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KC native
06-24-2010, 07:08 PM
I predict this will go well.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/us/20crime.html
On Border Violence, Truth Pales Compared to Ideas
By RANDAL C. ARCHIBOLD

When Representative Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat of Arizona, announced that the Obama administration would send as many as 1,200 additional National Guard troops to bolster security at the Mexican border, she held up a photograph of Robert Krentz, a mild-mannered rancher who was shot to death this year on his vast property. The authorities suspected that the culprit was linked to smuggling.

“Robert Krentz really is the face behind the violence at the U.S.-Mexico border,” Ms. Giffords said.

It is a connection that those who support stronger enforcement of immigration laws and tighter borders often make: rising crime at the border necessitates tougher enforcement.

But the rate of violent crime at the border, and indeed across Arizona, has been declining, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, as has illegal immigration, according to the Border Patrol. While thousands have been killed in Mexico’s drug wars, raising anxiety that the violence will spread to the United States, F.B.I. statistics show that Arizona is relatively safe.

That Mr. Krentz’s death nevertheless churned the emotionally charged immigration debate points to a fundamental truth: perception often trumps reality, sometimes affecting laws and society in the process.

Judith Gans, who studies immigration at the Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy at the University of Arizona, said that what social psychologists call self-serving perception bias seemed to be at play. Both sides in the immigration debate accept information that confirms their biases, she said, and discard, ignore or rationalize information that does not. There is no better example than the role of crime in Arizona’s tumultuous immigration debate.

“If an illegal immigrant commits a crime, this confirms our view that illegal immigrants are criminals,” Ms. Gans said. “If an illegal immigrant doesn’t commit a crime, either they just didn’t get caught or it’s a fluke of the situation.”

Ms. Gans noted that sponsors of Arizona’s controversial immigration enforcement law have made careers of promising to rid the state of illegal immigrants through tough legislation.

“Their repeated characterization of illegal immigrants as criminals — easy to do since they broke immigration laws — makes it easy for people to ignore statistics,” she said.

Moreover, crime statistics, however rosy, are abstract. It takes only one well-publicized crime, like Mr. Krentz’s shooting, to drive up fear.

It is also an election year, and crime and illegal immigration — and especially forging a link between the two — remain a potent boost for any campaign. Gov. Jan Brewer’s popularity, once in question over promoting a sales tax increase, surged after signing the immigration bill, which is known as SB 1070 but officially called the Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act.

No matter that manpower and technology are at unprecedented levels at the border, it may never be secure enough in Arizona’s hothouse political climate when Congressional seats, the governor’s office and other positions are at stake in the Aug. 24 primaries.

It took the Obama administration a few weeks to bow to that political reality and go from trumpeting the border as more secure than it had ever been to ordering National Guard troops to take up position there — most of them in Arizona, Mr. Obama assured Ms. Brewer in a private meeting — because it was not secure enough.

Crime figures, in fact, present a more mixed picture, with the likes of Russell Pearce, the Republican state senator behind the immigration enforcement law, playing up the darkest side while immigrant advocacy groups like Coalición de Derechos Humanos (Human Rights Coalition), based in Tucson, circulate news reports and studies showing that crime is not as bad as it may seem.

For instance, statistics show that even as Arizona’s population swelled, buoyed in part by illegal immigrants funneling across the border, violent crime rates declined, to 447 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2008, the most recent year for which comprehensive data is available from the F.B.I. In 2000, the rate was 532 incidents per 100,000.

Nationally, the crime rate declined to 455 incidents per 100,000 people, from 507 in 2000.

But the rate for property crime, the kind that people may experience most often, increased in the state, to 4,082 per 100,000 residents in 2008 from 3,682 in 2000. Preliminary data for 2009 suggests that this rate may also be falling in the state’s biggest cities.

What is harder to pin down is how much of the crime was committed by illegal immigrants.

Phoenix’s police chief, Jack Harris, who opposes the new law, said that about 13 percent of his department’s arrests are illegal immigrants, a number close to the estimated percentage of illegal immigrants in the local population. But the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office, which runs the jail for Phoenix and surrounding cities and is headed by Joe Arpaio, a fervent supporter of the law, has said that 19 percent of its inmates are illegal immigrants.

Scott Decker, a criminologist at Arizona State University, said a battery of studies have suggested that illegal immigrants commit fewer crimes, in part because they tend to come from interior cities and villages in their home country with low crime rates and generally try to keep out of trouble to not risk being sent home.

But he understood why people’s perceptions of crime might lag behind what the statistics show. “Hard as it is to change the crime rate, it may be more difficult to change public perceptions about the crime rate, particularly when those perceptions are linked to public events,” Mr. Decker said.

He added, “There is nothing more powerful than a story about a gruesome murder or assault that leads in the local news and drives public opinion that it is not safe anywhere.”

Kris Kobach, a University of Missouri law professor who helped write the Arizona immigration law, pointed to crimes like a wave of kidnappings related to the drug and human smuggling business in Phoenix, something Ms. Brewer herself noted when she signed the law.

Although the reports have dipped in the past couple of years, the police responded to 315 such cases last year.

“That’s scary to people, and people react to that all over the state,” Mr. Kobach said. “They are concerned. ‘That might happen in my part of the city eventually.’ ”

Terry Goddard, the state attorney general, who does not support the immigration law, said the drop in violent crime rates might not reflect the continued violence, often unreported, that is associated with smuggling organizations.

Mr. Goddard said he doubted that the immigration law would put a dent in the smuggling-related crime that grabs attention in the state. For that reason, Mr. Goddard, who is running to be the Democratic nominee for governor in the primary, said he backed the deployment of National Guard troops and supports increasing manpower and spending on police and prosecutor anti-smuggling units.

Brian L. Livingston, executive director of the Arizona Police Association, said he would prefer more attention on the border, too. But until then, he said, laws like Arizona’s are necessary.

“We know the majority of people crossing across are not criminal, but unfortunately some criminal elements are embedded with them,” he said, adding, “Governor Brewer gets that.”

As Ms. Brewer put it just after signing the bill: “We cannot sacrifice our safety to the murderous greed of drug cartels. We cannot stand idly by as drop houses, kidnappings and violence compromise our quality of life.”

KC native
06-24-2010, 07:09 PM
oh and inb4 racist assholes

I put the over/under for slurs at 2 posts. Don't disappoint vailpuss

Direckshun
06-24-2010, 07:19 PM
I would like to kindly request that I be referred to as a girl for the endurance of this thread.

Direckshun
06-24-2010, 07:19 PM
And link, please.

Saul Good
06-24-2010, 07:21 PM
Immigration is declining because there aren't any jobs. Other than that, what's the point of this article?

fan4ever
06-24-2010, 07:30 PM
A couple of years ago we passed a law to forcing companies to use "E-verify" for hiring. They made examples of companies for a few months hitting them with huge fines or revoking their business licenses for those caught circumventing the law. Many illegals have been thought to go to other states to find work in an easier fashion...so if we want to play the statistics game, you could claim, wrong or right, crime has been dropping since enforcing this law. You can massage statistics any way you want.

Saul Good
06-24-2010, 08:02 PM
This truth doesn't seem so pale:

http://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/region...Single98561261

CASA GRANDE, AZ - Two men shot earlier this week could be the result of the ongoing battle between Mexican drug cartels now spilling over deep into Arizona, officials say.

Pinal County investigators say an area known as the smuggling corridor now stretches from Mexico's border to metro Phoenix.

The area , once an area for family hiking and off road vehicles has government signs warning residents of the drug and human smugglers.

Night vision cameras have photographed military armed cartel members delivering drugs to vehicles along Highway 8.

"We are three counties deep. How is it that you see pictures like these, not American with semi and fully automatic rifles. How is that okay?" asked Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu.

Babeu said he no longer has control over parts of his county.

"We are outgunned, we are out manned and we don't have the resources here locally to fight this," he said at a Friday news conference.

Five weeks ago Deputy Louie Puroll was ambushed and shot as he tracked six drug smugglers.

Sheriff Babeu said the ambush mirrored military tactics.

Even more disturbing, Babeu said the man who called in to 911 operators for help seemed to know a lot about the sheriff deputy's case.

"He told operators they could find him where the deputy was shot and talked about our search helicopter. Things that were talked about on the news," Babeu said.

When operators asked the fatally wounded man how he knew the area, he claimed he sold cantelope near mile post 150.

Both men were found dead several hours later.

Detectives say next to them was a Bushmaster automatic rifle used by police officers for patrolling. It does not appear to be stolen.

Investigators also revealed that an autopsy showed strap marks on one of the men that likely came from hauling heavy loads, they suspect were drugs.

One of the men, deputies say, was voluntarily deported seven times.

Babeu said he doesn't believe the drug cartel problems will not be solved when SB 1070 becomes a law, or with President Obama's promise of 1,200 troops spread out among four border states.

KCHawg
06-24-2010, 08:28 PM
“If an illegal immigrant commits a crime, this confirms our view that illegal immigrants are criminals,” Ms. Gans said. “If an illegal immigrant doesn’t commit a crime, either they just didn’t get caught or it’s a fluke of the situation.”

Being ILLEGAL they are commiting a crime................

mlyonsd
06-24-2010, 08:31 PM
I would like to kindly request that I be referred to as a girl for the endurance of this thread.

Obligatory 'This thread is worthless without pics'.

Bwana
06-24-2010, 08:38 PM
I would like to kindly request that I be referred to as a girl for the endurance of this thread.

For the endurance of this thread?

Donger
06-25-2010, 07:09 AM
oh and inb4 racist assholes

I put the over/under for slurs at 2 posts. Don't disappoint vailpuss

KCnative, BEP informed me that "Hispanic" is not a race. I looked it up and she appears to be right.

What do you think of that?

stevieray
06-25-2010, 08:19 AM
Other than that, what's the point of this article?

Native is a racist.

patteeu
06-25-2010, 08:56 AM
KCnative, BEP informed me that "Hispanic" is not a race. I looked it up and she appears to be right.

What do you think of that?

What's Direckshun's take? Might as well see what all the girls think. :shrug:

blaise
06-25-2010, 09:00 AM
I'm so glad the border is safe. I should look to invest in some real estate there.

ClevelandBronco
06-25-2010, 09:07 AM
I would like to kindly request that I be referred to as a girl for the endurance of this thread.

A straight girl.

The Mad Crapper
06-25-2010, 09:11 AM
This burrito is kind of soggy.

Radar Chief
06-25-2010, 09:21 AM
I would like to kindly request that I be referred to as a girl for the endurance of this thread.

Since you bitch like a chick I always assumed you were one. :shrug:

kc rush
06-25-2010, 09:31 AM
oh and inb4 racist assholes

I put the over/under for slurs at 2 posts. Don't disappoint vailpuss

What is with putting that in white?

ClevelandBronco
06-25-2010, 09:39 AM
What is with putting that in white?

Shouldn't it have been in brown?



That's one.

blaise
06-25-2010, 09:43 AM
Violence in Barter Town was getting pretty bad, but after they built the Thunderdome it helped settle a lot of those differences in a way everyone could enjoy.

vailpass
06-25-2010, 11:11 AM
oh and inb4 racist assholes

I put the over/under for slurs at 2 posts. Don't disappoint vailpuss

Is that a leaf blower in your pants or are you just glad to see me?

KC native
06-25-2010, 02:21 PM
What is with putting that in white?

Is that a leaf blower in your pants or are you just glad to see me?

.

KC native
06-25-2010, 02:24 PM
Oh, and I like how no one actually replied to the actual op just reactions based on who posted it.

ClevelandBronco
06-25-2010, 02:28 PM
Oh, and I like how no one actually replied to the actual op just reactions based on who posted it.

And what should that tell you about your standing here?

blaise
06-25-2010, 02:37 PM
Oh, and I like how no one actually replied to the actual op just reactions based on who posted it.

I don't know what I'm supposed to say. Are immigrants unfairly painted as violent criminals by some people? Yes. Do I believe that the border areas are no more dangerous than most other places in the country because this guy cites some crime statistics? No. I don't really get what the author is trying to accomplish - that because some people generalize about what's going on at the border it means we should just pretend everything is just fine down there?
I'm not a big anti-immigration guy. I think almost all the immigrants from Mexico are just people trying to come here and work hard for jobs and they get an unfair rap. That being said, the arcticle doesn't really convince me there's not security problems at the border. It seems like the goal is more directed at trying to paint immigration enforcement as a whole as some sort of prejudiced, unfair effort toward Mexicans. I don't think that's any more fair than someone else generalizing immigrants based on the actions of some. You can be for stricter immigration enforcement and even support the Arizona law without being some sinister Mexican hater.

KC native
06-25-2010, 02:39 PM
And what should that tell you about your standing here?

Nothing at all. The idiot brigade lived up to their low standards.

ClevelandBronco
06-25-2010, 02:40 PM
Nothing at all. The idiot brigade lived up to their low standards.

Yeah. That's probably it.

KC native
06-25-2010, 02:41 PM
I don't know what I'm supposed to say. Are immigrants unfairly painted as violent criminals by some people? Yes. Do I believe that the border areas are no more dangerous than most other places in the country because this guy cites some crime statistics? No. I don't really get what the author is trying to accomplish - that because some people generalize about what's going on at the border it means we should just pretend everything is just fine down there?
I'm not a big anti-immigration guy. I think almost all the immigrants from Mexico are just people trying to come here and work hard for jobs and they get an unfair rap. That being said, the arcticle doesn't really convince me there's not security problems at the border. It seems like the goal is more directed at trying to paint immigration enforcement as a whole as some sort of prejudiced, unfair effort toward Mexicans. I don't think that's any more fair than someone else generalizing immigrants based on the actions of some. You can be for stricter immigration enforcement and even support the Arizona law without being some sinister Mexican hater.

This is actually a good post.

I'm big on empirical proof if you haven't noticed. I think in order to accurately address a problem then you need to know what's actually going on. Relying on emotional non-fact based arguments doesn't get us anywhere.

blaise
06-25-2010, 02:42 PM
Nothing at all. The idiot brigade lived up to their low standards.

To be fair, you didn't comment on it at all either. You're kind of just doing what you're saying everyone else is doing.

Donger
06-25-2010, 02:43 PM
Oh, and I like how no one actually replied to the actual op just reactions based on who posted it.

I'd actually like to see another statistic: has the illegal population also dropped in AZ along with a drop in violent crime?

Still, I'm sure that you acknowledge that illegals do perpetrate violent crime, no?

KC native
06-25-2010, 02:46 PM
To be fair, you didn't comment on it at all either. You're kind of just doing what you're saying everyone else is doing.

Yes, I posted it to just see the reaction as I was already familiar with this material and have actually posted a similar article a couple months ago.

KC native
06-25-2010, 02:46 PM
I'd actually like to see another statistic: has the illegal population also dropped in AZ along with a drop in violent crime?

Still, I'm sure that you acknowledge that illegals do perpetrate violent crime, no?

Have I stated otherwise?

KC native
06-25-2010, 02:52 PM
ROFL and what's a matter Otter? Can't find any made up NumbersUSA or CIS propaganda to refute this? ROFL

On Border Violence,... 06-25-2010 07:48 AM Otter You're one of the biggest on the board - faggot

Donger
06-25-2010, 02:54 PM
Have I stated otherwise?

Just making sure, amigo. But, you seemed to be making the argument that violent crime has dropped and that the number of illegals has remained the same. If so, I was just wondering where you got the stats that say that the number of illegals has dropped.

Donger
06-25-2010, 02:57 PM
Hmmmm. Cause and effect?

http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/ss/related/71835.php

Crackdown has illegal immigrants leaving Arizona

KC native
06-25-2010, 03:08 PM
Just making sure, amigo. But, you seemed to be making the argument that violent crime has dropped and that the number of illegals has remained the same. If so, I was just wondering where you got the stats that say that the number of illegals has dropped.

Hmmmm. Cause and effect?

http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/ss/related/71835.php

Crackdown has illegal immigrants leaving Arizona

Considering the considerable lag between the when this data is collected and then reported, your inference is completely off base.

Donger
06-25-2010, 03:10 PM
Considering the considerable lag between the when this data is collected and then reported, your inference is completely off base.

The article is posted is from December 2007. The article you posted refers to 2008 - 2009. Seems awfully close to me. But, I'd welcome any other dat that you may have to corroborate your apparent claim.

Otter
06-25-2010, 03:11 PM
ROFL and what's a matter Otter? Can't find any made up NumbersUSA or CIS propaganda to refute this? ROFL

On Border Violence,... 06-25-2010 07:48 AM Otter You're one of the biggest on the board - pillowbiter

Didn't look actually. I've given up debating with someone who creates their own reality.

KC native
06-25-2010, 03:12 PM
The article is posted is from December 2007. The article you posted refers to 2008 - 2009. Seems awfully close to me. But, I'd welcome any other dat that you may have to corroborate your apparent claim.

So, in what universe does a law passed in 2010 affect 2008-2009?

Donger
06-25-2010, 03:12 PM
Perhaps a local resident in Arizona could chime in with a first-hand, personal account? Has there been an appreciable drop in the number of illegals in Arizona since, say, 2008 up until now?

Vailpass?

Donger
06-25-2010, 03:13 PM
So, in what universe does a law passed in 2010 affect 2008-2009?

None? Why do you ask?

orange
06-25-2010, 03:13 PM
Hmmmm. Cause and effect?

http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/ss/related/71835.php

Crackdown has illegal immigrants leaving Arizona

So if their 2007 law got rid of all the illegals, why do they need the 2010 law?

KC native
06-25-2010, 03:14 PM
None? Why do you ask?

Because you are trying to say that the 2010 Arizona law is responsible for a drop in crime that happened before the law was passed.

Or did you not write this?

Hmmmm. Cause and effect?

http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/ss/related/71835.php

Crackdown has illegal immigrants leaving Arizona

Donger
06-25-2010, 03:15 PM
So if their 2007 law got rid of all the illegals, why do they need the 2010 law?

I don't think the article I posted claimed that it got rid of all of them.

orange
06-25-2010, 03:17 PM
I don't think the article I posted claimed that it got rid of all of them.

Did it reverse the pace? Are illegals now net leavers?

Donger
06-25-2010, 03:17 PM
Because you are trying to say that the 2010 Arizona law is responsible for a drop in crime that happened before the law was passed.

Or did you not write this?

No, I'm not. Please check the date of publication of the article I posted.

KC native
06-25-2010, 03:17 PM
Perhaps a local resident in Arizona could chime in with a first-hand, personal account? Has there been an appreciable drop in the number of illegals in Arizona since, say, 2008 up until now?

Vailpass?

Ah sweet, appealing for personal anecdotes when the empirical data is right in front of you.

Donger
06-25-2010, 03:18 PM
Did it reverse the pace? Are illegals now net leavers?

I don't know if there was a net gain or a net loss. But, logic tells me that it would be the latter.

KC native
06-25-2010, 03:18 PM
No, I'm not. Please check the date of publication of the article I posted.

Misread it.

Despite my initial misreading, if that law was so effective and the cause for the drop then why was an additional law needed in 2010?

Donger
06-25-2010, 03:19 PM
Ah sweet, appealing for personal anecdotes when the empirical data is right in front of you.

What's wrong with getting both?

orange
06-25-2010, 03:20 PM
I don't know if there was a net gain or a net loss. But, logic tells me that it would be the latter.

Then they don't need the new law. Great. They won't be disappointed when it's thrown out.

Donger
06-25-2010, 03:20 PM
Misread it.

Despite my initial misreading, if that law was so effective and the cause for the drop then why was an additional law needed in 2010?

Because not enough of them left, obviously.

Donger
06-25-2010, 03:21 PM
Then they don't need the new law. Great. They won't be disappointed when it's thrown out.

I would agree with you if there weren't any left. Apparently, there still are.

KC native
06-25-2010, 03:22 PM
What's wrong with getting both?

hey, BEP, Are the malls still full?

KC native
06-25-2010, 03:23 PM
Because not enough of them left, obviously.

You've officially moved into BEP territory and are making up narratives as you go along now.

Donger
06-25-2010, 03:26 PM
You've officially moved into BEP territory and are making up narratives as you go along now.

I don't know what that means and I don't really care to learn.

Some people obviously feel like having any illegals in Arizona is unacceptable, even after some left during the crackdown the article mentions. So, the 2010 law was enacted. Are you suggesting some other motive?

KC native
06-25-2010, 03:28 PM
I don't know what that means and I don't really care to learn.

Some people obviously feel like having any illegals in Arizona is unacceptable, even after some left during the crackdown the article mentions. So, the 2010 law was enacted. Are you suggesting some other motive?

Ah, the inevitable redirection.

mlyonsd
06-25-2010, 03:29 PM
Ah, the inevitable redirection.Oh the irony.

KC native
06-25-2010, 03:30 PM
Oh the irony.

Perhaps you should refresh yourself on the definition of irony.

Donger
06-25-2010, 03:32 PM
Ah, the inevitable redirection.

I'm merely responding/answering you and orange's question. If that's redirection, perhaps you shouldn't inquire?

Personally, the answer was so obvious that I was surprised it was asked. And, hence, why I asked if you think the people of Arizona has some motive other than "let's get rid of more of them."

I'd welcome your input, because I can't think of another possible motive.

Dallas Chief
06-25-2010, 03:35 PM
To be fair, you didn't comment on it at all either. You're kind of just doing what you're saying everyone else is doing.

Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner! Rep.

mlyonsd
06-25-2010, 03:45 PM
Perhaps you should refresh yourself on the definition of irony.

I don't think so. He's carried on a pretty clear conversation and answered everything you asked. Then when it was pretty clear his assumptions could be correct you call him out for redirecting. So the redirection call out is redirecting in itself.

orange
06-25-2010, 03:49 PM
Restrictionists insist, with some justification, that these laws are shrinking the illegal population. The larger reality is that border crossings track the economy. The recent downturn has meant fewer illegal entries and more immigrants going home. Before the law, Arizona's illegal population had fallen 18% in the past year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703465204575208382473306238.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read


And not just Arizona:

http://2parse.com/images/totalimmigration.jpg

That's the whole country. Even the states that didn't have AZ's crackdown.

On Border Violence Immigration In General, Truth Pales Compared to Ideas

Donger
06-25-2010, 03:53 PM
Restrictionists insist, with some justification, that these laws are shrinking the illegal population. The larger reality is that border crossings track the economy. The recent downturn has meant fewer illegal entries and more immigrants going home. Before the law, Arizona's illegal population had fallen 18% in the past year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703465204575208382473306238.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read


And not just Arizona:

http://2parse.com/images/totalimmigration.jpg

That's the whole country. Even the states that didn't have AZ's crackdown.

Good, let's keep the trend going, shall we? Unless, of course, you think that such crackdown laws encourage illegal immigration?

orange
06-25-2010, 03:56 PM
Good, let's keep the trend going, shall we? Unless, of course, you think that such crackdown laws encourage illegal immigration?

I think such crackdown laws just move them to other states. That's why a 50-state solution is necessary.

Otter
06-25-2010, 04:04 PM
Donger 10
KC Nitwit -2

http://carlos-hernandez.net/main/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/mk2_fatality1.png

You do have to admire his ability to take a beating over and over and over and over and over and over and over however.

patteeu
06-25-2010, 04:12 PM
So if their 2007 law got rid of all the illegals, why do they need the 2010 law?

Where did you get the idea that it got rid of all of them?

If you pass a law that puts an onerous tax on meat in an effort to get people to eat more vegetables, you might see some die-hard meat lovers leave your state. If you then pass a law that completely prohibits meat, eggs, and dairy products in order to force people all the way toward veganism, many others will follow the first wave of emigrants.

orange
06-25-2010, 04:29 PM
And if millions of meat lovers are leaving your state because your meat has gone foul, you can easily misinterpret it as having something to do with your tax.

And when in spite of those meat lovers leaving your state, you trump up hysterical charges of "meat lovers overrunning our state" for raw political purposes, you risk being called on your lies.

"We've been inundated with criminal activity. It's just -- it's been outrageous," Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer told Fox News.

"Crime is off the chart in this state," added Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, president of the Arizona Association of Sheriffs.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/04/29/border-states-dealing-illegal-immigrant-crime-data-suggests/

orange
06-25-2010, 04:35 PM
What we all know:

Gov. Jan Brewer said the majority of illegal immigrants coming into Arizona are being used as drug mules by cartels.

“We all know that the majority of the people that are coming to Arizona and trespassing are now becoming drug mules,” Brewer told reporters on June 25 following a speech at a Korean War commemoration ceremony. “The drug cartels have taken control of the immigration and illegal trespassing that we are seeing in the state of Arizona.”

Many illegal immigrants depart for the United States looking only for work, she said, but end up under the control of cartels.

“They are criminals. They’re breaking the law when they’re trespassing and they’re criminals when they pack the marijuana and the drugs on their backs,” she said.

Brewer’s remarks on the subject were an elaboration on comments she made during a June 15 debate between the four Republican candidates for governor. Candidate Matt Jette, who supported comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, said during the debate that most of the people who cross illegally into Arizona are “just trying to feed their families.”

In response, Brewer told Jette that the majority are not coming into the country to work. “We are a nation of laws and they’re coming across our border illegally,” she said to Jette.

A spokesman for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement said the agency did not have any statistics on the number of illegal border crossers who are apprehended by authorities.

http://azcapitoltimes.com/blog/2010/06/25/brewer-most-illegal-immigrants-are-drug-mules/


There's no data or anything; we all just know it.

patteeu
06-25-2010, 04:39 PM
And if millions of meat lovers are leaving your state because your meat has gone foul, you can easily misinterpret it as having something to do with your tax.

And when in spite of those meat lovers leaving your state, you trump up hysterical charges of "meat lovers overrunning our state" for raw political purposes, you risk being called on your lies.

"We've been inundated with criminal activity. It's just -- it's been outrageous," Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer told Fox News.

"Crime is off the chart in this state," added Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, president of the Arizona Association of Sheriffs.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/04/29/border-states-dealing-illegal-immigrant-crime-data-suggests/

I'm just explaining to you why someone might pass a 2nd law even if the first one was partially successful (or appeared to be partially successful). It seems obvious why someone would pass a 2nd law if they thought the first law was ineffective. Your response seems to be a non sequitur, but I'll go with the flow anyway.

Are you seriously trying to suggest that there isn't a significant criminal problem associated with the existing illegal immigrant population whether that population is currently growing or shrinking?

orange
06-25-2010, 04:44 PM
I'm just explaining to you why someone might pass a 2nd law even if the first one was partially successful (or appeared to be partially successful). It seems obvious why someone would pass a 2nd law if they thought the first law was ineffective. Your response seems to be a non sequitur, but I'll go with the flow anyway.

Are you seriously trying to suggest that there isn't a significant criminal problem associated with the existing illegal immigrant population whether that population is currently growing or shrinking?

I suggest that it's (criminal problem) no more prevalent among the illegal immigrant population than the population at large. I've seen nothing at all that says otherwise - beyond ridiculous unsupported claims like Brewer just made.

One might say that "the Truth Pales Compared to Ideas."

KC native
06-25-2010, 05:13 PM
I don't think so. He's carried on a pretty clear conversation and answered everything you asked. Then when it was pretty clear his assumptions could be correct you call him out for redirecting. So the redirection call out is redirecting in itself.

Um, not even close. His assumptions weren't correct. Keep trying though.

KC native
06-25-2010, 05:14 PM
Donger 10
KC Nitwit -2



You do have to admire his ability to take a beating over and over and over and over and over and over and over however.

Right, because making up false narratives about immigration ignore the data out there wins arguments. :rolleyes:

Keep living in your own world there buckaroo.

Taco John
06-25-2010, 05:30 PM
Holeeeeeeeee shit....

<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/WQp8M0bkarM&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xd0d0d0&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/WQp8M0bkarM&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xd0d0d0&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

Taco John
06-25-2010, 05:32 PM
I don't like the Arizona law one bit. But I agree with what the guy at the end of that video said: I don't blame them for searching for a solution. They know better how to handle their immigration problem than I do. I personally think they'd be better off eliminating federal welfare programs from their lands, but that's just me attacking the source and not the symptom.

LOCOChief
06-25-2010, 06:03 PM
Holeeeeeeeee shit....

<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/WQp8M0bkarM&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xd0d0d0&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/WQp8M0bkarM&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xd0d0d0&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

dirty kcnatives mother perhaps? No she doesn't appear to be a mexican.

How hard is it to figure out that those dirty illegal mexicans are all committing a crime by just being here? It wouldn't surprise me one bit if kcnative happens to be a dirty illegal.

The Mad Crapper
06-25-2010, 06:34 PM
I predict this will go well.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/us/20crime.html
On Border Violence, Truth Pales Compared to Ideas
By RANDAL C. ARCHIBOLD

When Representative Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat of Arizona, announced that the Obama administration would send as many as 1,200 additional National Guard troops to bolster security at the Mexican border, she held up a photograph of Robert Krentz, a mild-mannered rancher who was shot to death this year on his vast property. The authorities suspected that the culprit was linked to smuggling.

“Robert Krentz really is the face behind the violence at the U.S.-Mexico border,” Ms. Giffords said.

It is a connection that those who support stronger enforcement of immigration laws and tighter borders often make: rising crime at the border necessitates tougher enforcement.

But the rate of violent crime at the border, and indeed across Arizona, has been declining, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, as has illegal immigration, according to the Border Patrol. While thousands have been killed in Mexico’s drug wars, raising anxiety that the violence will spread to the United States, F.B.I. statistics show that Arizona is relatively safe.

That Mr. Krentz’s death nevertheless churned the emotionally charged immigration debate points to a fundamental truth: perception often trumps reality, sometimes affecting laws and society in the process.

Judith Gans, who studies immigration at the Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy at the University of Arizona, said that what social psychologists call self-serving perception bias seemed to be at play. Both sides in the immigration debate accept information that confirms their biases, she said, and discard, ignore or rationalize information that does not. There is no better example than the role of crime in Arizona’s tumultuous immigration debate.

“If an illegal immigrant commits a crime, this confirms our view that illegal immigrants are criminals,” Ms. Gans said. “If an illegal immigrant doesn’t commit a crime, either they just didn’t get caught or it’s a fluke of the situation.”

Ms. Gans noted that sponsors of Arizona’s controversial immigration enforcement law have made careers of promising to rid the state of illegal immigrants through tough legislation.

“Their repeated characterization of illegal immigrants as criminals — easy to do since they broke immigration laws — makes it easy for people to ignore statistics,” she said.

Moreover, crime statistics, however rosy, are abstract. It takes only one well-publicized crime, like Mr. Krentz’s shooting, to drive up fear.

It is also an election year, and crime and illegal immigration — and especially forging a link between the two — remain a potent boost for any campaign. Gov. Jan Brewer’s popularity, once in question over promoting a sales tax increase, surged after signing the immigration bill, which is known as SB 1070 but officially called the Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act.

No matter that manpower and technology are at unprecedented levels at the border, it may never be secure enough in Arizona’s hothouse political climate when Congressional seats, the governor’s office and other positions are at stake in the Aug. 24 primaries.

It took the Obama administration a few weeks to bow to that political reality and go from trumpeting the border as more secure than it had ever been to ordering National Guard troops to take up position there — most of them in Arizona, Mr. Obama assured Ms. Brewer in a private meeting — because it was not secure enough.

Crime figures, in fact, present a more mixed picture, with the likes of Russell Pearce, the Republican state senator behind the immigration enforcement law, playing up the darkest side while immigrant advocacy groups like Coalición de Derechos Humanos (Human Rights Coalition), based in Tucson, circulate news reports and studies showing that crime is not as bad as it may seem.

For instance, statistics show that even as Arizona’s population swelled, buoyed in part by illegal immigrants funneling across the border, violent crime rates declined, to 447 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2008, the most recent year for which comprehensive data is available from the F.B.I. In 2000, the rate was 532 incidents per 100,000.

Nationally, the crime rate declined to 455 incidents per 100,000 people, from 507 in 2000.

But the rate for property crime, the kind that people may experience most often, increased in the state, to 4,082 per 100,000 residents in 2008 from 3,682 in 2000. Preliminary data for 2009 suggests that this rate may also be falling in the state’s biggest cities.

What is harder to pin down is how much of the crime was committed by illegal immigrants.

Phoenix’s police chief, Jack Harris, who opposes the new law, said that about 13 percent of his department’s arrests are illegal immigrants, a number close to the estimated percentage of illegal immigrants in the local population. But the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office, which runs the jail for Phoenix and surrounding cities and is headed by Joe Arpaio, a fervent supporter of the law, has said that 19 percent of its inmates are illegal immigrants.

Scott Decker, a criminologist at Arizona State University, said a battery of studies have suggested that illegal immigrants commit fewer crimes, in part because they tend to come from interior cities and villages in their home country with low crime rates and generally try to keep out of trouble to not risk being sent home.

But he understood why people’s perceptions of crime might lag behind what the statistics show. “Hard as it is to change the crime rate, it may be more difficult to change public perceptions about the crime rate, particularly when those perceptions are linked to public events,” Mr. Decker said.

He added, “There is nothing more powerful than a story about a gruesome murder or assault that leads in the local news and drives public opinion that it is not safe anywhere.”

Kris Kobach, a University of Missouri law professor who helped write the Arizona immigration law, pointed to crimes like a wave of kidnappings related to the drug and human smuggling business in Phoenix, something Ms. Brewer herself noted when she signed the law.

Although the reports have dipped in the past couple of years, the police responded to 315 such cases last year.

“That’s scary to people, and people react to that all over the state,” Mr. Kobach said. “They are concerned. ‘That might happen in my part of the city eventually.’ ”

Terry Goddard, the state attorney general, who does not support the immigration law, said the drop in violent crime rates might not reflect the continued violence, often unreported, that is associated with smuggling organizations.

Mr. Goddard said he doubted that the immigration law would put a dent in the smuggling-related crime that grabs attention in the state. For that reason, Mr. Goddard, who is running to be the Democratic nominee for governor in the primary, said he backed the deployment of National Guard troops and supports increasing manpower and spending on police and prosecutor anti-smuggling units.

Brian L. Livingston, executive director of the Arizona Police Association, said he would prefer more attention on the border, too. But until then, he said, laws like Arizona’s are necessary.

“We know the majority of people crossing across are not criminal, but unfortunately some criminal elements are embedded with them,” he said, adding, “Governor Brewer gets that.”

As Ms. Brewer put it just after signing the bill: “We cannot sacrifice our safety to the murderous greed of drug cartels. We cannot stand idly by as drop houses, kidnappings and violence compromise our quality of life.”

Waiter, my wife would like a glass of water. Thanks.

ClevelandBronco
06-25-2010, 06:52 PM
Holeeeeeeeee shit....

<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/WQp8M0bkarM&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xd0d0d0&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/WQp8M0bkarM&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xd0d0d0&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

Miss Teen South Carolina got fat.

patteeu
06-25-2010, 07:31 PM
I suggest that it's (criminal problem) no more prevalent among the illegal immigrant population than the population at large. I've seen nothing at all that says otherwise - beyond ridiculous unsupported claims like Brewer just made.

One might say that "the Truth Pales Compared to Ideas."

Didn't you read the article? It pointed to strong evidence that in some parts of AZ, illegals contribute to the overall crime rate at a disproportionate level and that while overall crime is declining, some types of crime are on the rise. I think it would be wrong to suggest that any given illegal is more prone to crime than a person legally here, but I'm confident that there are certain segments of the illegal community causing increases in some types of crime (identity theft leaps to mind).

mlyonsd
06-25-2010, 10:08 PM
Um, not even close. His assumptions weren't correct. Keep trying though.

Uh-huh. It appeared to me that he backed up his assumptions with data and thoughtful interpretation. But whatever. You know everything, you've pointed it out on multiple occasions.

Now here's a true redirection.

If I lived in AZ why would I give a flying F to what anyone that lives outside the state thinks?

Donger
06-26-2010, 12:57 PM
Um, not even close. His assumptions weren't correct. Keep trying though.

What assumption? That illegals have been leaving, and perhaps that is why violent crime has decreased?

KC native
06-26-2010, 03:01 PM
I predict this will go well.

[
For instance, statistics show that even as Arizona’s population swelled, buoyed in part by illegal immigrants funneling across the border, violent crime rates declined, to 447 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2008, the most recent year for which comprehensive data is available from the F.B.I. In 2000, the rate was 532 incidents per 100,000.

Nationally, the crime rate declined to 455 incidents per 100,000 people, from 507 in 2000.

But the rate for property crime, the kind that people may experience most often, increased in the state, to 4,082 per 100,000 residents in 2008 from 3,682 in 2000. Preliminary data for 2009 suggests that this rate may also be falling in the state’s biggest cities....

Scott Decker, a criminologist at Arizona State University, said a battery of studies have suggested that illegal immigrants commit fewer crimes, in part because they tend to come from interior cities and villages in their home country with low crime rates and generally try to keep out of trouble to not risk being sent home.

But he understood why people’s perceptions of crime might lag behind what the statistics show. “Hard as it is to change the crime rate, it may be more difficult to change public perceptions about the crime rate, particularly when those perceptions are linked to public events,” Mr. Decker said.

He added, “There is nothing more powerful than a story about a gruesome murder or assault that leads in the local news and drives public opinion that it is not safe anywhere.”


Didn't you read the article? It pointed to strong evidence that in some parts of AZ, illegals contribute to the overall crime rate at a disproportionate level and that while overall crime is declining, some types of crime are on the rise. I think it would be wrong to suggest that any given illegal is more prone to crime than a person legally here, but I'm confident that there are certain segments of the illegal community causing increases in some types of crime (identity theft leaps to mind).

Apparently you didn't read the article because the author actually suggests the opposite.

KC native
06-26-2010, 03:03 PM
Uh-huh. It appeared to me that he backed up his assumptions with data and thoughtful interpretation. But whatever. You know everything, you've pointed it out on multiple occasions.

Now here's a true redirection.

If I lived in AZ why would I give a flying F to what anyone that lives outside the state thinks?

He presented no data. You need to refresh yourself with the definition of irony as well as critical reading skills.

KC native
06-26-2010, 03:04 PM
What assumption? That illegals have been leaving, and perhaps that is why violent crime has decreased?

Well, unfortunately for you, you have no data to back your assertion. Like I said, you are venturing into BEP make it up as you go along territory.

Garcia Bronco
06-26-2010, 04:32 PM
IScott Decker, a criminologist at Arizona State University, said a battery of studies have suggested that illegal immigrants commit fewer crimes,



LOL. They are criminals just for being here illegally and stealing from tax payers.

patteeu
06-26-2010, 07:14 PM
Apparently you didn't read the article because the author actually suggests the opposite.

That's not really true. First, I'm referencing some of the facts he recited, not his conclusions. Second, I'm talking about a narrower point than he is and, in fact, the facts he mentions that I'm relying on are actually included specifically because they go AGAINST his overall conclusion. You shouldn't be lecturing anyone on reading comprehension.

mlyonsd
06-27-2010, 09:17 AM
He presented no data. You need to refresh yourself with the definition of irony as well as critical reading skills.

BTW, I like the way the article you started the thread with makes this claim:

It is a connection that those who support stronger enforcement of immigration laws and tighter borders often make: rising crime at the border necessitates tougher enforcement.


...and then never attempts to back that claim up with facts.

Well written. Nice find.

Donger
06-27-2010, 09:39 AM
Well, unfortunately for you, you have no data to back your assertion. Like I said, you are venturing into BEP make it up as you go along territory.

Huh? Do you doubt that the number of illegal immigrants in Arizona has dropped since 2008?

Saul Good
06-27-2010, 11:40 AM
Restrictionists insist, with some justification, that these laws are shrinking the illegal population. The larger reality is that border crossings track the economy. The recent downturn has meant fewer illegal entries and more immigrants going home. Before the law, Arizona's illegal population had fallen 18% in the past year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703465204575208382473306238.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read


And not just Arizona:

http://2parse.com/images/totalimmigration.jpg

That's the whole country. Even the states that didn't have AZ's crackdown.

On Border Violence Immigration In General, Truth Pales Compared to Ideas

I beat my wife 10 times yesterday, but I only beat her 8 times today. We're cool, right?