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View Full Version : KU KU 15.7% KSU 4.4% Baylor 10.4% TA&M 2.2% MU 1% Texas 0% OSU 0%


Ari Chi3fs
03-15-2010, 03:03 PM
Chance of winning the national title, according to 50,000 mock run-throughs of the 2010 NCAA tourney

http://predictionmachine.com/P...racketodds.aspx

The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats from the last 30 games (weighted slightly more towards recent games), to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.
See the most-likely Predictalated Bracket and Paul Bessire's Bracket Analysis.


Region Seed Team 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
Midwest 1 KU 100.0% 77.4% 57.7% 36.7% 24.4% 15.7%
Midwest 7 Ok St. 40.5% 16.2% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
West 2 KSU 100.0% 65.6% 42.9% 23.4% 10.4% 4.4%
East 10 MU 55.4% 28.1% 14.4% 6.3% 2.6% 1.0%
South 3 Baylor 78.1% 70.1% 61.0% 36.1% 20.1% 10.4%
South 5 TA&M 71.7% 59.3% 37.1% 15.4% 6.0% 2.2%
East 8 Texas 47.6% 10.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

sedated
03-15-2010, 03:19 PM
hard to believe Baylor has such good odds.

T-post Tom
03-15-2010, 03:20 PM
Not according to the KSU fan calling 810 a minute ago. According to him KSU's chances are MUCH better than KU's. ROFL

rageeumr
03-15-2010, 03:24 PM
East 10 MU 55.4% 28.1% 14.4% 6.3% 2.6% 1.0%

http://content7.flixster.com/question/36/97/55/3697557_std.jpg

So you're tellin' me there's a chance!

Mr. Flopnuts
03-15-2010, 03:27 PM
Your link isn't working.

HC_Chief
03-15-2010, 03:29 PM
Your link isn't working.

http://predictionmachine.com/Predictalator/Predictions/bracketodds.aspx

thanks for the link Ari.... interesting stuff :thumb:

Mr. Flopnuts
03-15-2010, 03:30 PM
http://predictionmachine.com/Predictalator/Predictions/bracketodds.aspx

thanks for the link Ari.... interesting stuff :thumb:

Sweet. Thanks.

CoMoChief
03-15-2010, 03:32 PM
hard to believe Baylor has such good odds.

Have you seen their POS region?

I wouldn't be surprised at all if they made the Elite 8

Mr. Flopnuts
03-15-2010, 03:33 PM
hard to believe Baylor has such good odds.

Seriously. Better than anyone but KU and Syracuse? Umm, was the developer of this site a Baylor alum?

Ari Chi3fs
03-15-2010, 03:41 PM
Seriously. Better than anyone but KU and Syracuse? Umm, was the developer of this site a Baylor alum?

That bracket is essentially a cake walk. Only Duke is the real threat, IMO.

HC_Chief
03-15-2010, 03:41 PM
Seriously. Better than anyone but KU and Syracuse? Umm, was the developer of this site a Baylor alum?

lol

"One of the keys to the Predictalator is its use of strength-of-schedule-adjusted numbers. Not only is it important to know what the players and teams have done, but against whom they have done it."

Due to SOS-adjustment Big XII teams will score higher this year. It is the strongest conference at the top.

HC_Chief
03-15-2010, 03:42 PM
That bracket is essentially a cake walk. Only Duke is the real threat, IMO.

I think you underestimate aTm and 'Nova.

JMO

Ari Chi3fs
03-15-2010, 03:45 PM
I think you underestimate aTm and 'Nova.

JMO

aTm is a well coached team, but Baylor has way more talent. Nova has lost something like 5 of last 7, not exactly a strength going into the big dance.

HC_Chief
03-15-2010, 03:54 PM
aTm is a well coached team, but Baylor has way more talent. Nova has lost something like 5 of last 7, not exactly a strength going into the big dance.

I agree, but Nova is also loaded and well-coached. That team can be dominant when it is on its game.

IMO aTm is Duke's worst nightmare: a well-coached team that scraps like muh'fuhs. They have size and solid guard play (I'm a big fan of Sloan).

aTm -v- Baylor is a very real possibility; I have 'Nova beating Baylor in a brutal game, then edging aTm with Scottie Reynolds carrying the team.

I would not be surprised to see Baylor or aTm win that bracket.

Mr. Plow
03-15-2010, 04:06 PM
#1 Seeds -

KU: 15.7%
Syracuse: 10.6%
Duke: 10.2%
UK: 8.0%

Guru
03-15-2010, 04:09 PM
#1 Seeds -

KU: 15.7%
Syracuse: 10.6%
Duke: 10.2%
UK: 8.0%And Baylor is 10.4? Damn

Farzin
03-15-2010, 04:19 PM
Not according to the KSU fan calling 810 a minute ago. According to him KSU's chances are MUCH better than KU's. ROFL

I was listening around 2:30, a fan called and said Ohio State is better than Kansas because supposedly 'No one is there to punch Kansas in the mouth, even though KU is playing well.'

Mr. Laz
03-15-2010, 04:21 PM
ncaa committee was so busy stuffing KU's region they didn't have anyone leftover to put against Baylor

kepp
03-15-2010, 04:22 PM
ncaa committee was so busy stuff KU's region they didn't have anyone leftover to put against Baylor

And the excuse wagon is gaining speed.

Mr. Laz
03-15-2010, 04:31 PM
And the excuse wagon is gaining speed.
dam straight

NCAA did pretty much everything within the guidelines to make it as difficult as possible for KU to make the NC game. The top #1, the top #2 and the top #3 in the same region. The 2 teams(OSU,Tenn) that beat KU in that region. Maryland a team that talent isn't quite there but is a problem matchup for KU if they get hot from outside. I'm shocked they didn't put Cornell in there too because of the scrap they showed against KU earlier this year.

They also made sure that KU and KSU couldn't meet in the NC game.

bastards :cuss:

HC_Chief
03-15-2010, 04:39 PM
And the excuse wagon is gaining speed.

Facetious, for sure, but excuses? Hardly.

It's common knowlege. Hell, look at the first sentence in virtually every sportwrite's comments re: Midwest bracket.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/tournament/2010/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=4996705

"Kansas has the toughest regional of any of the four No. 1 seeds and yet the Jayhawks were the overall No. 1 seed. Go figure. Kansas gets the Big Ten tournament champion (Ohio State) as a No. 2 seed; the Big East tournament finalist (Georgetown) at No. 3 and the co-ACC champion (Maryland) at No. 4. That puts some heavy company in the mix for Kansas. I didn't even mention Michigan State at No. 5. The Spartans were a runaway Big Ten title team at one point this season before hitting the skids. And don't forget Missouri Valley champion Northern Iowa at No. 9, too. This is a loaded bracket. "

Watch the ESPN Bracketology segments.... they were, to a man, asking how in the *#$@% KU ended up in a bracket like that when they are supposedly the #1 overall seed. Apparently being the "#1 overall seed" doesn't mean squat.

ChiTown
03-15-2010, 04:40 PM
dam straight

NCAA did pretty much everything within the guidelines to make it as difficult as possible for KU to make the NC game. The top #1, the top #2 and the top #3 in the same region. The 2 teams(OSU,Tenn) that beat KU in that region. Maryland a team that talent isn't quite there but is a problem matchup for KU if they get hot from outside. I'm shocked they didn't put Cornell in there too because of the scrap they showed against KU earlier this year.

They also made sure that KU and KSU couldn't meet in the NC game.

bastards :cuss:

You didn't make a move to your wallet soon enough. Not only do your officials like to be paid, but so does the committee. Get with it!

HC_Chief
03-15-2010, 04:40 PM
You didn't make a move to your wallet soon enough. Not only do your officials like to be paid, but so does the committee. Get with it!

:D
Funny

Mr. Laz
03-15-2010, 04:43 PM
You didn't make a move to your wallet soon enough. Not only do your officials like to be paid, but so does the committee. Get with it!

http://uppitywoman08.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/money-cat.jpg

BWillie
03-15-2010, 05:20 PM
Looks about right to me. This tournament is a crapshoot. That is why I want best of 5 game series w/ only 8 or 16 teams getting in. Which will never happen.

BWillie
03-15-2010, 05:21 PM
Kentucky has a 5% chance of losing to a #16 seed. ROFL

Bearcat
03-15-2010, 05:26 PM
Facetious, for sure, but excuses? Hardly.

It's common knowlege. Hell, look at the first sentence in virtually every sportwrite's comments re: Midwest bracket.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/tournament/2010/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=4996705

"Kansas has the toughest regional of any of the four No. 1 seeds and yet the Jayhawks were the overall No. 1 seed. Go figure. Kansas gets the Big Ten tournament champion (Ohio State) as a No. 2 seed; the Big East tournament finalist (Georgetown) at No. 3 and the co-ACC champion (Maryland) at No. 4. That puts some heavy company in the mix for Kansas. I didn't even mention Michigan State at No. 5. The Spartans were a runaway Big Ten title team at one point this season before hitting the skids. And don't forget Missouri Valley champion Northern Iowa at No. 9, too. This is a loaded bracket. "

Watch the ESPN Bracketology segments.... they were, to a man, asking how in the *#$@% KU ended up in a bracket like that when they are supposedly the #1 overall seed. Apparently being the "#1 overall seed" doesn't mean squat.

Yeah, but in the end...

Midwest winner: No. 1 Kansas.

:)

HC_Chief
03-15-2010, 05:37 PM
Yeah, but in the end...:)

Damn straight! Rather than an excuse we should wear it as a badge of pride if we win it all :D

Bearcat
03-15-2010, 05:50 PM
Facetious, for sure, but excuses? Hardly.

It's common knowlege. Hell, look at the first sentence in virtually every sportwrite's comments re: Midwest bracket.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/tournament/2010/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=4996705

"Kansas has the toughest regional of any of the four No. 1 seeds and yet the Jayhawks were the overall No. 1 seed. Go figure. Kansas gets the Big Ten tournament champion (Ohio State) as a No. 2 seed; the Big East tournament finalist (Georgetown) at No. 3 and the co-ACC champion (Maryland) at No. 4. That puts some heavy company in the mix for Kansas. I didn't even mention Michigan State at No. 5. The Spartans were a runaway Big Ten title team at one point this season before hitting the skids. And don't forget Missouri Valley champion Northern Iowa at No. 9, too. This is a loaded bracket. "

Watch the ESPN Bracketology segments.... they were, to a man, asking how in the *#$@% KU ended up in a bracket like that when they are supposedly the #1 overall seed. Apparently being the "#1 overall seed" doesn't mean squat.

Oh, and FWIW, in 2008...

#2 Georgetown: Big East (outright) regular season champions and BE tournament finalist

#3 Wisconsin: Big 10 (outright) regular season champions and Big 10 tournament champions

#4 Vanderbilt: IIRC, they were scary good from 3pt land.

#11 Kansas State: For the "teams who beat KU in the regular season" angle.

And that doesn't even include Davidson, which came 1 shot away from beating the top 3 seeds in the region.



Georgetown isn't as good as they were two years ago... people see "Georgetown" and think they're a bad ass BE team. They're the only team in the top 25 with double-digit losses, they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games, and lost 8 BE games. Ohio State? It'll be like MSU last year... seems like it's a right of passage to get dragged through the mud... SIU, UCLA, Davidson, MSU. And MSU? Not the same team as last year.

Looking at the other 3s and 4s, I see why people are saying KU got the toughest bracket, but it's the bottom half that's brutal, and the tough part shouldn't even be on the Jayhawks' radar until late Saturday night.... and once you get that far, you're going to have to step it up, regardless of who you're playing.

mikeyis4dcats.
03-15-2010, 06:01 PM
Overall KenPomnIdex by region:
1. West 680
2. South 682
3. East 731
4. MidWest 751

Top 4 seeds by region:
1. East 36
2. South 38
3. West 44
4. Midwest 56

#2 seeds by KPI:
1. E - WVU (4)
2. W - KSU (6)
3. S - Villanova (11)
4. MW - OSU (26)

#4/5 seeds KPI:
1. East 28
2. South 31
3. West 38
4. Midwest 51

#8/9 seeds KPI:
1. South 55
2. MW 63
3 East 66
4. West 77

mikeyis4dcats.
03-15-2010, 06:02 PM
Rankings by kenpom, remember, each region should have:
1 top 4
2 top 8
3 top 12
4 top 16
5 top 20

Midwest:
2 top 4 (KU 2, OSU 4)
2 top 8 (KU, OSU)
4 top 12 (KU, OSU, Maryland 10, GU 11)
4 top 16 (KU, OSU, Maryland, GU)
4 top 20

South:
1 top 4 (duke 1)
1 top 8 (duke)
2 top 12 (Duke, Baylor 12)
5 top 16 (Duke, Baylor, Purdue 13, Cal 14, Nova 15)
6 top 20 (duke, BU, UP, Cal, Nova, Utah State 20)

East:
1 top 4 (Wisconsin 3 (ha!))
3 top 8 (Wisconsin, UK 6, WVU 8)
3 top 12 (Wisc, UK, WVU)
4 top 16 (Wisc, UK, WVU, Clemson 16)
6 top 20 (Wisc, UK, WVU, Clemson, UT 17, Temple 18)

West:
0 top 4
2 top 8 (Syr 5, BYU 7)
3 top 12 (Syr, BYU, KSU 9)
3 top 16 (Syr, BYU, KSU)
4 top 20 (Syr, BYU, KSU, FSU 19)


A few interesting things here:
1) Duke may have a tougher bracket than it initially seemed
2) KU has a top loaded bracket, but only the chance of playing 2 top 20 ken pom teams
3) The other three #1 seeds have the chance to hit a top 20 kenpom team the first weekend.
4) Duke and UK both have the chance of playing a top 20 team every game after the openeing round
5) We're the only team within 650 miles of our regional and we are less than 300 miles away from St. Louis.

(stolen from another forum btw)

Tits McGee
03-15-2010, 07:43 PM
Baylor final four at 36%, interesting.....

Mr. Laz
03-15-2010, 07:47 PM
hell ... even Lehigh is 10th in the nation at 3-pt percentage which is KU's biggest weakness.

LetsSignRussell
03-16-2010, 12:38 AM
My final four: keep in mind i'll probaby change it another 10 times before thursday

ku
kentucky
kstate
baylor

veist
03-16-2010, 01:34 AM
Interesting thing to note, OSU's starters average a TON of minutes, three guys getting >80% of the minutes, and Turner would probably be getting >80% too but for that scary injury. Duke is in a similar position with their big 3 getting a silly amount of minutes, between Scheyer, Singler and Smith they are getting 87% of the minutes. That is a heck of a lot of minutes on those legs.

Guru
03-16-2010, 02:50 AM
My final four: keep in mind i'll probaby change it another 10 times before thursday

ku
kentucky
kstate
baylorImagine the media confusion if 3 Big XII teams made the Final Four.

Old Dog
03-16-2010, 07:01 AM
My original bracket had 5 Big XII teams in the in the Sweet 16, but I have since revised it and dropped Okie St

ChiTown
03-16-2010, 08:58 AM
My original bracket had 5 Big XII teams in the in the Sweet 16, but I have since revised it and dropped Okie St

I got okie state losing in rd 1 to Ga Tech. Their size is going to bother the Pokes, imo. Their backcourt/wing goes 6-5, 6-5, 6-6. That matches well with Muenelo and Anderson. Their front court with Lawal and Favors will dominate the paint. JMHO

BWillie
03-16-2010, 09:10 AM
I got okie state losing in rd 1 to Ga Tech. Their size is going to bother the Pokes, imo. Their backcourt/wing goes 6-5, 6-5, 6-6. That matches well with Muenelo and Anderson. Their front court with Lawal and Favors will dominate the paint. JMHO

I have Georgia Tech as a possible dark horse. I think they could give KSU fits. Derrick Favors is really, really coming on strong. He's an elite talent who's figuring it out. That team is better than their record.

ChiTown
03-16-2010, 09:18 AM
I have Georgia Tech as a possible dark horse. I think they could give KSU fits. Derrick Favors is really, really coming on strong. He's an elite talent who's figuring it out. That team is better than their record.

Ga Tech is in KU's bracket, not KSU's.

sedated
03-16-2010, 09:26 AM
Ga Tech is in KU's bracket, not KSU's.

they are all in the same bracket if they win enough

:D

ChiTown
03-16-2010, 09:38 AM
they are all in the same bracket if they win enough

:D

Heh, good point. That would be bad news for KU fans if KSU is playing Ga Tech in the tourney

Mr. Laz
03-16-2010, 09:42 AM
Heh, good point. That would be bad news for KU fans if KSU is playing Ga Tech in the tourneytoo late to fork over the cash?

ChiTown
03-16-2010, 09:45 AM
too late to fork over the cash?

Nah, the KU atm is ALWAYS open. Get you some!

Saulbadguy
03-16-2010, 09:49 AM
Nah, the KU atm is ALWAYS open. Get you some!

The token white KU players dad's are good for some "pocket money". :D

ChiTown
03-16-2010, 09:52 AM
The token white KU players dad's are good for some "pocket money". :D

AND, they are easy to spot. Just look for the referees who will be officiating the next KU game......

Dartgod
03-16-2010, 09:56 AM
This may have been addressed elsewhere, but...

How come Duke gets the play-in game winner? I thought that went to the #1 overall seed?

Old Dog
03-16-2010, 10:08 AM
KU is at a Thu-Sat site....it gives the play in winner an extra day

sedated
03-16-2010, 10:53 AM
This may have been addressed elsewhere, but...

How come Duke gets the play-in game winner? I thought that went to the #1 overall seed?

I think they have 2 factors for where the play-in winner goes - has to be a Friday game, and I believe they look for a spot close to Dayton to reduce travel.

Playing the play-in winner isn't the best situation, since the team waiting for the winner cannot dedicate 100% of their scouting until after the winner is decided.

DJay23
03-16-2010, 10:55 AM
At first, I was annoyed that KU sort of got disrespected. But think about this team. We always play better when up against it. I think a bunch of lollipops all the way to Indy would not have this team playing it's best ball. But with a larger than expected chance to lose in each round, I think the team will stay more focused and motivated.

I can see Sherron using the "disrespect" of the committee as a motivator.

I say just go out and kick some ass. They line em up, and we'll mow em down!

Rock Chalk Jayhawk!!!

Mr. Plow
03-16-2010, 11:09 AM
This may have been addressed elsewhere, but...

How come Duke gets the play-in game winner? I thought that went to the #1 overall seed?

Play in winner goes to a Fri/Sun bracket. Doesn't mean the winner necessarily plays the #1 overall seed.

Dartgod
03-16-2010, 11:28 AM
KU is at a Thu-Sat site....it gives the play in winner an extra day
I think they have 2 factors for where the play-in winner goes - has to be a Friday game, and I believe they look for a spot close to Dayton to reduce travel.

Playing the play-in winner isn't the best situation, since the team waiting for the winner cannot dedicate 100% of their scouting until after the winner is decided.
Play in winner goes to a Fri/Sun bracket. Doesn't mean the winner necessarily plays the #1 overall seed.
Gotcha! :thumb:

Mr. Plow
03-16-2010, 11:42 AM
Gotcha! :thumb:


Need me to explain in greater detail? :D