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View Full Version : Royals What's "wrong" with Greinke, and a Royals scouting report from STL point of view


OnTheWarpath58
06-25-2010, 11:30 AM
Royals hosting the I-70 Series this weekend, local columnist Bernie Miklasz breaks down Greinke and gives his takes on the Royals.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/article_d1b92ff4-8076-11df-b8ba-0017a4a78c22.html


* WHAT'S "WRONG" with ZACK GREINKE?

He'll start against the Cardinals Friday night and enters with a 2-8 record with a 3.94 ERA. Greinke won the AL Cy Young award last season by going 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA for a hideous KC Royals team. Obviously there's been a drop in performance, but it isn't as if the dude has turned into Sidney Ponson. First of all, don't draw too much meaning from that 2-8 record. The Royals don't score many runs for Greinke; only 33 while he's been on the mound in his 15 starts. They've scored two runs or fewer in 9 of his 15 starts and have been shut out in 5 of the 15 starts. The run-scoring average of 3.09 for Greinke is the 4th-lowest in the AL. So of course he's going to be tagged with unfair "losses."

So why is the ERA up? There are a few things we can identify: (1) the contact rate against him is up by around 8 perccent from last season. (2) the HR rate is way up; 10.7 percent of the fly balls he's allowed have gone over the wall; last season that rate was 4.5 percent. He allowed 11 homers in 229 IP last season and already has been popped for 13 homers in 96 innings this year. (3) Zack's swing-and-miss rate has dropped 6 percent from last seson. (4) Accordingly, his strikeout rate is down to 7.8 per nine innings from a K rate of 9.5 % in '09.

And what is behind all of this? It seems that Greinke's fastball isn't as imposing as last season. According to FX data, it's averaging 92.8 mph this season, down from 93.7 mph from '09. And the slider isn't as sharp, either. According to FanGraphs.com, Greinke's fastball had a value of about 25.8 runs last season; this year it's 2.3 runs. The value of the slider has fallen from 20.1 runs to 5.6. So his two most important pitches have become more hittable. And Greinke has become more predictable in using his fastball; he's throwing it, first-pitch, to RH batters 65 percent of the time this season compared to 58 percent last year. One other clue about the reduced effectiveness of the fastball-slider combo. Though Greinke's walk rate is about the same as a year ago, he's throwing more pitches out of the strike zone, and batters are going after those pitches and making contact much more often. So even when Greinke is trying to get guys to chase his stuff isn't as nasty. They're reaching it.

* SCOUTING THE ROYALS:

30-43 record, 4th place AL Central, 10.5 games out ... the Royals have lost more games (2,128) than any team in baseball since winning the World Series in 1985 ... they're 18-20 since former Brewers manager Ned Yost took over ... GM Dayton Moore is under fire for puzzling free-agent signings of veteran, replacement-level stop-gap players such as Jason Kendall, Scott Podsednik, Willie Bloomquist, Rick Ankiel, Gil Meche, Jose Guillen, Kyle Farnsworth, etc. The Royals should be going all-in with young players and prospects but instead are playing and paying mediocre veterans and blocking the path of guys such as Alex Gordon, who was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2005 MLB draft. Gordon is hitting .333 / .457 / .577 with 10 homers at Class AAA Omaha. Why is he there? What's the point? Moore deserves credit for retooling the KC player-development system, which is showing signs of promise. But he's making the mistake of drafting good players and not taking the next step, which is to build around them.

Offensively, the Royals are 9th in the AL in runs at 4.45 per game. They lead the league with a .280 batting average, but that's misleading; they also lead the AL in singles, and we point that out because this is a team that has the lowest walk rate in the AL, and is 9th in slugging. So those singles tend to be harmless. It's a team that takes an aggressive approach and puts the ball in play more often than any other AL team; 47.1 percent of the KC swings end up in play; that's the highest percentage in the AL. And Royals' hitters have the league's lowest swing-and-miss rate.... Guillen is one of the AL's better DHs with 13 homers and 44 RBIs ... David DeJesus is a fine outfielder who gets on base (.394 OBP). 1B Billy Butler is a good hitter. But it isn't an intimidating offense.Basically the Royals try to ping you to death with singles.

The KC rotation ranks next to last in the AL with a 5.16 ERA and the OPS (.776) against the starters is the second-highest in the league. The bullpen is 7th in the AL with a 4.10 ERA and has allowed 33.6 percent of inherited runners to score. The Royals, like the Cardinals, are a poor base-running team; they're ranked 27th in base-running effectiveness by Baseball Prospectus and have lost 58 runners on the bases ... defensively the Royals are ranked 21st in efficiency by Baseball Prospectus.


Thoughts?

teedubya
06-25-2010, 11:33 AM
Grienke also ALWAYS pitched with Miguel Olivo... I think letting him go and getting Jason Kendall was pretty retarded.

CaliforniaChief
06-25-2010, 11:34 AM
I just appreciate you putting numbers to the hell we've been living in for the last 25 years. Thanks, buddy. :D

Hays
06-25-2010, 11:48 AM
clean out the front office and the coaching staff. Time to purge

and as Bernie says why are the young guys not getting time to play?

Sure-Oz
06-25-2010, 11:51 AM
This is a huge series for Royals fans, the cards dont give a crap

alanm
06-25-2010, 11:59 AM
Grienke also ALWAYS pitched with Miguel Olivo... I think letting him go and getting Jason Kendall was pretty retarded.Olivo is having a hell of a year so far for the Rockies at the plate.
He's also having a hell of a year behind the plate. On the ballgame last night they said he was throwing out 51% of base runners trying to steal.

Sure-Oz
06-25-2010, 12:04 PM
Kendall is probably the worst signing since well the last one

SnakeXJones
06-25-2010, 12:08 PM
Not this Olvio shit again

alanm
06-25-2010, 12:08 PM
Kendall is probably the worst signing since well the last oneOlivo's new favorite pitcher is Umbaldo Jimenez who's 13-1 with a 1.60 ERA.

alanm
06-25-2010, 12:10 PM
Not this Olvio shit againYep. :D

SnakeXJones
06-25-2010, 12:12 PM
Olvio still cant hit worth a damn away from coors field

alanm
06-25-2010, 12:14 PM
Olvio still cant hit worth a damn away from coors fieldMaybe it's a mental thing because it isn't the balls anymore. Their kept in a humidor before games. Hell there's guys on the Royals who can't hit anywhere. :shake:

CaliforniaChief
06-25-2010, 12:24 PM
It's not beyond conceivable that both catchers that the Royals released could be All-Stars in each league. That would be crazy.

CoMoChief
06-25-2010, 12:40 PM
Royals hosting the I-70 Series this weekend, local columnist Bernie Miklasz breaks down Greinke and gives his takes on the Royals.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/article_d1b92ff4-8076-11df-b8ba-0017a4a78c22.html





Thoughts?

"The Royals basically try to Ping you to death."

Nothing is further from the truth by this comment. You can't win in today's league by playing small ball. I can't remember the last time we had a 30+ HR guy.....Dye??? Beltran?

OnTheWarpath58
06-25-2010, 12:45 PM
"The Royals basically try to Ping you to death."

Nothing is further from the truth by this comment. You can't win in today's league by playing small ball. I can't remember the last time we had a 30+ HR guy.....Dye??? Beltran?

http://i41.tinypic.com/2gwgp4j.jpg

So which is it?

The comment is baseless, or you're going to defend it?

Kraus
06-25-2010, 12:50 PM
"The Royals basically try to Ping you to death."

Nothing is further from the truth by this comment. You can't win in today's league by playing small ball. I can't remember the last time we had a 30+ HR guy.....Dye??? Beltran?

:spock:

gblowfish
06-25-2010, 12:52 PM
We've lost the most games in MLB since 1985?

No wonder I feel like I've taken an Ike Turner Beatdown when I watch the Royals. Battered Baseball Fan Syndrome. A truly abusive relationship.

|Zach|
06-25-2010, 12:53 PM
Hitting up some crown seats on Sunday. Looking forward to the game, I haven't seen the Royals since like....2007 I believe.

Sure-Oz
06-25-2010, 12:55 PM
"The Royals basically try to Ping you to death."

Nothing is CLOSER to the truth by this comment. You can't win in today's league by playing small ball. I can't remember the last time we had a 30+ HR guy.....Dye??? Beltran?

FYP

alanm
06-25-2010, 01:04 PM
Olvio still cant hit worth a damn away from coors fieldRegardless, He's still hitting .296 with 10 HR's and 33 RBI's

Reaper16
06-25-2010, 01:06 PM
http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e57/Thereaper16/TyCobbGiveaShit-ff4.png

gblowfish
06-25-2010, 01:09 PM
Hitting up some crown seats on Sunday. Looking forward to the game, I haven't seen the Royals since like....2007 I believe.

Funny. I just got off the phone with a buddy of mine who works at KCI. He was given 4 free seats to the Dry Duck seats in Left Field for Sunday by one of his vendors, so I'm going for free on Sunday.

Happens every year. I have people just give me free Royals tickets. Amazing.

petegz28
06-25-2010, 01:10 PM
Greinke has taken a step back. His control isn't what it was last year and teams have made an adjustment on him. He has to re-adjust to them. That being said, you can't tell me this kid isn't pressing due to lack of run support. When you are getting less than 3 runs of support per outing you will press. Forcing strikeouts and groundballs is how you end up with giving up walks and homeruns. And then there is the defense. It is obligatory for Yuni and others to committ at least 1-2 errors a game when Zack is on the mound.

Then there is the wild card. Jason Kendall. Does he not call a good game for Zack? You would think Zack to be in a position by now to know pretty much what he wants to throw. If Kendall calls for something otherwise does Zack not have the confidence and therefore becomes tentative on the pitch, throwing off his mechanics and what not?

With Kendall batting 2nd Zack knows he pretty much has to have a spotless 1st inning or he will be in the whole quickly adding more to the "pressing". He knows he has a tight window because of his team's lack of run production.

It's one thing to expect your ace to go out and pitch a good, low scoring game. It's another to expect to pitch a damn near perfect game because your team can't score runs.

alanm
06-25-2010, 01:12 PM
We've lost the most games in MLB since 1985?

No wonder I feel like I've taken an Ike Turner Beatdown when I watch the Royals. Battered Baseball Fan Syndrome. A truly abusive relationship.To be fair I've not been able to see the Royals much since I lived in Omaha. I get the Rockies here on the tube and that's all I get to see since MLB TV sees fit to black out the Royals. They used to carry the Royals on the radio but they switched to the Rockies 4 yrs ago. I'll still be a Royals fan. Have been since 1969. But I fear the Rockies are starting to borg me into their sphere. :(
The Royals are just cursed for some reason. Maybe they need to have a voodoo priestess come out and exorcise the demons. Something. :shrug:

petegz28
06-25-2010, 01:17 PM
To be fair I've not been able to see the Royals much since I lived in Omaha. I get the Rockies here on the tube and that's all I get to see since MLB TV sees fit to black out the Royals. They used to carry the Royals on the radio but they switched to the Rockies 4 yrs ago. I'll still be a Royals fan. Have been since 1969. But I fear the Rockies are starting to borg me into their sphere. :(
The Royals are just cursed for some reason. Maybe they need to have a voodoo priestess come out and exorcise the demons. Something. :shrug:

It's more or less been 15-20 years of shitt ownership that doesn't want to spend money on talent. We had Beltran, Dye and Damon for an outfield. Just about any team in baseball would kill for such a trio. I understand we couldn't keep all 3. But dumping all 3? And for what? Teahen and Buck?

This is what irks the fuck out of me about this team. We get a good player, either through FA or from our farm system and we trade them away as soon as they will cost us some $ for average to below average players who are more pocketbook friendly. This has been the cycle since the early 90's and will keep repeating until Glass figures out that good players cost good money.

SnakeXJones
06-25-2010, 01:20 PM
Greinke has taken a step back. His control isn't what it was last year and teams have made an adjustment on him. He has to re-adjust to them. That being said, you can't tell me this kid isn't pressing due to lack of run support. When you are getting less than 3 runs of support per outing you will press. Forcing strikeouts and groundballs is how you end up with giving up walks and homeruns. And then there is the defense. It is obligatory for Yuni and others to committ at least 1-2 errors a game when Zack is on the mound.

Then there is the wild card. Jason Kendall. Does he not call a good game for Zack? You would think Zack to be in a position by now to know pretty much what he wants to throw. If Kendall calls for something otherwise does Zack not have the confidence and therefore becomes tentative on the pitch, throwing off his mechanics and what not?

With Kendall batting 2nd Zack knows he pretty much has to have a spotless 1st inning or he will be in the whole quickly adding more to the "pressing". He knows he has a tight window because of his team's lack of run production.

It's one thing to expect your ace to go out and pitch a good, low scoring game. It's another to expect to pitch a damn near perfect game because your team can't score runs. Only thing I see wrong was his control early in the season hasnt been much of an issue since but its mostly been his pitching locations

alanm
06-25-2010, 01:28 PM
It's more or less been 15-20 years of shitt ownership that doesn't want to spend money on talent. We had Beltran, Dye and Damon for an outfield. Just about any team in baseball would kill for such a trio. I understand we couldn't keep all 3. But dumping all 3? And for what? Teahen and Buck?

This is what irks the **** out of me about this team. We get a good player, either through FA or from our farm system and we trade them away as soon as they will cost us some $ for average to below average players who are more pocketbook friendly. This has been the cycle since the early 90's and will keep repeating until Glass figures out that good players cost good money.That and the fact that they let guys rot in AAA. You'll never convince me that guys down in AAA and AA for that matter aren't better than the shit they put on the field in KC. :shake:

gblowfish
06-25-2010, 02:15 PM
They keep the "future stars" down in the minors to slow their service time before they can go Free Agent. Sometimes they ruin the player in AA or AAA by leaving them there too long. There's no reason to be paying guys like Guillen, Ankiel and Kendall. Play Gordon. Play Kila at first. DH Butler. Play Pena to see what he's got. Trade all the guys over the age of 32.

OmahaChief
06-25-2010, 02:30 PM
To be fair I've not been able to see the Royals much since I lived in Omaha. I get the Rockies here on the tube and that's all I get to see since MLB TV sees fit to black out the Royals. They used to carry the Royals on the radio but they switched to the Rockies 4 yrs ago. I'll still be a Royals fan. Have been since 1969. But I fear the Rockies are starting to borg me into their sphere. :(
The Royals are just cursed for some reason. Maybe they need to have a voodoo priestess come out and exorcise the demons. Something. :shrug:

I live in Omaha too and get almost every Royals game. I take it you don't have Cox as your cable provider? They are on Fox Sports Midwest nearly every game. Channel 745 in HD and 47 in digital.

alanm
06-25-2010, 02:35 PM
I live in Omaha too and get almost every Royals game. I take it you don't have Cox as your cable provider? They are on Fox Sports Midwest nearly every game. Channel 745 in HD and 47 in digital.I'm out in Scottsbluff. Have been for almost 15 yrs now. :)
We only get the Rockies here. Royals are blacked out on every thing unless it's WGN or espn. ROFLROFLROFL Like their going to be on espn anytime soon.

CoMoChief
06-25-2010, 03:24 PM
FYP

ROFL oops....just caught that......obviously thats what i mean. my bad

okiedokieokoye
06-25-2010, 03:26 PM
At least we just signed Christian Colon!