PDA

View Full Version : Obama Rasmussen Poll. Seems its a trend?


HonestChieffan
12-13-2009, 07:22 AM
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Saturday, December 12, 2009

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -16. That’s the lowest Approval Index rating yet recorded for this President (see trends).

The 25% who Strongly Approve matches the lowest level of enthusiasm yet recorded. That’s partly the result of declining enthusiasm among Democrats. While Democrats continue to offer their approval, just 43% Strongly Approve.

Among all voters, 36% now believe that the president is doing a good or an excellent job handling the economy while 45% rate his performance in this area as poor. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Democrats say he’s doing a good or excellent job on the economy while 74% of Republicans say poor. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 52% give the President poor marks when it comes to the economy.

On national security matters, 39% rate the president’s performance as good or excellent while 36% say poor. Most voters nationwide lack confidence that NATO will do its part to help in Afghanistan. The President’s new plan for Afghanistan draws mixed reviews from voters.

Check out our review of the week’s key polls to see “What They Told Us.”

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook.

Overall, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

Most Nevada voters oppose the health care plan working its way through Congress and that’s one reason Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is trailing a group of little known Republicans in his bid for re-election. Rasmussen Reports has released updated polls on the 2010 Senate races in Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and California. Overall, the results confirm the conventional wisdom that the mid-term election season is off to a tough start for the Democrats. However, there is a long way to go until November.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/media/obama_index_graphics/december_2009/obama_approval_index_december_12_2009/271273-1-eng-US/obama_approval_index_december_12_2009.jpg

Scott Rasmussen has recently had several columns published in the Wall Street Journal addressing how President Obama is losing independent voters , health care reform, the President's approval ratings, and how Obama won the White House by campaigning like Ronald Reagan. If you'd like Scott Rasmussen to speak at your meeting, retreat, or conference, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau. You can also learn about Scott's favorite place on earth or his time working with hockey legend Gordie Howe.

It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama's numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the President's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. It is also important to check the details of question wording when comparing approval ratings from different firms.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/media/obama_total_approval_graphics/december_2009/obama_total_approval_december_12_2009/271276-1-eng-US/obama_total_approval_december_12_2009.jpg

Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology).

Pollster.com founder Mark Blumenthal noted that “independent analyses from the National Council on Public Polls, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the Pew Research Center, the Wall Street Journal and FiveThirtyEight.com have all shown that the horse-race numbers produced by automated telephone surveys did at least as well as those from conventional live-interviewer surveys in predicting election outcomes.”

In the 2009 New Jersey Governor’s race, automated polls tended to be more accurate than operator-assisted polling techniques. On reviewing the state polling results from 2009, Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, “If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!” During Election 2008, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com said that the Rasmussen tracking poll “would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island."

A Fordham University professor rated the national pollsters on their record in Election 2008. We also have provided a summary of our results for your review. In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote.

An analysis by Pollster.com partner Charles Franklin “found that despite identically sized three-day samples, the Rasmussen daily tracking poll is less variable than Gallup.” During Election 2008, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll was the least volatile of all those tracking the race.

In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project both candidates’ totals within half a percentage point by projecting that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. (see our 2004 results).

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters--is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Premium Members.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Over the past five years, the number of Democrats in the country has increased while the number of Republicans has decreased.

Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 37.1% Democrats, 32.4% Republicans, and 30.5% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. Other stats on Obama are updated daily on the Rasmussen Reports Obama By the Numbers page. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.

Saul Good
12-13-2009, 08:35 AM
These polls are all over the place. Somebody could have drawn a better graph with crayons.

Saul Good
12-13-2009, 09:05 AM
HCF, take a look at today's numbers. Yikes.

HonestChieffan
12-13-2009, 09:09 AM
Zounds.


Maybe the White House could use the Climate Guys to work the numbers over and get this turned around.

Saul Good
12-13-2009, 09:45 AM
Maybe they can find some tree ring data to hide the decline in his poll numbers.

Chief Henry
12-14-2009, 08:30 AM
What are your thoughts on this. Why is this happening ?

Is it more unemployment ?

Is it his current decision on Afghanistan ?

Could it be the health care fiasco ?

Could it be that he's not living up to his campaign promises of an open gov't ?

What about his promise of going through the budget line by line ?



Whats going on with the Messiah's polling ?

memyselfI
12-14-2009, 09:03 AM
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZMqc6Qtu08A/SSNr4-xdcgI/AAAAAAAAAVI/bxURHwMcqT4/s400/see+hear+speak+no+evil.jpg

jjjayb
12-14-2009, 09:35 AM
What are your thoughts on this. Why is this happening ?

Is it more unemployment ?

Is it his current decision on Afghanistan ?

Could it be the health care fiasco ?

Could it be that he's not living up to his campaign promises of an open gov't ?

What about his promise of going through the budget line by line ?



Whats going on with the Messiah's polling ?

So many people had built him up to be the profound savior of our country before the election. They were mesmerized by his speeches. They believed in hope and change. The curtain has been pulled back. A lot of people now realize what they thought was change, was just another politician with a pretty speech.

Velvet_Jones
12-14-2009, 09:35 AM
I'm going to take a page from the book of jAZ and respond with the following:


Is it more unemployment ?
He is a liar.

Is it his current decision on Afghanistan ?
He is a liar.

Could it be the health care fiasco ?
He is a liar.

Could it be that he's not living up to his campaign promises of an open gov't ?
He is a liar.

What about his promise of going through the budget line by line ?
He is a liar.

Whats going on with the Messiah's polling ?
Joe Biden is a liar.

I think that pretty much sums it up.

Saul Good
12-14-2009, 06:27 PM
From today's numbers:

Overall, 44% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That’s the lowest level yet measured for this president. Previously, his overall approval rating had fallen to 45% twice, once in early September and once in late November.

Fifty-five percent (55%) now disapprove.

Norman Einstein
12-15-2009, 03:45 AM
What are your thoughts on this. Why is this happening ?

Is it more unemployment ?

Is it his current decision on Afghanistan ?

Could it be the health care fiasco ?

Could it be that he's not living up to his campaign promises of an open gov't ?

What about his promise of going through the budget line by line ?


Hirelings. He has picked a very poor staff and administration.

Norman Einstein
12-15-2009, 03:50 AM
So many people had built him up to be the profound savior of our country before the election. They were mesmerized by his speeches. They believed in hope and change. The curtain has been pulled back. A lot of people now realize what they thought was change, was just another politician with a pretty speech.

The worst part of it all is that he is only good at delivering speeches when written by his staff, I doubt he could write one himself and deliver it as he does with the words of others. He's also pretty much still lost without a teleprompter. In any given speech watch his head and his eyes, seldom does he look forward, he is virtually always swinging his head like windshield wipers, usually on slow speed. He does have a good rhythmical repeatability with the swings though.

patteeu
12-15-2009, 05:27 AM
What are your thoughts on this. Why is this happening ?

Is it more unemployment ?

Is it his current decision on Afghanistan ?

Could it be the health care fiasco ?

Could it be that he's not living up to his campaign promises of an open gov't ?

What about his promise of going through the budget line by line ?



Whats going on with the Messiah's polling ?

The truth is seeping in slowly.

Chief Henry
12-16-2009, 08:51 AM
The truth is seeping in slowly.

40% approve of the messiah's idea of national health care
56% diasapprove of his national health care plans

Calcountry
12-16-2009, 11:01 AM
Zounds.


Maybe the White House could use the Climate Guys to work the numbers over and get this turned around.LMAO

Calcountry
12-16-2009, 11:02 AM
40% approve of the messiah's idea of national health care
56% diasapprove of his national health care plansThe best thing that could happen to the Democrat Party is to kill the bill.

SNR
12-16-2009, 11:18 AM
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZMqc6Qtu08A/SSNr4-xdcgI/AAAAAAAAAVI/bxURHwMcqT4/s400/see+hear+speak+no+evil.jpgThat's racist.

Chief Henry
12-16-2009, 01:19 PM
The best thing that could happen to the Democrat Party is to kill the bill.

Are they smart enough for that ?

They're base in the leftist, liberal world will hang them out to dry.

Calcountry
12-16-2009, 03:03 PM
Are they smart enough for that ?

They're base in the leftist, liberal world will hang them out to dry.They will get over it. Obama will blame Bush for it, they will believe it.

Chief Henry
12-16-2009, 04:00 PM
They will get over it. Obama will blame Bush for it, they will believe it.



You mean they are sheep :o)

BigRedChief
12-16-2009, 07:03 PM
The truth is seeping in slowly.Maybe, but its still to be determined. Lest we forget, Reagan had the same poll numbers in his presidency. The economy turned around and it was an 8 year presidency. If the economy turns arouns, we could be looking at history repeating itself.

mlyonsd
12-16-2009, 07:11 PM
Maybe, but its still to be determined. Lest we forget, Reagan had the same poll numbers in his presidency. The economy turned around and it was an 8 year presidency. If the economy turns arouns, we could be looking at history repeating itself.

The difference is, if the economy turns around and the dems take credit the question will be asked...."When the next recession hits do we throw another trillion dollars into the coal furnace just to turn it around for a while with no long term job growth"?

In case you haven't noticed independents are paying attention now. Dems made a big mistake thinking their elitist plans would play to the masses when in the end they are just looking out for themselves.

Saul Good
12-16-2009, 07:25 PM
The truth is seeping in slowly.

Not that slowly.