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View Full Version : Economics Economy grows at fastest pace in 6 years. GDP up 5.7% in Q4.


BigRedChief
01-29-2010, 07:41 AM
Starting a new "economy" thread. The other one is too long to find stuff.

Economy grows at fastest pace in 6 years
GDP data show 5.7 percent rate in Q4, faster pace than expected
BREAKING NEWS
Reuters
updated 7:33 a.m. CT, Fri., Jan. 29, 2010

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The U.S. economy grew at a faster-than-expected 5.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the quickest pace in more than six years, as businesses reduced inventories less aggressively, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

The first estimate put fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth at its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003. The economy expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, growing at a 4.6 percent rate in October-December period.

Growth was boosted a sharp slowdown in the pace of inventory liquidation, a factor that could mask the strength of the economic recovery from the longest and deepest downturn since the Great Depression.

But even stripping out inventories, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2 percent, accelerating from the 1.5 percent increase in the third quarter, reflecting relatively strong performance from other segments of the economy.

Business inventories fell only $33.5 billion in fourth quarter after dropping $139.2 billion in the July-September period. The change in inventories alone added 3.39 percentage points to GDP in the last quarter. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987.
For the whole of 2009, the economy contracted 2.4 percent, the biggest decline since 1946, the first year after the end of World War II, the department said.

In the last three months of 2009, consumer spending increased at a 2 percent annual rate, below the 2.8 percent annual pace in the prior quarter when consumption got a boost from the government's "cash for clunkers" program.

In the forth quarter, consumer spending contributed 1.44 percentage points to GDP.

Consumer spending, which normally accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, has been held back by the worst labor market in a quarter century.


Business investment in the fourth quarter grew for the first time since the second quarter of 2008 as the drag from the troubled commercial real estate was offset by robust spending on equipment and software. Business investment rose at a 2.9 percent rate after falling 5.9 percent over the previous three-month period.

The growth of spending on new home construction braked sharply in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 5.7 percent from an 18.9 percent pace in the third quarter. Home building has received a lift from a popular tax credit for first-time buyers, but recent data have hinted at some weakness starting to creep in.

Export growth outpaced imports, leaving a trade gap that contributed half a percentage point to GDP growth in the last quarter.

Copyright 2010 Reuters. Click for restrictions.

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petegz28
01-29-2010, 07:45 AM
Great, so no job increases, Fed is forcing rates low and GDP is up over 5%. I would say inflation is going to smack us in the mouth.

BigRedChief
01-29-2010, 07:46 AM
Great, so no job increases, Fed is forcing rates low and GDP is up over 5%. I would say inflation is going to smack us in the mouth.jeeezzzz. :doh!:

You'd bitch if they hung you with a new rope.

petegz28
01-29-2010, 07:47 AM
jeeezzzz. :doh!:

You'd bitch if they hung you with a new rope.

Where am I bitching? I am pointing out the facts. If the fucking GDP is growing at a 5.7% clip then the fucking Fed is screwing us by keeping interest rates this low.

BigRedChief
01-29-2010, 07:53 AM
Where am I bitching? I am pointing out the facts. If the ****ing GDP is growing at a 5.7% clip then the ****ing Fed is screwing us by keeping interest rates this low.The best economic news in what....forever and your first thought is to bitch about low interest rates? Should the Fed have already raised rates? No one is saying that so your bitching about low interest rates during the worst recession evah is just partisan BS.

HonestChieffan
01-29-2010, 07:54 AM
We could use some good news coupled with a bit of relief from all the smack down talk aimed at business so the stock market can settle down. All the uncertainty is a mess.

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 07:55 AM
Growth was boosted by a sharp slowdown in the pace of inventory liquidation, a factor that could mask the strength of the economic recovery from the longest and deepest downturn since the Great Depression.

But even stripping out inventories, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2 percent, accelerating from the 1.5 percent increase in the third quarter, reflecting relatively strong performance from other segments of the economy.

Actually closer to 2.2%, (NOT 5.7% like it says in the thread title) in the 4th quarter...


For the whole of 2009, the economy contracted 2.4 percent, the biggest decline since 1946, the first year after the end of World War II, the department said.

...Giving us a negative 2.4% for the year.


In the fourth quarter, consumer spending contributed 1.44 percentage points to GDP.

Consumer spending, which normally accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, has been held back by the worst labor market in a quarter century.

Nobody is spending because nobody has any money. During a good economy, consumer spending accounts for 70% of economic activity...

In the 4th quarter it was less than 2% and probably negative for the year.

Export growth outpaced imports, leaving a trade gap that contributed half a percentage point to GDP growth in the last quarter.

I guess the cheap dollar is paying off for businesses and overseas consumers, but it's screwing American citizens.

So...

Am I supposed to be impressed with this? :rolleyes:

petegz28
01-29-2010, 07:58 AM
The best economic news in what....forever and your first thought is to bitch about low interest rates? Should the Fed have already raised rates? No one is saying that so your bitching about low interest rates during the worst recession evah is just partisan BS.

I think the difference between you and I here is you are looking at the number at face value and I am applying a broader context to it. You can sit there and claim I am bitching all you want. The fact is the jobless rate continues to climb, interest rates are artificially low and now GDP is starting to pick up. Yes,

Oh, and BTW, mouth...


KC bank chief dissents as Fed stands pat on monetary policy

http://www.kansascity.com/business/story/1712558.html


So shove it up your ass with the "no one has said that" crap.

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 08:03 AM
I think the difference between you and I here is you are looking at the number at face value and I am applying a broader context to it. You can sit there and claim I am bitching all you want. The fact is the jobless rate continues to climb, interest rates are artificially low and now GDP is starting to pick up.

Pete, here's the actual report with graphs:

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2010/pdf/gdp4q09_adv.pdf

BigRedChief
01-29-2010, 08:03 AM
I think the difference between you and I here is you are looking at the number at face value and I am applying a broader context to it. You can sit there and claim I am bitching all you want. The fact is the jobless rate continues to climb, interest rates are artificially low and now GDP is starting to pick up. Yes,

Oh, and BTW, mouth...





So shove it up your ass with the "no one has said that" crap.
As I've said many time....My knowledge of how an economy works is for chit but even I know you don't raise interest rates in the worst recession since the great depression.

I'm not saying interest rates don't need to rise now, just saying until the economy got up off the floor we shouldn't have raised rates. 2nd straight quarter of growth = increase of interest rates. Has to happen.

petegz28
01-29-2010, 08:06 AM
As I've said many time....My knowledge of how an economy works is for chit but even I know you don't raise interest rates in the worst recession since the great depression.

I'm not saying interest rates don't need to rise now, just saying until the economy got up off the floor we shouldn't have raised rates. 2nd straight quarter of growth = increase of interest rates. Has to happen.

You don't keep them artificially low either. That is one reason we got in the mess we are in.

Royal Fanatic
01-29-2010, 08:21 AM
This is indeed great news, and it's proof that Obama is doing a bang up job as President.

By the way, how's the unemployment rate these days? Didn't Obama tell us last April that if we passed the trillion dollar stimulus package that the unemployment rate would never go above 8%? How's that working out?

What? Now we need to pass a JOBS BILL?

Obama likes to use the word "unsustainable". How sustainable is it to spend a trillion dollars on every problem?

petegz28
01-29-2010, 08:23 AM
I'll admittedly yield some to what Native has to say on this as he is pretty sharp economically. But until then I stand by what I said.

BigRedChief
01-29-2010, 08:26 AM
You don't keep them artificially low either. That is one reason we got in the mess we are in.huh? low interest rates were a symptom not a cause. The reason/cause for this recession was the artificial housing and financial bubble bursting. There is plenty of blame to go around for creating that bubble on both sides of the aisle.

petegz28
01-29-2010, 08:39 AM
huh? low interest rates were a symptom not a cause. The reason/cause for this recession was the artificial housing and financial bubble bursting. There is plenty of blame to go around for creating that bubble on both sides of the aisle.

BS. Interest rates were kept at artificially low levels and it spurred a lot of bad real estate deals among other things. Do a little research.

jiveturkey
01-29-2010, 08:55 AM
BS. Interest rates were kept at artificially low levels and it spurred a lot of bad real estate deals among other things. Do a little research.He's right. There wouldn't have been a housing bubble if rates weren't as low as they were. It's made for a nice feeding frenzy.

I believe that Greenspan has admitted to this being a big mistake on his part.

mlyonsd
01-29-2010, 08:56 AM
This is good news and proof the unspent stimulus dollars are no longer needed.

If we promise to give the credit to the dems for turning around the economy can we do the right thing for our children by cancelling all remaining stimulus dollars? Pretty please?

BucEyedPea
01-29-2010, 09:14 AM
GDP includes govt spending folks. It's BS! It means the govt is growing.

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 09:18 AM
GDP includes govt spending folks. It's BS! It means the govt is growing.

Correct.

:clap:

KC native
01-29-2010, 09:24 AM
GDP includes govt spending folks. It's BS! It means the govt is growing.

:rolleyes: The articles listed tell you where the growth came from.

BucEyedPea
01-29-2010, 09:26 AM
Did you say something?

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 09:27 AM
:rolleyes: The articles listed tell you where the growth came from.

Yeah, cash for clunkers.

:doh!:

BucEyedPea
01-29-2010, 09:29 AM
Yeah, cash for clunkers.

:doh!:

I know. There's still govt spending in the overall stat including spending money to make people buy to jack up the stat. It's just BS!

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 09:32 AM
What a joke, this economy is in the shitbox because of that Marxist in the White House

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/short-term-thinking-is-killing-america-tuck-prof.-says-blaming-obama-415181.html?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,SPY,FXI,TBT,UUP,GLD

KC native
01-29-2010, 09:34 AM
This is a good print however it was fully expected. I'm very surprised at the 5.7% number but a majority of it was due to inventory restocking (I wouldn't be surprised if it's revised half a percent lower on the second print though). That being said the 2.2% coming from non-inventories is nice and is actually the best news for the print.

This is a great example of something being priced into the market though. We get a massive upside surprise to GDP and the markets are up less than a % (as I type). This just solidifies my opinion (for me at least) that the market is extremely overbought short term and the odds of a big dip just got higher. Right now equities markets are pricing in good growth and a return to prior profit margins. I just don't see that happening in Q1 and Q2 of this year especially because businesses have been good about pre-emptively cutting costs in this recession and you can only cut so much. I think we'll see the markets sell off pretty good once stocks start to disappoint in the first half of the year.

As far as the Fed and interest rates, I like that Hoening is coming out against the consensus view. He's been somewhat critical of how things have been handled and it's going to be interesting to see how much play his dissent gets. I think that it's still a little too early to raise rates but the Fed does need to start withdrawing some of their support for all things financial. If they start pulling back on the mortgage buying and other support programs going on then I think we can avoid pernicious inflation after the second half of this year.

KC native
01-29-2010, 09:36 AM
Did you say something?

Hey the return of the fake ignore. You are such an awesome poster BEP. :thumb:

BucEyedPea
01-29-2010, 09:37 AM
Did you say something?

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 09:40 AM
I know. There's still govt spending in the overall stat including spending money to make people buy to jack up the stat. It's just BS!

In a "normal" economy, consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP, but in the 4th Q of last year, it was less than 2%. ROFL

But the government isn't manipulating anything. :rolleyes:

HonestChieffan
01-29-2010, 09:41 AM
Inventory restocking?

talastan
01-29-2010, 09:42 AM
Yeah, cash for clunkers.

:doh!:

First time homebuyers tax credits, increased Food Stamps and Unemployment Benefits means people will have more money to spend and the government can also count it as spending as well. The growth is artifical and completely based on the government propping it up. You'll see it fall in the next year.

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 09:42 AM
Inventory restocking?

ROFL

It's just a freak thing!

KC native
01-29-2010, 09:47 AM
Inventory restocking?

Yes, businesses did a great job of running slim inventories in anticipation/during the early part of the recession. As their activity picks up they have been needing to make bigger purchases to get their inventories to a level where they can support their increased activity. Thus, we got a huge contribution from inventory restocking.

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 09:49 AM
Right, because when consumer spending is less than 2%, the priority would be to restock inventory in anticipation of consumer spending increasing in 2010. Shit, it just very well may double---

To 4%.

KC native
01-29-2010, 09:51 AM
Right, because when consumer spending is less than 2%, the priority would be to restock inventory in anticipation of consumer spending increasing in 2010. Shit, it just very well may double---

To 4%.

You should lay off the crack and learn how to read. US consumer spending USUALLY accounts for 70% of the GDP number. In this case the GDP number was led by other things.

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 09:56 AM
You should lay off the crack and learn how to read. US consumer spending USUALLY accounts for 70% of the GDP number. In this case the GDP number was led by other things.

So it's gonna go from 2% to 70% any time soon?

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 09:58 AM
You should lay off the crack and learn how to read. US consumer spending USUALLY accounts for 70% of the GDP number.

Crackhead, I already said that, see post #7

KC native
01-29-2010, 09:59 AM
So it's gonna go from 2% to 70% any time soon?

http://www.grim-planet.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/jesus_facepalm.jpg

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 10:01 AM
Ha ha the facepalm. ha.

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 10:01 AM
facepalm: for people who can't make a point.

Bearcat2005
01-29-2010, 11:28 AM
Problem: Artifical Growth Bubble
Solution: Create another artifical growth bubble.

Not that this news isn't nice to hear, we all understand what is taking place to create this "recovery".

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 11:31 AM
Problem: Artifical Growth Bubble
Solution: Create another artifical growth bubble.

Not that this news isn't nice to hear, we all understand what is taking place to create this "recovery".

Bearcat,

What's the deal with consumer spending? "Normally" it's around 70% of GDP---

What was it in 2008? Can we get the stats for 2009 yet? Thanks.

BucEyedPea
01-29-2010, 11:35 AM
Problem: Artifical Growth Bubble
Solution: Create another artifical growth bubble.

Not that this news isn't nice to hear, we all understand what is taking place to create this "recovery".

:clap:

patteeu
01-29-2010, 11:38 AM
What happened to the old BRC economic news thread that you were using to consolidate (bury) all the periodic (mostly bad) reports on the Obameconomy?

KC native
01-29-2010, 11:42 AM
Problem: Artifical Growth Bubble
Solution: Create another artifical growth bubble.

Not that this news isn't nice to hear, we all understand what is taking place to create this "recovery".

Are you a miserablean too? WTF is artificial growth?

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 11:43 AM
What happened to the old BRC economic news thread that you were using to consolidate (bury) all the periodic (mostly bad) reports on the Obameconomy?

Well it was a chronology that showed unemployment and debt was increasing, so BRC figured he'd wipe the slate clean and just start a new one.

max sleeper
01-29-2010, 11:46 AM
This is good news! A year in and things are stable. I see this everyday @ work and in the local economy and my 401K. Obama is doing great job with what he was dealt. This spring should be another shot in the arm for the economy as long as gas prices stay down.

vailpass
01-29-2010, 11:48 AM
This is good news! A year in and things are stable. I see this everyday @ work and in the local economy and my 401K. Obama is doing great job with what he was dealt. This spring should be another shot in the arm for the economy as long as gas prices stay down.

ROFL
Stable? The recession is stable? Boy obama really has a handle on it. Unemployment? Stable?
Presidential approval rating? Plummeting.
100 year democratic stronghold in Mass? Gone.
The once-every 5th administration Democratic control? Dwindling.
Upcoming mid-term elections? Interesting.

BigRedChief
01-29-2010, 12:00 PM
What happened to the old BRC economic news thread that you were using to consolidate (bury) all the periodic (mostly bad) reports on the Obameconomy?I explained that in the first sentence in this thread.

Bearcat2005
01-29-2010, 12:03 PM
This is good news! A year in and things are stable. I see this everyday @ work and in the local economy and my 401K. Obama is doing great job with what he was dealt. This spring should be another shot in the arm for the economy as long as gas prices stay down.

Gas will not stay down, the only reason they are "lower" now is because of the worldwide recession and demand for oil as decreased due to less production. Once production picks up coupled with the declining value of our dollar (due to borrowing and printing) gas prices will jump big time.

Imagine the opportunity costs on the economy of such high prices.

KC native
01-29-2010, 12:04 PM
Gas will not stay down, the only reason they are "lower" now is because of the worldwide recession and demand for oil as decreased due to less production. Once production picks up coupled with the declining value of our dollar (due to borrowing and printing) gas prices will jump big time.

Imagine the opportunity costs on the economy of such high prices.

um, what is artificial growth?

Bearcat2005
01-29-2010, 12:07 PM
um, what is artificial growth?

what is supply and demand?

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 12:08 PM
um, what is artificial growth?

Jackass.

KC native
01-29-2010, 12:09 PM
what is supply and demand?

I asked first. I just want to know why you consider a measured increase of economic activity as "artificial". So, what is artificial growth and how is this GDP number representative of artificial growth?

KCTitus
01-29-2010, 12:13 PM
Ok...good. Hopefully, people are around to buy the inventory build up this number was based on.

Frankly, Im more worried about the destruction of the dollar and the 1.5 trillion dollar deficits for the next 10 years.

I read somewhere that by 2019, our debt will be 98% of GDP. That's 9 years for those of you keeping score. We're kind of screwed at that point.

patteeu
01-29-2010, 12:14 PM
Starting a new "economy" thread. The other one is too long to find stuff.

Quite a coincidence, huh?

Bearcat2005
01-29-2010, 12:15 PM
I asked first. I just want to know why you consider a measured increase of economic activity as "artificial". So, what is artificial growth and how is this GDP number representative of artificial growth?

Its not what I consider....

Internet is our friend.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth

i.e. Artificial bubbles such as the current one that created this mess, the illusion of wealth, not created.

BigRedChief
01-29-2010, 12:16 PM
Quite a coincidence, huh?why does it matter? You want to change the thread title to "Offical Economy thread" or something? If so have a mod do it, I'll approve the change if my permission is needed. The other thread title was about the GDP being up also.

KC native
01-29-2010, 12:21 PM
Its not what I consider....

Internet is our friend.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth

i.e. Artificial bubbles such as the current one that created this mess, the illusion of wealth, not created.

Ah so you don't have an answer. Figures. You must be an Miserablean :rolleyes:

Economic growth is a term used to indicate the increase of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or other measure of aggregate income. It is often measured as the rate of change in GDP. Economic growth refers only to the quantity of goods and services produced; it says nothing about the way in which they are produced, or their distribution across members of the economy

HonestChieffan
01-29-2010, 12:22 PM
CBO says we will have 10% unemployment through FY 2011.

Bummer if you are Obama or one of the 10%.

Maybe we need a high speed train for $8billion in central Florida. That should fix it right up.

Bearcat2005
01-29-2010, 12:23 PM
Ah so you don't have an answer. Figures. You must be an Miserablean :rolleyes:

What do you mean I do not have an answer, can you read KC Naive?
Pick up an econ book before you comment on such.

Here I will throw in another so you can research the meaning

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

BucEyedPea
01-29-2010, 12:25 PM
CBO says we will have 10% unemployment through FY 2011.

Bummer if you are Obama or one of the 10%.

Maybe we need a high speed train for $8billion in central Florida. That should fix it right up.

With Obama still in power I am sure of that or even longer. He's following the FDR pattern. That took over ten years and post WWII to recover.

KC native
01-29-2010, 12:27 PM
What do you mean I do not have an answer, can you read KC Naive?
Pick up an econ book before you comment on such.

Here I will throw in another so you can research the meaning

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

I don't know where you learned how to define terms but posting a link to a wiki page for GDP doesn't answer the question of why do you consider this growth to be artificial. You posted a link to the definition of GDP which isn't what I asked. Now, WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL GROWTH AND WHY DO YOU THINK THAT THIS RECENT GDP NUMBER IS REFLECTIVE OF ARTIFICIAL GROWTH?

KC native
01-29-2010, 12:28 PM
With Obama still in power I am sure of that or even longer. He's following the FDR pattern. That took over ten years and post WWII to recover.

Yea as long as you ignore the fact that GDP recovered in 1938 and we didn't get involved in WWII until 19441.

Bearcat2005
01-29-2010, 12:30 PM
Ah so you don't have an answer. Figures. You must be an Miserablean
Economic growth is a term used to indicate the increase of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or other measure of aggregate income. It is often measured as the rate of change in GDP. Economic growth refers only to the quantity of goods and services produced; it says nothing about the way in which they are produced, or their distribution across members of the economy

So all those years under GW when the GDP was growing created real wealth? Where is it now? It is the illusion of wealth induced by deficit spending and among other things various interventions in the market.

Bearcat2005
01-29-2010, 12:31 PM
I don't know where you learned how to define terms but posting a link to a wiki page for GDP doesn't answer the question of why do you consider this growth to be artificial. You posted a link to the definition of GDP which isn't what I asked. Now, WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL GROWTH AND WHY DO YOU THINK THAT THIS RECENT GDP NUMBER IS REFLECTIVE OF ARTIFICIAL GROWTH?

Where in the hell have you been the past decade?

KC native
01-29-2010, 12:32 PM
So all those years under GW when the GDP was growing created real wealth? Where is it now? It is the illusion of wealth induced by deficit spending and among other things various interventions in the market.

You still didn't answer my question. I'll ask again. WTF IS ARTIFICIAL GROWTH AND HOW IS THE RECENT GDP FIGURE INDICATIVE OF ARTIFICIAL GROWTH?

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 12:33 PM
I don't know where you learned how to define terms but posting a link to a wiki page for GDP doesn't answer the question of why do you consider this growth to be artificial. You posted a link to the definition of GDP which isn't what I asked. Now, WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL GROWTH AND WHY DO YOU THINK THAT THIS RECENT GDP NUMBER IS REFLECTIVE OF ARTIFICIAL GROWTH?

I think this is his way of saying that he thinks you are an asshole?

:shrug:

KC native
01-29-2010, 12:34 PM
So all those years under GW when the GDP was growing created real wealth? Where is it now? It is the illusion of wealth induced by deficit spending and among other things various interventions in the market.

It did for some. Just because the gains of the last 10 years have been erased doesn't mean that there weren't gains.

patteeu
01-29-2010, 12:34 PM
why does it matter? You want to change the thread title to "Offical Economy thread" or something? If so have a mod do it, I'll approve the change if my permission is needed. The other thread title was about the GDP being up also.

I just think it's funny the way you say you oppose so many of his policies and post (bury) bad economic news as well as good in order to come across as balanced, but at the same time you seem desperate to boost his presidency and find a reason to justify your inevitable support for his re-election. I don't have any problem with you starting new threads whenever you want and giving them whatever title works for you. :)

Bearcat2005
01-29-2010, 12:35 PM
It did for some. Just because the gains of the last 10 years have been erased doesn't mean that there weren't gains.

Yes it does.... why should they count? If they don't exist then was it real growth? Hence an illusion of growth.

DJ's left nut
01-29-2010, 12:35 PM
Problem: Artifical Growth Bubble
Solution: Create another artifical growth bubble.

Not that this news isn't nice to hear, we all understand what is taking place to create this "recovery".

Yup.

Once again, jobless economic growth isn't actually economic growth.

It's disguised inflation.

Just like anyone with an ounce of sense knew was going to happen. Just wait until the job market picks back up (it will sooner or later) and the anchors on inflation fall away...

Scary scary stuff.

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 12:35 PM
Just because the gains of the last 10 years have been erased doesn't mean that there weren't gains.

So where did the 7 trillion dollars that was lost off everybody's 401K/mutual fund go to?

HonestChieffan
01-29-2010, 12:36 PM
The gain that was isnt now but for a while there was gain.

Sorta sounds like a diet. The pounds you lost came back but you still had a loss for a while. Fatty.

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 12:37 PM
but at the same time you seem desperate to boost his presidency

Yup.

HonestChieffan
01-29-2010, 12:37 PM
So where did the 7 trillion dollars that was lost off everybody's 401K/mutual fund go to?

They were rich. Now they are not. So hip hip hooray.

Bearcat2005
01-29-2010, 12:38 PM
The gain that was isnt now but for a while there was gain.

Sorta sounds like a diet. The pounds you lost came back but you still had a loss for a while. Fatty.

No, the gain did not produce anything, when the bubble popped the illusion of wealth was over, there was no gain. Artifical growth induced through various interventions.

KC native
01-29-2010, 12:40 PM
Yes it does.... why should they count? If they don't exist then was it real growth? Hence an illusion of growth.

So you're just going to keep ignoring my question huh? You are yet another of the hacks in DC who can parrot Miserablean talking points but when asked to give an answer that doesn't fit your talking points, you just avoid the question and say the "FREE MARKETS ARE THE ANSWER."

It should count because there are people who did see gains in real wealth. Not everyone bought a house in the years from 2003-2007 nor did everyone who already owned one sell it.

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 12:42 PM
No, the gain did not produce anything, when the bubble popped the illusion of wealth was over, there was no gain. Artifical growth induced through various interventions.

Exactly, and even the people who "gained back" losses from 2008, they can't touch it without getting a 10% penalty and 20% witholding until they are 59.5....

So to sit here and say "Well I have X amount of dollars in my retirement fund is delusional.

And the cruel irony is inflation will eat that 30% anyway (and they will still be taxes at whatever their current rate will be), when they can take the money out.

It's a tragedy.

Bearcat2005
01-29-2010, 12:45 PM
So you're just going to keep ignoring my question huh? You are yet another of the hacks in DC who can parrot Miserablean talking points but when asked to give an answer that doesn't fit your talking points, you just avoid the question and say the "FREE MARKETS ARE THE ANSWER."

It should count because there are people who did see gains in real wealth. Not everyone bought a house in the years from 2003-2007 nor did everyone who already owned one sell it.

How am I ignoring your post, can you read seriously? Real question... I spoke of bubbles, i explained how GDP is not an indicator of lasting real economic growth, and all you do is change subjects and avoid. You don't have anything here, you cannot explain a point because you don't have one.
Just because someone didn't buy a house between 03-07 doesn't mean that this illusion did not pertain to them, ever check your 401k, roth, stock? It was all inflated by the quick easy credit, when such interventions take place, bubbles in a variety of sectors appear, NOT JUST THE REAL ESTATE MARKET.

BigRedChief
01-29-2010, 12:47 PM
I just think it's funny the way you say you oppose so many of his policies and post (bury) bad economic news as well as good in order to come across as balanced, but at the same time you seem desperate to boost his presidency and find a reason to justify your inevitable support for his re-election. I don't have any problem with you starting new threads whenever you want and giving them whatever title works for you. :)
We all have our crosses to bear. I'd rather carry that one that your Cheney is the man and Palin in 2012 cross.:)

KC native
01-29-2010, 12:47 PM
Yup.

Once again, jobless economic growth isn't actually economic growth.

It's disguised inflation.

Just like anyone with an ounce of sense knew was going to happen. Just wait until the job market picks back up (it will sooner or later) and the anchors on inflation fall away...

Scary scary stuff.

:shake: No, that just means that the economic growth we had didn't benefit workers. That doesn't invalidate the growth that occurred.

Disguised inflation?

Really, anyone with an ounce of sense? So what about all those people who were saying there was no recession? What about all those people selling homes telling people that real estate doesn't go down? I could carry on but I thin you'll get the point. Just like everything else there were people who were right and people who were wrong. In this instance a majority of people were wrong.

Also, anchors of inflation? When the job market rebounds then the Fed is going to have to raise rates. If they don't then we'll see pernicious inflation. If Bernanke is responsive and responsible then we won't see anything above normal inflation.

Bearcat2005
01-29-2010, 12:48 PM
Exactly, and even the people who "gained back" losses from 2008, they can't touch it without getting a 10% penalty and 20% witholding until they are 59.5....

So to sit here and say "Well I have X amount of dollars in my retirement fund is delusional.

And the cruel irony is inflation will eat that 30% anyway (and they will still be taxes at whatever their current rate will be), when they can take the money out.

It's a tragedy.

He thinks because we borrow and print _ trillion dollars and induce GDP growth for 10' that it was real growth.... even if the markets collapse 5 years from now. All we had was an illusion of wealth and now more debt.

KC native
01-29-2010, 12:49 PM
Exactly, and even the people who "gained back" losses from 2008, they can't touch it without getting a 10% penalty and 20% witholding until they are 59.5....

So to sit here and say "Well I have X amount of dollars in my retirement fund is delusional.

And the cruel irony is inflation will eat that 30% anyway (and they will still be taxes at whatever their current rate will be), when they can take the money out.

It's a tragedy.

You can always go to cash. You aren't required to be invested in equities within your retirement accounts. Once again we get to see how retarded you really are.

Bearcat2005
01-29-2010, 12:52 PM
:shake: No, that just means that the economic growth we had didn't benefit workers. That doesn't invalidate the growth that occurred.

Disguised inflation?

Really, anyone with an ounce of sense? So what about all those people who were saying there was no recession? What about all those people selling homes telling people that real estate doesn't go down? I could carry on but I thin you'll get the point. Just like everything else there were people who were right and people who were wrong. In this instance a majority of people were wrong.

Also, anchors of inflation? When the job market rebounds then the Fed is going to have to raise rates. If they don't then we'll see pernicious inflation. If Bernanke is responsive and responsible then we won't see anything above normal inflation.


They will raise rates, however all of the printing the FED has been doing will/can put a lot of inflationary pressure on the economy. I really feel that in coming future the Fed funds rate will have less power ofver the inflationary pressures.

DJ's left nut
01-29-2010, 12:54 PM
:shake: No, that just means that the economic growth we had didn't benefit workers. That doesn't invalidate the growth that occurred.

Disguised inflation?

Really, anyone with an ounce of sense? So what about all those people who were saying there was no recession? What about all those people selling homes telling people that real estate doesn't go down? I could carry on but I thin you'll get the point. Just like everything else there were people who were right and people who were wrong. In this instance a majority of people were wrong.

Also, anchors of inflation? When the job market rebounds then the Fed is going to have to raise rates. If they don't then we'll see pernicious inflation. If Bernanke is responsive and responsible then we won't see anything above normal inflation.

Sure.

Trillions in additional currency added to the market and we won't see additional inflation.

Keep telling yourself that.

KC native
01-29-2010, 12:56 PM
How am I ignoring your post, can you read seriously? Real question... I spoke of bubbles, i explained how GDP is not an indicator of lasting real economic growth, and all you do is change subjects and avoid. You don't have anything here, you cannot explain a point because you don't have one.
Just because someone didn't buy a house between 03-07 doesn't mean that this illusion did not pertain to them, ever check your 401k, roth, stock? It was all inflated by the quick easy credit, when such interventions take place, bubbles in a variety of sectors appear, NOT JUST THE REAL ESTATE MARKET.

Yes you are avoiding my question. I've asked you three times and here's a fourth. WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL GROWTH AND HOW IS THE RECENT GDP NUMBER INDICATIVE OF ARTIFICIAL GROWTH?

Since you seem to be stuck on bubbles. Could you please define what you think an asset bubble is?

Finally, yes I did check my 401(k) and my parents 401(k)'s that I'm responsible for. Guess what? They didn't lose any money. I cashed them out long before the crash happened. In no way did I top tick the market but I knew that 5 years without even a 10% correction and high multiples on record profit margins wasn't sustainable and we were going to see a drop. I was early and the market continued to go up but when it lost half of it's value the accounts I manage lost none. I started to put them back in the market in November of 2009 and got about half way invested through February where I cashed them back out for a nice 8% gain (edit:8% on their total assets despite being only 50% invested). I've been in cash since then because I didn't expect this to be the mother of all bear market rallies. Once the market gets a good correction I will start easing back into the market.

So, genious, if my parents lost no money and didn't buy/sell a house how is their increase in wealth artificial?

KC native
01-29-2010, 12:58 PM
[/B]


They will raise rates, however all of the printing the FED has been doing will/can put a lot of inflationary pressure on the economy. I really feel that in coming future the Fed funds rate will have less power ofver the inflationary pressures.

Another Miserablean who doesn't understand that the FED has more tools to fight inflation than the fed funds rates. Color me not surprised.

patteeu
01-29-2010, 12:58 PM
We all have our crosses to bear. I'd rather carry that one that your Cheney is the man and Palin in 2012 cross.:)

How do I keep getting associated with the Palin in 2012 camp (is there really even a camp)? I think I've specifically said that *if* Palin can rehab her image, it will be sometime after 2012. :shrug:

As for the Cheney part, I'm proud to support such a great American hero. :rockon:

KC native
01-29-2010, 12:59 PM
Sure.

Trillions in additional currency added to the market and we won't see additional inflation.

Keep telling yourself that.

Brilliant analysis. You do realize that a lot of the expansion of the monetary base has been done through temporary programs right? That money isn't staying in circulation permanently.

DJ's left nut
01-29-2010, 01:01 PM
That money isn't staying in circulation permanently.

You actually believe that?

We're already hearing rumblings about 'reallocating' the resources that come in off the repayment of those 'temporary' programs.

I'm well aware it would be possible to stall inflation out. I also know that there's no way this administration takes advantage of any of those measures.

What federal government have you been watching for the last 50 years? None of this money's coming out of circulation.

Amnorix
01-29-2010, 01:03 PM
You actually believe that?

We're already hearing rumblings about 'reallocating' the resources that come in off the repayment of those 'temporary' programs.

I'm well aware it would be possible to stall inflation out. I also know that there's no way this administration takes advantage of any of those measures.

What federal government have you been watching for the last 50 years?

Remember that it was Volcker, under Carter then Reagan, who squished late 70s inflation. Doing what was necessary was one of the reasons Carter got the axe.

DJ's left nut
01-29-2010, 01:06 PM
Remember that it was Volcker, under Carter then Reagan, who squished late 70s inflation. Doing what was necessary was one of the reasons Carter got the axe.

And Carter getting the axe is one of the reasons Obama/Bernanke won't do what's necessary.

Like I said in another thread - politically expedient handouts and platitudes is about all we're going to get out of the hucksters.

KC native
01-29-2010, 01:06 PM
You actually believe that?

We're already hearing rumblings about 'reallocating' the resources that come in off the repayment of those 'temporary' programs.

I'm well aware it would be possible to stall inflation out. I also know that there's no way this administration takes advantage of any of those measures.

What federal government have you been watching for the last 50 years?

This administration has little say in the matter. You are aware that TARP is not all of the programs that I'm speaking of right? I generally don't refer to them because it's extremely wonky stuff and most people don't understand them. But for example we have TALF or (can't remember the name) the program where the fed is purchasing mortgage backed debt which ends in March.

These programs are counted in the increase in the monetary base. Most of these programs expire during 2010.

DJ's left nut
01-29-2010, 01:09 PM
This administration has little say in the matter. You are aware that TARP is not all of the programs that I'm speaking of right? I generally don't refer to them because it's extremely wonky stuff and most people don't understand them. But for example we have TALF or (can't remember the name) the program where the fed is purchasing mortgage backed debt which ends in March.

These programs are counted in the increase in the monetary base. Most of these programs expire during 2010.

So you actually think they'll take that money out of circulation?

They're spending money that doesn't actually exist and praying to get later authorization for it and you think this same group will fail to come up with a way to keep this money in play?

This doesn't even qualify as delusional.

I ask again - what government have you been watching?

The Mad Crapper
01-29-2010, 01:48 PM
You can always go to cash. You aren't required to be invested in equities within your retirement accounts. Once again we get to see how retarded you really are.

Cash... inflation...

never mind. :drool:

And you are a lowlife like B.O. for making jokes about retarded people.

petegz28
01-29-2010, 01:51 PM
This is good news! A year in and things are stable. I see this everyday @ work and in the local economy and my 401K. Obama is doing great job with what he was dealt. This spring should be another shot in the arm for the economy as long as gas prices stay down.

Yea, everything but that pesky unemployment rate that keeps going up, up and up!

KC native
01-29-2010, 02:27 PM
So you actually think they'll take that money out of circulation?

They're spending money that doesn't actually exist and praying to get later authorization for it and you think this same group will fail to come up with a way to keep this money in play?

This doesn't even qualify as delusional.

I ask again - what government have you been watching?

You're conflating the Government and the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is independent (not too much right now but historically). The Fed started these programs/facilities not the US Government.

Also, I don't see much room for inflation due to government spending because if the government continues to run such large deficits foreign investors will demand more interest to buy our debt. Once rates rise (and they will) that will tamp down inflation. I'm not saying there won't be any inflation just that we will be able to anticipate what the inflation rate will be (which IMO is more important b/c if inflation is anticipated then it is budgeted for).

DJ's left nut
01-29-2010, 02:29 PM
You're conflating the Government and the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is independent (not too much right now but historically). The Fed started these programs/facilities not the US Government.

I don't see much room for inflation because if the government continues to run such large deficits foreign investors will demand more interest to buy our debt. Once rates rise (and they will) that will tamp down inflation. I'm not saying there won't be any inflation just that we will be able to anticipate what the inflation rate will be (which IMO is more important b/c if inflation is anticipated then it is budgeted for).

Again, you're stating what can be done; I'm stating what will be done.

You're citing the 'historical' independence of the federal reserve while also acknowledging that said animal is now extinct.

The Fed is a puppet for the administration right now. The administration is a spineless ATM right now.

There is no way on God's green earth that this gutless administration will pull whatever string that needs to be pulled to get the Reserve puppet to dance here.

Stop discussing theory as though it's reality. The reality is that nobody in charge has the political will to do what it is you're saying they're capable of doing.

KC native
01-29-2010, 02:49 PM
Again, you're stating what can be done; I'm stating what will be done.

You're citing the 'historical' independence of the federal reserve while also acknowledging that said animal is now extinct.

The Fed is a puppet for the administration right now. The administration is a spineless ATM right now.

There is no way on God's green earth that this gutless administration will pull whatever string that needs to be pulled to get the Reserve puppet to dance here.

Stop discussing theory as though it's reality. The reality is that nobody in charge has the political will to do what it is you're saying they're capable of doing.

The independence may be at a weak point but the Fed Reserve is still independent.

It's not theory and it doesn't come down to the political side. These are decisions that the government nor the fed is going to really have a choice in. If Bernanke lets another bubble inflate then the Fed is going to be under very heavy scrutiny and the Fed wants no part of that. Politicians won't be able to spend into perpetuity because the interest costs will rise dramatically and they will either respond or get voted out.

I think the difference comes in our time frames. You're focusing on the next 6-9 months. I'm starting with the next 6 months and looking out further.

Garcia Bronco
01-29-2010, 03:08 PM
Starting a new "economy" thread. The other one is too long to find stuff.

Economy grows at fastest pace in 6 years
GDP data show 5.7 percent rate in Q4, faster pace than expected
BREAKING NEWS
Reuters
updated 7:33 a.m. CT, Fri., Jan. 29, 2010

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The U.S. economy grew at a faster-than-expected 5.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the quickest pace in more than six years, as businesses reduced inventories less aggressively, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

The first estimate put fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth at its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003. The economy expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, growing at a 4.6 percent rate in October-December period.

Growth was boosted a sharp slowdown in the pace of inventory liquidation, a factor that could mask the strength of the economic recovery from the longest and deepest downturn since the Great Depression.

But even stripping out inventories, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2 percent, accelerating from the 1.5 percent increase in the third quarter, reflecting relatively strong performance from other segments of the economy.

Business inventories fell only $33.5 billion in fourth quarter after dropping $139.2 billion in the July-September period. The change in inventories alone added 3.39 percentage points to GDP in the last quarter. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987.
For the whole of 2009, the economy contracted 2.4 percent, the biggest decline since 1946, the first year after the end of World War II, the department said.

In the last three months of 2009, consumer spending increased at a 2 percent annual rate, below the 2.8 percent annual pace in the prior quarter when consumption got a boost from the government's "cash for clunkers" program.

In the forth quarter, consumer spending contributed 1.44 percentage points to GDP.

Consumer spending, which normally accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, has been held back by the worst labor market in a quarter century.


Business investment in the fourth quarter grew for the first time since the second quarter of 2008 as the drag from the troubled commercial real estate was offset by robust spending on equipment and software. Business investment rose at a 2.9 percent rate after falling 5.9 percent over the previous three-month period.

The growth of spending on new home construction braked sharply in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 5.7 percent from an 18.9 percent pace in the third quarter. Home building has received a lift from a popular tax credit for first-time buyers, but recent data have hinted at some weakness starting to creep in.

Export growth outpaced imports, leaving a trade gap that contributed half a percentage point to GDP growth in the last quarter.

Copyright 2010 Reuters. Click for restrictions.

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');if (typeof FDCPUrl == 'function'){FDCPUrl();}else if(window.print){window.print()}else{alert('To print his page press Ctrl-P on your keyboard \nor choose print from your browser or device after clicking OK');}}</SCRIPT>URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35141308/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/ (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35141308/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/)

This is a classic case of two kinds of people use statistics.: Liars and Damn Liars.

HonestChieffan
01-29-2010, 03:27 PM
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PxZyE6Jgabo/S2LbnNDWLII/AAAAAAAAQjs/gAtGtA2FCcY/s400/theo4.jpg

Stewie
01-29-2010, 04:03 PM
These numbers are a bunch of hooey and they certainly aren't sustainable. Look at the bond market. If anyone in the bond world believed this BS they would have pounded bonds today.

Why don't the feds create a cash for old refrigerators program, a cash for old motorcycles program and a cash for old television sets program? We could probably get a GDP number up near 9% this quarter and go on to pass China in our rate of growth.

HonestChieffan
01-29-2010, 04:05 PM
what did bonds do today

Chocolate Hog
01-29-2010, 04:05 PM
Woohoo the GDP is up with 20% unemployment.

Stewie
01-29-2010, 04:08 PM
what did bonds do today

They were up across the board last time I looked.

petegz28
01-29-2010, 04:27 PM
These numbers are a bunch of hooey and they certainly aren't sustainable. Look at the bond market. If anyone in the bond world believed this BS they would have pounded bonds today.



This...

Chocolate Hog
01-29-2010, 04:29 PM
Audit The Fed!

BucEyedPea
01-29-2010, 04:51 PM
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
You're conflating the Government and the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is independent (not too much right now but historically). The Fed started these programs/facilities not the US Government.
Fed independence is a myth! It's a hybrid. It exists to facilitate govt borrowing while these mercantilists get rich off it.

petegz28
01-29-2010, 05:15 PM
Wages and benefits rise in 2009 by smallest amount on records going back 27 years

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wages-and-benefits-rise-weak-apf-4052349307.html?x=0&.v=1

BigRedChief
02-05-2010, 08:00 AM
Unemployment rate falls to 9.7 percent
U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 20,000 in January
Reuters
updated 7:35 a.m. CT, Fri., Feb. 5, 2010

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WASHINGTON - U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 20,000 in January, but the unemployment rate surprisingly fell to a five-month low of 9.7 percent, according to a government report on Friday that hinted at some labor market improvement starting to take root.

The Labor Department said the economy shed 150,000 jobs in December, compared to 85,000 previously reported, but November was revised to a gain of 64,000, up from 4,000. Annual benchmark revisions to payrolls data showed the economy has purged 8.4 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls gaining 5,000 and the unemployment rate to edge up to 10.1 percent in January from 10 percent. Median estimates from the top 20 forecasters expected payrolls to be unchanged last month.

A sharp increase in the number of people giving up looking for work helped to depress the jobless rate. The number of 'discouraged job seekers' rose to 1.1 million in January from 734,000 a year ago.

With Americans increasingly anxious about high unemployment, President Barack Obama has declared that job creation will be his top priority in 2010.

Obama's fellow Democrats fear voters could punish them in November congressional elections if the administration fails to make headway in tackling the high jobless rate.

Financial markets have grown nervous about the prospect of unemployment in the United States remaining high for a long time. The economy resumed growth in the second half of 2009 and labor market healing is crucial for a self-sustaining economic recovery to take root.
The economy grew at a 5.7 percent rate in the fourth quarter, the fastest clip in six years. Growth was driven by businesses reducing their stock of unsold goods less aggressively that in previous quarters.
While job losses in prior months were steeper than previously thought, details of the January report supported views the blood bath has stopped.

Last month, the services sector added 40,000 jobs after shedding 96,000 positions. The figure included a rise in federal government employment, partly as a result of the hiring of staff for the 2010 Census. Temporary help employment rose 52,000, maintaining a rising trend seen in the past month.

Manufacturing payrolls rose 11,000 last month, the first gain since January 2007, after dropping 23,000 in December. But the construction sector, continued to struggle, losing 75,000 jobs, likely because of unusually cold weather. Construction payrolls fell 32,000 in December.

In another sign of labor market improvement, the average workweek unexpectedly rose to 33.3 hours, the highest level in a year, from 33.2 hours in December. Total average hourly earnings increased $18.89 from $18.84 in December.

Manufacturing overtime rose to 3.5 hours, the highest since September 2008.

Copyright 2010 Reuters. Click for restrictions.
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');if (typeof FDCPUrl == 'function'){FDCPUrl();}else if(window.print){window.print()}else{alert('To print his page press Ctrl-P on your keyboard \nor choose print from your browser or device after clicking OK');}}</SCRIPT>URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35254011/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/ (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35254011/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/)

BigRedChief
02-05-2010, 08:04 AM
All I've been reading for the last 2 days is how bad the jobs #'s would be. What happened? Kcnative? Anyone?

petegz28
02-05-2010, 08:26 AM
All I've been reading for the last 2 days is how bad the jobs #'s would be. What happened? Kcnative? Anyone?

This report was actually the flip of what was expected. It was expected that unemployment would go down but the rate would stay the same or go up. The opposite happened.

The Mad Crapper
02-05-2010, 09:01 AM
This report was actually the flip of what was expected. It was expected that unemployment would go down but the rate would stay the same or go up. The opposite happened.

I think these economic numbers we’re seeing are coming from the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia University.

The Mad Crapper
02-05-2010, 09:05 AM
All I've been reading for the last 2 days is how bad the jobs #'s would be. What happened?

What happened?! You mean you really don't know? ROFL

Last week it was revealed that there were 800,000 “missing” jobs not calculated during the past year, and you add January's 20,000 and you get 820,000 so how does the rate drop from 10% to 9.7%?

Well obviously somebody is either really bad at math or somebody is lying.

The brazen propaganda the B.O. administration engages is should be an insult to any rational thinking persons intelligence. Obviously that excludes you.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 09:07 AM
Fed Gov increased their payrolls by 33,000

The Mad Crapper
02-05-2010, 09:12 AM
Fed Gov increased their payrolls by 33,000

That doesn't negate private sector losses enough to see a dip. There is no way that number is not manipulated.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 09:16 AM
a lot of suspicion about the report is what I am hearing. 9.7% number is being questioned.

KC native
02-05-2010, 09:19 AM
All I've been reading for the last 2 days is how bad the jobs #'s would be. What happened? Kcnative? Anyone?

It's a decent report in a sort of bad way. I don't remember what the margin of error is for these but I know it's usually somewhere between 10,000 and 40,000 and since 0 could be within the margin of error we can't really tell if we lost, gained or stayed the same. In an environment where we've seen such massive job losses this is certainly welcome news however it's not something that I would say is great.

The continuing increase in discouraged workers (those that drop out of the labor pool) is what stands out to me. The actual published rate has been going down because people have been leaving the work force which isn't healthy for the economy.

The Mad Crapper
02-05-2010, 09:20 AM
a lot of suspicion about the report is what I am hearing. 9.7% number is being questioned.

Well of course it's being questioned, but as propaganda it has already served its decietful purpose---

The Headline reads

UNEMPLOYMENT DROPS TO 9.7%

just like last week it was

OBAMA DECLARES SPENDING FREEZE

That's all most people are going to see, they aren't going to investigate it and find out that it's superficial BS and lies.

KC native
02-05-2010, 09:21 AM
What happened?! You mean you really don't know? ROFL

Last week it was revealed that there were 800,000 “missing” jobs not calculated during the past year, and you add January's 20,000 and you get 820,000 so how does the rate drop from 10% to 9.7%?

Well obviously somebody is either really bad at math or somebody is lying.

The brazen propaganda the B.O. administration engages is should be an insult to any rational thinking persons intelligence. Obviously that excludes you.

It's the way the unemployment rate is calculated which hasn't been changed since Bush changed it early in the 2000's. If you're interested in the details, and we all know your dumbass isn't, then you can go to http://www.bls.gov/ and read all about it.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 09:23 AM
Well of course it's being questioned, but as propaganda it has already served its decietful purpose---

The Headline reads

UNEMPLOYMENT DROPS TO 9.7%

just like last week it was

OBAMA DECLARES SPENDING FREEZE

That's all most people are going to see, they aren't going to investigate it and find out that it's superficial BS and lies.

No one is suspecting political manipulation.

The Mad Crapper
02-05-2010, 09:24 AM
It's the way the unemployment rate is calculated which hasn't been changed since Bush changed it early in the 2000's. If you're interested in the details, and we all know your dumbass isn't, then you can go to http://www.bls.gov/ and read all about it.

Stooge boy, everybody knows this economy is in trouble, and it's in trouble because of B.O.'s policies, but rather than change course, the propaganda buys B.O. more time to forward his destructive agenda.

Real lives are being destroyed in this country. B.O. is a communist scumbag.

KC native
02-05-2010, 09:27 AM
Stooge boy, everybody knows this economy is in trouble, and it's in trouble because of B.O.'s policies, but rather than change course, the propaganda buys B.O. more time to forward his destructive agenda.

Real lives are being destroyed in this country. B.O. is a communist scumbag.

Shtty isn't interested in the details of the real situation. Color me not surprised. You really are a worthless pos. Quit wasting oxygen and just die in a fire already.

BigRedChief
02-05-2010, 09:29 AM
No one is suspecting political manipulation.you couldn't get away with that and if you tried you would be cruicifed politically if caught. Numbers/statistics can be easily manipulated to fit your point of view so you don't need to change the raw numbers.

The Mad Crapper
02-05-2010, 09:31 AM
No one is suspecting political manipulation.

Without BLS Seasonal Shenanigans, Unemployment Is Surging To Record Highs

The January NFP number came in at -20,000, a mere 5k away from Goldman's -25,000 estimate. Consensus was for +15,000. December, as all prior months, saw an expected major downward revision to -150,000 from -85,000. The January Birth/Death adjustment was for -427K from +25K in December. Despite a deterioration in every metric, the unemployment rate dropped from 10.% to 9.7%, even with a consensus at 10.0%. A glitch in the excel model is further corroborated when one considers that the civilian labor force participation rate actually rose in January from 64.6 to 64.7.

"The January Birth/Death adjustment was for -427K from +25K in December. " Oh really? Kind a like WH claim that they created TWO million jobs. Of course cannot be substantiated since numbers were pulled out of Hussein's behind.

It's all HOAX and lies we can we believe in.
http://www.businessinsider.com/without-bls-seasonal-shenanigans-unemployment-is-surging-to-record-highs-2010-2

BigRedChief
02-05-2010, 09:32 AM
Shtty isn't interested in the details of the real situation. Color me not surprised. You really are a worthless pos. Quit wasting oxygen and just die in a fire already.yeah this recession that started back in 2007-2008 is Obama's fault?
The month Obama took office we lost 700,000 jobs. 20K is still too many but its a halluva lot better than 700K.

Plus, I don't think we ever got back to 5% unemployment. The economy is too global and we don't make chit anymore to export.

KC native
02-05-2010, 09:34 AM
Here''s a balanced analysis of it

Dissecting the NonFarm Payroll Data
Email this post Print this post
By Barry Ritholtz - February 5th, 2010, 10:13AM

Today’s NFP data was surprising — both tot he upside and the downside. 20,000 jobs were lost in January, below the consensus. But everywhere else, there were surprising improvements.

Is it possible that those people expecting a mediocre recovery and weak employment picture — including me — might be pleasantly surprised? A closer look suggests that many people may be underestimating the recovery.

Consider the cyclical progress that occurs as a recovery takes hold: Revenues improve, followed eventually by greater Profits. Companies have been doing capital expenditure spending first . . . and only hiring when they have to. Greater hiring leads to greater spending.

So far, we have seen the revenue improvements, and the beginnings of better profits. Various tech firms (Cisco in particular) are seeing improving CapEx orders. Temp Help has improved, and some firms are actually hiring.

Ask yourself what outcome would surprise the most people — the economy sliding in a double dip recession — or a stronger than anticipated recovery?

Here are some other data points beneath the headlines:

Positives

1. BLS reported that in January, persons unemployed “due to job loss” decreased by 378,000 to 9.3 million. Thats a decent number. And, “nearly all of this decline” came from the “permanent job losers.” (See table A-11.)

2. The Underemployed – Persons who want full time jobs but working part time instead — fell from 9.2 to 8.3 million in January. That is an enormous improvement. (See table A-8.)

3. Temporary help services added 52,000 jobs — that is a leading indicator of future hiring. (See table B-1.) Since the temp help lows in September 2009, temporary help services employment has risen by 247,000.

4. The Household survey showed growth of 541,000 workers. In a recovery, this tends to pick up new employees (especially at smaller firms) faster than other measures. The Household Survey isn’t “large firm ” biased the way the Establishment Survey is.

5. After experiencing steep job losses earlier in the recession, job losses in manufacturing has moderated considerably.

6. Retail trade employment rose by 42,000 in January, after showing little
change in the prior 2 months.

Negatives

1. The number of long-term unemployed — jobless for 27 weeks or longer — is still rising. Since the December 2007 start of the recession, long-term unemployed has risen by 5.0 million. (See table A-12.)

2. NiLFS — Not in Labor Force — rose 409,000 to ~2.5 million persons. They are also called “marginally attached to the labor force” — not in the labor force, want and available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. (See table A-16.)

3. 1.1 million discouraged workers in January is a huge increase of 734,000 from a year earlier. (Discouraged workers are not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them)

4. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls are still near record lows — 33.9 hours in January.

The Mad Crapper
02-05-2010, 09:34 AM
It’s mathematically impossible to lose jobs and the real unemployment number goes down. Thanks for playing.

BigRedChief
02-05-2010, 09:36 AM
Here''s a balanced analysis of itWhy do you bother? His blind hatred doesn't allow him to view anything objectively.

jjjayb
02-05-2010, 09:36 AM
Oh look, Obama has a hockeystick graph too.

http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4b6c28d00000000000377b70-335-197/chart.jpg

KC native
02-05-2010, 09:38 AM
Why do you bother? His blind hatred doesn't allow him to view anything objectively.

It wasn't really a reply to him. Just putting up some actual good analysis instead of what he puts up.

The Mad Crapper
02-05-2010, 09:39 AM
Why do you bother? His blind hatred doesn't allow him to view anything objectively.

My hatred for the commie scumbag who was shit out of mayor daleys ass in Chicago, isn't blind. In fact, its 20/20. Maybe your vision would improve as well if you came up for air and pulled your face out from between B.O.'s ass cheeks.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 09:40 AM
It’s mathematically impossible to lose jobs and the real unemployment number goes down. Thanks for playing.

I tend to agree with this on the surface. The 9.7% number is a bit of a reach when you break it down. Which is why you are seeing the market sort of hodge-podge around without any clear direction off of the number.

The Mad Crapper
02-05-2010, 09:40 AM
It wasn't really a reply to him. Just putting up some actual good analysis instead of what he puts up.

Unemployment is still over 10%. Thanks for playing.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 10:41 AM
Man, as soon as the European markets closed the selling kicked in. At lesat for the moment it doesn't appear the market likes today's report too much.

BigRedChief
02-05-2010, 11:22 AM
Man, as soon as the European markets closed the selling kicked in. At lesat for the moment it doesn't appear the market likes today's report too much.What I heard was that its the European economy that has the investeors skiddish, not the job #'s.

jiveturkey
02-05-2010, 11:28 AM
I've been keeping an eye on the exchange rate with the Euro and we've had some actual gains against them over the last handful of weeks. It sounds like there's been some issues in Greece and it's affecting the entire EU.

BigRedChief
02-05-2010, 11:35 AM
I've been keeping an eye on the exchange rate with the Euro and we've had some actual gains against them over the last handful of weeks. It sounds like there's been some issues in Greece and it's affecting the entire EU.Thats what the talking head was saying. Greece and Spain.

patteeu
02-05-2010, 12:40 PM
yeah this recession that started back in 2007-2008 is Obama's fault?
The month Obama took office we lost 700,000 jobs. 20K is still too many but its a halluva lot better than 700K.

Plus, I don't think we ever got back to 5% unemployment. The economy is too global and we don't make chit anymore to export.

After everyone loses their job, the next job loss number will be zero. Will that be a sign of progress?

petegz28
02-05-2010, 01:33 PM
What I heard was that its the European economy that has the investeors skiddish, not the job #'s.

It's both. I think I have heard 1 out of 7 or 8 people today say the employment numbers were good. Everyone else was meh on the deal and equaly surprised at how the rate dropped somehow but losses continue.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 01:34 PM
I've been keeping an eye on the exchange rate with the Euro and we've had some actual gains against them over the last handful of weeks. It sounds like there's been some issues in Greece and it's affecting the entire EU.

Right now the trade is to sell the Euro. The U.S. $ is getting a boost from that trade.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 01:36 PM
SP500 is down almost 5% in the last 2 days alone. And today is on pace to be the highest volume day of the year or close to it.

BigRedChief
02-05-2010, 01:40 PM
It's both. I think I have heard 1 out of 7 or 8 people today say the employment numbers were good. Everyone else was meh on the deal and equaly surprised at hot the rate dropped somehow but losses continue.USA Today Foreign worries send stocks lower; Dow drops below 10,000

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2010-02-05-stocks-friday_N.htm

petegz28
02-05-2010, 01:41 PM
USA Today Foreign worries send stocks lower; Dow drops below 10,000

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2010-02-05-stocks-friday_N.htm

BFD! I forgot that USA Today was the Holy Grail of the market. ROFL

BigRedChief
02-05-2010, 01:51 PM
BFD! I forgot that USA Today was the Holy Grail of the market. ROFLhow about Wall street Journal?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704533204575046842622328102.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

Stocks' losses piled up as buyers rushed to the dollar Friday afternoon, increasing their safe-haven bets prompted by concerns over sovereign debt in Europe.

KC native
02-05-2010, 01:59 PM
how about Wall street Journal?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704533204575046842622328102.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

Stocks' losses piled up as buyers rushed to the dollar Friday afternoon, increasing their safe-haven bets prompted by concerns over sovereign debt in Europe.

I hate these stories. The market is the news and very rarely can you attribute one story or theme to daily market movements (which despite a 2-3% up/down day) are generally noise.

That being said this is what I said would happen with the dollar. It's not going to be a "strong" currency but it wasn't going to collapse because the rest of the world has the same issues we do.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 02:02 PM
how about Wall street Journal?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704533204575046842622328102.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

Stocks' losses piled up as buyers rushed to the dollar Friday afternoon, increasing their safe-haven bets prompted by concerns over sovereign debt in Europe.

I said it was BOTH. What part of BOTH is confusing you?

RJ
02-05-2010, 02:08 PM
FWIW, I've been busier the past 4 months than I have been since 2007, despite the fact we have done virtually no advertising. I sell flooring - mostly residential - and my average ticket has been running about 3K. That's lower than it once was but still not bad. People are still buying despite spending a little less and sometimes doing their own installation.

I post this simply because my sales are directly tied to the housing market and consumer spending. Conversely, we have another location that deals primarily with the builder market and their sales are still in the shitter. So while things are far from rosy, they are a bit rosier than they were 6 months ago.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 02:10 PM
FWIW, I've been busier the past 4 months than I have been since 2007, despite the fact we have done virtually no advertising. I sell flooring - mostly residential - and my average ticket has been running about 3K. That's lower than it once was but still not bad. People are still buying despite spending a little less and sometimes doing their own installation.

I post this simply because my sales are directly tied to the housing market and consumer spending. Conversely, we have another location that deals primarily with the builder market and their sales are still in the shitter. So while things are far from rosy, they are a bit rosier than they were 6 months ago.

A lot of people are choosing to remodel their homes and stuff like that as opposed to spending money on a vacation. I am glad to hear things are getting better for you.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 02:15 PM
Fucking market is getting one hell of a bounce right now.

RJ
02-05-2010, 02:19 PM
A lot of people are choosing to remodel their homes and stuff like that as opposed to spending money on a vacation. I am glad to hear things are getting better for you.


It's not great and I'm not making what I was two years ago but I am seeing improvement. And I agree with you.....lots of people are investing in their homes rather than taking that trip to Vegas. Sorry, Senator Reid. :D

I'm also hearing more often from customers that they want to try buying local as opposed to the HD and Lowes type stores. That's good for me and probably good for them. In general, I get the feeling that folks are being more selective about what they spend their money on and where they spend it.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 02:36 PM
Today may very well be a key reversal day. We hit the 104 handle on the SP500 and bounced back big time. The marker is looking to close up on heavy volume.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 02:45 PM
Rumor on the floor is there is a resuce package coming for Greece over the weekend.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 02:49 PM
Holy fuck, the tape is flying!

petegz28
02-05-2010, 03:00 PM
Big time reversal day today. It may be time to get back in on the long side.

BigRedChief
02-05-2010, 07:50 PM
Big time reversal day today. It may be time to get back in on the long side.That dude that yells with his sleeves rolled up on msn financial network was on another news show and said this was all over 1 guy selling $100 million worth of stock to make up for the europeans currency issues. Once he got that $100 million sold the market rebounded.

petegz28
02-05-2010, 09:22 PM
That dude that yells with his sleeves rolled up on msn financial network was on another news show and said this was all over 1 guy selling $100 million worth of stock to make up for the europeans currency issues. Once he got that $100 million sold the market rebounded.

Hmmm, 100 mil isn't all that much considering the volume. Several Traders on the floor were saying a rumor was floating around about a bailout for Greece.

This is why I read charts and don't pay much attention to the stories. Price action is price action. We had the heaviest volume day of the year and the heaviest in a long time. We will see what happens on Monday but as it stands now today was a key reversal day on the charts.

And I rarely listen to Jim Cramer. He also said the market would skyrocket if Scott Brown was elected. Pure BS.

The Mad Crapper
02-05-2010, 09:35 PM
Pure BS.

Welcome to Wall Street.

Saul Good
02-06-2010, 09:00 PM
Hmmm, 100 mil isn't all that much considering the volume. Several Traders on the floor were saying a rumor was floating around about a bailout for Greece.

This is why I read charts and don't pay much attention to the stories. Price action is price action. We had the heaviest volume day of the year and the heaviest in a long time. We will see what happens on Monday but as it stands now today was a key reversal day on the charts.

And I rarely listen to Jim Cramer. He also said the market would skyrocket if Scott Brown was elected. Pure BS.

Cramer was actually right on that one. The market shot up once the polls pretty much showed that he had it in the bag. Then, Obama started talking about his new plans.

Bearcat2005
02-07-2010, 01:39 PM
The real question out of all this will be if Greece continues to include themselves with the monetary policies of the EU or if things become worse will aspects of the EURO zone dissolve, I suppose time will tell.

BigRedChief
02-11-2010, 10:31 AM
Jobless Claims Fall Sharply in Latest Week

WASHINGTON--The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for jobless benefits tumbled last week, a government report showed on Thursday, reversing a recent spike that had raised concerns about renewed labor market weakness.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 43,000 to a seasonally adjusted 440,000 for the week ended Feb. 6, down from a revised 483,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected 465,000 initial claims. The prior week was initially reported as 480,000, an unexpectedly high reading that was blamed in part on a backlog of claims that piled up over the holiday season.
A Labor Department (http://www.foxbusiness.com/topics/business/labor-department.htm)official said that with this latest report, the administrative backlog was largely "washed out."

"By and large we are resuming a normal level with all states reporting an appropriate base level," the official said.

The four-week moving average (http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/economy/jobless-claims-fall-sharply-latest-week/#), which smoothes out week-to-week volatility, fell by 1,000 to 468,500.

Investors (http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/economy/jobless-claims-fall-sharply-latest-week/#) are keeping a close eye on jobless claims for evidence that the economy is on the verge of adding jobs again. With the exception of November 2009, payrolls have declined in every month since the recession began in December 2007.

That has piled political pressure on President Barack Obama (http://www.foxbusiness.com/topics/politics/obama-administration/barack-obama.htm), whose popularity fell as the jobless rate rose to a 26-year high.

In an economic report released earlier on Thursday, the White House said it expects job creation to resume this year, although the unemployment rate will fall only slowly and it was concerned about the large number of people out of work for a prolonged period.

The Labor Department's report showed the number of people applying for benefits after an initial week of aid fell to 4.54 million in the week ended Jan. 30, the lowest in 13 months. However, that figure is somewhat skewed by the fact that many people have dropped off the rolls because they have exhausted benefits, not because they have found new jobs.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/economy/jobless-claims-fall-sharply-latest-week/#

BigRedChief
02-19-2010, 08:15 AM
Core inflation drops for first time since 1982
Consumer prices including food and energy rise less than expected too
The Associated Press
updated 8:02 a.m. CT, Fri., Feb. 19, 2010

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WASHINGTON - Consumer prices rose less than expected in January while prices excluding food and energy actually fell, something that hasn't happened in more than a quarter-century.

The Labor Department said Friday that consumer prices edged up 0.2 percent in January while prices excluding food and energy slipped 0.1 percent. That was the first monthly decline since December 1982.
The benign inflation news gives the Federal Reserve more time to keep interest rates at record-low levels to shore up the economy and should ease worries in financial markets that a Fed rate hike is more imminent.
The news on consumer prices was better than expected, especially after a government report Thursday showed that wholesale prices shot up 1.4 percent in January.

The 0.2 percent rise in overall prices reflected a 2.8 percent jump in energy costs, the biggest one-month gain since August. Energy prices were driven up by a 4.4 percent rise in gasoline pump prices and a 3.5 percent increase in the cost of natural gas.

Food prices rose a moderate 0.2 percent even though fruit and vegetable costs jumped by 1.3 percent.

The 0.1 percent fall in core inflation, which excludes energy and food, was the first monthly decrease in core inflation since a similar 0.1 percent fall in December 1982. This drop reflected falling prices for shelter, new cars and airline fares.

The decrease underscored the absence of inflation pressures at the moment and should help ease worries in financial markets about a likely Fed rate hike. Those concerns were triggered on Thursday when the Fed announced that it would increase its discount lending rate by a quarter-point to 0.75 percent. This is the rate it charges banks for emergency loans.

Although the Fed said the step should not be seen as a signal that it would soon begin raising a key target for consumer and business loans, global financial markets were roiled by the Thursday announcement.
Private economists, however, said they still believe that the Fed's first increase in the more important federal funds rate will not occur until this fall at the earliest because they expect inflation to remain tame as the country struggles to mount a sustained rebound from a deep recession.
High unemployment is keeping a lid on wage gains and consumer spending is being constrained by the weak income growth, which means businesses don't have the ability to boost the price of their goods.

Copyright 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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');if (typeof FDCPUrl == 'function'){FDCPUrl();}else if(window.print){window.print()}else{alert('To print his page press Ctrl-P on your keyboard \nor choose print from your browser or device after clicking OK');}}</SCRIPT>URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35476050/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/ (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35476050/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/)

HonestChieffan
02-19-2010, 08:20 AM
http://washingtonrebel.typepad.com/.a/6a00d835349ad569e20120a8b2188f970b-500wi

petegz28
02-19-2010, 10:21 AM
I notice you didn't post the rise in jobless claims yesterday or the rise in PPI....

BigRedChief
02-19-2010, 10:25 AM
I notice you didn't post the rise in jobless claims yesterday or the rise in PPI....Didn't see it.

BigRedChief
02-19-2010, 10:25 AM
Fewer people falling behind on home loans
Decline also notable because delinquencies usually rise this time of year
The Associated Press
updated 9:06 a.m. CT, Fri., Feb. 19, 2010
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WASHINGTON - The number of American borrowers falling behind on their mortgage payments dropped sharply at the end of last year, a sign the foreclosure crisis is beginning to ebb.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said Friday the percentage of borrowers who missed just one payment on their home loans fell to 3.63 percent in the October to December quarter, down from 3.79 percent in the third quarter.
The decline was even more remarkable because delinquencies usually rise at that time of year because of heating bills and holiday spending.

However, more than 15 percent of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage had missed at least one payment or were in foreclosure, a new record for the 10th-straight quarter
"The bad news is that we still have a big problem," said Jay Brinkmann, the trade group's chief economist. "The good news is it looks like it may not get much bigger."

Copyright 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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');if (typeof FDCPUrl == 'function'){FDCPUrl();}else if(window.print){window.print()}else{alert('To print his page press Ctrl-P on your keyboard \nor choose print from your browser or device after clicking OK');}}</SCRIPT>URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35478157/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/ (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35478157/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/)

The Mad Crapper
02-23-2010, 11:37 AM
Fewer people falling behind on home loans


Similar headline circa 1945: Japanese running out of Kamikaze pilots.

mlyonsd
02-25-2010, 08:26 AM
New Jobless Claims Jumped to 496,000 as Heavy Snow Caused Rise in Layoffs


WASHINGTON -- The number of new claims for unemployment benefits jumped unexpectedly last week as heavy snows caused layoffs to rise.

In addition, many state agencies in the mid-Atlantic and New England regions that process the claims were closed due to the storms and are now clearing out backlogs, a Labor Department analyst said.

The department said Thursday that first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 496,000. Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a drop to 455,000.

Bad weather can cause job losses in construction and other industries sensitive to weather.

Economists closely watch initial claims, which are considered a gauge of the pace of layoffs and an indication of companies' willingness to hire new workers.

The four-week average, which smooths volatility, rose by 6,000 to 473,750.

The four-week average has risen by about 30,000 in the past month, raising concerns that job cuts are continuing. Initial claims had fallen sharply over the summer and fall but the improvement has stalled since the year began.

The economy has grown for six months but is not yet spurring new hiring. Many economists point out that the current recovery is weak compared to the aftermath of previous deep recessions.

The Labor Department said earlier this month that while the unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent from 10 percent, employers still cut 20,000 jobs. The economy has lost 8.4 million jobs since the recession began.

The Federal Reserve said last week that it expects the rate will average between 9.5 percent and 9.7 percent this year.

The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits, meanwhile, was essentially unchanged at 4.6 million. Those figures, known as "continuing claims," lag initial claims by a week.

But there are now many more people receiving extended unemployment benefits that aren't included in the continuing claims figures. Congress has provided up to 73 weeks of extra benefits, paid for by the federal government, for jobless workers who have used up the standard 26 weeks of benefits customarily provided by states.

About 5.7 million people received extended benefits in the week ended Feb. 6, the latest data available, down from more than 6 million the previous week. The extended benefit data isn't seasonally adjusted and is volatile from week to week.

Among the states, North Carolina had biggest increase in claims, with 5,897, which it attributed to layoffs in the construction, furniture and mining industries. Pennsylvania and Kentucky also reported large increases. The state data lags initial claims by one week.

California reported the largest drop in claims, with 5,540, which it attributed to fewer layoffs in services. Illinois, New York, Texas and Missouri recorded the next largest decreases.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/02/25/new-jobless-claims-rise-unexpectedly/

BigRedChief
02-25-2010, 08:29 AM
HTF does a snow storm cause layoffs? So you are slow for a week or two? You hire employees or fire them based on 1-2 weeks of business?

Chief Faithful
02-25-2010, 08:52 AM
And yet all the new jobs are government jobs.

KC native
02-25-2010, 09:41 AM
HTF does a snow storm cause layoffs? So you are slow for a week or two? You hire employees or fire them based on 1-2 weeks of business?

This is yet another pet peeve of mine. The retail associations are real bad about this. Sales were off, "it must have been the weather". Sales were good, "It must have been the weather."

News organizations are the worst about this crap. They want a reason so bad for their story that they come up with this nonsense. That is just bad reporting as this report falls in line with what we've been seeing. It would have been more informative to compare it to the trend of the reports from the last year.

petegz28
02-25-2010, 09:57 AM
This is yet another pet peeve of mine. The retail associations are real bad about this. Sales were off, "it must have been the weather". Sales were good, "It must have been the weather."

News organizations are the worst about this crap. They want a reason so bad for their story that they come up with this nonsense. That is just bad reporting as this report falls in line with what we've been seeing. It would have been more informative to compare it to the trend of the reports from the last year.

Global warming cost us jobs!!!

The Mad Crapper
02-25-2010, 12:00 PM
http://www.economicvindicator.com/2010/02/nyc-transit-to-cut-more-than-1000-jobs.html

BigRedChief
02-26-2010, 08:01 AM
Economy ends 2009 at faster pace than thought
Strongest showing in six years, but it may not last into 2010
The Associated Press
updated 7:57 a.m. CT, Fri., Feb. 26, 2010

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WASHINGTON - The economy rocketed ahead at a 5.9 percent pace in the final quarter of 2009, stronger than initially estimated. But the growth spurt isn't expected to carry over into this year.

The fresh reading on the nation's economic standing, released by the Commerce Department on Friday, was better than the government's initial estimate a month ago of 5.7 percent growth. It would mark the strongest showing in six years.

Even so, it didn't change the expectation of much slower economic activity in the current January-to-March quarter.

Roughly two-thirds of last quarter's growth came from a burst of manufacturing -- but not because consumer demand was especially strong. In fact, consumer spending weakened at the end of the year, even more than the government first thought.

Instead, factories were churning out goods for businesses that had let their stockpiles dwindle to save cash. If consumer spending remains lackluster as expected, that burst of manufacturing — and its contribution to economic activity — will fade.

The signs aren't hopeful. Consumer confidence took an unexpected dive in February. Unemployment stands at 9.7 percent. Home foreclosures are at record highs. And many Americans are still having trouble getting loans.
Forecasters at the National Association for Business Economics predict the economy will expand at only a 3 percent pace in the first quarter of this year. The next two quarters should log similar growth, they predict.
Unlike past rebounds driven by the spending of shoppers, this one is hinging more on spending by businesses and foreigners.

Stronger spending by businesses and foreigners contributed to the bump-up in economic growth in the fourth quarter. So did the fact that companies stopped slashing their stockpiles of goods. During the worst of the recession, companies cut inventories at record rates.

Businesses boosted spending on equipment and software at a sizzling 18.2 percent pace, the fastest in nine years. Foreigners snapped up U.S.-made goods and services, which propelled exports to grow at 22.4 pace, the most in 13 years.
And the slower drawdown in businesses' stockpiles accounted for nearly 4 percentage points of the fourth-quarter's overall growth, even more than the government first estimated.

Wary consumers
Consumers, however, lost energy. They increased their spending at a pace of just 1.7 percent. That was weaker than first thought and down from a 2.8 percent growth rate in the third quarter.

Looking ahead, consumer spending is expected to aid the recovery — not lead it. That's one reason why the recovery is expected to move forward at only a moderate pace of around 3 percent in coming quarters.
In normal times, such growth would be considered respectable. But the nation is emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s. Sizzling growth in the 5 percent range would be needed for an entire year to drive down the unemployment rate, now 9.7 percent, by just 1 percentage point.

For all of this year, the economy is expected to grow 3.1 percent, according to the NABE forecasters. Though modest, that pace would mark a big improvement from 2009, when the economy contracted by 2.4 percent — the worst showing since 1946.

As government stimulus wanes and Federal Reserve economic-support programs end, the economy — especially the fragile housing market — could suffer. Economists say the odds of the economy sliding back into a recession this year are low, but they won't rule it out.

In appearances on Capitol Hill on Wednesday and Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said record-low interest rates are still needed to make sure the recovery becomes firmly rooted and to help ease high unemployment.

If gains from inventories and exports are taken out, the economy last quarter grew at just a 1.6 percent pace.

And, improvements in the housing market also tailed off at the end of last year — despite massive government support.

There's worry inside and outside the Fed about how housing will fare once a homebuyer tax credit ends in the spring and the Fed stops a mortgage-securities buying program that has lowered mortgage rates and boosted sales.

© 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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petegz28
02-26-2010, 09:09 AM
Ok, I notice you left out the reports that Consumer Confidence was down again and existing home sales fell 7%

BigRedChief
02-26-2010, 09:21 AM
Ok, I notice you left out the reports that Consumer Confidence was down again and existing home sales fell 7%Didn't see them. all I see is what is posted on obama.com.

wild1
02-26-2010, 09:22 AM
all I see is what is posted on obama.com.

We know. :Poke: :doh!:

petegz28
02-26-2010, 09:44 AM
Didn't see them. all I see is what is posted on obama.com.

Do yourself a favor. Get your economic news elsewhere.

Here is a good starting point

www.bloomberg.com

The Mad Crapper
02-26-2010, 01:23 PM
WASHINGTON – The Senate failed Friday to extend programs for laid-off workers, jeopardizing unemployment benefits scheduled to expire over the weekend.

The benefits are part of a larger package of government programs, from highway funding to loans for small businesses, set to expire Sunday because senators couldn't agree on how to pay to keep them going.

The House passed a bill Thursday extending the programs for one month while lawmakers consider how to address the issues long-term. Senate Democrats repeatedly tried to follow suit Thursday night and Friday morning, but they couldn't overcome the objections of a single lawmaker, Republican Sen. Jim Bunning of Kentucky, that the $10 billion bill would add to the budget deficit.

The bill would extend unemployment payments to laid-off workers and provide them with subsidies to help pay health premiums through the COBRA program. It would extend funding for highway projects and spare doctors from a 21 percent cut in Medicare payments. It would extend a small business loan program, the National Flood Insurance Program and the copyright license used by satellite television

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100226/ap_on_go_co/us_unemployment_benefits

Stinger
02-26-2010, 01:39 PM
Housing Recovery Is Looking A Lot Shakier Than Expected

Posted By: Albert Bozzo | Senior Features Editor
CNBC.com


The recent slump in housing is making some analysts uneasy about a recovery that many thought sustainable just a couple months ago and comes at a time when the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of a critical, year-long program to support the mortgage market.

“Housing is at a pivotal, ambiguous point,” says Ted Gayer, co-director of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution.

A spate of recent reports from home sales to mortgage activity has been starkly negative. And, even if some of it can be written off to seasonal patterns, namely weather, the weakness is not what what people expected with the extension and expansion of the government’s homebuyer tax credit that jacked sales for several months last summer and fall.

New homes sales fell to a record low in January, extending a two-month slide; pending and existing home sales were down in December; homebuilder sentiment in January fell back to where it was last June, and mortgage applications have fallen three of the past four weeks,
# Existing-Home Sales Plunge In January

“The data is telling us that it is weaker than we’ve been anticipating,” says Pat Newport, a housing analyst at IHS Global Insight. “What the housing market has needed all along is a better economy.”

Even the optimists never expected a traditional housing recovery with unemployment stubbornly high, the consumer balance sheet still in repair mode and credit conditions stingy, but right now there’s palpable worry about momentum—especially given a string of solid months in mid- to late-2009.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s outlook was and remains “fairly cautious,” says Michael Fratantony, vice president of research. “I think we were getting some false signals in the late summer and early fall, when we seeing some price increase, that were more than the seasonal impact.”

The MBA is expecting a modest year-over-year increase in home sales and housing starts, with prices leveling out.

Global Insight, for one, says it will probably lower its projections for housing starts and new home sales. The homebuyer tax credit, which now applies to repeat buyers and not just first-time ones, “isn’t panning out, its’ not registering," says Newport. “Demand for new housing is a lot weaker than we thought it would be.”

As sales jumped last year, making the tax credit look like a major success, some analysts feared that it would hurt sales later, essentially pushing activity forward. That now appears to be the case.

Bargain Prices Cut Both Ways

Meanwhile, foreclosed properties continue to dominate sales with less than the usual activity in the middle market, where people trade up to new or better existing homes.

“Foreclosed homes are selling at remarkable pace,” says Richard Smith, CEO of Realogy, the national real estate company, whose brands include Coldwell Banker, Century 21 and The Corcoran Group. “People are looking for the value play. The majority of homes are being bought by investors and first-time buyers..

Smith says the government’s mortgage modification program meant to avert foreclosures “is doing nothing more than prolonging the housing recovery. It is doing more harm than good.”

The government’s Making Home Affordable program has led to slightly more than 118,000 mortgage modifications since its inception last April. Some 830,000 people have qualified for a trial modification the program.

Some 4.5 million homes are expected to fall to foreclosure this year, following 2.8 million in 2009. In contrast, existing homes sales for the two-year period will average about 5.5 million.

““In spite of the best intentions, this is not going to work,” says Smith.

Smith remains optimistic, at least through the first half of the year, saying he sees signs of a recovery at the high end and that the overall market needs nothing more than a little help from an improving economy. He’s uncertain, however, about the second half.

All Eyes On Fed MBS Progam

For some analysts, uncertainty is just around the bend. That’s because one of the government’s most successful programs is scheduled to end by March 31. That’s the Federal Reserve’s massive $1.42 billion dollar program to buy mortgage backed securities, MBS, and government agency debt.

The program, initiated about a year ago, lowered 30-year mortgages rates from roughly 6.00 percent to 5.00 percent and in the process narrowed the spread between 10-year Treasury note and long-term loans to more attractive levels. The program created much needed liquidity in the mortgage lending market because private firms were not lending.

The Fed has been gradually slowing those purchases to create, as stated in its January FOMC statement, “a smooth transition” for the markets.

“I do see headwinds in the housing market,” says Scott Anderson, senior economist with Wells Fargo. “The headwinds will intensify. The first real test of that will be the end of the MBS program at the end of March.

The government’s goal is have the private mortgage market pick up more of the lending.

“If you stop doing it, mortgage rates will go up--we just don’t know how much, “ says veteran Fed watcher David Jones of DMJ Advisors.

Rates To Rise But How Much?

The market's range for that increase is somewhat large--between a fifth of a percentage point and a full percentage point. A consensus, however, seems to have formed around half a percentage point. At the worst then, 30-year mortgage rates would be around 6 percent, which is still historically low and thus presumably attractive to borrowers.

“It will have a negative impact, but not a great negative impact,” says Jed Smith, an economist with the National Association of Realtors. “I don’t think it will kill the housing market recovery.”

Another uncertainly is what the Fed does after it stops buying. Does it begin selling its massive portfolio or does it hold it? Does it wait a short or long amount of time to sell? Does it sell gradually, regularly or more aggressively? Does it signal its intentions or not?

“I don’t think the Fed wants to be permanently supporting the housing market,” says Gayer of Brookings. “The longer you stay in the harder it is for the private market to stand up again.”

The problem is no one knows because it hasn’t been done before.

“The Fed is going to be completely winging it,” says Jones of the Fed's overall exit policy.

The Fed is unlikely to change its plans at this point, unless a major negative hits the economy, although some say it should be willing to reconsider at this point.

"The credit markets are still dysfunctional, the banking system is still in distress," says Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at IHS Global Insight. "There's no new credit flowing. The Fed is obviously getting too impatient about tightening credit."

Future Options

Other economists say Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled his concern about the housing market and implied the Fed was paying very close attention to it in his two appearances before Congress this week.

"The Fed has said it is constantly under review," says Robert Brusca, chief economist with Fact & Opinion Economics. "The Fed may have to revisit it."

That could be as simply as re-entering the market, if interest rates too much.

In addition, industry sources familiar with the thinking of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Bernanke about the MBS program say they are keenly aware of the downside risk.
"He'[Bernanke] is only going to remove that money if the real estate market can sustain itself," said one source.

"Geithner made it clear they're not going to do anything stupid," said another.

That may be, but there's legitimate concern about the housing market recovery, even including those who rightly called its apparent bottom last spring.

"There's an issue now as to whether we get a double dip in housing--and I think he will," says Jones.
© 2010 CNBC.com

URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/35589633/

BigRedChief
03-01-2010, 09:13 AM
Spending rises, but income growth slows
Americans had to dip into savings, which could threaten recovery
The Associated Press
updated 8:20 a.m. CT, Mon., March. 1, 2010

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WASHINGTON - Personal spending jumped by a larger amount than expected in January but Americans' incomes barely budged as millions of Social Security recipients did not get their usual cost of living boost. The weak income growth could depress spending in the months ahead, acting as a further drag on the fragile economic recovery.

The Commerce Department said Monday that personal spending rose by 0.5 percent in January, slightly better than expected. But incomes edged up only 0.1 percent, significantly lower than the 0.4 percent gain that economists had expected.

The income gain was the weakest showing in four months and raised more concerns about whether consumers will be able to keep spending at a sufficiently strong pace to support an economic rebound. Consumer spending is closely watched because it accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity.

The 0.1 percent rise in incomes was below the 0.4 percent gain that economists had expected. The weakness came even though private wages and salaries were up by $16.1 billion at an annual rate, compared to a $2.3 billion gain in December.

However, households did not get the usual boost they see from the government's annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security and other benefits. The 50 million recipients of Social Security saw no gain at all in January because of low inflation, the first time that has occurred in more than three decades. In January 2009, incomes had risen at an annual rate of $41.1 billion because of that year's cost of living adjustment.

For the past two years, income growth has been held back by job losses caused by the worst recession since the 1930s. For all of 2009, personal incomes actually fell by 1.7 percent, the weakest showing since the Great Depression year of 1938, when incomes had fallen by 7.7 percent.
In January, after-tax incomes actually dropped by 0.4 percent, the biggest monthly decline since last July.

With after-tax incomes falling as spending increased, the personal savings rate dipped to 3.3 percent in January, down from 4.2 percent in December. For all of 2009, the savings rate had risen to 4.3 percent, the highest annual savings rate since 1998.

The dip in the savings rate in January was seen as temporary blip. Economists believe the savings rate will continue rising as households struggle to cope with the continued threat of job layoffs by rebuilding their tattered balance sheets.

Inflation continued to be a no-show. A price gauge tied to personal consumption edged up a small 0.2 percent in January and was unchanged when volatile food and energy prices were removed.

The government said Friday that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, grew at an annual rate of 5.9 percent in the final three months of last year, the strongest growth in six years. However, economists believe that growth spurt, powered by a swing in business inventories, has slowed sharply since that time.

Top forecasters surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics believe the economy is expanding at about half the fourth quarter pace in the current January-March quarter. They expect GDP growth will remain around 3 percent for the rest of the year. It is this modest growth pace that has led economists to believe little progress will be made this year in reducing the nation's jobless rate, which currently stands at 9.7 percent.

Copyright 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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BigRedChief
03-04-2010, 08:35 AM
http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/04/news/economy/initial_claims/index.htm?hpt=T2

Unemployment claims drop

By Blake Ellis, staff reporterMarch 4, 2010: 9:17 AM ET


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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of Americans filing for initial unemployment insurance fell last week, the government said Thursday.
There were 469,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended Feb. 27, the lowest level since Jan. 9 and down 29,000 from a revised 498,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said in a weekly report.

<!--endclickprintexclude--><!-- /REAP -->A consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected new claims to drop to 470,000.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims was 470,750, down 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 474,250.

"It's a big drop, and we're moving in the right direction, but we're still not really at the level where I would hope we would be," said Tim Quinlan, economic analyst at Wells Fargo. "It seems like the gradual improvement we saw at the end of last year is leveling off at this point."

Continuing claims: The government said 4,500,000 people filed continuing claims in the week ended Feb. 20, the most recent data available. That's down 134,000 from the preceding week's revised 4,634,000 claims.

The 4-week moving average for ongoing claims fell by 29,250 to 4,575,750 from the previous week's revised 4,605,000.

But the drop may just mean that more filers are dropping off those rolls into extended benefits.

Continuing claims reflect people filing each week after their initial claim until the end of their standard benefits, which usually last 26 weeks. The figures do not include those people who have moved to state or federal extensions, or people whose benefits have expired.

More than 200,000 people would have stopped receiving checks from the government this week after lawmakers let the Feb. 28 deadline to apply for extended benefits lapse. But after days of fighting, the Senate finally agreed Tuesday to push back the deadline (http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/02/news/economy/jobless_benefits_extended/index.htm?postversion=2010030312) until April 5, and President Obama signed the bill shortly after.

The extension came a day after Democratic senators unveiled a $150 billion bill (http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/01/news/economy/unemployment_benefits/index.htm?postversion=2010030214) that would push back the deadline to file for unemployment insurance until the end of the year and extend a number of expiring corporate and personal tax credits.

State-by-state: Unemployment claims in 12 states fell more than 1,000 for the week ended Feb. 20, the most recent data available. Claims in California dropped the most, by 12,000 due to a shorter workweek and fewer layoffs in the service industry.

A total of 7 states said the claims rose by more than 1,000. Claims in New Jersey jumped the most, by 4,879, which the state attributed to weather-related office closures and a backlog of claims due to a statewide furlough day during the prior week.

Outlook: Quinlan said that while the decline in claims last week is an improvement, the numbers have been inconsistent week to week, partly due to the weather.

"The numbers for the last several weeks have been really polluted by all the craziness we've been experiencing with the weather," he said. "We've had all these blizzards and it's really wreaking havoc on the data."
That's because, he said, so many people end up going to the claims office at the same time after the bad weather clears up, skewing the number of claims filed.

Weather factors aside, Quinlan said he doesn't think last week's jobless claims number is enough of an improvement.

"At the end of December we were averaging about 450,000 claims, so if we got down below that for March I would feel like that was an improvement," he said. "But the current levels aren't supportive of payroll growth, and they really need to be below 400,000 to see steady growth in payrolls."

In the coming months, Quinlan said he expects growth in the manufacturing sector and U.S. Census Bureau hiring to contribute to modest improvement in the employment landscape.

"The pace of decline that we saw in the second half of the year is leveling off, but I think we should start to see some gradual improvement and begin working our way back down to 400,000 in the next couple of months," he said

petegz28
03-04-2010, 12:07 PM
Pending homesales dropped 7% too. Guess you missed that one again?

BigRedChief
03-05-2010, 10:05 AM
Economy sheds fewer jobs than expected
Unemployment rate remains unchanged at 9.7 percent in February
Reuters
updated 9:05 a.m. CT, Fri., March. 5, 2010
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WASHINGTON - U.S. employers cut a smaller than expected 36,000 jobs in February, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 9.7 percent,
bolstering views the labor market was on the brink of creating jobs.
The Labor Department said Friday it was unclear how the severe snowstorms, which hit much of the country last month, had impacted payrolls. Jobs losses for December and January were revised to show 35,000 fewer jobs lost than previously reported.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected non-farm payrolls to drop 50,000 last month and the unemployment rate to edge up to 9.8 percent. The median forecast from the 20 most accurate forecasters also saw payrolls falling by 50,000, while the 10 most accurate economists predicted a 70,000 decline.

"This is encouraging news, indicating the recovery is still on track," said Gary Thayer, chief macrostrategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis.
The White House on Friday blamed February snowstorms for the job cuts and said a pattern of stabilization and gradual healing is taking place.
White House senior economic adviser Christina Romer said in a statement that the overall trajectory of the U.S. economy appears to be continuing to improve although there will be bumps on the road.

Traders bet the stronger-than-expected number might encourage the Federal Reserve to begin lifting short term interest rates from near zero later this year. Trading in U.S. short-term interest rate futures after the data was published showed investors thought the central bank would hike its benchmark interest rate by November.

"The emergency interest rate level is no longer warranted either for the markets or the economy," said Chris Rupkey, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York.

"The Fed is going to take out the scissors to its press statement. They will no longer be telling the global markets on March 16 that exceptionally low rates are needed for an extended period," he added, referring to the Fed's next policy-setting meeting.

Half of the job losses came from government workers, but that category is expected to see huge gains in the coming months as more workers are hired for the once-a-decade U.S. census. In February, 15,000 temporary census workers were hired.

Analysts had feared that the heavy snowstorms that hit large areas of the United States during the survey week for the employment report would cause a huge drop in payrolls.

However, the department said while the winter storms might have affected its employment count, it was difficult to quantify the net impact.
"Nor do we know how new hiring or separations were affected by the weather. For those reasons, we cannot say how much February's payroll employment was affected by the severe weather," said Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Keith Hall.

The department noted that not every closure or temporary absence causes a drop in employment, because workers are counted as employed if they receive any pay during the survey period, even if it is for just an hour.

Moreover, it was unclear how many workers may have been added to payrolls in February for snow removal or repairs related to the storm, it said.

Unemployment is one of the toughest challenges facing President Barack Obama, whose approval ratings have dropped.

Obama and fellow Democrats worry voters could punish them in November congressional elections if no progress is made in putting Americans back to work as the economy emerges from its worst downturn since the 1930s.

Since the start of the recession, 8.36 million jobs have been lost. The labor market has been gradually improving and the pace of layoffs has slowed markedly from early 2009 when the economy was losing 750,000 jobs on average a month.

Manufacturing added 1,000 jobs in February, but construction payrolls fell 64,000 jobs. Temporary hiring added 48,000.

The average workweek for all employees slipped to 33.8 hours from 33.9 hours in January.

Job growth is crucial for the sustainability of the economic recovery that started in the second half of 2009.

Analysts worry that tepid consumer spending could result in the economy's growth sputtering when the impact of government stimulus and the rebuilding of inventories by businesses fades later this year.

Copyright 2010 Reuters. Click for restrictions.
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The Mad Crapper
03-05-2010, 10:06 AM
Unemployment rate remains unchanged at 9.7 percent in February


Only an O-Bot sycophant could spin that as good news.

petegz28
03-05-2010, 10:26 AM
Economy sheds fewer jobs than expected
Unemployment rate remains unchanged at 9.7 percent in February
Reuters
updated 9:05 a.m. CT, Fri., March. 5, 2010
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WASHINGTON - U.S. employers cut a smaller than expected 36,000 jobs in February, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 9.7 percent,
bolstering views the labor market was on the brink of creating jobs.
The Labor Department said Friday it was unclear how the severe snowstorms, which hit much of the country last month, had impacted payrolls. Jobs losses for December and January were revised to show 35,000 fewer jobs lost than previously reported.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected non-farm payrolls to drop 50,000 last month and the unemployment rate to edge up to 9.8 percent. The median forecast from the 20 most accurate forecasters also saw payrolls falling by 50,000, while the 10 most accurate economists predicted a 70,000 decline.

"This is encouraging news, indicating the recovery is still on track," said Gary Thayer, chief macrostrategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis.
The White House on Friday blamed February snowstorms for the job cuts and said a pattern of stabilization and gradual healing is taking place.
White House senior economic adviser Christina Romer said in a statement that the overall trajectory of the U.S. economy appears to be continuing to improve although there will be bumps on the road.

Traders bet the stronger-than-expected number might encourage the Federal Reserve to begin lifting short term interest rates from near zero later this year. Trading in U.S. short-term interest rate futures after the data was published showed investors thought the central bank would hike its benchmark interest rate by November.

"The emergency interest rate level is no longer warranted either for the markets or the economy," said Chris Rupkey, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York.

"The Fed is going to take out the scissors to its press statement. They will no longer be telling the global markets on March 16 that exceptionally low rates are needed for an extended period," he added, referring to the Fed's next policy-setting meeting.

Half of the job losses came from government workers, but that category is expected to see huge gains in the coming months as more workers are hired for the once-a-decade U.S. census. In February, 15,000 temporary census workers were hired.

Analysts had feared that the heavy snowstorms that hit large areas of the United States during the survey week for the employment report would cause a huge drop in payrolls.

However, the department said while the winter storms might have affected its employment count, it was difficult to quantify the net impact.
"Nor do we know how new hiring or separations were affected by the weather. For those reasons, we cannot say how much February's payroll employment was affected by the severe weather," said Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Keith Hall.

The department noted that not every closure or temporary absence causes a drop in employment, because workers are counted as employed if they receive any pay during the survey period, even if it is for just an hour.

Moreover, it was unclear how many workers may have been added to payrolls in February for snow removal or repairs related to the storm, it said.

Unemployment is one of the toughest challenges facing President Barack Obama, whose approval ratings have dropped.

Obama and fellow Democrats worry voters could punish them in November congressional elections if no progress is made in putting Americans back to work as the economy emerges from its worst downturn since the 1930s.

Since the start of the recession, 8.36 million jobs have been lost. The labor market has been gradually improving and the pace of layoffs has slowed markedly from early 2009 when the economy was losing 750,000 jobs on average a month.

Manufacturing added 1,000 jobs in February, but construction payrolls fell 64,000 jobs. Temporary hiring added 48,000.

The average workweek for all employees slipped to 33.8 hours from 33.9 hours in January.

Job growth is crucial for the sustainability of the economic recovery that started in the second half of 2009.

Analysts worry that tepid consumer spending could result in the economy's growth sputtering when the impact of government stimulus and the rebuilding of inventories by businesses fades later this year.

Copyright 2010 Reuters. Click for restrictions.
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Real Unemployment rose to 16.8%

The U6 alternative gauge of the unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 16.8% from 16.5%.

The Mad Crapper
03-05-2010, 11:53 AM
"Only" 10% unemployment! Obama is awesome! - BRC

ROFL

BigRedChief
03-12-2010, 11:26 AM
Retail sales rise unexpectedly in February
Commerce Department report bolsters hopes of a sustainable recovery
The Associated Press
updated 10:49 a.m. CT, Fri., March. 12, 2010

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WASHINGTON - Retail sales posted a surprising increase in February as consumers did not let major snowstorms stop them from racking up purchases. The advance, the biggest since November, provided hope that the recovery from the Great Recession is gaining momentum.

Some economists cautioned, though, that spending increases will remain modest as long as wages stay flat and job creation weak. They also noted that the government revised down the increase in retail sales for January.
For February, sales rose 0.3 percent, the Commerce Department said Friday. That surpassed expectations that sales would decline 0.2 percent.
The overall gain was held back by a 2 percent decline in auto sales, reflecting in part the recall problems at Toyota. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.8 percent. That was far better than the 0.1 percent increase excluding autos that economists had forecast.

But the February sales gain followed a scant rise in January and a slight decline for December. The increase for January was revised down from 0.5 percent to 0.1 percent.

"Weak jobs growth, low wages growth and tight credit mean that any further acceleration in consumption growth is unlikely," Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note.

Still, the February gain suggested that consumers are spending more freely than they were a few months ago. The increases were widespread.
Sales surged at department stores, furniture stores, appliance shops and hardware stores. Restaurants and bars enjoyed a 0.9 percent advance, their biggest gain in nearly two years. That suggested that snowbound Americans headed out to eat and get a break from their homes.


Consumer spending is being watched carefully because it accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity. Economists have been worried that the economic recovery could falter if spending begins to lag. The better-than-expected February gain could ease those concerns.

Economists are hoping that businesses, which have shed 8.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, will start rehiring laid off workers. That would give households the incomes they need to support spending growth.

Some analysts had suspected that the February retail sales report could offer a positive surprise, given encouraging news last week from the nation's big retail chains. The International Council of Shopping Centers had reported that sales jumped 3.7 percent in February compared with a year ago. That marked the third straight increase.
Shoppers shrugged off major snowstorms to visit a broad array of merchants from luxury retailer Nordstrom Inc. to middlebrow Macy's Inc. to discounter Target Corp. All three chains reported solid sales increases that beat analysts expectations.

"The economy is starting to accelerate," said Christopher Rupkey, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York. "The snowstorms couldn't keep consumers away from the cash registers and neither could the constraints imposed by tightening credit card terms and near double-digit unemployment."

In a separate report, Commerce said business inventories were basically unchanged in January. Total business sales rose 0.6 percent, the eighth straight monthly increase.


Economists are hoping that the increases in sales will drive businesses to restock their depleted store shelves. The restocking would boost production and provide increased support for the recovery.

The retail sales report Friday showed that sales at general merchandise stores, the category that includes department stores and big discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., rose by 1 percent in February after a 1.3 percent rise in January.

Sales at appliance stores were up 3.7 percent while sales at hardware stores rose by 0.5 percent. Sales at gasoline stations posed a 0.3 percent rise.

© 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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BigRedChief
03-12-2010, 11:27 AM
New wave of foreclosures threatens market
Up to 7 million homes are potentially eligible but haven’t been repossessed
By Renae Merle
The Washington Post
updated 4:52 a.m. CT, Fri., March. 12, 2010

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WASHINGTON - The housing market is facing swelling ranks of homeowners who are seriously delinquent but have yet to lose their homes, and this is threatening a new wave of foreclosures that could hit just as the real estate market has begun to stabilize.

About 5 million to 7 million properties are potentially eligible for foreclosure but have not yet been repossessed and put up for sale. Some economists project it could take nearly three years before all these homes have been put on the market and purchased by new owners.

And the number of pending foreclosures could grow much bigger over the coming year as more distressed borrowers become delinquent and then, if they can't obtain mortgage relief, wade through the foreclosure process, which often takes more than a year to complete.

As these foreclosed properties add to the supply of homes for sale, they could undercut housing prices, which have increased modestly through December, according to the most recent figures in the S&P/Case-Shiller home prices index. That rise partly reflected a slowdown in the flow of foreclosed homes onto the market.

The rate at which J.P. Morgan Chase seized properties, for example, peaked in the middle of 2008 and fell steadily last year, according to a February investor report. But the bank expects repossessions to increase this year, nearly doubling to 45,000 by the fourth quarter.

Backlog
"Some of the positive housing data may not be signaling a true turning point, as many servicers are holding back on foreclosures and the related houses are not yet being offered for sale," said Diane Westerback, a managing director at Standard & Poor's. Westerback said it could take 33 months to clear the backlog.

Data released Thursday by RealtyTrac illustrate the dynamic (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35812835/ns/business-real_estate/). While banks repossessed fewer homes in February than a month earlier, borrowers continued to fall behind on their payments, adding to the inventory of properties headed toward foreclosure that have yet to be put on the market, said Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac's spokesman.

"Just looking at the numbers, we would expect there to be a bigger percentage of properties" repossessed by banks by now, he said.
This "shadow market" reflects the increasing lag between defaults and foreclosures. Many lenders are struggling to keep up with the overwhelming number of borrowers who can't make their payments, and they're reluctant to rush repossessed homes onto the market when prices are depressed.

Today's delinquent borrowers, for the most part, differ in a key regard from those who were caught up in the surge of defaults in 2008. That earlier wave, which precipitated the financial crisis, consisted largely of subprime borrowers who defaulted when their risky loans became unaffordable.

The borrowers in trouble now are, for the most part, people who have better credit and safer loans and have become delinquent because they've lost their jobs or are dealing with other economic setbacks, economists said. More than 75 percent of the borrowers who are now seriously delinquent — meaning they have missed at least three monthly payments — have traditional prime loans, according to First American CoreLogic. Most of these borrowers have not made a mortgage payment in six months.

These borrowers are among the most difficult to help. Homeowners with economic troubles such as extended unemployment often cannot make even reduced mortgage payments. And the longer borrowers stay delinquent, the more difficult it is to fashion a mortgage relief plan for them.

Some lenders are giving distressed borrowers more time to see whether they can modify the terms of their loans.

It can take a borrower six to seven months to find out whether he or she qualifies for a permanent loan modification under the federal foreclosure relief program, Making Home Affordable, according to Barclays Capital.
In Maryland, for example, lawmakers extended the foreclosure process from 15 days to 135 days in 2008 and are considering emergency legislation to force lenders into mediation with a borrower before foreclosing on a property. But other states and jurisdictions have even more drastic measures to slow down the foreclosure process. "There were cases where sheriffs were refusing to file foreclosure notices," said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.
After a temporary foreclosure moratorium in 2008, the backlog of homeowners facing foreclosure in Maryland has surged. The number of Maryland homeowners who are seriously delinquent or in the midst of the foreclosure process nearly doubled during the fourth quarter of 2009 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

"Lenders are deluged by late-stage delinquencies. The pent-up foreclosure inventory is there," said Massoud Ahmadi, director of research for the Maryland Department of Housing and Community Development.

The uptick in foreclosure sales is helping depress Maryland home prices, he said. "We have seen that home sales are on an upswing, but prices are on a downswing. That is the impact of the shadow inventory. It is keeping prices down," Ahmadi said.

In addition to those already in default are 11 million more U.S. borrowers who owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth — known as being underwater — and are in danger of becoming delinquent, said Sam Khater, chief economist for First American CoreLogic.

Over the past year, the number of foreclosed homes going up for sale has declined. Distressed properties made up just 38 percent of purchases in January, compared with the 49 percent peak in March 2009, according to the National Association of Realtors. That helped the inventory of homes on the market fall to a 7.8-month supply, close to the figure during normal times and down from more than 11 months in July 2008. But as prices continue to stabilize, lenders are likely to take advantage of the situation by putting more of these distressed properties on the market, economists said.

"Banks have remained in foreclosure paralysis, allowing that backlog to get larger and larger. You can't do that indefinitely," said Sandeep Bordia, head of U.S. residential credit strategy at Barclays Capital.

That impact could be muted if enough buyers emerge to snap up properties or efforts to enroll borrowers in mortgage relief programs improve. Some lenders are looking for ways to ease delinquent borrowers out of their homes without a foreclosure. For example, lenders are allowing more short sales, in which the home is sold for less than the outstanding loan balance. Citigroup is testing a program that allows delinquent borrowers to stay in their home for six months free if they leave the property in good condition, making it easier to sell afterward.
"We are anticipating a foreclosure glut that is likely to come up in next 16 to 18 months. We are trying to stay ahead of this," said Sanjiv Das, chief executive of CitiMortgage. These types of programs are "protecting house prices and consumer sentiment from going down further," he said.
The impact of the coming foreclosure wave will vary by region. The Washington area has a "shadow inventory" of about 67,000 properties that could go into foreclosure this year, an 11-month supply at the current sales rates, according to research by John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, Calif. That is slightly higher than the national average but far less than the hardest-hit communities, such as Orlando and Miami, where there is two-year backlog.

And the backlog will hang over some communities for years. By the end of 2012, 39 percent to 50 percent of home purchases in Phoenix will still be foreclosed properties, J.P. Morgan Chase has estimated. In Los Angeles, they'll account for 28 percent of home sales.

© 2010 The Washington Post Company
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Dottefan
03-13-2010, 11:11 AM
( Dottefan waits for all the republicans to be negative about this also.Leave it to the republicans to find the negative in everything..jezz..)

patteeu
03-13-2010, 11:19 AM
( Dottefan waits for all the republicans to be negative about this also.Leave it to the republicans to find the negative in everything..jezz..)

Yeah, it's really hard to find the negative in "New wave of foreclosures threatens market". I see what you mean.

:bong:

Dottefan
03-13-2010, 12:26 PM
Patteeu..I have you on ingnore...stop quoting me please. Thank you and have a nice day.

patteeu
03-13-2010, 12:39 PM
Patteeu..I have you on ingnore...stop quoting me please. Thank you and have a nice day.

:LOL:

:bong:

Saul Good
03-13-2010, 12:54 PM
( Dottefan waits for all the republicans to be negative about this also.Leave it to the republicans to find the negative in everything..jezz..)

What part of 7,000,000 more homes about to be foreclosed upon is a positive in your mind?

Chief Henry
03-13-2010, 01:43 PM
:LOL:

:bong:




I don't have you on ignore :D

petegz28
03-13-2010, 01:48 PM
Just to add what BRC left out, Consumer Sentiment was down and Wholesale Inventories were flat.

NewChief
03-13-2010, 01:49 PM
ROFL

Remember that poll I made a while back about the average IQ of the cons and the libs on this board? I might have to reconsider my vote thanks to some newcomers.

Saul Good
03-13-2010, 01:50 PM
I don't have you on ignore :D

I put patteeu on ignore just because we pretty much think the exact same way, so there's really no point in reading his posts.

The Mad Crapper
09-04-2010, 09:55 AM
ROFL:drool:


Romer: Unemployment data shows recovery continues
By Jay Heflin - 09/03/10 10:16 AM ET

White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairwoman Christina Romer on Friday said the Labor Department's report on the unemployed was better than expected as private-sector jobs increased by 67,000 in August.

"Against the backdrop of some unsettling economic data in the past few weeks, today's numbers are reassuring that growth and recovery are continuing," she stated in prepared remarks.

The Labor Department on Friday announced that the unemployment rate inched up to 9.6 percent in August, up from 9.5 percent in July.

The main contributor to the rate change was the government shedding 114,000 jobs as Census workers completed their work. Private-sector jobs continued to trend upward, adding 67,000 jobs last month.

Romer said that while the news is not as bleak as some expected, today's figures are lower than what is needed to grow the economy.

"There are a number of step[s] we could take to help increase private-sector job growth and put the economy on a path of steadily declining unemployment," she stated. "We will be working with Congress on these measures in the coming weeks."


http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/801-economy/117093-romer-unemployment-data-shows-recovery-continues

patteeu
09-04-2010, 10:04 AM
Unemployment only rose to 9.6 instead of 10.0 so it's a sure sign that the recovery will continue into the fall. An indian recovery summer if you will.

Stewie
09-04-2010, 10:16 AM
We'll see how the numbers are "revised."

U6 is the common number used before the data is completely manipulated. SGS includes all unemployed, underemployed, and people who have completely given up.

- August Unemployment: U.3 = 9.6%, U.6 = 16.7%, SGS = 22.0%
- August Payrolls Fall 54,000, Gain 60,000 Ex-Census Workers
- Better-Than-Expected Payroll Changes Were Not Statistically Meaningful

And the controlled media pick and choose what to focus on.

The least publicized economic figure today.


Construction Spending in U.S. Fell Twice as Much as Forecast
September 2nd, 2010
By Shobhana Chandra

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) — Construction spending in July fell twice as much as forecast, led by a slump in homebuilding that will depress U.S. economic growth.

The 1 percent drop brought spending to $805.2 billion, the lowest level in a decade, after a revised 0.8 percent drop in June that wiped out a previously estimated gain, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Spending on federal government projects fell by the most in a year.

BucEyedPea
09-04-2010, 10:24 AM
Some other false statistics— GDP includes govt spending. What a lie!

The Mad Crapper
09-04-2010, 04:18 PM
Unemployment only rose to 9.6 instead of 10.0 so it's a sure sign that the recovery will continue into the fall. An indian recovery summer if you will.

LMAO

The Mad Crapper
01-12-2011, 09:13 AM
Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Home prices fell for the 53rd consecutive month in November, taking the decline past that of the Great Depression for the first time in the prolonged housing slump, according to Zillow.

Home prices have fallen 26 percent since their peak in 2006, exceeding the 25.9 percent drop registered in the five years between 1928 and 1933, the housing data company said in a report on Monday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70961E20110111?source=patrick.net#fixedpanelContainer

ROYC75
01-12-2011, 12:36 PM
Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Home prices fell for the 53rd consecutive month in November, taking the decline past that of the Great Depression for the first time in the prolonged housing slump, according to Zillow.

Home prices have fallen 26 percent since their peak in 2006, exceeding the 25.9 percent drop registered in the five years between 1928 and 1933, the housing data company said in a report on Monday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70961E20110111?source=patrick.net#fixedpanelContainer

Hope and Change ...... don't you ever waver on that, Yes We Can!

You Got That !

The Mad Crapper
01-13-2011, 08:27 AM
Jobless Claims Make Big Spike To 445K
Joe Weisenthal | Jan. 13, 2011, 8:30 AM | 595 | 15
A A A
x Email ArticleFrom To Email Sent!You have successfully emailed the post.
inShare.3 The number: Way worse than expectations of 415k, and a big jump last week, and a big jump from that sub-400K that we got right at the end of 200.

You know, this is a volatile number, yada yada. There's also seasonality/weather issues (possibly).

Stocks are slipping a little bit.

Not sure how much stock to put in this: MarketWatch cites a "government official" who cites the jump to paperwork issues.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-jobless-claims-december-13-2011-1#ixzz1AwAxLwbt

The Mad Crapper
01-18-2011, 08:29 AM
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_3cib3fK139M/TTVWl1kubYI/AAAAAAAAGRs/ynA8S_hEP_A/s400/Gas+Station+01.jpg