time buyers.

It's unclear whether the recovery can endure after government supports are gone. If consumers clam up, the economy could tip back into recession.

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Dingbats, we are still in a recession, nothing has changed except some smoking mirror programs by Obama to get the people to think something good has worked. Guess what,It hasn't happened.

I've said all along the recession #'s won't really change until May 2010. The next 4 months are going to be the hardest yet for many Americans to get by on.

The Mad Crapper
08-25-2010, 06:36 AM
DOW will be back under 9000 by the end of the week.

ROYC75
08-25-2010, 09:01 AM
Damn, my recession #'s prediction changed, but short lived, we are sinking again Mr. Obama. What shall we do now oh great leader ?

Yes folks, a double dip recession is in order. Housing market has crashed again, lowest in 17 years.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100825/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy



:shake:

ROYC75
08-25-2010, 09:17 PM
The housing market is spiraling downward ......... great economy boom we are in.

Velvet_Jones
08-26-2010, 02:23 AM
new math = 1 + 5 = chair

Chief Henry
08-26-2010, 03:33 AM
I've got a great idea on how to spur economic activity. Lets raise taxes especially dividend income from 15% to 28%.

Paying dividends is one the best ways for a corporation to prove that they are not cooking the books. THis tax increase will just make CEO's not want to pay dividends and start creating loop holes to store cahs and profits.

Brainiac
09-02-2010, 05:15 AM
I've got a great idea on how to spur economic activity. Lets raise taxes especially dividend income from 15% to 28%.

Paying dividends is one the best ways for a corporation to prove that they are not cooking the books. THis tax increase will just make CEO's not want to pay dividends and start creating loop holes to store cahs and profits.

While we're at it, let's dramatically raise health care costs, and for the coup de grace, and let's raise income taxes too!