PDA

View Full Version : Chiefs Football Outsiders predict KC as Division Champs


KCrockaholic
07-09-2010, 07:49 PM
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2010/7/9/1561313/football-outsiders-predicts-kc

The Chiefs are getting some love from the football stats gurus at Football Outsiders. From the 2010 edition of the Football Outsiders' Almanac...

There are a lot of numbers in this book that will surprise readers. One of the most surprising, though, is the figure that stands next to the “2010 Mean Projection” line in the box on this page: 8.9. Our projection system suggests that the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs will win those 8.9 games despite winning a total of ten games over the past three seasons. It projects that the Chiefs will shockingly win the AFC West, giving them a home playoff game for the first time since 2003, when Priest Holmes was still in his pomp.

Star-divide

Some key points in the article...

* Schedule strength - The Chiefs have the easiest predicted strength of schedule out of all 32 teams (-9.1% DVOA).

* Elite running game - Jamaal Charles turned out to be an absolute stud (like FO predicted last year), and their running game only got better with the addition of Thomas Jones. Another factor is the improvement of the offensive line with the addition of Ryan Lilja and Casey Wiegmann.

* Healthy team - The Chiefs have been the 4th healthiest team in the NFL over the past three years (according to the FO adjusted games lost metric). Haley's conditioning program (and the influx of young players since 2008) has to have contributed to this.

* Addressed biggest weaknesses in offseason - FO picked safety as the biggest need on the defensive side and center as the biggest need on the offensive side. Both of these positions were improved over the offseason with the additions of Wiegmann and Berry (although Wiegmann is obviously a short-term solution).

* Stud players - FO picks Jamaal Charles and Tamba Hali as the biggest difference-makers for the Chiefs. They are projecting Tamba Hali to have a season similar to Elvis Dumervil's 2009.

* Weak competition in AFC West - San Diego is a one-dimensional team powered by a stellar passing offense which should regress to the mean (especially with the loss of Jackson). Denver went only 8-8 last year and has gutted their offense under Josh McDaniels. Oakland is, as always, Oakland.

I know it's still early, but it's nice to see the Chiefs getting some attention. I agree with pretty much everything they have in their article - it seems like we're on the right track.

KCrockaholic
07-09-2010, 07:50 PM
"Haley's conditioning program (and the influx of young players since 2008) has to have contributed to this."

This part is kind of stupid to say when Todd has only been coach of KC for 1 season.

Pioli Zombie
07-09-2010, 07:55 PM
Even if the Chiefs won the division the Mecca types will say "So what? We didn't win the Super Bowl" and suck out the joy from the whole thing

KCrockaholic
07-09-2010, 08:01 PM
Nah he would just blame it on the easy schedule and say we backed our win into it....Although that may be true, to win the AFC West would be an extremely special thing to do in Haley's 2nd year.

milkman
07-09-2010, 08:08 PM
Even if the Chiefs won the division the Mecca types will say "So what? We didn't win the Super Bowl" and suck out the joy from the whole thing

I think the schedule is going to be tougher than everyone thinks it will be.

If the Chiefs win the division, that would be a sign of positive progress, even in a weak division.

I'd be suprised if they win more than 6 games.

teedubya
07-09-2010, 08:10 PM
Ah, KC is playing KUpcakes this year eh?

notorious
07-09-2010, 08:15 PM
[url]
Healthy team - The Chiefs have been the 4th healthiest team in the NFL over the past three years


Our players do not have the speed nor the hitting power to injure or get injured.

kaplin42
07-09-2010, 08:51 PM
If the Chiefs hit .500 this year, then I will be happy. I expect by next year we should start seeing divedends of this whole game plan.

boogblaster
07-09-2010, 08:57 PM
9 wins or better .. i hope .....

Von Dumbass
07-09-2010, 09:04 PM
Football Outsiders predicted Denver to finish last in the division with 4 wins last year. They also predicted a Bears/Chargers Super Bowl with the Vikings, Packers, and Saints missing the playoffs. LMAO

Von Dumbass
07-09-2010, 09:07 PM
Here is what their projections were last year in their Pro Football Prospectus.

NFC North
Chicago Bears - 10.5
Minnesota Vikings - 8.8
Green Bay Packers - 7.4
Detroit Lions - 5.8

NFC South
Carolina Panthers - 8.3
New Orleans Saints - 7.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.2
Atlanta Falcons - 6.6

NFC East
New York Giants - 10.0
Philadelphia Eagles - 9.3
Dallas Cowboys - 8.0
Washington Redskins - 7.8

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks - 9.9
St. Louis Rams - 8.2
San Franciso 49ers - 5.7
Arizona Cardinals - 5.6

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9.6
Baltimore Ravens - 8.8
Cincinnati Bengals - 6.9
Cleveland Browns - 6.6

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts - 11.5
Jacksonville Jaguars - 10.2
Tennessee Titans - 9.3
Houston Texans - 6.9

AFC East
New England Patriots - 11.4
Miami Dolphins - 6.4
New York Jets - 6.2
Buffalo Bills - 5.3

AFC West
San Diego Chargers - 12.5
Kansas City Chiefs - 6.7
Oakland Raiders - 6.0
Denver Broncos - 4.9

Super Bowl: San Diego Chargers over Chicago Bears

MahiMike
07-09-2010, 09:25 PM
I'm sticking by my 8-8 record but it wouldn't surprise me if we won the AFC west.

LaChapelle
07-09-2010, 09:27 PM
Know Mo
Have you ever been the Attorney General of Missouri

RedNeckRaider
07-09-2010, 09:33 PM
I'm sticking by my 8-8 record but it wouldn't surprise me if we won the AFC west.

That is the fun thing about it. One good team on the way down and three teams with high hopes. The west is open this year. The Bolts are still the favorite but by no means a heavy favorite ;)

Halfcan
07-09-2010, 09:35 PM
We have to beat SD at home-they kicked the shit out of us last year-with basically the same team-plus we have lost our last to Home Openers to the faders-so i will belive a little more if we squeek out a win to start the season against the chargers.

Chief_in_Commander
07-10-2010, 02:57 AM
Here is what their projections were last year in their Pro Football Prospectus.

NFC North
Chicago Bears - 10.5
Minnesota Vikings - 8.8
Green Bay Packers - 7.4
Detroit Lions - 5.8

NFC South
Carolina Panthers - 8.3
New Orleans Saints - 7.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.2
Atlanta Falcons - 6.6

NFC East
New York Giants - 10.0
Philadelphia Eagles - 9.3
Dallas Cowboys - 8.0
Washington Redskins - 7.8

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks - 9.9
St. Louis Rams - 8.2
San Franciso 49ers - 5.7
Arizona Cardinals - 5.6

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9.6
Baltimore Ravens - 8.8
Cincinnati Bengals - 6.9
Cleveland Browns - 6.6

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts - 11.5
Jacksonville Jaguars - 10.2
Tennessee Titans - 9.3
Houston Texans - 6.9

AFC East
New England Patriots - 11.4
Miami Dolphins - 6.4
New York Jets - 6.2
Buffalo Bills - 5.3

AFC West
San Diego Chargers - 12.5
Kansas City Chiefs - 6.7
Oakland Raiders - 6.0
Denver Broncos - 4.9

Super Bowl: San Diego Chargers over Chicago Bears

This sure makes me like being picked to do well......i count maybe two accurate predictions

Hog Farmer
07-10-2010, 05:17 AM
I fear the Raiders more than the Chargers. Denver is gonna stay a confused team as long as Mcfistpump is there. Our Ol is the key to success this year as we have probably the NFL's best one/two punch in the backfield and Bowe/Chambers/Moeki catching passes.

Berry is gonna completely change our defense.

Yes we have a real shot.

MadMax
07-10-2010, 05:32 AM
I think the schedule is going to be tougher than everyone thinks it will be.

If the Chiefs win the division, that would be a sign of positive progress, even in a weak division.

I'd be suprised if they win more than 6 games.



I also go for 6 wins...Always hope for better but maybe just maybe they will draft a QB:banghead:

chiefzilla1501
07-10-2010, 06:25 AM
I think the schedule is going to be tougher than everyone thinks it will be.

If the Chiefs win the division, that would be a sign of positive progress, even in a weak division.

I'd be suprised if they win more than 6 games.

I think it also goes without saying that the division has the same exact schedule, except for 2 games, so it's not like there's some major scheduling advantage within the division.

Rausch
07-10-2010, 07:33 AM
I think it also goes without saying that the division has the same exact schedule, except for 2 games, so it's not like there's some major scheduling advantage within the division.

Oakland doesn't get to play Oakland twice...

Nzoner
07-10-2010, 08:49 AM
We have to beat SD at home-they kicked the shit out of us last year-with basically the same team-plus we have lost our last to Home Openers to the faders-so i will belive a little more if we squeek out a win to start the season against the chargers.

Don't disregard what emotion can do for an underdog and Arrowhead in the prime time lights of MNF is going to be full of emotion.See Bills vs. KC 1991

OnTheWarpath58
07-10-2010, 08:59 AM
Don't disregard what emotion can do for an underdog and Arrowhead in the prime time lights of MNF is going to be full of emotion.See Bills vs. KC 1991

Well, this will be the best chance they've had in a few years.

Win or lose, MNF is going to tell us a lot about this club. If they can't at least stay competitive on the national stage against a division rival who's missing two of their best players, it's going to be another long year.

For as much as I despise Matt Cassel, I don't think the offense is going to be an issue this year. Weis will make a point to design gameplans that mask Cassel's deficiencies.

I'm not sure how RAC can mask the fact that our run defense is terrible and we have no pass rush.

Deberg_1990
07-10-2010, 09:45 AM
If the rebuild is going as planned, we should win 7-9 games.

Ill continue to state it all depends on Matt Cassels development.

Red Brooklyn
07-10-2010, 10:00 AM
If the rebuild is going as planned, we should win 7-9 games.

:thumb:

Nzoner
07-10-2010, 10:04 AM
If the rebuild is going as planned, we should win 7-9 games.

Ill continue to state it all depends on Matt Cassels development.

I bet a Raider fan 2 months ago that KC would win 7,he was mouthing off etc. but when I said I'd put a $100 on it he quieted down and said he'd go $25 to which I had to bust his balls about not being so confident now.

Red Brooklyn
07-10-2010, 10:06 AM
I bet a Raider fan 2 months ago that KC would win 7,he was mouthing off etc. but when I said I'd put a $100 on it he quieted down and said he'd go $25 to which I had to bust his balls about not being so confident now.

:clap:

milkman
07-10-2010, 10:21 AM
For as much as I despise Matt Cassel, I don't think the offense is going to be an issue this year. Weis will make a point to design gameplans that mask Cassel's deficiencies.

That is exactly what concerns me.

milkman
07-10-2010, 10:23 AM
I bet a Raider fan 2 months ago that KC would win 7,he was mouthing off etc. but when I said I'd put a $100 on it he quieted down and said he'd go $25 to which I had to bust his balls about not being so confident now.

I believe the Raiders are going to be much improved, but I wouldn't be confident enough in that belief that I would bet money on it.

Can't say I blame him, becayse the truth is, you just can't know.

OnTheWarpath58
07-10-2010, 11:13 AM
That is exactly what concerns me.

Me too.

Even if you think the kid is capable of developing, (I obviously don't, but) he's not going to under Weis - because Charlie is smart enough to not ask the kid to do things he can't do.

My concern is that teams realize very quickly that we're nothing more than a dink-and-dunk passing attack that can't take advantage deep when the defense is sitting on the short stuff.

-King-
07-10-2010, 11:14 AM
Well, this will be the best chance they've had in a few years.

Win or lose, MNF is going to tell us a lot about this club. If they can't at least stay competitive on the national stage against a division rival who's missing two of their best players, it's going to be another long year.

For as much as I despise Matt Cassel, I don't think the offense is going to be an issue this year. Weis will make a point to design gameplans that mask Cassel's deficiencies.

I'm not sure how RAC can mask the fact that our run defense is terrible and we have no pass rush.

Whos the secon player? VJ and who else? I think McNeill will resign by reg season.
Posted via Mobile Device