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View Full Version : U.S. Issues The REAL Current (un)Employment Picture-Don't be Fooled by Census Jobs


vailpass
06-05-2010, 02:32 PM
obama fail

Bleak news on jobs adds gloom to market
Majority of new hires were only temporary
By Steven Syre, Globe Staff | June 5, 2010

US companies created only a handful of new jobs in May, casting fresh doubts on the strength of the economic recovery and sending the stock market into a tailspin yesterday.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the country’s nonfarm employment increased by 431,000 jobs last month, but nearly all of those were government hires, temporary positions related to the 2010 census. Less than one-tenth of the new jobs — 41,000 — were at companies in the private sector.

Rex Macy, chief investment officer of Wilmington Trust Investment Management, likened yesterday’s employment report to one pixel in a developing picture.

“It’s a dark pixel painting a gloomier image,’’ Macy said. “But the total picture we see is one of a fragile economy and a frail recovery. We get good news, then bad news and people are nervous.’’

Some sectors of the economy did add jobs, including manufacturing, while others suffered notable losses. The construction industry lost 35,000 jobs in May, ordinarily a busy time of year for the building trades. Another less-than-reassuring sign: One of the sectors reporting the largest job growth remains the temporary help business, indicating that employers are still not ready to take the next step and make permanent hires.

The employment report had a particularly bleak view of life for those without jobs. The average duration of unemployment increased to 34.4 weeks, from 33 weeks in April, and is now the longest period on record for Americans waiting to return to work. The hiring picture was also considerably dimmer than what President Obama had predicted. Earlier in the week, the president said the May report would show “strong job growth.’’

As that didn’t turn out, Obama’s tone yesterday was more modulated, as he sought to remind people the economy recovery was still in its early stages.

“Things never go completely in a smooth line,’’ he said. The president urged patience, said his policies are working, and added the economy is “moving in the right direction’’ because it is nonetheless producing jobs again.

Including the new government positions, the overall 413,000 job increase was the single largest one-month gain in a decade, and helped drive the nation’s unemployment rate to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent.

But economists and investors looked right past those headline numbers yesterday. Economists had been expecting much larger job gains in May — at 100,000 more on average — so the particularly weak showing by private sector employers was an unexpected jolt to Wall Street.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed yesterday below 10,000, the second time in two weeks, ending yesterday down 323.31 points at 9,931.97, its lowest close in nearly four months. All 30 stocks in the benchmark index lost value, reflecting broad anxiety about the direction of the economy.

“People are beginning to feel that the pace of the economic improvement is slowing,’’ said Ken Taubes, chief US investment officer for Pioneer Investments in Boston. “People are scaling back their expectations.’’

Investors and economists blamed some of the sluggish economic growth on the European debt crisis, reasoning that American companies are worried about the health of one of the world’s largest consumer markets and therefore holding back on hiring.

“My sense is there’s going to be some significant pulling back of spending, mainly in terms of hiring, until the dust blows over,’’ said economist Brian Bethune of IHS Global Insight in Lexington. “What we’ve seen consistently is that the American business sector has been able to adjust’’ to changing economic developments.

Indeed, just yesterday Hungary said that its economy was in “very grave’’ condition, after that country’s new government determined it may not have the money to pay its debt. That brings to at least four — including Greece, Spain, and Portugal — the number of European countries whose debt problems have become so severe they are affecting the continent’s economy.

Hungary’s unsettling disclosure helped push the euro below $1.20 for the first time since 2006, as investors feared the financial contagion would continue to spread through Europe. The euro is now down more than 20 percent against the US dollar since its most recent peak in November.

Europe’s problems are but one factor that has kept US stock markets on edge for the past few months. Contradictory economic reports have sharply increased the volatility of stock prices, and on bad days helped to erase some of the huge gains markets had posted since the meltdown from the global credit crisis in 2008.

A bull market that began in March 2009 brought stocks back 70 percent from their 2008 lows. But since peaking in April, US stocks have fallen 11 percent.

The economy, and consequently stock markets, often move in fits and starts during the early stages of a recovery. The first months can often be marked by slow job creation, while stocks frequently retreat after steep climbs. After the relatively mild 2001 recession hiring by companies accelerated and then slowed at times.

But strong job growth is more important in this recovery because unemployment is especially high and the nation lost so many jobs in 2008 and 2009.

“I think investors need to see evidence the economic recovery, although halting, is intact,’’ said James Weiss of Weiss Capital Management in Concord.

And going forward, the economy can’t rely on the US Census for new job growth. The agency’s hiring for the decennial head count peaked in May and its overall employment will be declining in June.

http://www.boston.com/business/markets/articles/2010/06/05/bleak_news_on_jobs_adds_gloom_to_market?mode=PF

mikey23545
06-05-2010, 02:36 PM
It's Bush's fault...

Chief Faithful
06-05-2010, 05:49 PM
I read yesterday the Census hiring was excessive and speculated that the Administration requested the excessive hiring to improve economic figures.

Saul Good
06-05-2010, 05:52 PM
I read yesterday the Census hiring was excessive and speculated that the Administration requested the excessive hiring to improve economic figures.

I've heard that they have even laid off workers and re-hired them almost immediately so that the hiring numbers look better.

BucEyedPea
06-05-2010, 06:10 PM
I've heard that they have even laid off workers and re-hired them almost immediately so that the hiring numbers look better.

I have a friend who's been working for them on and off since last summer. They go for like 5 weeks then layoff. Then re-hire. I've saw the census at my local library since last fall with a recruiting sitting out front. Not only that but if your a vet they add 5 pts to your score on their test and 10 pts if your disabled. Then they give the better positions to the minorities. Like being incharge of a team etc.

banyon
06-05-2010, 06:18 PM
I've heard that they have even laid off workers and re-hired them almost immediately so that the hiring numbers look better.

Is there anything to base that on?

Saul Good
06-05-2010, 06:36 PM
Is there anything to base that on?

Well, there's BEP's friend...

Also, there's this. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/06/03/census_worker_claims_job_numbers_are_being_inflated.html

and this http://cnsnews.com/news/article/67156


Take it for what it's worth. I don't know if it's true or not, but it seems plausible.

petegz28
06-05-2010, 09:50 PM
Is there anything to base that on?

Banyon, this is the same Admin. who claimed if you got a raise due to the Stimulus bill, a job was created.

This is not a far-fetched accusation for this Admin.

Stinger
06-05-2010, 10:02 PM
I have a friend who's been working for them on and off since last summer. They go for like 5 weeks then layoff. Then re-hire. I've saw the census at my local library since last fall with a recruiting sitting out front. Not only that but if your a vet they add 5 pts to your score on their test and 10 pts if your disabled. Then they give the better positions to the minorities. Like being incharge of a team etc.

This is correct although the hiring, layoff and rehire is done because there have been different phases. Here in they are ending phase 4 and starting phase 5 in July. Phase 4 was door to door enumeration, next phase is to go back and canvas those who could not or would not answer the door to door.

cdcox
06-05-2010, 10:09 PM
I've heard that they have even laid off workers and re-hired them almost immediately so that the hiring numbers look better.

I heard that the 400,000 jobs created were just two guys in a room. One guy, the supervisor, lays the other guy off. Then he rehires him. The next minute he lays him off again and so on.

The administration is going to add 2 more people doing this with the goal of 1M jobs in June.

cannon1988
06-05-2010, 11:00 PM
Let me tell all of you faggers something.

Obama isn't being liberal enough with this census bullshit. The census jobs are boosting the economy, stimulating every growth we see in the stock market.

Obama has the responsibility of nationalizing our employment sector, making the government responsible for all jobs. This is America. Land of freedom and law. We need our government for this.

We need our government...

HonestChieffan
06-06-2010, 06:09 AM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704764404575286831965692578.html

Great story. The real truth from a business perspective is that hiring now is a gamble that business cannot afford. Business(real employers) is under a frontal assault by Washington and until they see the true impact of taxes, ObamaCare, and the rest, they will do all they can to get by with the employees they have and expand business if possible through efficiency

BigChiefFan
06-06-2010, 06:14 AM
The American dream has basically been taken a shit on, by those that think they are entitled.

Saul Good
06-06-2010, 07:58 AM
I heard that the 400,000 jobs created were just two guys in a room. One guy, the supervisor, lays the other guy off. Then he rehires him. The next minute he lays him off again and so on.

The administration is going to add 2 more people doing this with the goal of 1M jobs in June.

I guess you missed the part where I posted 2 articles to back this up. That's okay.

ROYC75
06-06-2010, 08:30 AM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704764404575286831965692578.html

Great story. The real truth from a business perspective is that hiring now is a gamble that business cannot afford. Business(real employers) is under a frontal assault by Washington and until they see the true impact of taxes, ObamaCare, and the rest, they will do all they can to get by with the employees they have and expand business if possible through efficiency

BINGO !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Here's an example, The trucking industry that I work in has a critical need for truck drivers. The load to truck ratio across the country is a staggering 25 to 1. In the heavy industrial zones, it's 70 to 1. Bigger trucking companies will not purchase trucks to hire new employees because of the fear of the double dip recession plus the normal slow down period of each winter.

This past recession has seen major companies down size their fleets to a minimal crew in order of hanging on during the troubled times. Where before, fleets didn't mind to let a few trucks sit idle until a driver could be found to replace a former driver.

At this time , if you own a truck, you can just about name your price when it comes to rates. As a shipper, you have the fear of shipping at a higher price, passing the cost to the consumer or letting it sit idle on your docks or in warehouses.

For someone like myself, being in the middle is tough, you have one wanting more money ( truckers ), one wanting to pay less ( shippers ) and you have little trucks to work with. Profit margin in my business now is bad due to the low number of trucks, it should be the same in the winter when the pendulum swings the other way around. This industry is at least 1 1/2 years away from averaging out.

Yes, the fear of hiring in an unstable market is holding back the economy.

cannon1988
06-06-2010, 11:30 AM
Let me tell all of you pillowbitergers something.

Obama isn't being liberal enough with this census bullshit. The census jobs are boosting the economy, stimulating every growth we see in the stock market.

Obama has the responsibility of nationalizing our employment sector, making the government responsible for all jobs. This is America. Land of freedom and law. We need our government for this.

We need our government...

This is exactly right. We need more of this kind of mentality.

BucEyedPea
06-06-2010, 11:43 AM
This is exactly right. We need more of collectivist aka commie mentality.

FYP