PDA

View Full Version : Economics First-time jobless claims rise unexpectedly


petegz28
02-04-2010, 08:11 AM
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of newly laid-off workers filing initial claims for jobless benefits rose unexpectedly last week, evidence that layoffs are continuing and jobs remain scarce.

The rise is the fourth in the past five weeks. Most economists hoped that claims would resume a downward trend that was evident in the fall and early winter.

The Labor Department said Thursday that new claims for unemployment insurance rose by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 480,000. Wall Street economists had expected a drop to 460,000, according to Thomson Reuters.

The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, rose for the third straight week to 468,750.

The figure is the highest in the past two months. Initial claims dropped sharply in late December, raising hopes among economists that layoffs were nearing an end and the economy would soon start generating net gains in jobs.

The figures come a day before the Labor Department is scheduled to report the January employment figures, which are expected to show a tiny gain in jobs. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 10.1 percent.

The number of people continuing to claim benefits was unchanged at 4.6 million. That data lags initial claims by a week.

But the so-called continuing claims do not include millions of people who have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits typically provided by states, and are receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal government.

More than 5.8 million people were receiving extended benefits in the week ended Jan. 16, the latest data available, up from about 5.6 million the previous week. The extended benefit data isn't seasonally adjusted and is volatile from week to week.

Still, the increasing number of people claiming extended unemployment insurance indicates hiring hasn't picked up. That leaves people out of work for longer and longer periods of time.

Some employers are continuing to cut jobs. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said Wednesday that it will eliminate 300 administrative jobs at its headquarters. The company has cut almost 14,000 jobs in the past 13 months, including 11,200 positions at its Sam's Club stores.

Sony Pictures Entertainment Inc., a unit of Japan's Sony Corp., said Tuesday it is laying off 450 people and eliminating 100 open positions.

Among the states, Oregon reported the largest increase in claims, with 4,336. Puerto Rico and Hawaii also reported increases. The state data lags initial claims by one week.

California reported the largest drop in claims, a decline of 22,674. Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia and Missouri also reported decreases.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Firsttime-jobless-claims-rise-apf-106391038.html?x=0&.v=8

petegz28
02-04-2010, 08:12 AM
I can't see how week after week we see that jobless claims rose "unexpectedly". LMAO somone must really have their head in the sand.

The Mad Crapper
02-04-2010, 08:25 AM
Why is it always "unexpectedly"? I don't get that.

petegz28
02-04-2010, 08:28 AM
Why is it always "unexpectedly"? I don't get that.

Because in general I think most market economists are disconnected from Main St.

bkkcoh
02-04-2010, 09:54 AM
Why is it always "unexpectedly"? I don't get that.

Because the recession is over and there should be a gain of jobs. Isn't that what the news is about, the recession is over and the recover is very strong with a GDP growth rate of 5.0+%

I can't see how week after week we see that jobless claims rose "unexpectedly". LMAO somone must really have their head in the sand.
MSM?

petegz28
02-04-2010, 10:01 AM
Because the recession is over and there should be a gain of jobs. Isn't that what the news is about, the recession is over and the recover is very strong with a GDP growth rate of 5.0+%


MSM?

No, not really MSM. More like Wall St. Media. I have come over the years to be very sceptic of Wall St. economists. I heard one yesterday talking about a jobs gain of +65k for tomorrow. The ones to listen to are the ones that are rightly calling this a "jobless recovery". And what that means is the stock market goes up for no real reason.

KC native
02-04-2010, 10:06 AM
No, not really MSM. More like Wall St. Media. I have come over the years to be very sceptic of Wall St. economists. I heard one yesterday talking about a jobs gain of +65k for tomorrow. The ones to listen to are the ones that are rightly calling this a "jobless recovery". And what that means is the stock market goes up for no real reason.

The thing I've learned with Wall St economists is to pay attention to buy side vs sell side. Stay away from sell side economists and most analysts. Sell side is supposed to talk their book and they always have an upbeat view. Sell side analysts usually do great work on industry structure and how firms actually make money in that space but their predictions are overly rosy and always biased to the upside.

As an added note, stay away from just about anything Abby Joseph Cohen says (GS economist). She hasn't seen a market that she doesn't like in a looooooonnnnnng time.

petegz28
02-04-2010, 10:08 AM
The thing I've learned with Wall St economists is to pay attention to buy side vs sell side. Stay away from sell side economists and most analysts. Sell side is supposed to talk their book and they always have an upbeat view. Sell side analysts usually do great work on industry structure and how firms actually make money in that space but their predictions are overly rosy and always biased to the upside.

As an added note, stay away from just about anything Abby Joseph Cohen says (GS economist). She hasn't seen a market that she doesn't like in a looooooonnnnnng time.

I can't stand her. When you say "sell side" do you mean people who are always telling everyone to buy stocks? I guess you confused me with saying Sell Siders have an overly rosy view?

KC native
02-04-2010, 10:11 AM
I can't stand her. When you say "sell side" do you mean people who are always telling everyone to buy stocks? I guess you confused me with saying Sell Siders have an overly rosy view?

From investopediat

The main difference between these two types of analysts is the type of firm that employs them and the people to whom they make recommendations.

A sell-side analyst works for a brokerage or firm that manages individual accounts and makes recommendations to the clients of the firm. Sell-side analysts are those who issue the often-heard recommendations of "strong buy", "outperform", "neutral" or "sell". These recommendations help clients make decisions to buy and/or sell certain stocks. This is beneficial for the brokerage because every time a client makes a decision to trade stock, the brokerage gets a commission on the transactions.

This is not to say that sell-side analysts recommend or change their opinion on a stock just to create transactions. However, it is important to realize that these analysts are paid by and ultimately answer to the brokerage, not the clients. Furthermore, the recommendations of a sell-side analyst are called "blanket recommendations" because they're not directed at any one client, but rather at the general mass of the firm's clients. These recommendations are inherently broad and, as a result, they may be inappropriate for certain investment strategies. When you are considering a sell-side recommendation, it's important to determine whether the recommendation suits your individual investment style.

A buy-side analyst usually works for a pension fund or mutual fund company. These individuals perform research and make recommendations to the money managers of the fund that employs them. Buy-side analysts will determine how promising an investment seems and how well it coincides with the fund's investment strategy; they'll base their recommendations on this evidence. These recommendations, made exclusively for the benefit of the fund that pays for them, are not available to anyone outside the fund. If a fund employs a good analyst, it does not want competing funds to have access to the same advice. A buy-side analyst's success or talent is gauged by the number of profitable recommendations he or she makes to the fund.

KC native
02-04-2010, 10:13 AM
It's hard to get a hold of buy side research but it occasionally makes it way onto the net. The best thing to do is listen to their interviews and the fund's Portfolio Manager's comments (conference calls, interviews, etc). Zero Hedge is good for this type of stuff.

petegz28
02-04-2010, 10:17 AM
From investopediat

Ok, that is what I thought. I have always been leary of analyst upgrades\downgrades. I have always had the cynical opinion that then a firm wants to aquire a stock for their own book they put out a Sell on the stock. And vice-versa.

This is why I support the Volcker Rule. Firms like GS piss me off with their private trading desks. They get to see what their retail customers are doing and act on it. The average Trader\Investor has no such luxury. IMO, it is one step short of being able to read the orders on a Specialist's book. Something I am not a huge fan of as well. I don't like the fact that a Firm can put an order to sell 100k of XYZ at $50 and the Specialist goes to work manipulating the stock price to satisfy that particular customer.

InChiefsHell
02-04-2010, 10:20 AM
What we need right now is ANOTHER stimulus package...yeah...that's the ticket!

Bwana
02-04-2010, 11:04 AM
Mooooooore Hope And Change, thanks Barry, you're kicking ass.

The Mad Crapper
02-04-2010, 12:16 PM
http://thepeoplescube.com/images/Obama_Coin_ExactChange_160.gif