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View Full Version : Obama Things looking bleak for those who support HC Takeover. Good News for the country.


HonestChieffan
03-15-2010, 02:30 PM
Swing Districts Oppose Health Reform
Sobering poll news for 35 key House members...By HEATHER R. HIGGINS AND KELLYANNE E. CONWAY
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704416904575121541779736742.html

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she plans to bring health-care reform to a vote this week. Democratic leaders cite national polls that show support for individual provisions of the bill as a reason to pass this reform. Yet vulnerable politicians should be warned: Responses to questions about individual benefits, particularly when removed from a cost context, are different from those on the whole bill.

Voters in key congressional districts are clear in their opposition to what they have seen, read and heard on health-care reform. That's one of the findings of a survey that will be released today by the Polling Company on behalf of Independent Women's Voice. The survey consisted of 1,200 registered voters in 35 districts represented by members who could determine the outcome of the health-care debate. Twenty of those members voted for the House bill in November but now may be reconsidering. Fifteen voted against the bill but are under tremendous pressure to change their vote.

The survey shows astonishing intensity and sharp opposition to reform, far more than national polls reflect. For 82% of those surveyed, the heath-care bill is either the top or one of the top three issues for deciding whom to support for Congress next November. (That number goes to 88% among independent women.) Sixty percent want Congress to start from scratch on a bipartisan health-care reform proposal or stop working on it this year. Majorities say the legislation will make them and their loved ones (53%), the economy (54%) and the U.S. health-care system (55%) worse off—quite the trifecta.

Seven in 10 would vote against a House member who votes for the Senate health-care bill with its special interest provisions. That includes 45% of self-identified Democrats, 72% of independents and 88% of Republicans. Three in four disagree that the federal government should mandate that everyone buy a government-approved insurance plan (64% strongly so), and 81% say any reform should focus first on reducing costs. Three quarters agree that Americans have the right to choose not to participate in any health-care system or plan without a penalty or fine.




That translates into specific concerns with the Senate legislation—and none of these objections would be addressed by the proposed fixes. Over 70%—indeed in several districts over 80%—of respondents, across party lines, said that the following information made them less supportive: the bill mandates that individuals purchase insurance or face penalties; it cuts Medicare Advantage; it will force potentially millions to lose existing coverage; it will cost an estimated $2.3 trillion over its first 10 years; and it will grant unprecedented new powers to the Health and Human Services secretary.

Should members from these districts and those like them be concerned? Yes. Walking the Democratic line now means walking the plank. Sixty percent of the voters surveyed will vote for a candidate who opposes the current legislation and wants to start over.

What about passing the Senate bill and then fixing problems via reconciliation, a process that could allow Congress to pass a second health-care bill with a simple Senate majority? Sixty-three percent (50% strongly) think reconciliation is at best a political promise and their congressman shouldn't vote for the Senate bill if he doesn't agree with it as written.

But the survey does provide a little good news for wavering Democrats. A congressman can buy himself a little grace if he had previously voted for health-care reform but now votes against it. Forty-nine percent of voters will feel more supportive of that member if he does so, 40% less supportive. More dramatically, 58% of voters say they will be more supportive of their congressman's re-election if he votes against the bill a second time. However, for those members who voted against it in November and vote yes this time, 61% of voters say they will be less likely to support their re-election.

Over a third of respondents say they will actively work against a candidate who votes the wrong way or for the candidate who votes the right way. Perhaps that's because dramatic pluralities of both sexes—young people, seniors and independents, regardless of whether John McCain or Barack Obama carried the district in 2008—say that if the legislation doesn't pass they will be relieved.

These are the constituents of the members whose votes will matter most this week. Perhaps, if this republic is still the people's, those members should heed those they claim to represent.

Ms. Higgins runs Independent Women's Voice. Ms. Conway is president and CEO of the Polling Company, inc./WomanTrend. Poll results will be available after 11 a.m. Monday at www.iwvoice.org.

orange
03-15-2010, 02:56 PM
The Game Is Changed! (patent pending)

Chief Henry
03-15-2010, 02:59 PM
Swing Districts Oppose Health Reform
Sobering poll news for 35 key House members...By HEATHER R. HIGGINS AND KELLYANNE E. CONWAY
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704416904575121541779736742.html

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she plans to bring health-care reform to a vote this week. Democratic leaders cite national polls that show support for individual provisions of the bill as a reason to pass this reform. Yet vulnerable politicians should be warned: Responses to questions about individual benefits, particularly when removed from a cost context, are different from those on the whole bill.

Voters in key congressional districts are clear in their opposition to what they have seen, read and heard on health-care reform. That's one of the findings of a survey that will be released today by the Polling Company on behalf of Independent Women's Voice. The survey consisted of 1,200 registered voters in 35 districts represented by members who could determine the outcome of the health-care debate. Twenty of those members voted for the House bill in November but now may be reconsidering. Fifteen voted against the bill but are under tremendous pressure to change their vote.

The survey shows astonishing intensity and sharp opposition to reform, far more than national polls reflect. For 82% of those surveyed, the heath-care bill is either the top or one of the top three issues for deciding whom to support for Congress next November. (That number goes to 88% among independent women.) Sixty percent want Congress to start from scratch on a bipartisan health-care reform proposal or stop working on it this year. Majorities say the legislation will make them and their loved ones (53%), the economy (54%) and the U.S. health-care system (55%) worse off—quite the trifecta.

Seven in 10 would vote against a House member who votes for the Senate health-care bill with its special interest provisions. That includes 45% of self-identified Democrats, 72% of independents and 88% of Republicans. Three in four disagree that the federal government should mandate that everyone buy a government-approved insurance plan (64% strongly so), and 81% say any reform should focus first on reducing costs. Three quarters agree that Americans have the right to choose not to participate in any health-care system or plan without a penalty or fine.



That translates into specific concerns with the Senate legislation—and none of these objections would be addressed by the proposed fixes. Over 70%—indeed in several districts over 80%—of respondents, across party lines, said that the following information made them less supportive: the bill mandates that individuals purchase insurance or face penalties; it cuts Medicare Advantage; it will force potentially millions to lose existing coverage; it will cost an estimated $2.3 trillion over its first 10 years; and it will grant unprecedented new powers to the Health and Human Services secretary.

Should members from these districts and those like them be concerned? Yes. Walking the Democratic line now means walking the plank. Sixty percent of the voters surveyed will vote for a candidate who opposes the current legislation and wants to start over.

What about passing the Senate bill and then fixing problems via reconciliation, a process that could allow Congress to pass a second health-care bill with a simple Senate majority? Sixty-three percent (50% strongly) think reconciliation is at best a political promise and their congressman shouldn't vote for the Senate bill if he doesn't agree with it as written.

But the survey does provide a little good news for wavering Democrats. A congressman can buy himself a little grace if he had previously voted for health-care reform but now votes against it. Forty-nine percent of voters will feel more supportive of that member if he does so, 40% less supportive. More dramatically, 58% of voters say they will be more supportive of their congressman's re-election if he votes against the bill a second time. However, for those members who voted against it in November and vote yes this time, 61% of voters say they will be less likely to support their re-election.

Over a third of respondents say they will actively work against a candidate who votes the wrong way or for the candidate who votes the right way. Perhaps that's because dramatic pluralities of both sexes—young people, seniors and independents, regardless of whether John McCain or Barack Obama carried the district in 2008—say that if the legislation doesn't pass they will be relieved.

These are the constituents of the members whose votes will matter most this week. Perhaps, if this republic is still the people's, those members should heed those they claim to represent.

Ms. Higgins runs Independent Women's Voice. Ms. Conway is president and CEO of the Polling Company, inc./WomanTrend. Poll results will be available after 11 a.m. Monday at www.iwvoice.org.

7 in 10 and 72% of independants in those districts would vote against the congressman which votes for the the H-C bill. The tea leaves are being read at this moment by the congressman in those districts.

The Mad Crapper
03-16-2010, 09:36 AM
Politically, Millennials were among Barack Obama's strongest supporters in 2008, backing him for president by more than a two-to-one ratio (66% to 32%).

fully 37% of 18- to 29-year-olds are unemployed or out of the workforce, the highest share among this age group in more than three decades.

Ha ha! Suckers!

CoMoChief
03-16-2010, 09:43 AM
Has to be hard for a dem that ACTUALLY wants to pass this, knowing that it's political suicide at this point.

Mr. Flopnuts
03-16-2010, 10:16 AM
Democrats are alienating their own voters with this pathetic, corporate driven attempt at health care. They successfully found a way to piss everyone off.

oldandslow
03-16-2010, 10:23 AM
These things swing both ways guys...You'all will take power in 2010 in at least one of the houses, but BO will hold on to the presidency in 2012, cause I ain't seeing anyone from your side that can beat him. Repubs may or may not take the presdency in 2016, but lots of water will flow under the bridge between now and then.

Mr. Flopnuts
03-16-2010, 10:25 AM
These things swing both ways guys...You'all will take power in 2010 in at least one of the houses, but BO will hold on to the presidency in 2012, cause I ain't seeing anyone from your side that can beat him. Repubs may or may not take the presdency in 2016, but lots of water will flow under the bridge between now and then.

Whoa. I'm not on any political side. They're both crooked as fuck AFAIC. I'm just saying that Democrats have found a way to completely screw up this health care bill. You're an educated, experienced individual O&S, I'll bet you agree.

Brock
03-16-2010, 10:25 AM
BO will hold on to the presidency in 2012, cause I ain't seeing anyone from your side that can beat him.

I think you underestimate the buyer's remorse going on right now.

Mr. Flopnuts
03-16-2010, 10:27 AM
I think you underestimate the buyer's remorse going on right now.

There is no way in fuck I'm voting for him again. I don't care if they roll out Mickey Mouse against him. I've never felt so foolish over a decision I've made in my life. That may be overkill, but not by much.

oldandslow
03-16-2010, 10:28 AM
Don't get me wrong, Brock...I will not be voting for him again. Still, lots can happen between now and 2012.

Oh, and Floppy. You are 100% correct concerning HC bill.

Mr. Flopnuts
03-16-2010, 10:30 AM
Don't get me wrong, Brock...I will not be voting for him again. Still, lots can happen between now and 2012.

Oh, and Floppy. You are 100% correct concerning HC bill.

I wanted it to work. God, how I wanted it to work. But just like I knew Barrack was a liar the second he raised the cigarette taxes, I also knew he was full of shit the second he took the single payer option off the table.

mlyonsd
03-16-2010, 10:32 AM
As long as guys like Chris Matthews still get a tingle up their leg Obama will win in 2012. That and like oldandslow said, there isn't a republican right now that can beat him.

BIG_DADDY
03-16-2010, 10:40 AM
As long as guys like Chris Matthews still get a tingle up their leg Obama will win in 2012. That and like oldandslow said, there isn't a republican right now that can beat him.

ROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFL

WOW, that's all I can say about that. I think Mickey Fuggin Mouse could run and win against this clown and and take it in 2012. His shit hasn't even hit the fan yet. I love Marc Fabers take on the state of our country and how this ass clown pushed us past the point of no return.

mlyonsd
03-16-2010, 10:44 AM
ROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFL

WOW, that's all I can say about that. I think Mickey Fuggin Mouse could run and win against this clown and and take it in 2012. His shit hasn't even hit the fan yet. I love Marc Fabers take on the state of our country and how this ass clown pushed us past the point of no return.

Aren't you the one that underestimated Obama in the first place and lost a bet? :)

PhillyChiefFan
03-16-2010, 10:49 AM
I don't think he will ever live down the blatant disregard for the american people's will towards this.

Is there really language that in effect the government will take over student loans completely? So the govn't can dictate who gets loans and who doesn't?

BIG_DADDY
03-16-2010, 10:50 AM
These things swing both ways guys...You'all will take power in 2010 in at least one of the houses, but BO will hold on to the presidency in 2012, cause I ain't seeing anyone from your side that can beat him. Repubs may or may not take the presdency in 2016, but lots of water will flow under the bridge between now and then.

You need to get off the meds dog. I don't mean to clown you but good god dude, even in the People's Republic of California people are bitching all over the place and they haven't shut down the Nummi plant yet or even scratched the surface of all the state jobs that absolutely have to be cut. Unemployment is going to shoot the moon and people are constantly leaving here in the 7th largest economy in the world.

There is no loaning going on for mortgages or for small business in spite of the massive bailout funded by tax payers which lets you know what the bankers think of our enviroment. BofA came out yesterday and wants it's investors to start getting out of dollar denominated currency. I could go on all day but I think your take is WAY, WAY, WAY off the mark.

fan4ever
03-16-2010, 10:50 AM
I think you underestimate the buyer's remorse going on right now.

I find it amazing anyone thinks Obama has a lock on 2012...remarkable level of denial.

oldandslow
03-16-2010, 10:52 AM
ROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFL

WOW, that's all I can say about that. I think Mickey Fuggin Mouse could run and win against this clown and and take it in 2012. His shit hasn't even hit the fan yet. I love Marc Fabers take on the state of our country and how this ass clown pushed us past the point of no return.

Underestimating your enemy is how wars are lost...folks might need to read the "art of war"

oldandslow
03-16-2010, 10:53 AM
You need to get off the meds dog. I don't mean to clown you but good god dude, even in the People's Republic of California people are bitching all over the place and they haven't shut down the Nummi plant yet or even scratched the surface of all the state jobs that absolutely have to be cut. Unemployment is going to shoot the moon and people are constantly leaving here in the 7th largest economy in the world.

There is no loaning going on for mortgages or for small business in spite of the massive bailout funded by tax payers which lets you know what the bankers think of our enviroment. BofA came out yesterday and wants it's investors to start getting out of dollar denominated currency. I could go on all day but I think your take is WAY, WAY, WAY off the mark.

Perhaps...but I tend to remember that I said BO would win the last election and you took umbrage to that as well.

BIG_DADDY
03-16-2010, 10:53 AM
Underestimating your enemy is how wars are lost...folks might need to read the "art of war"

That's your response to my post? I'm just going to move on.

Chief Faithful
03-16-2010, 10:55 AM
Is there really language that in effect the government will take over student loans completely? So the govn't can dictate who gets loans and who doesn't?
That is the rumor, but Congress won't get to see the language until one hour before the vote.

oldandslow
03-16-2010, 10:57 AM
That's your response to my post? I'm just going to move on.

What do you want me to say. You underestimated BO's political machine once, and you are doing it again.

Incumbency has a huge advantage in Prez elections. Very few are booted at the end of one term (although it can happen). Bill Clinton won a second term and BO will follow that pattern after the midterms.

PhillyChiefFan
03-16-2010, 10:58 AM
That is the rumor, but Congress won't get to see the language until one hour before the vote.

Unreal.

Will the SCOTUS overturn this? Can they?

At least they don't have to worry about term limits and can MAYBE do the right thing, seeing as Congress won't.

Brainiac
03-16-2010, 11:06 AM
What do you want me to say. You underestimated BO's political machine once, and you are doing it again.

Incumbency has a huge advantage in Prez elections. Very few are booted at the end of one term (although it can happen). Bill Clinton won a second term and BO will follow that pattern after the midterms.
If you're going to compare Obama to past Democrats, Jimmy Carter is a much better comparison. His Presidency was so bad that Teddy Kennedy almost succeeded in his attempt to get the Democrats to deny the nomination to the sitting President.

Maybe the Democrats should start looking for a candidate who has a chance to win in 2012.

orange
03-16-2010, 11:07 AM
That is the rumor, but Congress won't get to see the language until one hour before the vote.

Posted Sunday: http://budget.house.gov/doc-library/FY2010/03.15.2010_reconciliation2010.PDF

Why don't you guys give up this ridiculous "no one ever sees the bill" sound bite?

Brainiac
03-16-2010, 11:08 AM
The sad fact is that there remains a lot of people who are either uninformed or who are so hell-bent on class warfare that they'll support Obama or any Democrat who promises to stick it to the "rich" people.

That is why you can't count Obama out in 2012.

HonestChieffan
03-16-2010, 11:11 AM
Maybe the Democrats should start looking for a candidate who has a chance to win in 2012.

You can bet the farm that discussion is ongoing

Brainiac
03-16-2010, 11:12 AM
Why don't you guys give up this ridiculous "no one ever sees the bill" sound bite?
Maybe because the bill hasn't even been finalized yet?

HonestChieffan
03-16-2010, 11:15 AM
Maybe because the bill hasn't even been finalized yet?

Orange doesnt need the real bill, they have the pretend bills out there. The ones each house voted on...not the version Obama proposed, and not the one the conference committee did, and not the one they are planning to vote on. But hey, its a transperancy move to show what they have shown.

orange
03-16-2010, 11:19 AM
Orange doesnt need the real bill, they have the pretend bills out there. The ones each house voted on...not the version Obama proposed, and not the one the conference committee did, and not the one they are planning to vote on. But hey, its a transperancy move to show what they have shown.

This IS the actual bill, fool.

A BILL
To provide for reconciliation pursuant to section 202 of
the concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2010.
1 Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representa2
tives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,
3 SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.
4 This Act may be cited as the ‘‘Reconciliation Act of
5 2010’’.

The one they're going to vote on.

Yes, there may be changes - debate typically continues right up until the day they vote. Thus it has always been and will always be. The fact remains: the 2300+ page bill is right there for anyone who wants to read it.

p.s. Those changes will go online, too, and be readable even while the vote is being taken.

Mr. Flopnuts
03-16-2010, 11:29 AM
LMAO This place would be nothing without the "agendaists".

go bowe
03-16-2010, 01:49 PM
Democrats are alienating their own voters with this pathetic, corporate driven attempt at health care. They successfully found a way to piss everyone off.hey, a success is a success...

HonestChieffan
03-16-2010, 01:54 PM
This IS the actual bill, fool.

A BILL
To provide for reconciliation pursuant to section 202 of
the concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2010.
1 Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representa2
tives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,
3 SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.
4 This Act may be cited as the ‘‘Reconciliation Act of
5 2010’’.

The one they're going to vote on.

Yes, there may be changes - debate typically continues right up until the day they vote. Thus it has always been and will always be. The fact remains: the 2300+ page bill is right there for anyone who wants to read it.

p.s. Those changes will go online, too, and be readable even while the vote is being taken.

Last man standing must be your goal. You will have all the cool Obama plates and signs and everything.

go bowe
03-16-2010, 01:57 PM
Last man standing must be your goal. You will have all the cool Obama plates and signs and everything.i have enough plates, but i treasure my obama-biden pin...

thecoffeeguy
03-16-2010, 02:42 PM
I think you underestimate the buyer's remorse going on right now.

No kidding. My work environment is nothing but Democrats. I can honestly say, I have not talked to one of these Dems who is happy for voting for Obama. The amount of buyers remorse is astounding.

Obama has managed to quickly piss off the majority of this country. You are completely ignorant if you dont see this.

I have never seen a more inept president and our country so angry.

bobbymitch
03-17-2010, 09:33 AM
He said . . she said; blah blah blah.

If the administration is so cock sure that this will lower health insurance premiums, let's do this - Have the all the democrats in congress and the DNC sign a promissory note. If premiums go up, for the exact same plan, for individuals who already have health insurance, then they will pay them the difference. On the other hand if premiums go down, we pay them the difference.

I hear all the talk about Cadillac plans - exactly what is one? Never see any details on coverages, co-pays, deductibles, etc.

Why hasn't anyone proposed eliminating the FICA cap? All remuneration over the current cap ($106,800), the employee pays the entire 6.2%. Let the wall streeters make their millions. Think of the $$ coming in to fund SS and Medicare.

Brainiac
03-17-2010, 09:42 AM
He said . . she said; blah blah blah.

If the administration is so cock sure that this will lower health insurance premiums, let's do this - Have the all the democrats in congress and the DNC sign a promissory note. If premiums go up, for the exact same plan, for individuals who already have health insurance, then they will pay them the difference. On the other hand if premiums go down, we pay them the difference.

I hear all the talk about Cadillac plans - exactly what is one? Never see any details on coverages, co-pays, deductibles, etc.

Why hasn't anyone proposed eliminating the FICA cap? All remuneration over the current cap ($106,800), the employee pays the entire 6.2%. Let the wall streeters make their millions. Think of the $$ coming in to fund SS and Medicare.
A Cadillac plan is any plan that already gives you good health care coverage.

Unless you're in a union. Then it's not a Cadillac plan.

The blatant bribes that are used to get this thing passed are outrageous.

patteeu
03-17-2010, 09:58 AM
What do you want me to say. You underestimated BO's political machine once, and you are doing it again.

Incumbency has a huge advantage in Prez elections. Very few are booted at the end of one term (although it can happen). Bill Clinton won a second term and BO will follow that pattern after the midterms.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but out of the past 8 presidents, only 4 of them have won re-election and those did so under generally favorable economic conditions.

Bush II - re-elected
Clinton - re-elected
Bush I - booted
Reagan - re-elected
Carter - booted
Ford - booted
Nixon - re-elected
LBJ - would have been booted

I'm not nearly as optimistic as Big Daddy on this issue as a lot can change in 3 years, but I think Obama's prospects are more dependent on what the economy is doing during that election cycle than on who he runs against. His era of being able to get by on pure style is over.

BTW, I'm not as optimistic as most conservatives about the dems losing one or both houses of Congress this year either. And I personally think they're better off forcing this health care bill through than failing to pass it at this point. Most importantly, they need to get past it and on to other more politically favorable issues. They've got dominant enough control over both houses right now that they could conceivably get that done IMO.