View Full Version : Economics CBO estimates reconciliation bill.

03-18-2010, 02:39 PM

Will shave a combined $1.3 trillion off the federal deficit in its first 20 years.

Will cover 95% of all Americans.

I'll post some commentary to go with it here in a moment.

If this is a repost, tell me quickly because I'm on my way to find more information.

03-18-2010, 02:42 PM

After Much Delay...
Posted by Kate Pickert
Thursday, March 18, 2010 at 11:59 am

Here (http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11355/hr4872.pdf)'s the 25-page Congressional Budget Office "preliminary estimate" of the Senate bill with the House package of changes. Much, much more here and on Time.com once I've had a chance to comb through and absorb all the policy implications. There are no earth-shattering changes. The Senate bill with the reconciliation package would reduce the federal deficit by $138 billion by 2019; the Senate bill itself would reduce the deficit by $118 billion over the same period.

Some people say that comprehensive health care reform is like a balloon - squeeze one part and another part expands. Increase subsidies, which the reconciliation package does, and the cost of the bill goes up. Delay the start of the excise tax, which the bill does, and revenue from the bill goes down. House Democratic leaders worked under severe fiscal constraints in designing their reconciliation package. They had to keep the legislation under $1 trillion over 10 years, make it save more than the Senate bill did, and expand coverage and affordability to satisfy House Democrats. These are not easy rules to follow, especially when the whip count is still volatile and the clock is ticking. But they followed the rules and the package could earn endorsements from some wavering House Democrats today.

Here are a few ways the reconciliation package would alter the Senate bill, based on a plain-language summary of the package leaked to The Hill earlier today:

Relative to the Senate bill, the reconciliation package:

* Increases subsidies to make buying insurance more affordable for middle-income Americans
* Weakens the individual mandate by reducing the penalty people pay if they don't maintain insurance coverage and phasing the penalty in over time.
* Strengthens employer mandate by increasing penalties that large companies would pay if they didn't provide coverage or their workers qualified for subsidies
* Closes Medicare Part D prescription drug gap known as the donut hole
* Adds a new tax to unearned income
* Increases payroll taxes for individuals earning $200,000 or more per year
* Increases the massive tax on the drug industry tax, but delays it by 1 year - the industry would have to pay $3.85 billion per year beginning in 2011.
* Increases the massive tax on the health insurance industry tax but delays it by 4 years - the industry would have to pay $11.2 billion per year beginning in 2014.
* Eliminates the much (and deservedly) maligned Cornhusker Kickback.

As I said, more to come. Stay tuned.

Read more: http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2010/03/18/after-much-delay/?xid=rss-topstories#ixzz0iYxTSqb3

03-18-2010, 02:46 PM
Politico with the concise summary. Best I've found.


CBO numbers
Posted by Carrie Budoff Brown 09:12 AM
March 18, 2010

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) just released the first set of Congressional Budget Office numbers to reporters this morning.

The bill would cost $940 billion, and reduce the deficit by $130 billion over the first 10 years and $1.2 trillion in the second 10 years. The deficit numbers Democrats have been most worried about, and will be key to convincing moderates to coming on board with the bill.

Here are the details, according to House Democrats:

1. CUTS THE DEFICIT Cuts the deficit by $130 billion in the first ten years (2010 – 2019). Cuts the deficit by $1.2 trillion in the second ten years. 2. REINS IN WASTEFUL MEDICARE COSTS AND EXTENDS THE SOLVENCY OF MEDICARE; CLOSES THE PRESCRIPTION DRUG DONUT HOLE Reduces annual growth in Medicare expenditures by 1.4 percentage points per year—while improving benefits and lowering costs for seniors. Extends Medicare’s solvency by at least 9 years. 3. EXPANDS AND IMPROVES HEALTH COVERAGE FOR MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES Expands health insurance coverage to 32 million Americans Helps guarantee that 95 percent of Americans will be covered. 4. IS FULLY PAID FOR Is fully paid for – costs $940 billion over a decade. (Americans spend nearly $2.5 trillion each year on health care now and nearly two-thirds of the bill’s cost is paid for by reducing health care costs).

03-18-2010, 02:52 PM
God damn you are late to the party. This is a prelimanary release. Only released because the ****ing Dems leaked the info.

“The Congressional Budget Office has confirmed that there is currently no official cost estimate. Yet House Democrats are touting to the press – and spinning for partisan gain – numbers that have not been released and are impossible to confirm. Rep. James Clyburn stated he was “giddy” about these unsubstantiated numbers. This is the latest outrageous exploitation by the Majority – in this case abusing the confidentiality of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office – to pass their massive health care overhaul at any cost.”

If you had read any of the other threads you would know this.

“Although CBO completed a preliminary review of legislative language prior to its release, the agency has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal to verify its consistency with the previous draft. This estimate is therefore preliminary, pending a review of the language of the reconciliation proposal, as well as further review and refinement of the budgetary projections.” (CBO Director Doug Elmendorf, Letter To Rep. Nancy Pelosi, 3/18/10, P.1)

03-18-2010, 02:58 PM
Humor me, how does increasing subsidies make things cheaper?
How does it allow businesses to hire more people if they have to shell out more expense for health care?
How does adding tax to unearned income spur the economy?
Increasing taxes on drugs makes them cheaper for people how?
Increasing taxes on the health industry makes things cheaper how?
What good is medicare if more and more doctors and pharmacies are refusing to take medicare?

03-18-2010, 03:03 PM
$130 bil over 10 years? of a $12 tril deficit.

WOW! Talk about fucking savings! That's like all of 1% over 10 years. About what TORT reform would save EVERY year yet the Dems said that wasn't enough.

03-18-2010, 03:05 PM
Stupid thread should die like the HC bill

03-18-2010, 03:11 PM
Stupid thread should die like the HC bill

He sure ran away from his own thread awfully quick.