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View Full Version : U.S. Issues Intrade: Rand Paul looks set for Washington


Taco John
06-14-2010, 03:44 PM
Rand Paul looks set for Washington

Mon Jun 14, 3:48 am ET
Ron Paul, a long-serving congressman from Texas is well known for his libertarian views and frequent "no" votes on the house floor. The apple certainly hasn't fallen far from the tree. Like his father, Rand Paul is an MD. Like his father he's a staunch libertarian. And now, like his father, Rand Paul looks set for the United States congress.

Rand, a favourite of the Tea Party movement, is the Republican candidate for the US Senate seat for Kentucky being vacated in November by the retiring Jim Bunning. The Intrade market shows Paul trading well ahead his Democratic opponent, state Attorney General Jack Conway.

The market currently shows Paul with a 65.0% chance of winning in November. This figure was as high as 75.0% following his primary victory last month, but comments regarding his opposition to certain parts of the Civil Rights Act saw his chances fall to as low as 52.0%. The recovery would indicate however that Rand will soon be joining his father in the Capitol.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/intrade/20100614/pl_intrade/intrade_news_20100614150_1;_ylc=X3oDMTEwOXBxdTR2BF9TAzIwMjM4Mjc1MjQEZW1haWxJZAMxMjc2NTI2OTA4

orange
06-14-2010, 05:02 PM
He's a shoo-in, alright. When the State of Kentucky doesn't certify his election, he can set up his own Board to do it. I hear his father-in-law and wife are available to run it - they sure aren't busy with anything else.

ROFL

BucEyedPea
06-14-2010, 05:14 PM
He's a shoo-in, alright. When the State of Kentucky doesn't certify his election, he can set up his own Board to do it. I hear his father-in-law and wife are available to run it - they sure aren't busy with anything else.

ROFL

Oh BFD! There shouldn't even be a board for such things. Unless it's truly a private one.

BucEyedPea
06-14-2010, 05:52 PM
He's a shoo-in, alright. When the State of Kentucky doesn't certify his election, he can set up his own Board to do it. I hear his father-in-law and wife are available to run it - they sure aren't busy with anything else.

ROFL

His own board? Pluhease! I was founded by 200 other ophthalmologists and is called the National Board of Ophthalmology. It was formed because the American Board of Ophthalmology's decision to grandfather in the older ophthalmologists and not require them to recertify.

Please tell me which would show one requires more up to date knowledge and skill for higher quality. Competition leads to improvements. There need not be ONE board. Each board can publish their certification requirements so there is transparency.

This is such a total NON story!! Keep reaching for those straws.

Taco John
06-14-2010, 06:00 PM
He's a shoo-in, alright. When the State of Kentucky doesn't certify his election, he can set up his own Board to do it. I hear his father-in-law and wife are available to run it - they sure aren't busy with anything else.

ROFL


No idea what you're talking about.

orange
06-14-2010, 06:32 PM
His own board? Pluhease! I was founded by 200 other ophthalmologists and is called the National Board of Ophthalmology. It was formed because the American Board of Ophthalmology's decision to grandfather in the older ophthalmologists and not require them to recertify.

Only EIGHT people - not calling Paul himself - are acknowledged certified by his "board." Paul let the thing go out of business in 2000 - then reactivated it when his REAL certification was expiring.

Please tell me which would show one requires more up to date knowledge and skill for higher quality.

That's easy. THE OTHER ONE. They actually HAVE requirements.

Each board can publish their certification requirements so there is transparency.

Transparency? Please show me RP's mystery-board's requirements. Or QUOTE RP himself, for that matter.

Here, this should help:

Annual filings for NBO list Paul -- a Tea Party favorite, who days after an upset win in the GOP primary for Kentucky's U.S. Senate race ignited a firestorm last week by criticizing a key provision of the Civil Rights Act -- as the group's "owner and president." Paul's wife, Kelley Paul, is listed as its vice president, and his father-in-law, Hilton Ashby, is listed as its secretary. But it's not clear how involved Kelley Paul or Ashby have been. Reached at his home in Russellville, Kentucky, Ashby told TPMmuckraker: "I can't tell you what the organization does." Informed that he was listed as the group's secretary, Ashby said: "I was at one time involved as a secretary on something. But I don't know whether it was about that specifically or not."

Paul's organization has had little public presence since its founding over a decade ago. It appears to have no website, and a Lexis-Nexis search turns up no articles mentioning the group. Nor does it appear to have filed tax forms with the IRS, according to a search of a database listing non-profits. Indeed, the state of Kentucky dissolved NBO in 2000 after it failed to file the appropriate forms, according to the online records, but it was reinstated in 2005, and has filed an annual report every year since then.

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/05/rand_pauls_upstart_ophthalmology_group_leaves_litt.php

Or maybe not....

BucEyedPea
06-14-2010, 06:33 PM
No idea what you're talking about.

He's making fun of the fact that Dr. Rand Paul started his own National Board of Ophthalmology to compete with the American Board of Ophthalmology, which was done in protest to the ABO's process to grandfather in older doctors eventhough they did not update themselves. Except the ABO's is recognized. LOL! A progressive defending a monopoly attached to state power when Rand's organization founded along with 200 other ophthalmologists to compete by having higher standards. It's completely consistent with Rand's principles eventhough he is completely qualified under the ABO's process.

LMFAO at the reasoning. Appeal to Authority fallacy.

BucEyedPea
06-14-2010, 06:35 PM
Only EIGHT people - not calling Paul himself - are acknowledged certified by his "board." Paul let the thing go out of business in 2002 - then reactivated it when his REAL certification was expiring.



That's easy. THE OTHER ONE. They actually HAVE requirements.



Transparency? Please show me RP's mystery-board's requirements. Or QUOTE RP himself, for that matter.

The NBO's requirements are higher. This is an Appeal to Authority.
Paul is qualified by the ABO anyway and was previously certified by them.
As to the 200 number, I trust Rand more than any Democrat's opposition research claims.
Now look up the sordid history of groups like the AMA which the ABO is connected to. Both connected to state power to survive.

Taco John
06-14-2010, 06:38 PM
Oh. What do I care?

Buc, why waste time arguing something nobody cares about in any thread, let alone this one?

orange
06-14-2010, 06:39 PM
He's making fun of the fact that Dr. Rand Paul started his own National Board of Ophthalmology to compete with the American Board of Ophthalmology, which was done in protest to the ABO's process to grandfather in older doctors eventhough they did not update themselves. Except the ABO's is recognized. LOL! A progressive defending a monopoly attached to state power when Rand's organization founded along with 200 other ophthalmologists to compete by having higher standards. It's completely consistent with Rand's principles eventhough he is completely qualified under the ABO's process.

LMFAO at the reasoning. Appeal to Authority fallacy.

.... And also making fun of the fact that HE CLAIMED he's still certified by the real board in a newspaper interview. And that he's been misrepresenting himself to his patients and the hospitals he's worked at for the last five years. And that he's back under the spotlight again.

Rand Paul's ophthalmology certification not recognized by national clearinghouse

U.S. Senate candidate Rand Paul says he is a "board-certified" ophthalmologist -- even though the national clearinghouse for such certifications says he hasn't been for the past five years.

Rand Paul, who practices in Bowling Green, says he is certified by the National Board of Ophthalmology, a group that he incorporated in 1999 and that he heads.

But that entity is not recognized by the American Board of Medical Specialties, which works with the American Medical Association to approve such specialty boards.....

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20100614/NEWS0106/6140307/Rand-Paul-s-ophthalmology-certification-not-recognized-by-national-clearinghouse

Taco John
06-14-2010, 06:39 PM
In any case, Intrade is pretty good at trending. Whatever you want to say about his board certifications (which I don't know anything about), he's on track for a seat in Congress.

orange
06-14-2010, 06:43 PM
Oh. What do I care?

Buc, why waste time arguing something nobody cares about in any thread, let alone this one?

"Nobody cares about" - ???

BucEyedPea
06-14-2010, 06:46 PM
.... And also making fun of the fact that HE CLAIMED he's still certified by the real board in a newspaper interview. And that he's been misrepresenting himself to his patients and the hospitals he's worked at for the last five years. And that he's back under the spotlight again.

Rand Paul's ophthalmology certification not recognized by national clearinghouse

U.S. Senate candidate Rand Paul says he is a "board-certified" ophthalmologist -- even though the national clearinghouse for such certifications says he hasn't been for the past five years.

Rand Paul, who practices in Bowling Green, says he is certified by the National Board of Ophthalmology, a group that he incorporated in 1999 and that he heads.

But that entity is not recognized by the American Board of Medical Specialties, which works with the American Medical Association to approve such specialty boards.....

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20100614/NEWS0106/6140307/Rand-Paul-s-ophthalmology-certification-not-recognized-by-national-clearinghouse
So.

Kinda like certified teachers and accredited schools that Suck! And get worse every year. I see where you standards sit orange.
Do you know how many people die at the hands of our AMA certified allopathic physicans are? Just from properly prescribed medication?

LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! at the Appeal to Authority here. You simply do not UNDERSTAND the mind of a libertarian or small govt type person.This is completely consistent with Rand's principles. As such, it's nothing more than a noisy distraction to impugn his character because you can't get him on issues. Just like the coordinated attacks on his father right now too. Saying he has a vested interest in gold due to his stock holdings when they'd actually decline in value if his ideas were implemented. Meanwhile, let's see how many of our congress critters gain from the military industrial complex and the banking industry. LOL!

BucEyedPea
06-14-2010, 06:49 PM
Oh. What do I care?

Buc, why waste time arguing something nobody cares about in any thread, let alone this one?

I like orange even if he mostly cuts and pastes. But I guess your right.

Taco John
06-14-2010, 07:07 PM
"Nobody cares about" - ???

What you are talking about... Nobody cares about it.

http://i139.photobucket.com/albums/q296/Cliff_045/Surprise_No_One_Cares-1.jpg

BucEyedPea
06-14-2010, 08:04 PM
“First they ignore you; then they ridicule you; then they fight you; then you win.”


As World War II bomber-pilots will tell you: “when you experience flak, that means you’re over the target.”

orange
06-14-2010, 08:09 PM
Here ya' go orange....courtesy of Shaffer over at Lew's

Here I go what? Since you didn't answer my questions AT ALL, I assume that - like everyone else - you couldn't find any actual requirements for National Board of Ophthalmology "certification."

DESPITE the 16,200,000 websites that are looking into this.

:doh!:

I guess it's time for another RP media blackout.

Taco John
06-14-2010, 09:21 PM
Oh Noes! Rand Paul has lost Orange's vote!

FD
06-14-2010, 09:41 PM
Intrade sometimes follows the polls rather than lead them, but nevertheless gives better predictions than almost anything. It would be a bit shocking if the Republican nominee lost there, especially this year, but it still looks like the effect of his stumbling out of the gate was overblown.

BucEyedPea
06-14-2010, 10:16 PM
Here I go what? Since you didn't answer my questions AT ALL, I assume that - like everyone else - you couldn't find any actual requirements for National Board of Ophthalmology "certification."
Questions plural? Nope you asked me one and it was sarcastic and rhetorical.

DESPITE the 16,200,000 websites that are looking into this.
:doh!:I guess it's time for another RP media blackout.
You don't get it. I don't care about herd mentality like you do. I want unconventional thinking.

I didn't read their requirements. And I'm not going to. I read a long article using Paul's words on why it was formed to tell me enough about the ABO's wanting to grandfather in older doctors instead of re certifying them automatically which he disagreed with. That's enough for me when it's a Paul talking.

Again, if you knew what libertarians thought about such boards, then this would be entirely in line with Rand's philosophy. Never mind that he could pass their credentials today and did in the past.

Since you love long winded articles:

I took the American Board of Ophthalmology (the largest governing body in ophthalmology) boards in 1995, passed them on my first attempt (as well as three times during residency), and was therefore board-certified under this organization for a decade.

In 1997, I, along with 200 other young ophthalmologists formed the National Board of Ophthalmology to protest the American Board of Ophthalmology's decision to grandfather in the older ophthalmologists and not require them to recertify.

I thought this was hypocritical and unjust for the older ophthalmologists to exempt themselves from the recertification exam.

In forming NBO, the younger ophthalmologists agreed to require recertification for all ophthalmologists.

In my protest to the American Board, I asked, “If the ABO thinks that qualify of care would be improved by board testing every decade, shouldn’t this apply to all doctors, not just those of a certain age? In fact, many of us argue that the older ophthalmologists need recertification even more since they are more distant from their training.

Is it fair that the ophthalmologist down the street can claim board certification, without renewing it, but that a younger ophthalmologist, who passed the same boards, is disallowed?

This is the kind of hypocritical power play that I despise and have always fought against. It reminds me of congress passing health care legislation but exempting themselves from their own laws. I protested to the ABO, as did many other younger doctors. This is when I came up with the idea of creating a competitor to the ABO, and formed a new organization, the National Board of Ophthalmology. Keep in mind that neither of these groups have anything to do with medical licensure, which is handled by the state boards.

ABO claims it is illegal to call for recertification of all ophthalmologists. This is untrue. ABO is a private group and create any rules they wish. (even discriminatory policies based on age) Having all its members recertify is not illegal just impractical because the older ophthalmologists will vote against it.

ABO argues that the older ophthalmologists were given "lifetime certification." This is also untrue. The certificates of the older ophthalmologist do not refer or explicity grant "lifetime" certification.

ABO argues that they are the legitamate organization because they are recognized by the American Board of Medical Specialties (ABMS). They fail to explain that ABO helped found ABMS and gets to vote on who is approved by ABMS. One can imagine why ABMS and ABO would not want to approve a competitor.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/right-now/2010/06/rand_paul_i_passed_my_opthamal.html

Easily answered. Mountain out of a molehill orange.

Dave Lane
06-14-2010, 10:18 PM
You know every time you think things can't get worse they do.

BucEyedPea
06-14-2010, 10:20 PM
You know every time you think things can't get worse they do.

He's still way ahead of his D opponent. Right now, both Paul's are being hit in coordinated attacks from those connected to Fed interests like the Washington Post for one. His Dad on his gold stocks. LMFAO when so many of them exempt themselves from the HC bill, other laws and benefit from bank lobbyists as well as the military industrial complex and medical industrial complex that keep competition out through the AMA and it's other medical boards driving up the cost of health care. The crime speaks loudest in accusation.

BucEyedPea
06-14-2010, 10:30 PM
ABO argues that they are the legitamate organization because they are recognized by the American Board of Medical Specialties (ABMS). They fail to explain that ABO helped found ABMS and gets to vote on who is approved by ABMS. One can imagine why ABMS and ABO would not want to approve a competitor.
The crime does speak loudeth in accusation.

Competition rocks!

orange
06-14-2010, 10:49 PM
The crime does speak loudeth in accusation.

Competition rocks!

He's not a competitor! His organization barely exists. Find it if you can.

BucEyedPea
06-14-2010, 10:58 PM
He's not a competitor! His organization barely exists. Find it if you can.

I already did find it. You don't get it. I don't care. I care about what policies he'll enact!
You voted for a community organizer.

Taco John
06-14-2010, 11:16 PM
You must care. You're arguing with him over it aren't you?

orange
06-14-2010, 11:52 PM
I already did find it. You don't get it. I don't care. I care about what policies he'll enact!

Matthew Harrison Brady: I do not think about things I do not think about.
Henry Drummond: Do you ever think about things that you do think about?

BucEyedPea
06-17-2010, 01:05 PM
You must care. You're arguing with him over it aren't you?

Ultimately no, it doesn't matter to me at all if Paul set up his own board.
Originally, if you note, I was just explaining what he was referring to for your benefit. I see now that orange came into this thread simply for an opportunity to troll instead of returning to the argument. Once that started, I cared more about the falsehoods in his argument and post, than what Rand did with a board.

KC native
06-17-2010, 04:28 PM
Intrade? ROFL Ah I love financial idiots who like to act like they know something. Intrade is garbage. It's thinly traded and can be gamed (like during the last round of elections). Seriously, Teej, thanks for the laugh.

KC native
06-17-2010, 04:29 PM
oh, and stupid bitch is stupid.

Taco John
06-17-2010, 05:24 PM
Intrade? ROFL Ah I love financial idiots who like to act like they know something. Intrade is garbage. It's thinly traded and can be gamed (like during the last round of elections). Seriously, Teej, thanks for the laugh.

Of course it can be gamed. It's usually easy to tell when that happens though. I don't know what you're talking about the last round of elections. Intrade was remarkably accurate during the last round of elections. Each one of their polls closed at 100%. It doesn't get more accurate than 100%.

FD
06-17-2010, 05:45 PM
Intrade? ROFL Ah I love financial idiots who like to act like they know something. Intrade is garbage. It's thinly traded and can be gamed (like during the last round of elections). Seriously, Teej, thanks for the laugh.

If its being gamed you should have no problem profiting handsomely off it.

orange
06-17-2010, 06:15 PM
If its being gamed you should have no problem profiting handsomely off it.

Well, there is a minor problem. The Rand Paul election for example has had one trade (that's ONE) in the last week. Kind of hard to make a killing off of that.

...

p.s. If someone were to bid $40 for Paul and get a seller, would that mean Conway's a shoo-in?

Chiefshrink
06-17-2010, 08:32 PM
In any case, Intrade is pretty good at trending. Whatever you want to say about his board certifications (which I don't know anything about), he's on track for a seat in Congress.

Is he your boy for 2012? Not asking sarcastically here.

Taco John
06-17-2010, 08:48 PM
p.s. If someone were to bid $40 for Paul and get a seller, would that mean Conway's a shoo-in?


Of course not. The election doesn't react to the market, the market reacts to the election. I understand that the market is baffling to Democrats, but it's hard for me to believe that you're THIS confused about how it works.

Taco John
06-17-2010, 09:00 PM
Is he your boy for 2012? Not asking sarcastically here.


I wish I had an answer for that, but I just don't right now. I like Rand, but I don't know how he will politic once the rubber meets the road.

Currently, my vote will go to his father, despite his age, knowing that he could do more good in educating Americans on the founding principles of libertarian government than any of the leading establishment Republicans would do if they were actually in office. I see a Mitt Romney win as a loss. Not to mention Palin or Huckabee.

I don't think people understand right now how wild the support for Ron Paul is going to be. There's a money bomb planned already for Dec. 16th to put his campaign on the map. His supporters are basically going to draft him to run whether he wants to or not. I don't know how big that money bomb will be, but I'd be suprised if it wasn't at least a $4 million dollar single day event, and wouldn't be suprised if it turned out to be a $10 million dollar day.

If Rand wins, he'll obviously be a major player in the campaign. And who knows... Maybe a VP...

orange
06-18-2010, 01:28 AM
Of course not. The election doesn't react to the market, the market reacts to the election. I understand that the market is baffling to Democrats, but it's hard for me to believe that you're THIS confused about how it works.

2008 US Elections Prediction: John McCain is now the favorite at InTrade, while all the other prediction exchanges still have Barack Obama ahead. Is InTrade quicker to incorporate the latest polls because of the bigger liquidity of its prediction markets?
Written by Chris F. Masse on September 11, 2008

http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/11/us-2008-elections-prediction/

orange
06-18-2010, 01:35 AM
Reality:

http://rvclearance.org/digital/2008-presidential-election-results.jpg


Intrade:

orange
06-18-2010, 01:36 AM
from http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/intradeTV/

Where in the world did you get the idea they were perfect?

Taco John
06-18-2010, 03:21 AM
from http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/intradeTV/

Where in the world did you get the idea they were perfect?

Every one of their polls ends the same: with the market moving to the winner.

Taco John
06-18-2010, 03:34 AM
Reality:

http://rvclearance.org/digital/2008-presidential-election-results.jpg


Intrade:



Your little point makes no impact without the context of knowing the date, time, and the direction of the polls. Intrade isn't static and isn't intended to be interpreted as static. What was the price of BP stock a year ago? What is it today? It was probably too high then. It is probably too low now. But significant events have to happen to significantly change the direction of a market trend.

When an Intrade poll closes, it closes on the money, at 100%. That last link you posted is a great example. It tracks exactly how that race shaped up over time. Each spike is tied to an event. Each dip, also tied to an event. And when the thing closed, the market was exactly right.

It's not a crystal ball. It's an indicator.

Taco John
06-18-2010, 03:42 AM
I'll put it this way: if you don't have a fundamental understanding that Intrade polls are always going to close accurate, then you are uequipped to interpret them whatever. Taking a snap shot at any point in time, and then a snap shot of the results and saying "see, look, it didn't have it right 8 months before the election" is nothing short of laughable. It's like looking at a single Lakers game in November and saying "look at this score. These guys have no shot to win the title."

orange
06-18-2010, 10:25 AM
Taking a snap shot at any point in time, and then a snap shot of the results and saying "see, look, it didn't have it right 8 months before the election" is nothing short of laughable.

And yet that's EXACTLY what you're doing here in JUNE. Thanks for making my point!

Taco John
06-18-2010, 10:35 AM
And yet that's EXACTLY what you're doing here in JUNE. Thanks for making my point!


Not at all. I'm observing the trend to be sure. And I expect Rand Paul to win in November, just as the market does. But I'm not pretending that there isn't time for Rand to have his own "oil spill" to cause his numbers to deflate.

I'm merely pointing out that at this moment in time he is on pace to take the seat in Washington. Do you disagree that this is true? I don't see how you could.

KC native
06-20-2010, 02:28 PM
If its being gamed you should have no problem profiting handsomely off it.

I don't mess around with thinly traded markets. That's just asking to get your ass handed to you.

KC native
06-20-2010, 02:29 PM
from http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/intradeTV/

Where in the world did you get the idea they were perfect?

ROFL @ TJ.