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View Full Version : U.S. Issues Scott Brown: Moves into lead in fresh poll...


petegz28
01-15-2010, 11:13 AM
Scott Brown is riding a wave. It could break before it hits shore, or, it could crash through the Democratic seawall of state politics and send him all the way to the U.S. Senate.

Our exclusive 7NEWS/Suffolk University Poll shows Brown, with 50%, in front of Coakley with 46%. Independent Joe Kennedy gets 3% and just 1% is still undecided.

How quickly has this race turned around?

In November, Coakley was beating Brown by 31 percentage points. Now, Brown is up by 4% -- a change of 35% in two months.

Suffolk Poll University pollster David Paleologos said, "Here's how the race breaks down. Scott Brown wins among men, Martha Coakley among women. Democrats: Coakley. Republicans and Independents: Brown, by a wide, wide margin."

"Im not in your courtroom. Im not a defendant. Let me answer the question, Brown said to Coakley in the last debate.

One reason for Coakley's collapse is her performance in debates. Nearly half of likely voters say they've seen one and asked who won -- 41% say Brown, 25% Coakley.

During the campaign Coakley said, "I want to be a leader who's ready to get real results on health care reform...

And Coakley is not being helped by her pledge to help pass the Democrat's national health care bill. Fifty-one percent of likely voters here say no to it while 36% say yes. Sixty-one percent think Washington can't afford it.

Vicki Kennedy said, "As Ted would say, 'January 19th is the date, Martha Coakley is the candidate.'"

Another surprise -- The Kennedy family's endorsement may have actually hurt Coakley. With 27% said it makes them less likely to vote for her... 20% more likely.

"The Kennedy endorsement resonates among registered Democrats, but registered Democrats are spoken for," Paleologos said.

And here's one more surprise. While Brown is beating Coakley head-to-head, 64% of voters we surveyed say Coakley will win the election.

"People don't believe that the rest of the state of Massachusetts will vote for Scott Brown, despite the fact that they personally will vote for Scott Brown," Paleologos said.

If -- repeat if -- Scott Brown wins next Tuesday, it is no exaggeration to say he will change the world of politics as we know it.

http://www1.whdh.com/features/articles/hiller/BO133471/

petegz28
01-15-2010, 01:45 PM
Not sure who Pajamamedia is but they have a poll for them and it has Brown up 15%. From what I gathered, it was heavily weighted with Independents.

http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2010/01/14/massachusetts-shocker-brown-up-15-in-pajamas-mediacrosstarget-poll/

I guess Crosstarget did the poll.

And from some of the comments on the board, one of the locals stated that 17% of Mass. Dems are supporting Brown. With the Independents leaning largley in favor of Brown he might just pull this out.

Taco John
01-15-2010, 02:25 PM
I wouldn't trust anything that comes out of pajamasmedia.

BucEyedPea
01-15-2010, 04:02 PM
Not sure who Pajamamedia is but they have a poll for them and it has Brown up 15%. From what I gathered, it was heavily weighted with Independents.

http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2010/01/14/massachusetts-shocker-brown-up-15-in-pajamas-mediacrosstarget-poll/

I guess Crosstarget did the poll.

And from some of the comments on the board, one of the locals stated that 17% of Mass. Dems are supporting Brown. With the Independents leaning largley in favor of Brown he might just pull this out.
Pajamasmedia isn't fully reliable....they're also hard-core NC too.
I'd like them to be right about this though.

Bearcat2005
01-16-2010, 02:13 PM
RCP is always good and closely accurate in their polling average.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_special_election-1144.html

They included the PJ poll though.... weird.

Bearcat2005
01-16-2010, 02:21 PM
RCP is always good and closely accurate in their polling average.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_special_election-1144.html

They included the PJ poll though.... weird.


Yes I am qouting myself...

RCP included a R leaning poll in PJ and a D leaning one in Blue Mass, so that must be why they included such in their poll average.

petegz28
01-16-2010, 03:05 PM
RCP is always good and closely accurate in their polling average.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_special_election-1144.html

They included the PJ poll though.... weird.

Seems the only polls that have Coakley ahead is the Boston Globe (big surprise there) and Blue Mass Group. The rest save a Rasmussen poll from Tuesday have Brown ahead.

Bearcat2005
01-16-2010, 03:43 PM
Seems the only polls that have Coakley ahead is the Boston Globe (big surprise there) and Blue Mass Group. The rest save a Rasmussen poll from Tuesday have Brown ahead.

The fact the Brown is polling this close (might win) demonstrates I believe what a huge disadvantage the dems have right now in the midterms. Coakley though hasn't really done anything to help her chances.
On another note if Obama comes in on Sunday like he is suppose to to endorse her and speak on her behalf, and then she loses, that would be a political embarassment. Its a catch 22 for him though, if he doesn't go then many on the left will be upset with him for not trying.

HerculesRockefell
01-16-2010, 05:14 PM
On another note if Obama comes in on Sunday like he is suppose to to endorse her and speak on her behalf, and then she loses, that would be a political embarassment. Its a catch 22 for him though, if he doesn't go then many on the left will be upset with him for not trying.

Obama's already lost here, regardless of who wins, it's going to be a close race in a state that he won by 27 (IIRC) 15 months ago. With his healthcare being one of the central issues, he's going to take a hit for a close race as a repudiation of that policy.

He either goes to Mass to protect the 60 votes and he takes a negative hit whether she wins or loses, or he stays home and takes a negative hit whether she wins or loses. The hit is going to come, so he might as well go try to put her over the top.

And if Brown does win, any Dem in a close House District is going to be scared to death come November.