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View Full Version : Economics Will the DOW drop under 10,000 today?


The Mad Crapper
02-04-2010, 08:32 AM
It's down 192 since the opening bell an hour ago---

It's at 10,077

petegz28
02-04-2010, 08:36 AM
Probably not today. If we get a bad print tomorrow on the Unemployment numbers we will easily.

The Mad Crapper
02-04-2010, 08:38 AM
Probably not today. If we get a bad print tomorrow on the Unemployment numbers we will easily.

Yeah, I think it's inevitable, tomorrow at the latest.

Chief Henry
02-04-2010, 08:39 AM
Change we can believe is on its way.

bevischief
02-04-2010, 08:39 AM
Yes.

petegz28
02-04-2010, 08:44 AM
Yeah, I think it's inevitable, tomorrow at the latest.

Everyone is pulling out today ahead of tomorrow's numbers. So the selloff we are seeing today is more people getting out of the way ahead of the number as opposed to selling the market. Though this morning's unemployment number has added to what otherwise might have been a rather tight day.

BucEyedPea
02-04-2010, 08:59 AM
Predictions I am getting is that there's going to be a stock market crash. Let's wait and see.

HonestChieffan
02-04-2010, 09:21 AM
It wont amount to a lot, its gonna drop, its gonna go back up. It will drop faster than it will recover but it will recover.

Beating the drums of doom seems to be a sport among people.

If you think its gonna recover and you have some cash it could be a heck of an opportunity.

If you think the end is near, go on a buying spree get alot of cool stuff, charge it all, get some more credit cards, new car at 0 down 0 percent cause you wont ever have to pay for it. At least the end time will be a happy one for you.

fan4ever
02-04-2010, 09:21 AM
Predictions I am getting is that there's going to be a stock market crash. Let's wait and see.

I've always thought there was another shoe to fall.

On another point, I've heard government cheese is actually pretty good.

KC native
02-04-2010, 09:21 AM
Again the Dow is a horrible index to watch. 1080 on the S&P has been the most recent support since it has been breached all the technical stuff I've read (which hasn't been too much) says the S&P will prolly run down to 1038 where it will bounce with a possible run right back to 1200.

On fundamental terms, all of the indices are extremely overvalued. Bond spreads are back to 2007 levels which is ridiculous and we still haven't fixed any of the issues that led to this mess.

fan4ever
02-04-2010, 09:23 AM
It wont amount to a lot, its gonna drop, its gonna go back up. It will drop faster than it will recover but it will recover.

Beating the drums of doom seems to be a sport among people.

If you think its gonna recover and you have some cash it could be a heck of an opportunity.

If you think the end is near, go on a buying spree get alot of cool stuff, charge it all, get some more credit cards, new car at 0 down 0 percent cause you wont ever have to pay for it. At least the end time will be a happy one for you.

Unfortunately many people with this mind set and will only add to the problems...but it's all about them.

There are so many perfect storm conditions just waiting out there I don't know how we won't have another major drop before we crawl out of this hell hole.

petegz28
02-04-2010, 09:24 AM
Again the Dow is a horrible index to watch. 1080 on the S&P has been the most recent support since it has been breached all the technical stuff I've read (which hasn't been too much) says the S&P will prolly run down to 1038 where it will bounce with a possible run right back to 1200.

On fundamental terms, all of the indices are extremely overvalued. Bond spreads are back to 2007 levels which is ridiculous and we still haven't fixed any of the issues that led to this mess.

My charts are saying we can run down to around 1040 as well. If we break below that we could be headed for another bear market.

fan4ever
02-04-2010, 09:24 AM
Again the Dow is a horrible index to watch. 1080 on the S&P has been the most recent support since it has been breached all the technical stuff I've read (which hasn't been too much) says the S&P will prolly run down to 1038 where it will bounce with a possible run right back to 1200.

On fundamental terms, all of the indices are extremely overvalued. Bond spreads are back to 2007 levels which is ridiculous and we still haven't fixed any of the issues that led to this mess.

Agree with you . . . maybe for the first time ever :D

KC native
02-04-2010, 09:27 AM
My charts are saying we can run down to around 1040 as well. If we break below that we could be headed for another bear market.

IMO we're still in a bear market and this recent rally has just been the mother of all bear market rallies (not really unprecendented but a 60% rally is impressive).

Yea, if we breach support at 1040 then I think we'll get back down to around 900 or so (which would make the market fairly valued).

petegz28
02-04-2010, 09:27 AM
BTW, to add to what KC Native said, the only reason to watch the Dow is, there isn't one. Right now the Dow is down 189 pts. The SP 500 is down 22.85. That is the equivalent of 228 Dow points. I can't tell you how many times I have seen the Dow down by 10-20 but the SP 500 wa down over 5-6 (50-60 Dow points)

petegz28
02-04-2010, 09:29 AM
IMO we're still in a bear market and this recent rally has just been the mother of all bear market rallies (not really unprecendented but a 60% rally is impressive).

Yea, if we breach support at 1040 then I think we'll get back down to around 900 or so (which would make the market fairly valued).

If we get a decent print tomorrow and that means, imo, +25,000 jobs added then we may continue the upswing.

KC native
02-04-2010, 09:29 AM
BTW, to add to what KC Native said, the only reason to watch the Dow is, there isn't one. Right now the Dow is down 189 pts. The SP 500 is down 22.85. That is the equivalent of 228 Down points. I can't tell you how many times I have seen the Dow down by 10-20 but the SP 500 wa down over 5-6 (50-60 Dow points)

Yes and I actually care less about the actual points that the indices go up and down than I do the percentage. The % move gives you the most info because an 100 point move is vastly different when the S&P is at 1200 vs being at 900.

petegz28
02-04-2010, 09:31 AM
Also I saw a blurb the other day that the market peaked in January in a Fibonacci basis (5th wave in the Elliot Wave series), which would indiciate we are due for a correction. Judging by my indicators we are already into the first wave of what hopefully will only be a 3 wave correction.

KC native
02-04-2010, 09:31 AM
If we get a decent print tomorrow and that means, imo, +25,000 jobs added then we may continue the upswing.

I think so too. I highly doubt we see that big of a surprise though. My guess is that it will be within the margin of error so we really won't know whether any jobs were lost or gained so the market will muddle around 1040 for a few days and then find some reason to rocket back to 1200.

petegz28
02-04-2010, 09:32 AM
Yes and I actually care less about the actual points that the indices go up and down than I do the percentage. The % move gives you the most info because an 100 point move is vastly different when the S&P is at 1200 vs being at 900.

Well, the arguing logic from a Trader's standpoint on that is "a point is a point is a point".

KC native
02-04-2010, 09:33 AM
Well, the arguing logic from a Trader's standpoint on that is "a point is a point is a point".

Good point. The entry point and time frame for trades/investments matters a lot and is overlooked by many who read financial discussions.

petegz28
02-04-2010, 09:43 AM
Well, as the market continues to fall I am starting to see a lot of block trades on the sell side for the SPY.

KC native
02-04-2010, 09:50 AM
Well, as the market continues to fall I am starting to see a lot of block trades on the sell side for the SPY.

Not surprising. The down days recently have had much higher volume than the up days. I'm not following it to closely right now because I have absolutely no desire to purchase anything until we get back down to around 900-950

petegz28
02-04-2010, 09:55 AM
Not surprising. The down days recently have had much higher volume than the up days. I'm not following it to closely right now because I have absolutely no desire to purchase anything until we get back down to around 900-950

Might be a while. I am getting a break to the downside on my linear regression curve (breaking below the moving average) on a weekly chart, which has not happened since the march lows. So this is the first time in this run up that it has happened. As well as the MACD is crossing to the downside and the Slow Stochs are making new lows but are not in oversold territory yet.

Calcountry
02-04-2010, 01:00 PM
How can you still be in this market? Rumor has Moody's considering downgrading the US Treasury's credit rating.

Maybe Obama can go do a photo op in Vegas, and put a couple Billion dollars on Black for the US Taxpayer. If he loses, Vegas gets a stimulus, if he hits, he can use the proceeds for more Stimulus programs.

KC native
02-04-2010, 01:02 PM
Might be a while. I am getting a break to the downside on my linear regression curve (breaking below the moving average) on a weekly chart, which has not happened since the march lows. So this is the first time in this run up that it has happened. As well as the MACD is crossing to the downside and the Slow Stochs are making new lows but are not in oversold territory yet.

Yup and I'm prepared for that. I don't think it will get down there until June-ish after those Q2 results start to come in.

petegz28
02-04-2010, 02:00 PM
Wow, 9999.76 is where it closed.

Amnorix
02-04-2010, 02:01 PM
Change we can believe is on its way.

Aren't we up like 30% since Bush left office or something? Just sayin'.

petegz28
02-04-2010, 02:04 PM
well, back up to 10002.26

KC native
02-04-2010, 02:05 PM
Wow, 9999.76 is where it closed.

eh, you gotta wait 15 minutes or so before it finishes ticking off. Those end of day trades come in fast and furious. I don't know how many people that I had to deal with that would get pissed because on option expiration day they thought they were in the money only to log in on monday and see that their options expired worthless.

The Mad Crapper
02-04-2010, 02:06 PM
http://thepeoplescube.com/images/Obama_Coin_ExactChange_160.gif

thecoffeeguy
02-04-2010, 02:44 PM
2 points shy of being under 10,000.

petegz28
02-04-2010, 02:49 PM
eh, you gotta wait 15 minutes or so before it finishes ticking off. Those end of day trades come in fast and furious. I don't know how many people that I had to deal with that would get pissed because on option expiration day they thought they were in the money only to log in on monday and see that their options expired worthless.

Yea, I know. I should have waited.

Bootlegged
02-04-2010, 03:05 PM
direct result over anti-business climate (taxes), overspending by us and our European idols.

Barack Hussein Obama. mmm mm mmm. Barack Hussein Obama.

He's not dumb, so why would he be pursuing these policies? Hmmm.. hmmm hmmm... Barack Hussein Obama.

The Mad Crapper
02-04-2010, 06:33 PM
direct result over anti-business climate (taxes), overspending by us and our European idols.

Barack Hussein Obama. mmm mm mmm. Barack Hussein Obama.

He's not dumb, so why would he be pursuing these policies? Hmmm.. hmmm hmmm... Barack Hussein Obama.

http://thepeoplescube.com/images/Obama_Coin_ExactChange_160.gif

Mmmmmmm mmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmm.

ROFL

Saul Good
02-04-2010, 06:50 PM
Aren't we up like 30% since Bush left office or something? Just sayin'.

A year after the WTC attack, the market bottomed out at 7,850. It was at 12,500 when the Democrats won their elections in 2006. Now we're down almost exactly 20% in the three years since then, the market is probably overvalued, and we're about to make the numbers meaningless with inflation.

googlegoogle
02-05-2010, 01:17 AM
Usa =greece.